House to vote Thursday on Obamacare repeal bill

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/republican-health-care-bill/

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BREAKING: The House will vote Thursday on the GOP bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said the bill will pass.
“We will be voting on the health care votes tomorrow. Because we have enough votes. It’ll pass. It’s a good bill,” McCarthy, R-California, told reporters.
“We’re gonna pass it. We’re gonna pass it,” he added. “Let’s be optimistic about life.”
An eleventh-hour deal renewed momentum for House Republicans working to repeal and replace Obamacare, as leaders Wednesday furiously lobby undecided or skeptical lawmakers on the plan that has been teetering on the brink of collapse.
House leaders have made clear that if everything goes their way, their preference is to have a vote Thursday. But they won’t call a vote unless they believe it will pass.
Vice President Mike Pence is on Capitol Hill. Members have been walking in and out of the speaker’s office all day.
The change in mood comes after GOP Reps. Fred Upton and Billy Long met with President Donald Trump at the White House and flipped their votes from “no” to “yes.” Trump committed to backing an amendment spending $8 billion over five years to fund high-risk pools and go toward patients with pre-existing conditions.
The new “yes” votes mark an incremental but symbolically important victory for the White House and Republican leaders, who have been trying without success for weeks to revive a health care bill that was pulled from the House floor in March.
Other than Long and Upton, there have not been major switches from the “no” to “yes” category, but several undecided members are seemingly open to the new changes.
The focus is on moderate lawmakers concerned the GOP bill will erode too many protections in Obamacare. As originally introduced, the bill would leave 24 million fewer people insured by 2026 than under Obamacare, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said.
But the House Freedom Caucus, a group of conservatives who helped scuttle the previous bill in March, now supports the legislation.
Importantly, the Freedom Caucus continues to back the bill Wednesday, even with the new spending being added.
Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows said only one member of the group opposes the bill. “We’re not going to lose any votes because of it,” he said.
The situation remains extremely fluid.
The future of the bill “as uncertain as we’ve seen it,” a Republican involved in the health care talks said.
Around the same time that Upton and Long unveiled their moves to “yes,” their colleague, Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, declared on Twitter that he opposed the bill.
“I just reiterated to @HouseGOP leaders that #AHCA in its current form fails to sufficiently protect Americans with pre-existing conditions,” Curbelo said.
New Jersey Rep. Leonard Lance, a moderate Republican opposed to the bill, also told CNN Wednesday morning that Upton’s proposed change would not sway him to support the health care legislation. Lance also noted that he has not heard from Trump or Vice President Mike Pence in several weeks
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Moderate Reps. Charlie Dent, Frank LoBiondo and Jaime Herrera Beutler say they still oppose the bill even with the Upton amendment.

Momentum for GOP Health Care Bill Boosted by $8 Billion Deal

https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/03/momentum-gop-health-care-bill-boosted-8-billion-deal/

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House GOP leaders and Trump administration officials on Wednesday agreed to pour an additional $8 billion into the latest version of their health care bill, part of a last-minute effort aimed at garnering enough support for a potential floor vote before a week-long recess starts on Friday.

The revision won over at least two moderates who had previously opposed the legislation, but it remains unclear whether House Republican leaders, who can afford to lose only 22 GOP lawmakers, have the support needed to send the bill to the Senate before legislators face their constituents next week. A House floor vote has not been scheduled.

The revision, offered by Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), aims to quell the concerns of more than a dozen moderate Republicans who worry that people with pre-existing conditions wouldn’t be able to afford health insurance under the new measure.

The GOP bill lets states opt out of a federal mandate that bars insurers from setting premiums based on a person’s health status if they establish a risk-sharing or high-risk pool mechanism. Upton and Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.) announced their support for the revised legislation after reaching a deal with President Donald Trump on Wednesday at the White House. The $8 billion would be allocated over a period of five years to states that opt out of the federal mandate.

“I think it is likely now to pass in the House,” Upton, a former chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, told reporters at the White House following the meeting.

But it’s uncertain whether more GOP moderates will reverse course and back the bill. One holdout, Rep. Ryan Costello (Pa.), told reporters he was still opposed to the bill despite the latest updates.

In an interview before Upton’s Wednesday meeting at the White House, Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) appeared unfazed that conservatives who now back the legislation could balk at the Upton amendment.

“Fred Upton identified something that he thinks will make the bill better that is mutually agreed to by people from all parts of our conference,” Ryan said in a radio interview with commentator Hugh Hewitt.

Even with the additional funding, some experts question whether people with pre-existing conditions could find adequate health insurance if the legislation were signed into law. The bill would let a state waive the federal requirement only if it is participating in a federal risk-sharing program or has established a high-risk pool.

Previous experience with high-risk pools have shown the cost challenges associated with them. The $8 billion would be in addition to more than $100 billion already in the bill to help states fund such programs.

“The amendment at hand focuses on high-risk pools, but the $8 billion amount is a pittance,” Robert Graboyes, a health care scholar at the Mercatus Center, said in a statement.

If the House passes the bill, the Upton amendment and other parts of the legislation may violate the Senate’s arcane budget rules. Congressional Republicans are using the budget reconciliation process to prevent Democrats from filibustering the bill in the Senate. But under the budget rules, all provisions in a reconciliation bill must directly reduce federal spending or revenues.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday said the Upton amendment may not pass that test because it could increase federal spending.