A 70-year-old man was hospitalized with COVID-19 for 62 days. Then he received a $1.1 million hospital bill, including over $80,000 for using a ventilator.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/70-old-man-hospitalized-covid-170112895.html

Man, 70, hospitalized with COVID-19 for 62 days gets $1.1 million ...

  • A man in Washington state who spent more than two months in the hospital and more than a month in the Intensive Care Unit with COVID-19 received a 181-page itemized bill that totals more than $1.1 million, The Seattle Times reported.
  • Michael Flor, 70, will likely foot little of the bill due to his being insured through Medicare, according to the report.
  • “I feel guilty about surviving,” Flor told The Seattle Times. “There’s a sense of ‘why me?’ Why did I deserve all this? Looking at the incredible cost of it all definitely adds to that survivor’s guilt.”

A 70-year-old man in Seattle, Washington, was hit with a $1.1 million 181-page long hospital bill following his more than two-month stay in a local hospital while he was treated for — and nearly died from — COVID-19. 

“I opened it and said ‘holy (expletive)!’ ” the patient, Michael Flor, who received the $1,122,501.04 bill told The Seattle Times.

He added: “I feel guilty about surviving. There’s a sense of ‘why me?’ Why did I deserve all this? Looking at the incredible cost of it all definitely adds to that survivor’s guilt.”

According to the report, Flor will not have to pay for the majority of the charges because he has Medicare, which will foot the cost of most if not all of his COVID-19 treatment. The 70-year-old spent 62 days in the Swedish Medical Center in Issaquah, Washington, 42 days of which he spent isolated in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). 

Of the more than one month he spent in a sealed-off room in the ICU, Flor spent 29 days on a ventilator. According to the Seattle Times, a nurse on one occasion even helped him call his loved ones to say his final goodbyes, as he believed he was close to death from the virus.

While in the ICU, Flor was billed $9,736 each day; more than $80,000 of the bill is made up of charges incurred from his use of a ventilator, which cost $2,835 per day, according to the report. A two-day span of his stay in the hospital when his organs, including his kidneys, lungs, and heart began to fail, cost $100,000, according to the report.  

In total, there are approximately 3,000 itemized charges on Flor’s bill — about 50 charges for each day of his hospital stay, according to The Seattle Times. Flor will have to pay for little of the charges — including his Medicare Advantage policy’s $6,000 out-of-pocket charges — due to $100 billion set aside by Congress to help hospitals and insurance companies offset the costs of COVID-19.

Flor is recovering in his home in West Seattle, according to the report.

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 impact on hospitals worse than previously estimated

https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/covid-19-impact-hospitals-worse-previously-estimated?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWTJOaU5EWTJOekZsWWpBMCIsInQiOiJEeUZmbVFWVEFmUUxiMElydWdrMmNzY2RtNEdMbmRmM3BFMUFiYTRDOTFBYktPVVJ3ZUFTbTVwR2VzZkNma2VLdUVTNWJ0cGxMNGZ3UjhHbWhDR3g2KzNLeTYrbHU1bCtOWFM1bzdIdXFyQmc2ZGFDNDA4NGNhbFZZT3R2c09wYSJ9

Coronavirus | MSF

Factors such as how many patients would need ICU treatment, average length of stay and fatality risk are straining hospital resources.

When it became evident that the COVID-19 pandemic would spread across the U.S., lawmakers, scientists and healthcare leaders sought to predict what the financial and operational impact on hospitals would be. In those early days, policymakers relied on data from China, where the pandemic originated.

Now, with the benefit of time, the early predictions seriously underestimated the coronavirus’ impacts. University of California Berkeley and Kaiser Permanente researchers have determined that certain factors — such as how many patients would need treatment in intensive care units, average length of stay and fatality risk — are much worse than previously anticipated, and put a much greater strain on hospital resources.

WHAT’S THE IMPACT

Looking primarily at California and Washington, data showed the incidents of COVID-19-related hospital ICU admissions totaled between 15.6 and 23.3 patients per 100,000 in northern and southern California, respectively, and 14.7 per 100,000 in Washington. This incidence increased with age, hitting 74 per 100,000 people in northern California, 90.4 per 100,000 in southern California, and 46.7 per 100,000 in Washington for those ages 80 and older. These numbers peaked in late March and early April.

Those numbers are greater than the initial forecast, especially when factoring in the virus itself. Modeling estimates based on Chinese data suggested that about 30% of coronavirus patients would require ICU care, but in the U.S., the probability of ICU admissions was 40.7%. Male patients are more likely to be admitted to the ICU than females, and also are more likely to die.

Length of stay was also higher than had been predicted. By April 9, the median length of stay was 9.3 days for survivors and 12.7 days for non-survivors. Among patients receiving intensive care, the median stay was 10.5 days, although some patients stayed in the ICU for roughly a month.

Long durations of hospital stay, in particular among non-survivors, indicates the potential for substantial healthcare burden associated with the management of patients with severe COVID-19 — including the need for ventilators, personal protective equipment including N95 masks, more ICU beds and the cancellation of elective surgeries.

The considerable length of stay among COVID patients suggests that unmitigated transmission of the virus could threaten hospital capacity as it has in hotspots such as New York and Italy. Social distancing measures have acted as a stop-gap in reducing transmission and protecting health systems, but the authors said hospitals would do well to ensure capacity in the coming months in a manner that’s responsive to changes in social distancing measures.

THE LARGER TREND

These challenges have placed a financial burden on hospitals that can’t be overstated. In fact, a Kaufman Hall report looking at April hospital financial performance showed that steep volume and revenue declines drove margin performance so low that it broke records.

Despite $50 billion in funding allocated through the CARES Act, operating EBITDA margins fell to -19%. They fell 174%, or 2,791 basis points, compared to the same period last year, and 118% compared to March. This shows a steady and dramatic decline, as EBITDA margins were as high as 6.5% in April.

 

 

Trump faces criticism over lack of national plan on coronavirus

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/498078-trump-faces-criticism-over-lack-of-national-plan-on-coronavirus

COVID-19 National Health Plan – Primary Care – Central Patient ...

The Trump administration is facing intense criticism for the lack of a national plan to handle the coronavirus pandemic as some states begin to reopen.

Public health experts, business leaders and current administration officials say the scattershot approach puts states at risk and leaves the U.S. vulnerable to a potentially open-ended wave of infections this fall.

The White House has in recent days sought to cast itself as in control of the pandemic response, with President Trump touring a distribution center to tout the availability of personal protective equipment and press secretary Kayleigh McEnany detailing for the first time that the administration did have its own pandemic preparedness plan.

Still, the White House lacks a national testing strategy that experts say will be key to preventing future outbreaks and has largely left states to their own devices on how to loosen restrictions meant to slow the spread of the virus. Trump this week even suggested widespread testing may be “overrated” as he encouraged states to reopen businesses.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday night issued long-awaited guidance intended to aid restaurants, bars and workplaces as they allow employees and customers to return, but they appeared watered down compared to previously leaked versions.

Some experts said the lack of clear federal guidance on reopening could hamper the economic recovery. 

“A necessary condition for a healthy economy is a healthy population. This kind of piecemeal reopening with everyone using different criteria for opening, we’re taking a big risk,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

The lack of coherent direction from the White House was driven home this week by damaging testimony by a former top U.S. vaccine official who claims he was ousted from his post improperly.

“We don’t have a single point of leadership right now for this response, and we don’t have a master plan for this response. So those two things are absolutely critical,” said Rick Bright, who led the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority until he was demoted in late April.

The U.S. faces the “darkest winter in modern history” if it does not develop a more coordinated national response, Bright said. “Our window of opportunity is closing.”

From the start, the White House has let states chart their own responses to the pandemic.

The administration did not issue a nationwide stay-at-home order, resulting in a hodgepodge of state orders at different times, with varying levels of restrictions.

Facing a widespread shortage, states were left to procure their own personal protective equipment, ventilators and testing supplies. Trump resisted using federal authority to force companies to manufacture and sell equipment to the U.S. government.

Without clear federal guidance, state officials were competing against each other and the federal government, turning the medical supply chain into a free-for-all as they sought scarce and expensive supplies from private vendors on the commercial market.

“The fact that we had questions about our ability to have enough mechanical ventilators, and you had states basically bidding against each other, trying to secure personal protective equipment …  it shouldn’t be happening during a pandemic,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.

Internally, the administration struggled to mount a unified front as various agencies jockeyed for control. Multiple agencies have been providing contradictory instructions.

At first, Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar led the White House coronavirus task force.

Roughly a month, later he was replaced by Vice President Pence. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was later tasked with leading the response to get supplies to states, while senior White House adviser Jared Kushner led what has been dubbed a “shadow task force” to engage the private sector. Now, FEMA is reportedly winding down its role, and turning its mission back over to HHS.

The CDC has been largely absent throughout the pandemic. Director Robert Redfield has drawn the ire of President Trump as well as outside experts, and he has been seen infrequently at White House briefings.

“I think seeing the nation’s public health agency hobbled at a time like this and looking over its shoulder at its political bosses is something I hoped I would never see, and I’ve been working with the CDC for over 30 years,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health at Georgetown University.

“I think that people will die because the public health agency has lost its visibility and its credibility and that it’s being politically interfered with,” he added.

The administration recently has taken some steps to improve on the initial response to the pandemic.

Ventilator production has increased, and the U.S. is no longer seeing a shortage of the devices. 

Testing has improved dramatically as well, though experts think the U.S. needs to be testing thousands of more people per day before the country can reopen.

The administration also unveiled plans to expand the Strategic National Stockpile’s supply of gowns, respirators, testing supplies and other equipment, after running out of supplies early in the pandemic.

Adalja said the administration’s positive steps are coming way too late. 

“It’s May 15, we should have been in this position January 15,” he said.

McEnany on Friday for the first time detailed the White House’s preparedness plan that replaced the Obama-era pandemic playbook, an acknowledgement that Trump’s predecessor did leave a road map, despite claims to the contrary from some of the president’s allies.

She did not give many specifics on the previously unknown plan. Instead, McEnany declared the Trump administration’s handling of the virus had been “one of the best responses we’ve seen in our country’s history.”

Yet as states look to reopen businesses and get people back to work, the White House is taking a back seat as governors set their own guidelines for easing stay-at-home orders and restrictions on social activities.

The White House in April issued a three-step plan for states to reopen their economies, but it has largely been ignored by states and by the president.

Dozens of governors have begun easing restrictions on businesses and social activities without meeting the White House guidelines. Trump has been urging them to move even faster, backing anti-lockdown protesters in Michigan, Virginia, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

Even scaled-down guidance from federal agencies is critical for providing a road map for state and local leaders, and for businesses considering how best to resume operations, said Neil Bradley, chief policy officer with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“We need guidance because it helps instill confidence about the right types of approaches to take, but when you begin to move away from guidance and into either regulations or very strict approach, then that’s increasingly going to be unworkable in lots of different locations,” Bradley said.

 

 

 

Window of Opportunity is Closing for Coronavirus Response

https://www.axios.com/rick-bright-testimony-opening-statement-6817ae7a-5196-4357-b83c-d3ff96990efd.html?stream=health-care&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_healthcare

Window of opportunity – definition and meaning – Market Business News

A top vaccine doctor who was ousted from his position in April is expected to testify Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus, and that the U.S. could face the “darkest winter in modern history” if it doesn’t develop a national coordinated response, according to prepared testimony first obtained by CNN.

The big picture: Rick Bright, the former head of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), will tell Congress that leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services ignored his warnings in January, February and March about a potential shortage of medical supplies.

  • He will testify that HHS “missed early warning signals” and “forgot important pages from our pandemic playbook” early on — but that “for now, we need to focus on getting things right going forward.”
  • Bright’s testimony also reiterates claims from a whistleblower report he filed last week that alleges he was ousted over his attempts to limit the use of hydroxychloroquine — an unproven drug touted by President Trump — to treat the coronavirus.

What he’s saying: Bright will testify he urged HHS to ramp up production of
masks, respirators and medical supplies as far back as January. Those warnings were dismissed, Bright says, and he was “cut out of key high-level meetings to combat COVID-19.”

  • “I continue to believe that we must act urgently to effectively combat this deadly disease. Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities.”

Bright will call for a national strategy to combat the virus, including “tests that are accurate, rapid, easy to use, low cost, and available to everyone who needs them.”

  • “Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.”

Read Bright’s prepared statement.

 

 

 

 

We Work on the Front Lines of COVID-19. Here’s What Hospitals Should Do

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86185?xid=fb_o&trw=no&fbclid=IwAR3iM5LMZj3BxWisk3puZ2T3bOCeBaDS_xCRoTrnVaZYfj4-DZPmUfr01cw

We Work on the Front Lines of COVID-19. Here's What Hospitals ...

A game plan from ground zero.

It’s only a matter of time before all of us are directly affected by COVID-19. Proper preparation is the only way to ensure high-quality patient care and staff well-being in this challenging time. Having collectively spent time caring for patients at two different tertiary care facilities in New York on the medical floors and intensive care units, common themes are emerging that represent opportunities for hospitals in other parts of the country to start taking action before COVID-19 patients start filling up beds en masse.

Staffing

It takes a LOT of people to care for a COVID-19 onslaught; mapping out different staffing scenarios in the event you have 40 or 400 COVID patients is imperative. Staffing needs for COVID patients are higher than normal because of the patients’ complex medical needs — many require ICU level nursing and respiratory therapists — and because both clinical and non-clinical staff will inevitably become sick and need to be taken out of work. Staff should be screened for symptoms and high-risk contacts; those who are symptomatic should be proactively encouraged to stay home instead of showing up to work not feeling well and putting other care team members and patients at risk. This requires back-up staffing plans to fill in when your people become sick. Shutting down non-urgent and elective departments provides staffing redundancy to pull from when needed. All employees should be given advance notice about staffing plans so that potential role changes are clear.

Testing

Robust testing processes for both patients and your healthcare workforce are critical for success. Hospitals should be taking this time to obtain in-house rapid testing kits to avoid unnecessary patient isolation and conserve personal protective equipment (PPE) while waiting for test results.

Healthcare workers are understandably scared about contracting COVID-19 themselves and giving it to their family members. We recommend all staff members be tested for active infection so that those who are infected can be proactively quarantined.

Forward-thinking institutions should be prioritizing antibody testing for healthcare workers. While this testing is still in its infancy, it is quite likely that those with strong antibodies to COVID-19 possess some degree of immunity. Therefore, if you can identify which doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, physical therapists, and janitorial staff have already developed an immune response to COVID-19, these staff members can take priority staffing infected units with the goal of reducing the number of new infections in healthcare workers and limiting exposure to those who have yet to contract the virus.

Communication

Each institution’s COVID-19 protocols and policies change rapidly as we learn more about the virus. How you communicate these ever-changing procedures with staff is critical. Most hospitals rely on daily email updates that are text-heavy; however, overwhelmed inboxes and less time with devices while wearing PPE limits the success of email as a sole communication channel.

Communication through graphics takes on new importance — signage noting changes in hospital geography, large pictures of donning and doffing instructions, phone numbers to call with equipment shortages, and clear instructions to staff about testing protocols, isolation, and removing patients from isolation need to be conveniently placed where staff can access information in real time without consulting their electronic devices. High-yield locations for just-in-time visual communication include outside patient rooms, nursing stations, break rooms, and elevators, so that the target information reaches its busy, hard-working audience successfully and repeatedly, minimizing confusion and augmenting clarity.

Limiting the Need to Enter the Room

Given ongoing PPE shortages, particularly around single-use gowns and N95 masks, minimizing the number of instances that staff, particularly nurses, need to enter the room is critical. This requires an adjustment from normal patient care. We recommend extension tubing to bring IV poles and medications outside the room. Tablets such as iPads can permit video calls with patients to check on non-urgent items. Centralized monitoring of oxygen saturations for all admitted patients can minimize the frequency of supplemental oxygen adjustment.

Similarly, given the increased risk of COVID-19 in diabetic patients, continuous blood glucose monitoring can minimize the need for frequent manual fingerstick measurements for patients receiving supplemental insulin.

Discharge Planning

Discharging patients to home or rehabilitation facilities presents novel challenges. A home discharge requires education, equipment, and follow-up. Education on home monitoring of vitals signs like oxygen saturation and blood pressure with instructions on critical values that should prompt patients to return to the hospital can expedite discharge and open hospital beds for other sick patients. Both patients and family members must also be educated on quarantine procedures to limit household transmission.

Many patients will have temporary oxygen requirements and we have seen home oxygen shortages in our areas. Coordinating a strategy with your outpatient clinicians, home oxygen suppliers, and insurance companies can facilitate getting patients home sooner on home oxygen and freeing up beds for sicker patients. Further, many patients are eager to go home earlier since hospital visitation limitations mean they’re sitting in bed alone away from family and the more a hospital can do to safely discharge patients home with appropriate supplies and follow-up will be beneficial to both patients and the hospital.

Hospitals must also be prepared to integrate these patients into their existing telehealth infrastructure, which has become the mainstay of ambulatory medicine in lieu of traditional office visits. For many patients, this will be a new way of accessing care. Prior to discharge, hospital staff should ensure patients have downloaded the necessary apps with login information and feel comfortable they will be able to follow up with their physician using technology following discharge.

There is a huge opportunity for hospitals that have not been caring for large numbers of COVID-19 patients to prepare ahead of time in a manner that optimizes patient care and minimizes risks to staff. Those of us on the early front lines have learned many of these lessons the hard way. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure — we encourage all healthcare systems to take action before the storm comes.

 

 

 

 

In worst-case scenario, COVID-19 coronavirus could cost the U.S. billions in medical expenses

https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/node/140021?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVNE16UmpZMkUzWlRnNCIsInQiOiJtcG1Tc29ZQVREZmlnTG9mSVFXams4K3pwYW1oRGh6b0xVekZnRlFKUUlNN2l4a3loWjBlZXZ0cm1UZFBYeTd1c1NkR2ZsdnI2aW5ZQVV0VlIrZHZPOFlkNFl4UDNsNTFBTmFXMzBhYVFnYUgyMjlYTHNzS3JuK09GTXo4UFVKQyJ9

In worst-case scenario, COVID-19 coronavirus could cost the U.S. ...

If 20% of the US population were to become infected with COVID-19, it would result in an average of $163.4 billion in direct medical costs.

One of the major concerns about the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has been the burden that cases will place on the healthcare system. A new study published April 23 in the journal Health Affairs found that the spread of the virus could cost hundreds of billions of dollars in direct medical expenses alone and require resources such as hospital beds and ventilators that may exceed what is currently available.

The findings demonstrate how these costs and resources can be cut substantially if the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus can be reduced to different degrees.

The study was led by the Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research team at the City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, along with the Infectious Disease Clinical Outcomes Research Unit at the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center and Torrance Memorial Medical Center.

The team developed a computer simulation model of the entire U.S. that could then simulate what would happen if different proportions of the population end up getting infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. In the model, each infected person would develop different symptoms over time and, depending upon the severity of those symptoms, visit clinics, emergency departments or hospitals.

The resources each patient would require – such as healthcare personnel time, medication, hospital beds and ventilators – would then be based on the health status of each patient. The model then tracks the resources involved, the associated costs and the outcomes for each patient.

For example, if 20% of the U.S. population were to become infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus, there would be an average of 11.2 million hospitalizations and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing an average of $163.4 billion in direct medical costs during the course of the infection.

The study shows the factors that could push this amount up to 13.4 million hospitalizations and 2.3 million ventilators used, costing an average of $214.5 billion. If 50% of the U.S. population were to get infected with COVID-19, there would be 27.9 million hospitalizations, 4.1 million ventilators used and 156.2 million hospital bed days accrued, costing an average of $408.8 billion in direct medical costs during the course of the infection.

This increases to 44.6 million hospitalizations, 6.5 million ventilators used and 249.5 million hospital bed days (general ward plus ICU bed days) incurred, costing an average of $654 billion during the course of the infection if 80% of the U.S. population were to get infected. The significant difference in medical costs when various proportions of the population get infected show the value of any strategies that could reduce infections and, conversely, the potential cost of simply letting the virus run its course – the “herd immunity” approach.

Simply put, allowing people to get infected until herd immunity thresholds are met would come at a tremendous cost, and even if social-distancing measures were relaxed and the country “opened up” too early, the healthcare system, as well as the broader economy, would come close to buckling under the weight of the additional costs.

WHAT’S THE IMPACT?

The study shows how costly the coronavirus is compared to other common infectious diseases. For example, a single symptomatic COVID-19 infection costs an average of $3,045 in direct medical costs during the course of the infection alone. This is four times higher than a symptomatic influenza case and 5.5 times higher than a symptomatic pertussis case. Factoring in the costs from longer lasting effects of the infection such as lung damage and other organ damage increased the average cost to $3,994.

Importantly, for a sizable proportion of those who get infected, healthcare costs don’t end when the active infection ends, and costs will likely stay high even after the bulk of the pandemic has passed.

A continuing concern is that the U.S. healthcare system will become overloaded with the surge of COVID-19 coronavirus cases and will subsequently not have enough person-power, ventilators and hospital beds to accommodate the influx of patients. The study shows that even when only 20% of the population gets infected, the current number of available ventilators and ICU beds will not be sufficient.

According to the Society of Critical Care Medicine, there are approximately 96,596 ICU beds and 62,000 full-featured mechanical ventilators in the U.S., substantially lower than what would be needed when only 20% of the population gets infected.

THE LARGER TREND

Data released this week by Kaufman Hall illustrates the extent to which U.S. hospitals are already suffering financially due to the coronavirus.

Looking at earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, hospitals’ operating margins fell more than 100% in March, dropping a full 13 percentage points relative to last year. Compared to most months, that’s a much greater change. Operating EBITDA margin was up just 1% in March 2019, for example, and down 1% in February of this year.

These margins likely fell even further across broader health systems, which often include substantial physician and ambulatory operations outside of the hospital, Kaufman Hall found. Overall, operating margins fell 170% below budget for the month.

 

 

 

U.S. coronavirus updates

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-west-virginia-first-case-ac32ce6d-5523-4310-a219-7d1d1dcb6b44.html

Coronavirus outbreak is level of public pain we haven't seen in ...

 

The pandemic is a long way from over, and its impact on our daily lives, information ecosystem, politics, cities and health care will last even longer.

The big picture: The novel coronavirus has infected more than 939,000 people and killed over 54,000 in the U.S., Johns Hopkins data shows. More than 105,000 Americans have recovered from the virus as of Sunday.

Lockdown measures: Demonstrators gathered in Florida, Texas and Louisiana Saturday to protest stay-at-home orders designed to protect against the spread of COVID-19, following a week of similar rallies across the U.S.

  • 16 states have released formal reopening plans, Vice President Mike Pence said at Thursday’s White House briefing. Several Southern states including South Carolina have already begun reopening their economies.
  • Alaska, Oklahoma and Georgia reopened some non-essential businesses Friday. President Trump said Wednesday he “strongly” disagrees with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on the move.
  • California’s stay-at-home orders and business restrictions will remain in place, Gov. Gavin Newsom made clear at a Wednesday news briefing. But some local authorities reopened beaches in Southern California Saturday.
  • New York recorded its third-straight day of fewer coronavirus deaths Friday. Still, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he’s not willing to reopen the state, citing CDC guidance that states need two weeks of flat or declining numbers.

Catch up quick: Deborah Birx said Sunday that it “bothers” her that the news cycle is still focused on Trump’s comments about disinfectants possibly treating coronavirus, arguing that “we’re missing the bigger pieces” about how Americans can defeat the virus.

  • Anthony Fauci said Saturday the U.S. is testing roughly 1.5 million to 2 million people a week. “We probably should get up to twice that as we get into the next several weeks, and I think we will,” he said.
  • The number of sailors aboard the USS Kidd to test positive for the coronavirus has risen from 18 Friday to 33, the U.S. Navy said Saturday. It’s the second major COVID-19 outbreak on a U.S. naval vessel, after the USS Theodore Roosevelt, where a total of 833 crew members tested positive, per the Navy’s latest statement.
  • The first person known to have the coronavirus when they died was killed by a heart attack “due to COVID-19 infection” on Feb. 6, autopsy results obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle on Saturday show.
  • Some young coronavirus patients are having severe strokes.
  • Trump tweeted Saturday that White House press conferences are “not worth the time & effort.” As first reported by Axios, Trump plans to pare back his coronavirus briefings.
  • The South is at risk of being devastated by the coronavirus, as states tend to have at-risk populations and weak health care systems.
  • New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday Trump was right to criticize the World Health Organization’s handling of the global outbreak.
  • Trump signed legislation Friday for $484 billion in more aid to small businesses and hospitals.
  • The House voted along party lines on Thursday to establish a select committee to oversee the federal government’s response to the crisis.
  • Unemployment: Another 4.4 million Americans filed last week. More than 26 million jobless filings have been made in five weeks due to the pandemic.

 

 

 

 

U.S. with 1/3 of Confirmed Coronavirus Cases with Less Than 2% of Population Tested

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Coronavirus outbreak affecting some Durham high school students ...

By the numbers: The coronavirus has infected over 2.9 million people and killed over 200,000, Johns Hopkins data shows. More than 829,000 people have recovered from COVID-19. The U.S. has reported the most cases in the world (more than 940,000 from 5.1 million tests), followed by Spain (over 223,000).

 

 

 

Learning from the largest US study of coronavirus patients

https://mailchi.mp/0d4b1a52108c/the-weekly-gist-april-24-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

ICU patients with coronavirus and pneumonia treated in Wuhan ...

study published this week in JAMA provides a look at the largest series of COVID-19 hospitalized patients studied to date in the US, reporting that almost all patients treated had at least one underlying condition. Physicians from Northwell Health evaluated the outcomes, comorbidities and clinical course of 5,700 confirmed coronavirus patients hospitalized between March 1st and April 4th across the New York City area. Hospitalized patients, 60 percent of whom were men, had a high burden of chronic disease.

Similar to other reports, older patients, and those with a higher chronic disease burden (especially diabetes) were both more likely to require mechanical ventilation, and more likely to die. Only nine of the 436 patients under age 50 who had no significant cormorbidities (as measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index) had died. One number received the most press coverage: as reported in the abstract, 88 percent of patients who received mechanical ventilation died. Digging into the details of the series, this may end up being an overestimation, as the statistic is based on a subset of 320 ventilated patients who either died or were discharged by April 4th. At that time, 831 patients remained in the hospital on ventilators, with outcomes still to be determined. Ultimately, the mortality rate of full cohort of ventilated patients could fall nearer to the 50-60 percent range seen in other studies.

Regardless, the rich dataset of the Northwell report adds to the body of evidence that severe COVID-19 infections and deaths involve several organ systems. This Science article provides a thorough (and comprehensible to the non-clinician) review of how the virus invades the body. While the lungs remain “ground zero” for infection, critically ill patients may experience serious kidney, cardiac, or even nervous system involvement. A host of chronic diseases predispose patients for worse outcomes—yet doctors remain puzzled that they aren’t seeing “a huge number of asthmatics” in ICUs. Patients are presenting with dangerously low oxygen levels but less distress than expected, likely because they are able to still “blow off” carbon dioxide, limiting the body’s ability to sense the seriousness of their condition.

Many dying patients are overwhelmed by a “cytokine storm”—an overreaction of the immune system that compounds organ failure. And new evidence suggests that large numbers of critically ill patients may experience abnormal blood clotting, contributing to the high mortality rates of the disease. The more doctors and scientists learn about coronavirus, the more complex the disease process seems—leaving doctors with work to do to understand, manage, and treat the tens of thousands of these seriously ill patients.

 

 

 

The Health 202: States are ending their coronavirus lockdowns earlier than health roadmaps recommend

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/23/the-health-202-states-are-ending-their-coronavirus-lockdowns-earlier-than-health-roadmaps-recommend/5ea09b5988e0fa34528d6eb8/?utm_campaign=wp_the_health_202&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_health202

The Health 202: States are ending their coronavirus lockdowns ...

Over a nearly three-week span in March, most state governors across the nation locked down their states because of the novel coronavirus.

Gradually opening things up will take even longer — and probably will vary considerably from state to state.

Governors are feeling pressure from two sides. Many troubling questions about the coronavirus remain unanswered, such as how to get more Americans tested and whether the United States even has enough capacity to track and isolate virus cases. At the same time, they’re feeling immense pressure to restart economic activity, with tens of millions of Americans out of work and the country stuck in a deepening economic crater.

As governors weigh when and how to reopen public gathering spots, there are several road maps they could look to.

Yesterday the National Governors Association released a 10-point guide for states. The first point is to make coronavirus testing broadly available. It urges states to improve surveillance to detect outbreaks, ensure hospitals are equipped to respond to surges and create a plan to reopen in stages.

The plan also warns states against opening prematurely. 

“Opening without the tools in place to rapidly identify and stop the spread of the virus … could send states back into crisis mode, push health systems past capacity and force states back into strict social distancing measures,” it says.

Then there’s guidance from the Trump administration, which says states should first see a decrease in confirmed coronavirus cases over a 14-day period. That guidance is in line with what public health experts have recommended — although Trump has also frequently suggested he’d like to see states open sooner.

So far, governors vary widely in how they’re approaching the issue.

Some, like Trump, are chomping at the bit. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is allowing businesses including gyms and barber shops to reopen on Friday. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) has said some businesses may reopen on Monday, and retailers can have a limited number of in-store shoppers starting May 1.

Other governors are much more cautious. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D), for example, has issued a stay-at-home order in effect until June 10. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) declined yesterday to name a date for easing restrictions, saying the state hasn’t reached its six goals before reopening the economy.

Newsom, however, did indicate progress has been made with his detailed playbook for reopening the state. After a phone conversation with Trump, the governor said the two had agreed to significantly ramp up testing across California, with hundreds of thousands of new swabs on the way and 86 new testing sites opening.

But virtually every governor is working on plans, some in coordination with other governors, on how to shape the post-quarantine world.

Here are the states opening things up first:

Georgia: Certain businesses may open on Friday; theaters and restaurants can reopen on Monday. Bars, nightclubs and music venues will remain closed; schools have been closed through the end of the school year.

Kemp explained his decision to reopen tanning salons, barber shops, massage parlors and bowling alleys, saying on Monday: “I see the terrible impact of covid-19 on public health as well as the pocketbook.” Kemp said he will urge businesses to take precautions, such as screening for fevers, spacing workstations apart and having workers wear gloves and masks “if appropriate,” my Washington Post colleagues William Wan, Carolyn Y. Johnson and Joel Achenbach report.

“Georgia, according to some models, is one of the last states that should be reopening,” they write. “The state has had more than 830 covid-19 deaths. It has tested fewer than 1 percent of its residents — low compared with other states and the national rate. And the limited amount of testing so far shows a high rate of positives, at 23 percent.”

Trump blasted Kemp’s decision during his briefing last night, saying it violates his administration’s phase 1 guidelines for when to reopen.

 

Colorado: Polis is allowing the state’s stay-at-home order to expire Sunday, after which the state will gradually reopen businesses. Starting May 4, nonessential offices may have 50 percent of their workforce at the site, although large workplaces will be advised to conduct symptom and temperature checks.

Polis has warned the restrictions won’t all be lifted at the same time.

“The virus will be with us,” he said earlier this month. “We have to find a sustainable way that will be adapted in real time to how we live with it.”

 

South Carolina: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) said Monday he was allowing nonessential businesses such as department stores and retailers to open, followed by beaches on Tuesday.

But businesses must follow three rules for operating: They must limit the number of customers in the store; require patrons to be six feet apart; and follow sanitation guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“I urge everyone to remember we are still in a very serious situation,” McMaster said at a news conference. “We know that this disease, this virus, spreads easily, and we know it is deadly. So we must be sure that we continue to be strict and disciplined with our social discipline and taking care not to infect others.”

 

Tennessee: Gov. Bill Lee (R) said he plans to allow some businesses to reopen once his “safer-at-home” order expires in one week. But the state’s biggest cities will make their own reopening determinations. Lee has appointed a 30-member economic recovery group to create a plan.

Lee, along with Kemp and McMaster, have met with the governors of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida to consider how to reopen their economies in a coordinated way in the country’s southeast region. The number of new cases and deaths in Florida has leveled off somewhat — something the state’s governor, Ron DeSantis (R), has been pointing to as he urges a speedy reopening in his state.

Ahh, oof and ouch

AHH: CDC Director Robert Redfield confirmed comments he made to our colleague Lena H. Sun after Trump claimed he’d been “misquoted.”
Trump claims his CDC director was ‘misquoted’ on second wave of covid-19
Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Robert Redfield said April 22 that his statement on covid-19 in the fall is “accurately quoted.” (The Washington Post)

The president took issue with the portrayal of comments from Redfield following an interview with our Post colleague Lena H. Sun. In that interview, Redfield warned that a second wave of the coronavirus could be worse than the current one.

“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” Redfield told Lena. He added: “We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time.”

The president again repeated the claim at his daily White House coronavirus task force briefing – this time, with Redfield standing awkwardly next to him.

Redfield then said this: “I’m accurately quoted in The Washington Post.”

But Redfield also sought to “soften his words as the president glowered next to him,” Lena, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Yasmeen Abutaleb write.

“The remarkable spectacle provided another illustration of the president’s tenuous relationship with his own administration’s scientific and public health experts, where the unofficial message from the Oval Office is an unmistakable warning: Those who challenge the president’s erratic and often inaccurate coronavirus views will be punished — or made to atone,” they write.

Ahh, oof and ouch

AHH: CDC Director Robert Redfield confirmed comments he made to our colleague Lena H. Sun after Trump claimed he’d been “misquoted.”
Trump claims his CDC director was ‘misquoted’ on second wave of covid-19

It’s apparent “Trump is again bristling at a health official offering too dire a scenario,” our colleague Aaron Blake writes. He points out that Trump was set off a previous time when another top CDC official warned in February that the spread of the coronavirus was inevitable.

OOF: The former head of the U.S. agency pursuing a coronavirus vaccine says he was ousted for opposing efforts to promote hydroxychloroquine, a drug Trump has insistently touted as a weapon against the virus despite a lack of scientific proof.

Rick Bright, previously the director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, said he was dismissed and pushed into a narrower role after he called for strictly vetting supposed treatments like anti-malarials repeatedly embraced publicly by the president. 

“I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the Covid-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit,” Bright said in a statement, according to the New York Times’s Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman.

He added: “I am speaking out because to combat this deadly virus, science — not politics or cronyism — has to lead the way.” 

The president was asked about Bright during last night’s briefing and whether the official was pushed out.

“Maybe he was and maybe he wasn’t. I don’t know who he is,” Trump responded.

OUCH: There were early missteps by Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar that bogged down the government’s response to the virus.

In late January, days after the first coronavirus case was confirmed in the United States, Azar told Trump in a meeting the coronavirus spread was “under control,” the Wall Street Journal’s Rebecca Ballhaus and Stephanie Armour report. Azar also told the president more than a million diagnostic tests would be available in weeks and that it was the “fastest we’ve ever created a test.”

These promises didn’t pan out.

“Six weeks after that Jan. 29 meeting, the federal government declared a national emergency and issued guidelines that effectively closed down the country,” Rebecca and Stephanie write. “Mr. Azar, who had been at the center of the decision-making from the outset, was eventually sidelined.”

There were numerous factors that slowed the administration’s initial coronavirus response, but “interviews with more than two dozen administration officials and others involved in the government’s coronavirus effort show that Mr. Azar waited for weeks to brief the president on the threat, oversold his agency’s progress in the early days and didn’t coordinate effectively across the health-care divisions under his purview,” they report.

Earlier this year, Azar tapped an aide to lead HHS’s day-to-day coronavirus response who had joined the agency after running a dog-breeding business for six years. 

The aide, Brian Harrison, was derisively called “the dog breeder” by some within the White House, Reuters’s Aram Roston and Marisa Taylor report.

“Azar’s optimistic public pronouncement and choice of an inexperienced manager are emblematic of his agency’s oft-troubled response to the crisis,” they add. “… Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields. In 2006, he joined HHS in a one-year stint as a ‘Confidential Assistant’ to Azar, who was then deputy secretary. He also had posts working for Vice President Dick Cheney, the Department of Defense and a Washington public relations company.”

There’s much we don’t know about the coronavirus

Scientists say a mysterious blood-clotting complication may be causing a number of the coronavirus-related deaths.

Doctors are learning that covid-19, once believed to be a straightforward respiratory virus, is much more frightening. Since the earlier waves of coronavirus cases, doctors have learned that the disease attacks not just lungs but kidneys, the heart, intestines, liver and the brain. Autopsies also have shown that some coronavirus patients lungs were filled with hundreds of microclots, our Post colleague Ariana Eunjung Cha reports.

“The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” said Lewis Kaplan, a University of Pennsylvania physician and head of the Society of Critical Care Medicine. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”

“In hindsight, there were hints blood problems had been an issue in China and Italy as well, but it was more of a footnote in studies and on information-sharing calls that had focused on the disease’s destruction of the lungs,” Ariana writes.

New data provide troubling statistics about coronavirus patients on ventilators.

A study found 88 percent of 320 coronavirus patients on ventilators in New York state’s largest health system died.

It’s an uptick from pre-pandemic figures. “That compares with the roughly 80 percent of patients who died on ventilators before the pandemic, according to previous studies — and with the roughly 50 percent death rate some critical care doctors had optimistically hoped when the first cases were diagnosed,” Ariana reports.

The research, published in the journal JAMA, also notes many of the hospitalized had other conditions.

“The paper also found that of those who died, 57 percent had hypertension, 41 percent were obese and 34 percent had diabetes, which is consistent with risk factors listed by the Centers for Disease for Control and Prevention,” she adds. “Noticeably absent from the top of the list was asthma. As doctors and researchers have learned more about covid-19, the less it seems that asthma plays a dominant role in outcomes.”

The economic fallout

If there’s a recovery from the current economic downswing this year, it could be temporary, economists warn.

There’s a growing chance of a second economic downturn if there’s another surge of the coronavirus or if there’s an increase in bankruptcies and defaults, our Post colleague Heather Long reports.

Instead of a V-shaped recovery, economists say, it is increasingly likely that the recovery will be W-shaped, in which there are improvements before another downturn later this year or in the following year. That possibility is “in part because creating a vaccine is likely to take at least a year and millions of Americans and businesses are piling up debt without an easy ability to repay it,” Heather writes.

“It could be triggered by reopening the economy too quickly and seeing a second spike in deaths from covid-19, the disease the coronavirus causes,” she adds. “… This could cause many businesses, which were barely hanging on, to close again. Many Americans could become even more afraid to venture out until a vaccine is found.”

“Pretending the world will return to normal in three months or six months is just wrong,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, told The Post. “The economy went into an ice age overnight. We’re in a deep freeze. As the economy thaws, we’ll see the damage done as well. Flooding will occur.”

https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NGA-Report.pdf?utm_campaign=wp_the_health_202&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_health202

 

 

 

 

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