Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected this week in the U.S., according to updated projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.
The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.
When IHME first released its model, the only place where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan, China. The data from Wuhan formed the basis for IHME’s estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. That estimation is now based on data from Wuhan and seven locations in Spain and Italy where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The model has also been updated to use three different weighting schemes to better approximate the variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates.
Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, also changed after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework. Access more information about the changes here.
According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 8, peak demand for hospital resources will occur at the national level on April 11. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model.
April 1
Vermont
April 2
Washington
April 4
Louisiana
April 7
Michigan
April 8
Colorado
New York
Ohio
April 9
Delaware
District of Columbia
April 11
Illinois
New Jersey
April 12
Hawaii
April 13
California
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
April 14
Idaho
Indiana
April 15
North Carolina
West Virginia
April 16
Mississippi
New Hampshire
April 17
Alaska
Maine
Maryland
Nevada
Tennessee
April 20
Alabama
Georgia
Kansas
Massachusetts
Montana
Virginia
April 21
Connecticut
Florida
Kentucky
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
April 22
Arizona
Oregon
Texas
April 23
Minnesota
Oklahoma
April 24
South Carolina
April 25
Arkansas
Rhode Island
Utah
April 26
Nebraska
April 27
Iowa
South Dakota
April 29
Wyoming
HENRY KOTULA 