https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2022/12/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency-expiration-on-all-types-of-health-coverage.html

The end of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency will bring the largest health coverage changes since implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

The Issue

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act’s continuous coverage requirement prevents state Medicaid agencies from disenrolling people during the COVID-19 public health emergency. However, when the declaration of the emergency expires—currently scheduled for April 2023—states will resume normal eligibility determinations. This could result in millions losing access to affordable health coverage through Medicaid.

Key Findings

• 18 million people could lose Medicaid coverage when the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) ends, according to a new analysis.
• While many who are currently enrolled in Medicaid will transition to other coverage options, nearly 4 million people (3.8M) will become completely uninsured.
• 19 states will see their uninsurance rates spike by more than 20 percent.
• 3.2 million children will transition from Medicaid to separate Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) health plans. 

Conclusion

State Medicaid officials and policymakers must continue to ensure that individuals currently enrolled in Medicaid are aware of the approaching end of the public health emergency, and that they have a plan to maintain or find new health coverage through their employer, the federal healthcare Marketplace, or Medicaid.