https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-41749220-ebd7-11f0-a6fb-7f30845bd6a6.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmacro&stream=business

Notwithstanding the solid December private-sector data, the November Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) numbers pointed to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium persisting through the fall.

Zoom in: 

The number of posted job openings fell by 303,000 in November, the Labor Department said, bringing its rate down two ticks, to 4.3%, matching an August recent low.

• Hiring also fell, by 253,000 positions, similarly driving the hiring rate down to 3.2%, matching the August low for this expansion.
• The news was considerably better on layoffs and discharges, with the number falling by 163,000 and the rate by a tenth.
• “Employers are reluctant to make moves, as uncertainty around tariffs and inflation still linger,” ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud wrote in a note, adding that “workers are staying put, with few opportunities emerging for job switching” and many choosing stability.

Between the lines: 

For all the talk of corporate head count reductions, companies — at least through November — were more in a mode of freezing hiring and reducing job openings than outright firing people.

• It amounts to a labor market that is holding up OK for those who have a job, but is brutal for those looking for a job.

The bottom line: 

The open question for 2026 is whether the green shoots evident in December private employment data presage a stabilization or an improvement in employers’ willingness to hire more workers — and not just exercise caution in firing.