The #1 thing you need to know from the 2017 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference: Follow the money

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/the-1-thing-you-need-to-know-from-the-2017-jp-morgan-healthcare-conference-follow-the-money.html

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If you want to understand the future of the $3 trillion U.S. healthcare industry, the lesson of the past is to ‘follow the money.’ And no one would argue that the place to do that is the infamous JP Morgan Healthcare Conference taking place this week in San Francisco.

While there are an estimated 4,000 people attending the conference, there’s roughly another 20,000 here for ‘off the grid’ meetings in every nook and cranny you can find. It is a surreal atmosphere in the form of the top executives from more than 450 private and public companies in biotech, pharmaceutical, medical device and technology, as well as healthcare providers, payers, private equity and venture capital firms and investment banks. Simply stated, this is where medicine’s flow happens.

With that said, roughly $1 trillion or one-third of annual U.S. healthcare spend flows through hospitals and healthcare delivery systems. So, if you want to understand what’s happening now and what will happen in the future, a good place to start is in the nonprofit healthcare provider track, where CEOs and CFOs of over 20 of our nation’s largest healthcare delivery systems presented their strategic plans in rapid fire 25-minute presentations.

Together these organizations represent over $100 billion or 10 percent of that $1 trillion spend. Incredible. The average organization presenting had over $6 billion in annual revenue, 15 hospitals, close to 30,000 employees and thousands of physicians on staff. Many of the name brands in healthcare including Downers Grove, Ill.-based Advocate Health Care, Irving, Texas-based CHRISTUS Health, Cleveland Clinic, Detroit-based Henry Ford Health System, Salt Lake City-based Intermountain Healthcare, Indianapolis-based IU Health, Oakland-based Kaiser Permanente, Cincinnati-based Mercy Health, New York-Presbyterian, Chicago-based Northwestern Medicine, Northwell Health in Great Neck, N.Y., and Robert Wood Johnson Barnabas Health based in West Orange, N.J., presented along with leading children’s hospitals such as Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and innovative physician focused models such as Marshfield Clinic in Wisconsin and Geisinger Health System in Danville, Pa.

This provided an incredibly important snapshot of both the ground level view of what’s happening in the real world today as well as the bets being placed for the future. What follows is a high-level perspective of what was shared by these prominent provider organizations.

So, follow the money…and here’s the Top 10 Trends shaping how that money is flowing:

Why Drug Costs Will Keep Rising in 2017

http://fortune.com/2016/12/19/healthcare-drug-costs-2017-predictions/

Exchange Family Pharmacy

At the start of 2016, we made 10 healthcare predictions for the year ahead. Overall, we were 50% right, which is either a failing grade in high school or a great average in baseball.

In the win column, we predicted that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) would block a major hospital merger, and they did just that with Advocate and NorthShore health systems in Chicago. We predicted that the technology-enabled insurance startup craze would be a bust, and Oscar promptly lost a ton of money. Finally, we were correct that employers would become more engaged in healthcare cost management with many adding “frozen carrots,” or financial incentives to drive usage of services that lower healthcare costs.

Our biggest bust was on the PCSK9’s—we predicted these new cholesterol drugs would be blockbusters. Thus far, they have been a total flop. We were also wrong when we predicted wearables would become medically useful treatments. And, to our surprise, there were more setbacks than breakthroughs in continuous biosensors, devices such as glucose monitors for diabetics.

We’re hoping to bat above .500 this coming year. Here are our 10 healthcare industry predictions for 2017:

A 20-year lookback: Has the hospitalist movement actually improved patient care?

http://www.fiercehealthcare.com/healthcare/a-20-year-lookback-has-hospitalist-movement-actually-improved-patient-care

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http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1607958?query=featured_home&

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1608289?query=featured_home

In the last 20 years the healthcare industry has welcomed a new type of specialist that focuses on the general medical care of hospitalized patients. Since the concept was first introduced in 1996, 75 percent of U.S. hospitals now employ these hospitalists and the field has grown to 50,000 physicians.

And the specialty continues to expand with more physicians becoming post-acute care hospitalists and laborists.

But is hospital care better for it? That’s a question The New England Journal of Medicine explores in two new articles in recognition of the 20th anniversary of the field.

In many instances, hospitalists do add value to improve quality, safety and innovation,writes Robert M. Wachter, M.D., a professor at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, and Lee Goldman, M.D., who works for the College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, in the first commentary. And they believe that the model is the best way to guarantee hospitals provide high-quality, efficient inpatient care.

The model has led to reductions in length of stay, cost of hospitalization and readmission rates, but there are challenges.

“Although hospitalists have been leaders in developing systems (e.g., handoff protocols and post-discharge phone calls to patients) to mitigate harm from discontinuity, it remains the model’s Achilles’ heel,” they write.

The case of the disappearing hospital beds

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/the-case-of-the-disappearing-hospital-beds/427211/

Click to access 2016chartbook.pdf

Healthcare is leaving the traditional four walls of hospitals. As patients, payers, and providers seek to reduce costs and improve quality, they are relying less on inpatient stays and more on outpatient services. A growing reliance on outpatient services could drive healthcare costs down as costly inpatient services are increasingly reserved for patients who truly need them.

Healthcare adds 33,000 jobs in September, though diagnostic labs shed staff

http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/healthcare-adds-33000-jobs-september-though-diagnostic-labs-shed-staff

Healthcare businesses added 33,000 jobs in September, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday, as the sector continues to be one of the biggest drivers of American jobs.

Overall, the U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in the month, and the unemployment rate held at 5 percent.

Ambulatory services added 23,900 jobs in the month while hospitals added 6,900 positions. Only medical and diagnostic laboratories lost jobs in the month, shedding 400.

Overall, healthcare has added 445,000 jobs in the past 12 months. September’s gains more than double the 14,000 jobs the sector added in August.

Here’s the seasonally adjusted breakdown for the healthcare sector. All numbers are in thousands:

Post On Trends To Watch Leads The Health Affairs Blog Top-Ten List For 2015

http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2016/01/19/post-on-trends-to-watch-leads-the-health-affairs-blog-top-ten-list-for-2015/

Health Affairs 2

Five big healthcare industry changes to watch in 2016

http://managedhealthcareexecutive.modernmedicine.com/managed-healthcare-executive/news/five-big-industry-changes-watch-2016

Hospital Consolidation 2016 Forecast: ‘More of the Same’

http://healthleadersmedia.com/content.cfm?topic=LED&content_id=324553##

Chessboard

The volume and pace of consolidation, marked by more large deals, more small deals, and more partnerships among hospital providers, physician providers, and insurers will continue “for many years and well past this current decade,” says one industry analyst.

Top 10 trends from the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/top-10-trends-from-the-jp-morgan-healthcare-conference.html

Self-Discovery

Moody’s: 3 challenges facing the healthcare industry in 2016

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/moody-s-3-challenges-facing-the-healthcare-industry-in-2016.html

OR Efficiencies