Category Archives: Coronavirus Lambda Strain

A new way to visualize the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S.

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A new way to visualize the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S.

The month of July has seen Covid-19 cases in the United States increase at the fastest pace since last winter, marking the start of the latest wave of infections to afflict the nation. A new STAT analysis of Covid-19 case data reveals this new wave is already outpacing the spring and summer waves of 2020.

There are many metrics that governments, scientists, and media outlets have used to try and reckon with the Covid-19 pandemic. One of the most popular ways of visualizing Covid data has been to track the weekly average of new cases. This is pictured below.

Chart showing new Covid-19 Cases Reported in the U.S.
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

The number represented by the line could be thought of as the velocity of cases in the U.S. It tells us how fast case counts are increasing or decreasing and does a good job of showing us the magnitude of each wave of cases.

The chart, however, fails to show the rate of acceleration of cases. This is the rate at which the number of new cases is speeding up or slowing down.

As an analogy, a car’s velocity tells you how fast the car is going. Its acceleration tells you how quickly that car is speeding up.

Using Covid-19 case data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and Our World in Data, combined with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, STAT was able to calculate the rate of weekly case acceleration, pictured below.

J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

In this chart, we see how quickly the weekly average of new cases is changing. When the values are positive, new case counts are increasing, and when the values are negative, new case counts are falling. Highlighted in red, we can see each previous wave’s intensity and duration.

Looking at the data this way is useful because the rate at which cases increase is a reasonable indicator of how intense that wave might be and how long it might last. For example, case acceleration in the U.S. reached a peak in November 2020, closer to the start of the nation’s deadly winter wave than to when cases reached their zenith in January of 2021.

This view of the data reveals that the United States is currently in the midst of a fifth wave of cases and that this new wave is growing faster than the first and second waves from spring and summer of 2020.

STAT also calculated case acceleration rates for each state and major territory in the U.S., revealing where cases are increasing the fastest.

Chart showing case acceleration ranked by state
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

In the last two weeks, new case counts in Louisiana accelerated the fastest in the nation at an average rate of 444 cases per week per day (2.38 cases per 100,000 people per week per day). Only 36% of the state’s residents are vaccinated, making it among the least vaccinated in the country.

Chart showing covid cases per day in LA
J. EMORY PARKER
Chart showing case acceleration is LA
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

By looking at the state’s case acceleration rate, we can see that cases in Louisiana are currently increasing faster than they did at the start of last winter’s wave.

Likewise, in the state of Florida, the case acceleration rate has outpaced that state’s 2020 summer wave.

Chart showing new covid cases in Florida
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT
Chart showing case acceleration in Florida
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

In Florida, about 48% of residents are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

Cases are increasing in nearly every region of the country, but they are not increasing at the same rate everywhere. Vaccination rates likely help explain these variations.

The five states where cases are accelerating the fastest all have vaccination rates below the national average. But consider the state of Massachusetts, where about 63% of the population is fully vaccinated.

The New York Times’ Covid Dashboard reports the state has an alarming 351% increase in cases over the last 14 days, the highest such percentage change in the nation. Looking at Massachusetts’ case acceleration paints a different picture.

Chart showing new covid cases is Mass
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT
Chart showing case acceleration in Mass.
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT

While cases in Massachusetts are increasing, the rate at which case reports are accelerating is much lower than it has been for any of the state’s previous waves, and is below the national average for case acceleration.

A tidal wave of vaccine mandates

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EP14: What Motivates You? The Carrot or the Stick? | Live and Lead for Impact Podcast with Kirsten E Ross

State governments, private businesses and even part of the federal government are suddenly embracing mandatory coronavirus vaccinations for their employees.

Why it matters: Vaccine mandates have been relatively uncommon in the U.S. But with vaccination rates stagnating and the Delta variant driving yet another wave of cases, there’s been a new groundswell of support for such requirements.

Driving the news: Monday was a turning point.

  • The VA became the first federal agency to require its employees to be vaccinated.
  • More than 50 medical groups called for mandatory vaccinations of all health care workers, WaPo first reported.
  • California announced that state employees and health care workers must show proof of vaccination or get tested regularly.
  • New York City brought all municipal workers — including teachers and police officers — under a vaccine requirement that had previously only applied to health workers.
  • Even the SF Bar Owner Alliance hopped onboard, announcing that the 500 San Francisco bars it represents will require indoor customers to show proof of vaccination or a negative test.

The big picture: Vaccine requirements are also gaining steam internationally.

  • France has required health workers to get vaccinated. Members of the public must also have a vaccine or a negative test to enter most indoor venues.
  • Although the measure has sparked protests, it’s also encouraged millions of people to get vaccinated, per the NYT.

Yes, but: Many Republican-led states have preemptively prohibited vaccine requirements, at least in some settings.

The bottom line: Vaccine mandates have been unpopular in part because they’ll inevitably create a backlash.

  • But the vaccination effort seems to have run out of carrots to incentivize more people to get a shot, and with rates remaining as low as they are in light of a worsening domestic situation, resorting to sticks has clearly become a more attractive option.

Experts warn unvaccinated are greatest threat to pandemic recovery

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Experts warn unvaccinated are greatest threat to pandemic recovery

COVID-19 Vaccine Cheat Days are Adding Up - The Atlantic

Experts are warning that the greatest threat to the pandemic recovery in the United States are the large swaths of Americans who remain unvaccinated. 

Over the past few weeks, the U.S. has seen a surge of coronavirus cases across the country in the wake of the highly infectious delta variant. The new strain has particularly wreaked havoc in states with low vaccination rates.

The state of Missouri has recently become a U.S. hot spot, averaging more than 2,100 cases per day over the last seven-day period, according to data from The New York Times. About 41 percent of the state population is fully vaccinated.

Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana and Nevada have also seen an increase in coronavirus cases.

The nationwide vaccination rate has also dropped following the mad dash for the vaccine earlier in the year. Health experts warn that unvaccinated individuals pose a risk to the country, and could spread the disease until other, vaccine-resistant strains arise.

Some say the U.S. has missed its chance at outrunning the delta strain.

“I think we probably could have done that here in the U.S., if we hadn’t slowed our vaccination rates so much,” Andy Pekosz, professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University, told The Hill.

“But I think it’s important also to emphasize that variants will emerge anywhere the virus is replicating in people to a great degree. And globally, there are so many places where this virus is just freely infecting people and replicating and it’s those situations that are going to be generating variants at a higher frequency.”

The delta variant isn’t even the only variant to worry about.

The lambda strain, first detected in Peru, is now present in the U.S. The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated this strain as a “variant of interest,” the designation beneath that of a “variant of concern,” like that of the delta variant.

Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy for the Kaiser Family Foundation, and Pekosz told The Hill that data on the lambda variant is limited at the moment, but what information is available suggests that it is similar to delta in that it is more transmissible than previously dominant strains like the alpha and beta variants. They added that vaccines should still offer protection against it.

At the same time, the lambda variant is not spreading as quickly as the delta variant.

“There’s a lot that we do not yet know about the lambda variants, including compared to the delta,” said Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University.

“Is it more contagious? This is a really important question, because when there is a new variant, and it’s more contagious, it displaces the previous variant. But if there is already a very contagious variant and you have other variants that are appearing as they are all the time, they probably are not going to take over,” Wen said.

Wen, who previously served as Baltimore’s health commissioner, expressed frustration that vaccinations have not been properly incentivized even when she warned earlier in May that the window for intervention was quickly narrowing.

“If we had tied vaccinations to reopening policy, we had a much higher chance of achieving the kinds of immunity that we needed,” Wen said.

Pekosz opined that if the U.S. had reached a 90 percent vaccination rate earlier this year, the nation could have avoided the current situation.

“We stalled at a place where essentially half the population has immunity and half doesn’t and that’s a really awful place to be from a vaccine perspective,” Pekosz said.

According to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, around 69 percent of adults in the U.S. have received at least one dose. The country has still yet to reach President Biden‘s 70 percent vaccination goal, weeks after his initial July 4 deadline.

All health experts who spoke with The Hill agreed that the biggest challenge that the U.S. faces to overcome the pandemic is vaccine hesitancy.

The large groups of people holding out from vaccinations pose a significant threat because they are not immune, and are still capable of spreading COVID-19 and new variants. They added another major issue is that unvaccinated people are behaving as though they were vaccinated, going without masks in public and attending large indoor and outdoor gatherings that they should avoid.

However, Pekosz added that the progress that has been made is substantial.

“I always want to emphasize the positive, which is right now the vaccine seems to be working well against the delta variant. And that should be something that people are using to get motivated to get the vaccine,” he said. “I think that’s the critical thing to get across to everybody.”