Voters Soured on Key GOP Senators During Height of ACA Repeal Push

https://morningconsult.com/2017/11/02/voters-soured-on-key-gop-senators-during-height-of-aca-repeal-push/

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Three Republican senators who cast deciding votes against repealing the Affordable Care Act in July saw a decline in support among GOP voters in the third quarter, according to Morning Consult’s latest Senator Approval Rankings.

But the health care vote is likely just one piece of a broader trend that is driving negative swings against GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and John McCain (Ariz.), according to several Republican political experts.

At the heart of the downturn, they say, is growing dissatisfaction with elected Republicans’ failure to fulfill their campaign promises this year, despite the party being in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.

“You had Republicans and conservatives that were upset that the Senate wasn’t able to follow through on its promise,” Brian Walsh, a GOP political strategist at public affairs firm Rokk Solutions, said in a Tuesday phone interview. “I definitely think that Obamacare is part of it, but to me there’s just a broader voter unhappiness with the state of affairs in Washington.”

Twenty-two of the 52 GOP senators saw double-digit declines among Republican voters between the second and third quarters of this year. That compares to five of 48 Democratic senators who dropped 10 percentage points or more among Democratic voters.

Many Republican voters prioritize repealing or reforming the ACA, according to recent Morning Consult/Politico polls. Sixty-seven percent of GOP voters said passing a health care reform bill should be a top priority for the Republican-controlled Congress, according to an Oct. 26-30 poll, compared to 44 percent of Democratic voters who said the same. And 78 percent of Republican voters said Obamacare should be partially or completely repealed, according to a survey conducted from Oct. 19-23.

Of the three senators to buck their party on health care in July, Collins’ approval among Republican voters declined the most, from 65 percent in the second quarter to 46 percent by the end of September, and her disapproval numbers increased — a negative swing in net approval of 40 points.

Murkowski’s approval among GOP voters also declined, from 63 percent in the second quarter to 45 percent in the third quarter. Murkowski’s disapproval among Alaska Republicans also rose from 30 percent to 43 percent during that time period.

McCain’s disapproval among Arizona Republicans, already at 49 percent in the second quarter, rose to 51 percent in the third quarter, just above the 1 percentage point margin of error. His approval rating declined 1 percentage point to 44 percent.

One Maine political expert – former state Sen. Phil Harriman – said Collins’ opposition to several GOP plans to repeal Obamacare reflects conservatives’ longtime frustration with her moderate voting record.

“It’s the icing on the cake of why support by Republicans has dropped so significantly,” Harriman said in a Thursday phone interview.

Another factor in Collins’ case could be negative rhetoric against her from the state’s Gov. Paul LePage (R), a hard-liner and ally of President Donald Trump. LePage’s attacks came while Collins considered — but ultimately opted against — running for governor. LePage, who is term-limited, is the nation’s seventh-most unpopular governor — but is more popular than Collins among Maine Republicans, with 73 percent approval.

Michael Leavitt, former executive director of the Maine Republican Party, said Collins’ approval among Republicans will recover. He noted Maine Republicans have long backed the senator, despite her voting record. Collins has also never faced a serious primary challenge from the right since first being elected to the Senate in 1996.

Particular issues like health care “may momentarily affect polling up or down, but overall I think that Susan Collins is extremely well-respected by Republicans, Democrats and independents alike,” Leavitt, a co-founder of campaign firm Red Maverick Media, said in a phone interview Wednesday.

While Collins, Murkwoski and McCain’s votes against Obamacare may have cost them GOP support, they did play well with other parts of the electorate.

For instance, Collins has the fourth-highest approval rating in the Senate, and the 16th-highest approval rating among Democratic voters (75 percent). McCain’s overall net approval rating increased by 6 percentage points between the second and third quarters. And Murkowski’s overall approval rating of 49 percent is tied with that of her Alaska colleague Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), who supported the repeal bills.

Researchers suggest delusion may be at the heart of Obamacare Critics

http://www.latimes.com/business/lazarus/la-fi-lazarus-healthcare-republican-delusion-20171103-story.html

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This week’s open enrollment for Obamacare once again made me wonder: How can conservatives be so convinced of the healthcare law’s failure when the opposite is demonstrably clear? Obamacare is far from perfect, but it’s in no way a “disaster,” a “catastrophe” or “imploding.”

In 2010, the year the Affordable Care Act was signed into law, nearly 50 million people in this country were uninsured. As of 2016, that number had dropped to about 29 million, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

People with preexisting conditions could no longer be charged more or denied coverage by insurers. Young people could remain on their parents’ plans up to age 26.

Yet Republican politicians and voters remain determined to do away with Obamacare, regardless of the shortcomings of their proposed replacements.

Those are fancy ways of saying conservatives are more willing than liberals to accept what their leaders say as true and have little appetite for rocking the boat.

“This underlying difference helps to explain why conservatives resist new consumer offerings that represent dramatic change — for example, Obamacare,” he said.

The Australian academics delved into complaint databases run by America’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and Federal Communications Commission. They inferred political leanings with county-level data from the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

According to the paper, research on right-wing authoritarianism “shows that conservatives are more likely than liberals to yield to authority figures.”

At the same time, it says, conservatives are more willing to “justify potential failings of the existing social system and its institutions.” Such system justification aims to legitimize the status quo, “seeing it as ‘good, fair, natural, desirable and even inevitable.’”

This reflects conservatives’ belief that people should act “in ways to preserve either societal orderliness or its illusion.”

Note that last bit: societal orderliness or its illusion.

That goes a long way in explaining why so many Republicans are willing to accept a party line that U.S. healthcare was much better before former President Obama tinkered with things, despite the Affordable Care Act’s obvious improvements.

“Obamacare is a total and complete disaster,” President Trump said at a campaign rally in February 2016.

He tweeted in March: “Obamacare is imploding. It is a disaster and 2017 will be the worst year yet, by far!”

In June he said that “we’re going to come out with a real bill, not Obamacare. And the results are going to be fantastic … and everybody is going to be happy.”

Republicans never passed such a bill. In October, Trump resorted to an executive order slashing subsidies for Obamacare, which most experts said would, yes, cause the program to implode.

Marketers have long understood that political ideology can shape consumer behavior.

“Messages appealing to individuality were more effective for liberal than conservative consumers, while those appealing to a sense of duty to the group were more effective for conservative than liberal consumers,” the Australian researchers found.

Obviously there are pitfalls in generalizing people’s attitudes. So I contacted Joseph Antos, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute who focuses on health policy.

He laughed when I described the Australian study’s conclusions and said it was “quite comical” that conservatives would be characterized as having a knee-jerk aversion to change.

“Any normal human being is going to be concerned about changes where the impact is unclear,” Antos said. “Ordinary people don’t care about the Affordable Care Act. They care about their insurance and the cost of healthcare.”

Fair point. And, yes, premiums on the Obamacare exchanges have climbed much more than expected.

However, that’s not the disaster Trump makes it out to be. It’s primarily a factor of insurers failing to anticipate a surge in claims as millions obtained coverage, as well as a too-weak mandate that allowed healthier people to avoid buying insurance, thus raising costs for everyone else.

These are problems awaiting solutions from reasonable people capable of having grown-up discussions.

I find the Aussie researchers’ work reassuring. The dysfunction of our pre-Obamacare health system was so profound that it’s hard to imagine anyone thinking those were the good old days. Again: 50 million uninsured, coverage denied to people with preexisting conditions.

Not to mention annual and lifetime caps on insurance payouts, women paying more than men, premiums in the individual market rising by 10% annually, skimpy coverage for many plans, a very real fear of being uninsured if you lose your job.

If Republicans can build on Obamacare’s advances, they should do so — there’s certainly room for improvement. What we’ve gotten instead has been dozens of votes to repeal the law without a viable alternative to replace it.

The party’s most recent healthcare bill, known as Graham-Cassidy, would have slashed Medicaid spending by $1 trillion, stripped insurance from millions of people and eliminated consumer protections for many with preexisting conditions.

“Graham-Cassidy Bill is GREAT!” Trump said in a tweet.

As the Aussie researchers found, conservatives “act in ways to preserve either societal orderliness or its illusion.”

That’s a polite way of saying these people are deluding themselves.