A new piece in the Atlantic sparked debate this week about the risk of ongoing COVID exposure to children as the country navigates toward the end of the pandemic. Brown University economist Emily Oster equated a child’s risk of serious illness from the coronavirus to that of their vaccinated grandmother. If grandma receives the Pfizer vaccine, her risk of serious illness is decreased by 95 percent. According to Oster, the condition of “being a child” aged 0-17 is 98 percent protective against hospitalization—so go ahead, plan that family summer vacation!
Oster cites no clinical or scientific experts in her piece, but some doctors were quick to respond that the comparisons are not equivalent (and also provide ready-made scripting for the “anti-vaxx” movement, which could claim that kids are already “basically vaccinated”).
But the article does bring up a real question that millions of families will soon face: what can we do when grandma and grandpa (and hopefully mom and dad) are vaccinated, but the kids are not? Given the pace of clinical trials, teens could be eligible for vaccination as soon as late summer, but COVID vaccines might not be approved for younger children until months later—and this generational vaccine divide will likely linger into 2022.
Undoubtedly children are at lower risk from COVID than adults, and likely transmit the disease less frequently (although much of the data supporting the latter comes from studies in schools, where social distancing and masking are enforced). And we’re not out of the woods yet: as COVID cases surge again in Michigan, schools there have seen a spike in outbreaks as well.
As families look at conflicting data and messages in the media, they need clear, coordinated guidance from state and federal officials to help them gauge safety as they navigate their second “pandemic summer”.