Federal Reserve delivers super-sized half-point rate cut

The Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate Wednesday by an extra-large half-percentage point and projected more rate cuts this year and next, as its period of trying to put brakes on the economy to fight inflation comes to a close.

Why it matters: 

The move lowers borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, as the central bank aims to keep the economy’s expansion going strong amid warning signs on the outlook.

What they’re saying: 

“The labor market is actually in solid condition — and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday.

  • “The U.S. economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace,” Powell added. “We want to keep it there.”

Zoom in: 

The rate cut reflects the U.S. entering a new phase where the softening job market is the predominant economic risk — rather than elevated inflation.

  • By going with an aggressive half-point cut instead of its more traditional quarter-point adjustment, the Fed moved to get ahead of some evident faltering in the job market.
  • However, new projections imply the Fed will shift toward smaller quarter-point rate cuts from here.
  • The cut also thrusts the Fed into election-year politics, as former President Trump has said the central bank should not ease monetary policy mere weeks before the election. Some Democrats have called for even more aggressive rate cuts.

Driving the news: 

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee lowered its target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%–5%, from the 5.25–5.5% range in place since last July.

  • The central bank also released new projections that anticipated the rate will be cut an additional half-point by December — implying a quarter-point cut at each of its two remaining 2024 meetings.
  • The median Fed officials anticipated their target rate will be down to 3.4% by the end of 2025, which implies four quarter-point rate cuts next year.
  • “Job gains have slowed,” the Fed’s policy statement noted, adding that the committee “has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

Of note: 

The Fed policy meeting marked the first dissent from a board member in more than two years. Michelle Bowman, a Trump-appointed governor who focuses on community banking issues, preferred to cut by only a quarter point.

  • Bowman’s dissent is also the first by a member of the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors — as opposed to a regional Fed bank president — since 2005.
  • Christopher Waller, the other Trump-appointed governor on the board, supported the action.

By the numbers: 

The median official saw inflation for the full year coming in at 2.3%, not far from the Fed’s 2% target. By contrast, in June, officials saw 2.6% inflation this year.

  • They also anticipate slightly higher unemployment. The projections listed a 4.4% unemployment rate in the final quarter of the year. That rate was 4.2% in August, up from 3.7% at the start of the year.
  • However, the Fed officials’ forecasts also imply the jobless rate leveling out at that point and being flat at 4.4% in the final months of 2025.

The bottom line: 

Powell and his colleagues elected to take more aggressive action Wednesday in hopes that it will be enough to forestall any further deterioration in the job market of the sort seen over the last few months — and is betting that the Fed can move to a more gradualist approach from here.

  • Speaking about the larger-than-anticipated rate cut, Powell said he was pleased the Fed made a strong start in lowering interest rates.
  • “The logic of this — both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint — was clear,” Powell said.
  • He added: “We’re gonna take it meeting by meeting. … There’s no sense that the committee feels it’s in a rush to do this.”

Inflation can take the back seat

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For more than two years, the economy’s big problem was inflation — it was the key irritant for policymakers, the White House and American consumers.

  • Today’s Consumer Price Index report confirms that is no longer the case: Prices are no longer rising rapidly, which means the battle to kill inflation appears all but over.

Why it matters: 

Inflation looked to be coming down alongside a still-flourishing economy — until recently. The string of upbeat inflation data is all but certain to allow Fed officials to more comfortably shift their attention to the weakening labor market and lower interest rates.

What they’re saying: 

“[T]he cumulative improvement in the overall inflation data over the past year now gives the Federal Reserve cover to move into risk management mode with the intent of protecting and preserving the soft landing,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM, wrote today.

By the numbers: 

Overall CPI rose 2.9% in the 12 months ending in July, dropping below 3% for the first time since 2021.

  • Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 3.2% — the smallest increase in three years.
  • By a different measure, inflation looks more benign. Over the last three months, core CPI rose 1.6% on an annualized basis, down from 2.1% in June.

Zoom in: 

Prices for many key items increased more slowly — or, in some cases, got cheaper over the month.

  • Grocery costs have been rising at a mild pace since February, including a 0.1% increase in July. Prices are up just 1% compared to the same time last year.
  • Used vehicle costs fell 2.3% in July, a bigger drop than that seen the previous month. New vehicle prices fell 0.2%, the sixth-straight month of price decreases.

The intrigue: 

The bad news was in the housing sector, where prices have kept upward pressure on inflation.

  • The shelter index is a huge component. It accounted for over 70% of core CPI’s 12-month increase through July, the government said.
  • The sector is “solely responsible for core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target,” Preston Caldwell, senior U.S. economist at Morningstar, wrote today.

In the CPI report, the rent index rose 0.5%, up from 0.3%. Owner’s equivalent rent, which the government uses to account for inflation in homes that people own, rose 0.4% after slowing in June.

What to watch: 

The question in recent weeks has been how drastic of a cut the Fed will make at the conclusion of its next policy meeting in September — rather than whether it will do so at all.

  • The odds that the Fed would cut by a quarter of a percentage point rose to 54% after the inflation report, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
  • As of yesterday, odds of a half-percentage point cut looked slightly more likely.

The bottom line: 

The incoming data about the health of the labor market will ultimately determine that call.

  • “This is now a labor data-first Fed, not an inflation data-first Fed, and the incoming labor data will determine how aggressively the Fed pulls forward rate cuts,” economists at Evercore wrote in a note this morning.