If Congress abandons efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Trump has said he would “let Obamacare fail.” This Q&A examines what could happen if the Affordable Care Act, also called “Obamacare,” remains the law and what it might mean to let Obamacare fail.
Is Obamacare failing?
The Affordable Care Act was a major piece of legislation that affects virtually all payers in the U.S. health system, including Medicaid, Medicare, employer-sponsored insurance, and coverage people buy on their own. One of the biggest changes under the health reform law was the expansion of the Medicaid program, which now covers nearly 75 million people, about 14 million of whom are signed up under the expansion. Most Americans, including most Republicans, believe the Medicaid program is working well.
When people talk about the idea of the ACA failing, they are usually referring to the exchange markets, also called Marketplaces. These markets, which first opened in 2014, are part of the broader individual insurance market where just 5-7% of the U.S. population gets their insurance. People who get insurance from other sources like their work or Medicaid are not directly affected by what happens in the individual insurance market.
The exchange markets have not been without problems: There have been some notable exits by insurance companies and premium increases going into 2017, and in the early years of the exchanges, insurers were losing money. The structure of the ACA’s premium subsidies – which rise along with premiums and cap what consumers have to pay for a benchmark plans a percentage of their income – prevents the market from deteriorating into a “death spiral.” However, premiums could become unaffordable in some parts of the country for people with incomes in excess of 400% of the poverty level, who are ineligible for premium assistance.
Insurer participation in this market has received a great deal of attention, as about 1 in 3 counties – primarily rural areas – have only one insurer on exchange. Rural counties have historically had limited competition even before the ACA, but data now available because of the Affordable Care Act brings the urban/rural divide into sharper focus. On average at the state level, competition in the individual market has been relatively stable – neither improving nor worsening.
Premiums in the reformed individual market started out relatively low and remained low in the first few years – about 12% lower than the Congressional Budget Office had projected as of 2016 –before increasing more rapidly in 2017. Most (83%) of the 12 million people buying their own coverage on the exchange receive subsidies and therefore are not as affected by the premium increases, but many of the approximately 9 million people buying off-exchange may have difficulty affording coverage, despite having higher incomes. As might be expected, after taking into account financial assistance and protections for people with pre-existing conditions, some people ended up paying more and others paying less than they did before the ACA. Our early polling in this market found that people in this market were nearly evenly split between paying more and paying less. About 3 millionpeople who remain uninsured are not eligible for assistance or employer coverage and many of them may be going without coverage due to costs.
Our recent analysis of first quarter 2017 insurer financial results finds that the market is not showing signs of collapse. Rather, insurers are on track to be profitable and the market appears to be stabilizing in the country overall. In other words, those premium increases going into 2017 may have been enough to make the market stable without discouraging too many healthy people from signing up. However, there are still markets – particularly rural ones – that are fragile.
HENRY KOTULA 