Senate Democrats announced a compromise budget framework to fund President Biden’s social spending plans to the tune of $3.5T, including substantial money for some of the administration’s key healthcare priorities. The framework sends instructions to several Senate committees, including the Budget and Finance panels, to craft legislative language around the central components of the deal, with the goal of passing a spending package before next month’s recess.
Many specifics remain to be ironed out in negotiations among the party’s progressive and moderate camps, but some of the main elements of the deal became clear this week. The plan includes extending the enhanced subsidies for purchasing individual coverage on the healthcare marketplaces, which were implemented earlier this year as part of the American Rescue Plan Act. It would also seek to close the so-called “Medicaid coverage gap”, by providing new coverage options for low-income adults in states that did not expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
New investments would be made in home- and community-based services for long-term care, along the lines of the $400B proposed in President Biden’s American Families Plan. And the budget deal envisions expanding benefits in the Medicare program to include dental, vision, and hearing services. Given the budgetary concerns of moderate Democratic lawmakers like Sen. Joe Manchin (WV), one critical question will be how the $3.5T deal will be paid for. One likely source of funding for the deal will be reforming the way Medicare purchases prescription drugs, making that long-time Democratic policy objective a probable part of any final package.
Notably absent from the healthcare spending proposals: lowering the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 60. No final decision has been reached on whether to incorporate such a move; rather, the question will be sent to the Senate Finance Committee for consideration. Given the urgency of passing as much of the Biden administration’s legislative agenda as possible before the midterm campaign season begins in earnest, we think it’s unlikely that Democrats will be willing to cross the Rubicon of Medicare expansion at this point.
The prospect of having to gain support from all 50 Democratic senators—as zero Republicans are expected to support the package—will likely temper any appetite for picking a fight with the influential hospital and physician industries, which have strongly opposed Medicare expansion.
One longer-term implication of the apparent decision to favor expansion of Medicare benefits over lowering the Medicare eligibility age now: a richer package of services in traditional Medicare might make Medicare Advantage (MA) a less attractive alternative for potential enrollees and could undermine any future efforts to create an “MA buy-in” for coverage expansion.
Expect lobbying and negotiations to reach a furious pace over the next several weeks, as lawmakers work out the final details of the $3.5T spending plan.