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Economists are growing more certain both the U.S. and the world are going to have a recession in 2020, Axios markets editor Dion Rabouin reports.

The big question: How bad will it be?

• The answer depends on how quickly the outbreak can be contained and how fast people regain confidence to participate in activities they once enjoyed.

What’s happening: Economists and investment banks continue to write down their expectations for growth this year, as more economic activity is halted “until further notice.”

• The shutdown of the NCAA’s annual March Madness basketball tournament and Austin’s South by Southwest festival are just two examples of mass gatherings that were expected to generate billions of dollars.
• And that’s to say nothing of the millions of dollars that Chinese and European tourists would have spent, but who are temporarily banned or reluctant to come to the United States.

The bottom line: Businesses had pulled back on spending even before the year began, as a result of the U.S.-China trade war. That left consumer spending as the only thing holding up the economy, and the COVID-19 outbreak will kick that leg out from under us for an unknown period of time.

Go deeper: Listen to Dion discuss the risk of a recession with Dan Primack on the Pro Rata podcast.