Uwe Reinhardt: Giant, mensch, knife twister

Uwe Reinhardt: Giant, mensch, knife twister

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The renowned Princeton University health economist Uwe Reinhardt died today. The email from his Dean at the Woodrow Wilson school said he passed peacefully and surrounded by family.

Reactions on Twitter resonate with my own. They reflect Uwe’s contributions to and presence in health care policy and education — “insightful, “a treasure,” focused on the “moral underpinnings of policy,” “one of the nicest and funniest people in the field of health econ,” “a godfather of health policy and economics,” “a unique and disarmingly powerful voice in health policy,” a “world-class mensch,” “a gifted teacher and inspiring leader,” one of the “most acerbic speakers in Health Care over the last 20+ years. Never afraid to speak truth to power,” “engaging and understandable,” “a giant.”

I once called him “the narrator of U.S. health care policy.” Any journalist who could get hold of him for a health care story was sure to get pure gold. His wit and precision were evident in his spoken and written word. His command of English was tremendous. His ability to explain to lay audiences, legendary. If you’re unfamiliar, go read anything he wrote for The New York Times Economix blog, where he posted regularly for years. He can teach. You will learn.

Born and raised in Germany, he did it all in a second language. Of this, he reminded audiences regularly. The title of one of his presentations was, “Still Confused, After 40 Years in America!” Don’t believe it. Uwe was always the least confused person in the room.

He opened many speeches with, “I’m just an immigrant so maybe I am missing something about the curious American health care system” (or similar). I heard it many times. It never got old, particularly because I knew what was coming next. Just after such an opening, he would reveal some peculiarity of the health system I had never noticed in the same way. And then he proceeded to show how it was illogical, in violation of basic concepts of economics, immoral, or hypocritical.

He was a knife twister of the first class. Should you hold dearly an idea he targeted for systematic dismantling, you would squirm. If only I could write half as well or think one-third as clearly.

He touched so many lives and careers, including my own.

My first engagement with Uwe was in 2009, over one of his Economix posts. In the comments to that post, I asked him for an economics argument in favor of a public option. He was kind enough to respond at length directly to my inquiry in a follow-up Economix post. I was thrilled, even as I took a beating. I documented the encounter on this blog.

Perhaps due to my repeated blog-based engagement with him — like a fly that just won’t go away — Uwe took some interest in what I was doing on TIE. He noticed my many posts on hospital cost shifting and suggested that an updated literature review should be published. I counter-offered that we do it together, and he accepted.

I knew exactly what this meant. I was to write the first draft and he would serve as senior author and tell me how much more work it needed. Here’s where Uwe surprised me and earned my deepest respect. His response to my first draft was that it was so good he did not think it right that his name appear on it. Instead, I should publish it solo, with his support. This is good mentorship. It was my first solo-authored paper and is my most cited publication.

I met Uwe in person only once, in Princeton in 2010. I was there to visit my parents and give a talk at the Woodrow Wilson School. Learning I’d be in town, he invited me to lunch. I thought it was just going to be the two of us, but he insisted I bring my parents too — his treat. (In advance of the lunch, with some help from YouTube, I practiced how to pronounce his name. It’s “oo-va” not “you-ee.”)

Though I never saw him again in person, for years I encountered him over email. Usually our threads began with me asking a question or him sharing one of his lengthy emails to some other scholar or policymaker. (Oh, what a shame it is he didn’t post those emails for all to see. They were gems.) But frequently he would email out of the blue to inquire about my family. He took an interest in hearing what my children were up to and used that as an opportunity to remind me how different parenting or childhood was in his day.

“Child rearing is so different nowadays,” he wrote me once. “When we were little, we left the house after lunch and came home for supper, roaming the country side in the meantime (and playing with live ammunition [left over from WW II]).” I have very few folders of saved emails, but this one and others of his I filed away, not to be deleted.

Frequently, in the email back-and-forth that ensued he would type out some amazing story of past hijinks. Here’s one:

Once, at a Duke University private sector conference, the entire brass of the AMA happened to be there. It was my turn at the podium and I could not resist the following stunt.

The late James Sammons, then head of the AMA, had given interview in which he said Congress had carved Medicare to death like a turkey. I showed a slide of that quote which happened to have his picture next to it. I then showed data according to which between 1980 and 1988 constant-dollar Medicare spending on physician services per beneficiary rose 83%. Apologizing for this low number on behalf of taxpayers (the growth of 83% real allegedly did not permit physicians to give the elderly adequate care), I asked the AMA people: “What increase would have been adequate in your view?” So I counted out numbers (on a slide) like an auctioneer – 100%, 120% , …– but never got any takers. After +160% I left a blank spot and said: “Evidently 160% would not do it, so you give me the number. Is it 300%?” Icy silence. I then had a slide quoting country-music singer Conway Twitty or whoever it was from his song: “I need more of you (moolah) – more, anything less would not do.”

I then I ended saying that Karen Davis and I, both then serving on the PPRC (now Medpac) would propose a budget for Medicare physician payment (the VPS), because the docs would not come to the table with a reasonable number.

For a while I literally was banned at the AMA; but later I ended up on the JAMA board.

With tales like this, I thought of him as the Richard Feynman of health policy — brilliant in his field but with an appetite for adventure and practical jokes. I encouraged him many times to write up stories like these in a book, interwoven with health policy analysis or history. Sadly, he never did. Though he took pride in his past escapades, perhaps he saw himself differently late in his career.

“When I was younger I was more brash,” Uwe wrote me. “Now I’ve mellowed.”

There are many giants in academia, and many in health care. But there are none I know like Uwe.

​Pharma’s big quarter

Data: SEC filings; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Axios’ Bob Herman has been tracking the health care industry’s financials over the third quarter, in which the 99 largest publicly traded health care companies cumulatively collected $33 billion of profit and $577 billion of revenue worldwide.

Winners: Pharmaceutical companies collected more than 60% of those profits, but only 22% of the revenue.

  • No health care company netted more profits than Johnson & Johnson, the behemoth maker of drugs, medical devices and consumer products like Band-Aids and Tylenol. Its net profit was $3.8 billion in the quarter.
  • 8 of the 15 highest net profit margins were at drug companies.
  • 12 of the 15 highest net profit totals were at drug companies.

Poll: Ahead of House Tax Reform Vote, Americans are More Likely to Rank Children’s Health Care, Hurricane Relief and Other Issues as Top Priorities for Washington

http://connect.kff.org/poll-ahead-of-house-tax-reform-vote-americans-are-more-likely-to-rank-childrens-health-care-hurricane-relief-and-other-issues-as-top-priorities-for-washington?ecid=ACsprvumAORaSTpZGqmqhYQaXpeqtZoXjMxf6lbzmdUaIsV8vQ82Gwn_2PBBsI5zIiSuUzZ5w8-C&utm_campaign=KFF-2017-November-Poll-Tax-Reform-Vote&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=58466081&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8Cag0QgNSRgFKsxX_UJAz_sPw8ZG2hIH2l7nv8vGW9Dn5a8w_Mcy5njs5Hwf79zPT3e9Z8cecPnIWqwTXGvfb_qKXqRg&_hsmi=58466081

tax reform poll chart 2.png

Controlling Immigration Tops Republicans’ Priority List, With Tax Reform among a Number of Second-Tier Issues Including Hurricane Relief and ACA Repeal

Most of the Public Initially Favors Getting Rid of the ACA’s Individual Mandate As Part of Tax Reform, But Some Become Opponents When Presented with Facts and Arguments for Keeping the Mandate

As the House prepares to vote Thursday on its tax reform bill, a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds almost three in 10 Americans (28%) view tax reform as a top priority for President Trump and Congress.

That’s significantly fewer than the share that say the same about reauthorizing funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (62%), hurricane recovery funding (61%), stabilizing the Affordable Care Act’s insurance marketplaces (48%) and addressing the prescription painkiller epidemic (43%).  Two immigration-related issues – strengthening controls to limit who enters the country (35%) and passing legislation to allow the Dreamers to legally stay (34%) – also rank higher, while a similar share (29%) say repealing the Affordable Care Act is a top priority.

Among Republicans, half (51%) say reforming the tax code is a top Washington priority, behind strengthening immigration controls (69%) but similar to the share who consider hurricane recovery funding (52%), repealing the Affordable Care Act (50%), stabilizing the insurance marketplaces (46%) and reauthorizing CHIP funding (46%) to be top priorities.

In a tweet Monday, President Trump called on Congress to end the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a tax penalty and has long been the least popular provision in the law. While the House tax reform bill does not currently address the mandate, key Republican senators said Tuesday that they will include such a provision in their version of the bill.

The new poll finds that most Americans (55%) initially support eliminating the mandate as part of tax reform, while four in 10 (42%) oppose it. Most Republicans (73%) and independents (58%) support ending the mandate, while most Democrats (59%) oppose it.

These views are malleable, with about a third of supporters (representing a fifth of the public overall) switching to oppose the mandate’s repeal when presented with facts and arguments about who is impacted and potential consequences of its repeal.

For example, the share who oppose eliminating the mandate can rise as high as 62 percent when initial supporters hear that most Americans get coverage through their employers or government programs that meets the mandate’s requirements. Similar majorities ultimately oppose eliminating the mandate when presented with other arguments against it, including that premiums for people who buy their own health insurance would go up, that people are exempted from the mandate if the cost of coverage takes up too much of their income and that getting rid of the mandate would result in 13 million more people being uninsured over the next 10 years, as the Congressional Budget Office has estimated.

One provision in the House bill would eliminate a tax deduction that allows people with high medical costs to deduct any medical and dental expenses that exceed 10 percent of their income.  A majority (68%) of the public – including majorities of Democrats (77%), independents (66%), and Republicans (61%) oppose eliminating the tax deduction for individuals who have high health care costs.

More than four in 10 (44%) of the public think eliminating the deduction for high medical costs will affect them and their families, though in reality a much smaller share of the public uses that deduction in any given tax year. According to the Internal Revenue Service, about 17 percent of taxpayers who file itemized deductions use this deduction (approximately 6% of all taxpayers and 3% of the public).

Looking ahead to the 2018 midterm elections, the public is divided over whether not passing a tax reform plan or not repealing the ACA would be a bigger deal for President Trump and Republicans. Nearly half of the public say it will be a bigger problem if the president and Republicans are unable to pass their tax reform plan (47%), similar to the share who say it will be a bigger problem if they are unable to revive a repeal of the ACA (44%). Republicans are also divided, with similar shares saying   it would be a bigger deal if President Trump and Republicans are unable to repeal the ACA (50%) and if they are unable to pass tax reform (45%).

Designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation, the poll was conducted from November 8 – 13, 2017 among a nationally representative random digit dial telephone sample of 1,201 adults. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by landline (415) and cell phone (786). The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full sample. For results based on subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.

How the GOP Tax Bill Could Trigger $25 Billion in Medicare Cuts in 2018

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As they look to advance their tax bills, Congressional Republicans will have to work through — or around — a few potentially problematic budget rules. One is the Senate’s Byrd Rule, which says that any legislation passed by a simple majority, as the Republicans plan to do with the tax bill, can’t add to the deficit beyond the 10-year budget window. The other obstacle comes from “Pay As You Go,” or PAYGO, rules that require across-the-board cuts to certain mandatory spending programs when enacted legislation increases the deficit over the course of a year.

Because the GOP tax plan would add $1.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade, those automatic cuts would kick in, meaning that the government would have to slash spending by $150 billion a year for 10 years — including about $25 billion annually from Medicare, plus billions more from agricultural subsidies, Customs and Border Patrol, student loans and other programs.

The full accounting gets a bit more complicated. Because the official PAYGO scorecard shows a positive balance of $14 billion for 2018, spending would only have to be cut by $136 billion next year — but because only certain programs can be cut, that number is impossible to reach, as the Congressional Budget Office explained in a letter Tuesday. Besides the $25 billion from Medicare, the Office of Management and Budget would still need to find $111 billion in other reductions, but CBO estimated that only $85 to $90 billion in cuts are available.

The Senate does have another option, though. It can waive the PAYGO rules and avoid the automatic spending cuts, as it has done in the past, but that would require 60 votes. As The Washington Post’s Heather Long notes, that could give Democrats their only point of leverage in the tax reform process. “Congressional staff on both sides of the aisle admit that it’s unlikely Democrats would stand by and allow those painful cuts to popular programs to happen,” Long reports. “But Democratic leaders, including Sen. Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), are well aware they could have leverage in this situation if they can convince the public that it would be Republicans, not them, who would be to blame” for the cuts.

Such a waiver could also threaten the support of some fiscally conservative Republicans. And even if the PAYGO rules are waived again, it’s a safe bet that Democrats and fiscal hawks will continue to warn about the longer-term costs of deficit-financed tax cuts. Many on the left have warned that the GOP tax plan and its increased deficits will lead to renewed GOP calls for cuts to social safety net programs.

Senate Tax Plan Aims to Repeal Obamacare Mandate

The Obamacare repeal debate is on again. Senate Republicans decided on Tuesday to include the elimination of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate in their tax plan, a risky move that would raise hundreds of billions of dollars to help pay for their desired tax cuts but is also sure to reignite intense clashes over health care coverage. Here’s a quick look at this latest twist in the tax reform effort:

Why They’re Doing It: Repealing the mandate, which requires individuals to buy health insurance or pay a penalty, helps solve the difficult math problems Senate tax-writers faced. The Senate tax bill can add up to $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years, and it can’t add to the deficit after that period. President Trump and some Senate Republicans had urged that the mandate repeal be included in the tax plan since it saves a projected $338 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“Repealing the mandate pays for more tax cuts for working families and protects them from being fined by the IRS for not being able to afford insurance that Obamacare made unaffordable in the first place,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), who had proposed the move, said after the decision was announced. And if the repeal passes as part of a tax cut package, Trump and congressional Republicans would deliver on two promises to voters in one bill.

What It Means: Repealing the mandate may help Republicans chalk up a big win on taxes, but it also comes at a cost. The move raises revenue because it would lead to 13 million fewer people having health insurance, according to the CBO, and thus reduces the amount the government must shell out for insurance subsidies and care. Analysts also warn that, without the mandate, premiums will rise and some insurers might not participate in Obamacare markets that require them to cover pre-existing conditions. “Eliminating the individual mandate by itself likely will result in a significant increase in premiums, which would in turn substantially increase the number of uninsured Americans,” a coalition of insurers, hospitals and doctors wrote in a letter to congressional leaders on Tuesday.

Those expected effects carry significant political risk. For one thing, it could reawaken the liberal base that mobilized so effectively against Obamacare repeal and turn their focus to the tax bill. Michael Linden, a liberal policy expert, tweeted that “Reducing the corporate tax rate to 23% instead of 20% generates the SAME savings as repealing the ACA mandate. They could cut taxes for corporates just a little less, but instead they’re cutting health care.” Democratic leaders are already slamming the decision. “Republicans just can’t help themselves,” Sen. Chuck Schumer said. “They’re so determined to provide tax giveaways to the rich that they’re willing to raise premiums on millions of middle-class Americans and kick 13 million people off their health care.”

Will It Pass? A “skinny” Obamacare repeal bill that would have eliminated the individual mandate failed in the Senate in July when Republican Sens. John McCain, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins voted against it. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that including the repeal provision would make it easier for the tax bill to pass. As part of the deal, the Senate would also reportedly vote on another bill to restore federal payments to insurers that the president had halted last month. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said that a whip count had been done and expressed confidence that Republicans had the 50 votes they need.

Health Economist Uwe Reinhardt Dies

https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/healthpolicy/69273?xid=nl_mpt_DHE_2017-11-15&eun=g885344d0r&pos=0&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Headlines%202017-11-15&utm_term=Daily%20Headlines%20-%20Active%20User%20-%20180%20days

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Frequent critic of the U.S. healthcare system.

Famed health economist Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, has died, according to media reports.

Reinhardt, 80, was a professor of political economy at Princeton, specializing in healthcare spending, hospital prices, and comparative health systems. He was a regular contributor to major medical and health policy journals, including JAMA and the New England Journal of Medicine as well as Health Affairs

Reinhardt was born in Germany but emigrated to Canada and received a Bachelor’s degree in commerce from the University of Saskatchewan; he was awarded a PhD in economics from Yale University in 1970 and began teaching at Princeton that same year. His doctoral dissertation, which discussed the economics of physician practices, included a list of acknowledgements featuring Reinhardt’s typical wry humor: “One of the inevitable byproducts of a dissertation is that the author’s friends are drawn into the topic far more deeply than they might wish. Among my friends who suffered this fate are … ”

He also was a frequent critic of the American healthcare system, once observing that “If you want to guarantee access to care, always wear Gucci loafers. No ER turns away someone wearing Gucci loafers.” Reinhardt told Modern Healthcare in 2016 that Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) proposal for a Medicare-for-all single-payer system would be “dead on arrival in Congress” because “[p]olitically, you cannot legislate what rationally makes perfect sense.”

Reinhardt served on the Physician Payment Review Commission (a precursor to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission) and was a member of what is now the National Academy of Medicine. He was also a member of the Kaiser Family Foundation Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured and a past president of the Association of Health Services Research.

Reinhardt was married to Tsung-mei (May) Cheng, a health policy researcher and co-founder of the annual Princeton Conference on health policy; they had three children.