The Perfect Storm facing the Healthcare Workforce: Eight Current Issues frame the Challenge

Tonight at midnight, thousands of federal workers face the possibility their jobs will be eliminated as part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) federal cost reduction initiative under Elon Musk’ leadership. Already, thousands who serve in federal healthcare roles at the NIH, CDC and USAID have been terminated and personnel in agencies including CMS, HHS and the FDA are likely to follow.

The federal healthcare workforce is large exceeding more than 2.5 million who serve agencies and programs as providers, clerks, administrators, scientists, analysts, counselors and more. More than half work on an hourly basis, and 95% work outside DC in field offices and clinics. For the vast majority, their work goes unnoticed except when “government waste” efforts like DOGE spring up. In those times, they’re relegated to “expendables” status and their numbers are cut.

The same can be said for the larger private U.S. healthcare workforce. Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, industry employment was 21.4 million, or 12.8% of total U.S. employment in 2023 and is expected to reach 24 million by 2030. It’s the largest private employer in the U.S. economy and includes many roles considered “expendable” in their organizations.

Facts about the U.S. healthcare workforce:

  • More than 70% of the healthcare workforce work in provider settings including 7.4 million who work in hospitals.
  • More than half work in non-clinical roles.
  • Home health aides is the highest growth cohort and hospitals employ the biggest number (7.4 million).
  • 29% of physicians and 15% of nurses are foreign born, almost three-fourths of the workforce are women, two-thirds are non-Hispanic whites, and the majority are older than 50.
  • Its licensed professions enjoy public trust ranking among Gallup’s highest rated though all have declined:
 % 2023‘19-‘23’23 Rank % 2023‘19-‘23’23 Rank
Nurses78-71Pharmacists55-96
Dentists59-2 Psychiatrists36-79
Medical doctors56-95Chiropractors33-810

The Perfect storm

The healthcare workforce is unsteady: while stress and burnout are associated with doctors and nurses primarily, they cut across every workgroup and setting.

Eight fairly recent issues complicate efforts to achieve healthcare workforce stability:

Increased costs of living: 

Consumers are worried about their costs of living: it hits home hardest among young, low-income households including dual eligible seniors for whom gas, food and transportation are increasing faster than their incomes, and rents exceed 50% of their income. The healthcare workforce takes a direct hit: one in five we employ cannot pay their own medical bills.

Slowdown in consolidation: 

The Federal Trade Commission’s new pre-merger notification mandate that went in effect today essentially requires greater pre-merger/acquisition disclosures and a likely slowdown in deals.  Organizations anticipating deals might default to layoffs to strengthen margins while the regulatory consolidation dust settles. Expendables will take a hit.

Uncertainty about Medicaid cuts: 

In the House’ budget reconciliation plan, Medicaid cuts of up to $880 billion/10 years are contemplated. A cut of that magnitude will accelerate closure of more than 400 rural hospitals already at risk and throw the entire Medicaid program into chaos for the 79 million it serves—among them 3 million low-hourly wage earners in the healthcare workforce and at least 2 million in-home unpaid caregivers who can’t afford paid assistance. The impact of Medicaid cuts on the healthcare workforce is potentially catastrophic for their jobs and their health.

Heightened attention to tax exemptions for not-for-profit hospitals: 

Large employers sent this recommendation to Congressional leaders last week as spending cuts were being considered: “Nonprofit hospitals, despite their tax-exempt status, frequently prioritize profits over patient care. Many have deeply questionable arrangements with for-profit entities such as management companies or collections agencies, while others have “joint ventures” with Wall Street hedge funds or other for-profit provider or staffing companies. Nonprofit hospitals often shift the burden of their costs onto taxpayers and the communities they serve by overcharging for health care services, or abusing programs intended to provide access to low-cost care and prescription drugs for low-income patients. By eliminating nonprofit hospital status, resources could be more evenly distributed across the healthcare system, ensuring that hospitals are held accountable for their charitable care both to their communities and the tax laws that govern them.” Pressures on NFP hospitals to lower costs and operate more transparently are gaining momentum in state legislatures and non-healthcare corporate boardrooms. Belt tightening is likely. Layoffs are underway.

Heightened attention to executive compensation in healthcare organizations: 

Executive compensation, especially packages for CEO’s, is a growing focus of shareholder dissent, Congressional investigation, media coverage and employee disgruntlement. Compensation committee deliberations and fair market comparison data will be more publicly accessible to communities, rank and file employees, media, regulators and payers intensifying disparities between “labor” and “management”.

Increased tension between providers and insurers:

Health insurers are now recovering from 2 years of higher utilization and lower profits; hospitals did the same in 2022 and 2023. Neither is out of the woods and both are migrating to tribal warfare based on ownership (not-for-profit vs. investor owned vs. government owned), scale and ambition. Bigger, better-capitalized organizations in their ranks are faring better while many struggle. The workforce is caught in the crossfire.

Increased pressure on private equity-backed employers to exit: 

The private equity market for healthcare services has experienced a slow recovery after 2 disappointing years peppered by follow-on offerings in down rounds. Exit strategies are front and center to PE sponsors; workforce stability and retention is a means to an end to consummate the deal—that’s it.

The AI Yellow Brick Road: 

Last and potentially the most disruptive is the role artificial intelligence will play in redefining healthcare tasks and reorganizing the system’s processes based on large-language models and massive investments in technology. Job insecurity across the entire healthcare workforce is more dependent on geeks and less on licensed pro’s going forward.

These eight combine to make life miserable most days in health human resource management. DOGE will complicate matters more. It’s a concern in every sector of healthcare, and particularly serious in hospitals, medical practices, long-term and home care settings.

‘Modernizing the healthcare workforce’ sounds appealing, but for now, navigating these issues requires full attention. They require Board understanding and creative problem-solving by managers. And they merit a dignified and respectful approach to interactions with workers displaced by these circumstances: they’re not expendables, they’re individuals like you and me.

Covid Vaccine Misinformation or Disinformation? Which Was Worse?

In May 2024 a set of articles were published in the journal Science that focused on the intersection of misinformation and social media. The results, while preliminary in the grand scheme of things, were really interesting (and maybe a little alarming).

Gaming the System: Medical Loss Ratios and How Insurers Manipulate Them

Last week, I made my once a decade trek to a dealership to buy a new car. I did my research in advance (and even negotiated the price) so I was hoping for a stress-free experience. 

It was – up until the point where I got locked in the finance manager’s office for “the talk”. You know, the one where you are made to feel like a neglectful parent unless you pony up for all the fixin’s – everything from nitrogen filled tires to paint protection (just in case I encounter a flock of migratory geese on the drive home).  I shook my head no about ten times before we got to the pre-paid maintenance plan options. I decided to be polite and listen (plus I was curious since I was purchasing a car from a manufacturer notorious for costly repairs). As compelling as it was to pay nearly $5,000 to what ultimately would amount to a few tire rotations for my electric vehicle, I held firm. The finance manager angrily handed me my signed documents and whisked me out of his office.

I guess I can’t blame car dealers for applying massive mark-ups for services that are inexpensive to provide. Except similar financial chicanery is currently playing out in our health insurance system. If you swap out the finance manager for a health insurer and replace me with the average everyday consumer, the dealer’s tactics are analogous to how insurers game medical loss ratio (MLR) requirements (except as a health care consumer, you can’t say “no”). 

A bit of background is in order to understand why I thought about health insurance and car dealers in the same breath.

Insurance companies are required to spend a certain percentage of money they get from premiums on medical costs and quality improvement (QI); this is known as the medical loss ratio (MLR). If companies do not meet this ratio (usually 80-85%, depending on the product), they must refund the difference in the form of a rebate, or reduction in future premiums, to consumers.

Like any for-profit corporation in America today, a health insurer wants to avoid giving money back to consumers. Therefore, insurers have become adept at manipulating their MLRs through various accounting and financial engineering techniques. This manipulation optimizes their ability to meet MLR thresholds and avoid paying rebates, which runs afoul of its intended purpose: to ensure that patients receive the appropriate level of care.  

So how do insurers game the system, and what evidence exists for this activity?

The current MLR formula is:

Health insurers do not control taxes and fees, but they can easily engineer the other variables. Below, I’ll explain how.

Step 1: Quality Improvement (QI) Expenses

The definition of allowable QI expenses is broad and includes activities to improve outcomes, patient safety, and reduce mortality (mom and apple pie stuff). Insurers played a big role in writing the MLR regulations after Congress enacted legislation and made sure they’d have wide latitude in what expenses are classified as QI (akin to the car dealer “option” list) and what product segments they assign them to. 

Looking at reported QI expenses sheds light on this practice. QI expenses vary between insurers.  But they also vary widely for the same insurer from year to year (even after controlling for geography and product segment). In large part, this is attributable to financial engineering. QI costs can be effectively “transferred” on the income statement from one product segment to another, by adjusting the pro rata weightings). This enables them to optimize MLR performance across their insurance portfolio (i.e. by taking from a bucket with excess medical costs and putting it in another with insufficient costs) in a way that maximizes benefit to the insurer and is camouflaged from regulators and consumers. This is language from a recent UnitedHealth Group filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Assets and liabilities jointly used are assigned to each reportable segment using estimates of pro-rata usage.”

Annual QI expenses across four insurers in Florida in the small group market.

Although these QI percentages are small, the associated dollar amounts are large. In 2022, UnitedHealth, Humana, and Aetna reported $494 million, $550 million, and $395 million respectively in allowable QI expenses for their national plans. While there is some legitimate QI activity at insurers (e.g., pharmacists who identify high risk medications in the elderly), the reality is that much of the QI work is already heavily resourced within provider organizations, where it is more effective. Insurers also can (and do) count “wellness and health promotion activities” despite limited evidence these programs improve health outcomes and are more often used by insurers as marketing tools.

Step 2. Health Care Claims

The other variable that insurers can manipulate is claims costs. The more an insurer is vertically integrated, the easier it is. The prime example is UnitedHealth, which has an insurance arm (UnitedHealthcare) and a big division that encompasses medical services, among many other things (Optum), as well as various other subsidiaries. Optum Health and Optum Rx receive a significant portion of their revenue from UnitedHealthcare for providing services like care and pharmacy benefit management to people enrolled in its health plans. In fact, the amount of UnitedHealth’s corporate “eliminations,” (meaning inter-company revenue that is reported on their consolidated financial statement) has more than doubled over the past five years (from $58.5 billion to $136.4 billion). The proportion of revenue Optum derives from UnitedHealthcare versus unaffiliated entities has increased by nearly 50% over the same period.  A similar trend is playing out at every major insurer.

Take the example of the insurance company Aetna, the PBM CVS Caremark, and CVS Pharmacy, which are all vertically integrated and owned by CVS Health. If a patient goes to a CVS store to fill a prescription for Imatinib, a generic chemotherapy drug, the total cost the patient and insurance company pay is $17,710.21 for a 30-day supply. The same drug is sold by Cost Plus Drugs for $72.20 (the cost is calculated by adding the wholesale price and a 15% fee). When the patient fills the prescription at a CVS retail pharmacy, CVS Health can record that the patient paid a medical claim cost of $17,710.21 (even though the cost to acquire the drug is $70) and the remaining $17,640 can be retained as profits disguised as medical costs. 

Insurers’ extensive acquisition of physician practices also facilitates gamification of the MLR via its ability to pay capitation (a set amount per person) to a risk-bearing provider organization (RBO) it owns, such as a medical group. This enables the insurer to lock in a set amount of premium as “medical expense” (usually around 85%) with the downstream provider group “managing” those costs.  There’s a loophole, however. While the insurer has technically met its MLR requirement, the downstream RBO is subject to far fewer regulations on how it spends the money, which makes it easier to generate profits by skimping on care.  

The regulations on RBOs vary by state. In many cases, while RBOs need to meet minimum capital requirements, they are not subject to the same MLR provisions as insurers. For a vertically integrated insurer that gets a huge amount of revenue from taxpayer-supported programs like Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, this essentially means that (1) the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services puts the money into the insurer’s right pocket, (2) the insurer moves it to the left pocket, and (3) CMS checks the right pocket – and just the right pocket – at the end of the year to make sure it’s mostly empty (without regard to the fact that the left one may be busting at the seams).

The good news is there are ways to address these issues, both through updating the MLR provisions in the Affordable Care Act (which are long in the tooth) and more rigorous and comprehensive reporting requirements and regulation of vertically integrated insurers.  

Just like I don’t want car dealers pushing unnecessary add-ons to increase their profit margins, consumers deserve that the required portion of their hard spent premium dollar actually goes toward their health care instead of further enriching huge corporations, executives, and Wall Street shareholders.