What’s next after the failed Senate Obamacare votes

There’s likely to be one more round of health care votes in the House next week after the Senate votes down two rival Affordable Care Act subsidy proposals Thursday — but they won’t get any closer to extending the enhanced subsidies.

Why it matters:

Those subsidies now appear certain to expire at the end of the year, short of a last-minute breakthrough — and out-of-pocket premium costs will more than double on average for roughly 20 million ACA enrollees.

Driving the news:

The Democratic proposal that will get a Senate vote Thursday would extend the enhanced subsidies for three years, while the Senate GOP proposal would not extend the subsidies but instead provide money for health savings accounts.

  • Both will fail to get the needed 60 votes.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has left the door open for further bipartisan talks after both votes fail, but there is deep skepticism in both parties that any such deal is possible.
  • Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said it’s possible there is “additional discussion” after the failed votes, but said the issue also might end up in a “political solution in November when people pick the side that’s for them.”

The latest: 

House GOP leaders outlined a range of possible health care options on Wednesday morning, but they have little to do with the subsidies, which weren’t included in their plans.

  • GOP leaders will bring “consensus” bills to the floor next week that aim to lower health care costs, a source who attended House Republicans’ Wednesday morning conference meeting told Axios.
  • Those could include expanding health savings accounts and association health plans, which allow employers to band together to purchase coverage.
  • Overhauling pharmacy benefit managers with the goal of lowering drug costs was also discussed, along with funding ACA payments known as cost-sharing reductions (CSRs).

The intrigue:

On the House side, a bipartisan group of moderates including Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) filed a discharge petition, a procedural move to force a vote on a compromise extension plan.

  • But that effort to go around House GOP leadership faces long odds against getting the required majority of the chamber to sign on.
  • Modifications to the subsidies in that plan designed to win over GOP votes, like a crackdown on zero premium plans that backers say fuel fraud, could lose Democratic support due to concerns about coverage loss.

Democratic leaders have been focused on a clean three-year extension, saying that is the clearest way to address the issue with little time remaining to implement changes before the new coverage year starts Jan. 1.

  • House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) told reporters Wednesday he has no position on the discharge petition.

The bottom line: 

There is also deep resistance to a subsidy extension among many Republicans.

  • Thune has said he thinks Democratic leadership is more interested in a “political messaging” vote this week than in entertaining reforms to the subsidies that Republicans point to.
  • Even if members in either chamber are able to make progress on a consensus compromise subsidy plan, which in theory could be attached to a government funding bill needed before Jan. 30, the divisive issue of abortion hangs over all of the discussions.
  • Many Republicans insist on new limits preventing the subsidies from going to insurance plans that cover abortion. Democrats say that is a dangerous expansion of safeguards that already require taxpayer funds to be segregated and not pay for abortion coverage.

CEO sentiment improves, but hiring outlook is gloomy

CEO sentiment increased for the third consecutive quarter, even as America’s most prominent executives expect underlying job market conditions to remain weak.

Why it matters: 

The economic outlook among CEOs has steadily improved since plunging in the aftermath of President Trump’s initiation of the global trade war.

  • Under the hood, however, there is evidence that structural economic changes — including the proliferation of AI — are weighing on hiring intentions, a warning sign for the labor market.

By the numbers: 

The Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index rose by 4 points in its fourth-quarter survey, which was fielded from the final weeks of November through earlier this month.

  • The index is still shy of the highest level of the Trump 2.0 era and slightly below the historical average of 83.

Zoom in: 

The increase reflects a more upbeat view of company revenue in the next six months: Expectations for sales rose 6 points, though the survey does not ask respondents to adjust for the prospect of higher prices.

  • Plans for capital expenditures — investments in equipment, buildings or software — ticked up 2 points, following a 10-point surge in the previous quarter.
  • Hiring plans also improved relative to last quarter — up 4 points — though it is the survey’s lone indicator below the level that signals growth.

What they’re saying: 

“Notably this quarter, more CEOs plan to reduce employment than increase it for the third quarter in a row – the lowest three-quarter average since the Great Recession,” Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said in a statement.

  • About one-quarter of CEOs say they will increase hiring, while 35% say employment will shrink at their respective firms. The remaining 40% plan to keep hiring steady.
  • A smaller share of CEOs plan to slash workers relative to last quarter, but the figures still show a notable shift among top executives.
  • Consider the results from this time last year: A similar share of CEOs expected no change in employment levels, but just 21% said they anticipated cutting jobs, while 38% planned to increase hiring.

“CEOs’ softening hiring plans reflect an uncertain economic environment in which AI is driving sizeable [capital expenditures] growth and productivity gains while tariff volatility is increasing costs, particularly for tariff-exposed companies, including small businesses,” Bolten said today.

The big picture: 

The in-the-dumps hiring plans signaled by big firm CEOs — alongside a string of layoff announcements in recent months — signal a possible shift for the steady-state labor market that has persisted in recent years.

  • Powell raised the possibility that the labor market might be even weaker than government data suggests.
  • The economy has added a monthly average of 40,000 payroll jobs since April. But “we think there’s an overstatement in these numbers, by about 60,000, so that would be negative 20,000 per month,” Powell said at yesterday’s press conference.
  • “The labor market has continued to cool gradually, maybe just a touch more gradually than we thought,” he added.

The bottom line: 

CEOs feel more optimistic, though that confidence boost is not expected to translate into more hiring — an unusual dynamic for the economy.

  • “Although the results signal that CEOs are approaching the first half of 2026 with some caution, they are starting to see opportunities for growth,” Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, who chairs the Business Roundtable, said in a statement.
  • “With the Index near its average, it reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy,” he added, citing pro-growth tax policies and fewer regulations.

Senate votes Thursday on rival health plans

Illustration of two politicians holding papers and speaking inside the Capitol Building surrounded by graphic shapes filled with contour line patterns.

The Senate will vote tomorrow on dueling health care plans: Democrats’ proposal to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years, and a plan from two Republican chairmen that would instead give enrollees funds in health savings accounts.

Why it matters: 

The move gives the GOP an alternative to point to if the ACA subsidies expire at the end of the year and health care costs spike for millions of people.

  • But neither plan is expected to get the 60 votes to advance.

Driving the news: 

The plan from Finance Committee chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and health committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) wouldn’t extend the tax credits past their year-end expiration, instead providing $1,000 to $1,500 in health savings accounts to help certain marketplace enrollees with out-of-pocket costs.

  • It’s drawn sharp criticism from some Democrats for leaving working-class Americans saddled with high health costs.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (S.D.) left open the possibility of talks after both votes fail on Thursday, though there is deep skepticism about the chances of reaching a bipartisan agreement.

  • “If neither proposal gets 60 then we’ll see where it goes from there,” Thune said.
  • President Trump, asked later about the Crapo-Cassidy bill and whether Republicans should vote for it, told reporters, “I like the concept. … I love the idea of money going directly to the people.”

Between the lines: 

On the House side, GOP leadership, committee chairs and leaders of House GOP factions met yesterday to discuss health proposals, with an eye toward a possible House vote this year.

  • Members left the meeting tight-lipped, saying discussions are ongoing.
  • The full House Republican conference is expected to discuss health proposals in its meeting this morning ahead of potential votes next week.

The job market’s soft underbelly

For an economy that’s rapidly expanding, the usual drivers of job creation sure aren’t carrying their weight.

Why it matters: 

Anemic job growth in key sectors is a sign that there is more underlying weakness in worker demand than the low unemployment rate might suggest.

  • It makes for a weaker starting point, as companies see new opportunities around the corner to use AI to automate their work.
  • It’s not a new trend: These sectors showed weak job creation or outright job losses for the last couple of years of the Biden administration.
  • But it is striking that a GDP surge fueled by data center and AI investment hasn’t been enough to generate more robust hiring.

By the numbers: 

Overall employment is up 0.8% over the 12 months ended in September, but the hiring has been driven in significant part by health care, state and local government, and other less cyclical sectors.

  • Manufacturing employment is down 0.7% over the last 12 months. Tariffs are weighing on the sector, but its job losses long predate the Trump trade wars, with year-over-year job losses for more than two years.
  • Temporary help employment, which tends to be a volatile indicator underlying growth trends, is down 3%. It has been losing jobs for three consecutive years.
  • Two other sectors that tend to correlate with overall economic momentum, transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade, are also adding jobs at rates below that of overall job growth (0.6% and 0.2%, respectively).

Stunning stat: 

As Bloomberg flagged, two sectors — health care and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality — accounted for more than 100% of net job gains so far in 2025.

  • Excluding those sectors, employment dropped by 6,000 jobs in the first nine months of the year.

Zoom out: 

There’s not much reason to think these numbers are driven by AI-related opportunities for companies to increase productivity and rely on fewer human workers, particularly given that the phenomenon isn’t new.

  • But it is more plausible that seeing such opportunities on the horizon has made companies more reluctant to hire in the absence of overwhelming need.
  • BlackRock chief investment officer for global fixed income Rick Rieder wrote in a note after last week’s jobs report that “what we think we are seeing now is … essentially a hiring pause in anticipation of AI.”

Of note: 

report out this morning from the McKinsey Global Institute finds that AI and robotics technologies could, in theory, automate 57% of U.S. work hours.

  • “AI will not make most human skills obsolete, but it will change how they are used,” the authors find. “As AI takes on common tasks, people will apply their skills in new contexts,” they write, such as less time researching and preparing documents and more time framing questions and interpreting results.

The bottom line: 

Beneath the headline numbers, there is some good reason that attitudes toward the job market are glum.

Medicare’s $11B payment change roils hospitals

The Trump administration is shaking up how health systems are paid for outpatient care with a plan that could reduce Medicare hospital spending by nearly $11 billion over the next decade.

Why it matters: 

It’s a big step forward for “site-neutral” payment policies that have been touted as a way to save taxpayers and patients money, but that hospitals say will lead to service cuts, especially in rural areas.

Driving the news: 

Medicare administrators on Friday finalized a proposal to reduce what the government pays hospitals to administer outpatient drugs, including chemotherapy, at off-campus sites.

  • The move would equalize payment rates to hospitals and physician practices for the same services — an idea that Congress debated last year but didn’t act on in the face of aggressive hospital lobbying.
  • Medicare now pays about $341 for chemotherapy administration in hospital outpatient facilities, compared with $119 for the same service delivered in a doctor’s office.
  • Medicare next year will also start to phase out a list of more than 1,700 procedures and services only covered when they’re delivered in an inpatient setting.

What they’re saying: 

The policy changes will give seniors more choices on where to get a procedure and potentially lower out-of-pocket costs at an outpatient site, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said.

  • Some health policy experts said the change will help make Medicare more affordable.
  • “We hope the administration will continue its efforts and adopt site neutrality for other services in future rules,” Mark Miller, executive vice president of health care at Arnold Ventures, said in a statement.

The other side: 

“Both policies ignore the important differences between hospital outpatient departments and other sites of care,” Ashley Thompson, a senior vice president at the American Hospital Association, said in a statement.

  • The reality is that hospital outpatient departments serve Medicare patients who are sicker, more clinically complex, and more often disabled or residing in rural or low-income areas than the patients seen in independent physician offices.”
  • Hospitals indicated before the rule was finalized that they’d challenge the policy in court if CMS moved forward.

Hospital outpatient departments still will see an $8 billion overall increase in their Medicare payments in 2026.

  • But the Trump administration contends that new technologies and other factors are shortening recovery times for procedures done on an outpatient basis.

Between the lines: 

Health systems still scored a small win when CMS dropped a plan to speed up the repayment of $7.8 billion in improper cuts the first Trump administration made to safety-net providers’ reimbursements in the federal discount drug program.

  • The policy would have clawed back the money from hospitals’ Medicare reimbursements. Scrapping the idea “helps preserve critical resources for patient care during an already challenging time,” Soumi Saha, senior vice president of government affairs at Premier, said in a statement.
  • Still, CMS said it may try again in 2027. And law firm Hooper Lundy Bookman is already sending out feelers to hospitals willing to challenge the version of the repayment plan that will go into effect next year, per an alert sent Friday night.

What we’re watching: 

Whether health systems challenge the site-neutral payment changes. The hospital payment plan came weeks later than expected and will make it harder for facilities to update billing, revise their budgets and train staff, Saha said.

  • The administration is also launching a survey of hospitals’ outpatient drug acquisition costs next year, which is seen as a prelude for cutting reimbursements under the discount drug program.

Sanders pushes Senate Dems to go big on health care deal

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is urging Senate Democrats to unite behind an expansive health care proposal in the party’s negotiations with Republicans to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits.

Why it matters: 

GOP leaders have promised Democrats a vote on the expiring tax credits next month as part of their deal to end the government shutdown.

  • Sanders wants the Democratic proposal to extend the ACA tax credits, repeal $1 trillion in GOP health care cuts, expand Medicare and lower prescription drug prices, he said in a letter to colleagues late Monday.
  • Republicans, however, have signaled that any deal to extend the tax credits must be short term and require reforms.
  • Premiums will more than double for millions of ACA enrollees next year if Congress does not renew enhanced marketplace subsidies by year’s end, according to a new analysis.

The big picture: 

Democratic leaders have argued that the government shutdown has made health care a top political issue.

  • Sanders, the top Democrat on the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said Democrats must make proposals that address “systemic deficiencies.”
  • “We should not be defending a system which is not only, by far, the most expensive in the world, but one which numerous international studies describe as one of the worst,” Sanders wrote to Democratic senators.

Sanders’ HELP committee is expected to be involved in negotiations with Republicans over a potential bipartisan deal to extend the credits next month.

  • A spokesperson for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said: “The bill Democrats bring to the floor will be a caucus product.”

Between the lines: 

Sanders acknowledged in his letter that his Medicare For All proposal “does not yet have majority support” in the caucus. But he said his latest proposal included “much-needed reforms.”

  • Sanders also encouraged Democrats to propose investments to expand primary care services, ban stock buybacks and dividends and substantially reduce CEO compensation in the health care industry.

GOP doubles down on ACA subsidy alternatives

Republicans are taking a harder line against extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies — and doubling down on an alternative plan that would send the money directly to consumers.

Why it matters: 

President Trump’s opposition to an extension makes it increasingly unlikely that Republicans will agree to renew the tax credits, even though it’s not clear how the GOP alternative would work or whether the party can reach a consensus.

Driving the news: 

Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday that the “only” plan he will support is “sending the money directly back to the people,” and that Congress should not “waste your time” on anything else, like a subsidy extension.

  • Trump didn’t elaborate on how his plan would work. The ACA already gives people financial help in buying insurance.

Some GOP proposals envision giving people money for a health savings account on top of existing ACA coverage, mitigating concerns about healthy people leaving the market.

  • Senate health committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) outlined a plan on Monday that would redirect the enhanced subsidy money to an HSA to help pay out-of-pocket costs for people who chose bronze-level ACA plans, which tend to have high deductibles.
  • He argued the move would direct money away from insurance companies and to consumers, and empower them to shop for health services.

Another possible outcome would be allowing people to buy cheaper, skimpier coverage that doesn’t comply with the ACA’s benefit requirements. Some policy experts warn that would destabilize the ACA markets, by prompting an exodus of healthier people.

  • That would leave a sicker risk pool and prompt insurers to raise premiums, resulting in a “death spiral,” said Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF.
  • By contrast, “I don’t think there’s any risk of, you know, a collapse or death spiral, from what Senator Cassidy is talking about,” Levitt said, though without the enhanced subsidies there would still be “potentially millions of people who just won’t be able to afford insurance at all.”

Between the lines: 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wouldn’t rule out a bipartisan solution when asked about Trump’s comments on Tuesday, saying “we’ll see” how negotiations go and that “there’s an openness” to a deal on the GOP side.

  • He said the biggest obstacle, though, could be whether Democrats agree to apply the Hyde Amendment to the subsidies and add restrictions on using the funds for abortions.

The intrigue: 

Cassidy is framing his plan as the most realistic option, given White House and House GOP leadership resistance to the subsidies.

  • “The president is not going to sign a straightforward extension of premium tax credits,” Cassidy said. “So if you actually want something which can pass and get a vote on the House floor, then what the president is proposing is actually a better way.”

Yes, but: 

Democrats believe mounting public concern about rising health costs gives them the upper hand pushing for a subsidy extension.

  • “Sending people a few thousand dollars while doing nothing to lower health care costs is a scheme to help the ultra-wealthy at the expense of working people with cancer or pre-existing conditions,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said in response to Trump’s comments.
  • “Americans want Congress to extend the ACA tax credits to keep health insurance premiums from skyrocketing on January 1,” he added.

The big picture: 

The war of words is further diminishing the chances that a group of moderates in both parties can find a bipartisan agreement to extend the subsidies with some modifications favored by Republicans, like an income cap and anti-fraud measures.

  • House GOP leaders have also been criticizing the subsidies. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said on Fox News on Sunday that the party would be bringing forward legislation in the coming weeks on other ways to lower costs, like expanding HSAs or cracking down on pharmacy benefit managers.
  • The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing Wednesday morning on health care costs, giving senators a chance to stake out their positions further in public.

The bottom line: 

It’s unlikely that Trump’s plan would gain the necessary 60 Senate votes to advance. But it could give Republican senators political cover if they oppose a subsidy extension.

  • Republicans could still opt to use the reconciliation process to pass a bill with a simple majority. Though the White House floated the idea on Tuesday, it’s not clear if any GOP-only plan has the votes to pass.

Layoff Trends

Layoff trends in 2025 indicate an increase in job cuts compared to 2024, with US employers announcing nearly 950,000 cuts through September, the highest number since 2020. Key drivers include cost-cutting measures, the strategic implementation of artificial intelligence (AI), and a cooling labor market. 

Key Trends

  • Elevated Numbers: Total US job cuts through October 2025 were over one million, a 65% increase from the same period in 2024. October 2025 had the highest number of layoffs for that month in 22 years.
  • AI as a Primary Driver: AI adoption is a leading cause for job cuts as companies restructure for efficiency and reallocate resources. Companies like Amazon and Intel have cited AI as a reason for significant workforce reductions.
  • “Forever Layoffs”: A new trend involves smaller, more regular rounds of layoffs (fewer than 50 people) that create ongoing worker anxiety and impact company culture. These rolling cuts often stay out of headlines but contribute significantly to the overall job cuts.
  • Method of Notification: The process is becoming more impersonal, with many employees being notified of their termination via email or phone call rather than in-person meetings.
  • Hiring Slowdown: Alongside the layoffs, there has been a sharp drop in hiring plans, with planned hires for the year at their lowest level since 2011. 

Affected Industries

While tech has been significantly impacted since late 2022, other industries are also facing substantial cuts in 2025: 

  • Technology: Remains a leading sector for cuts as companies continue to restructure after pandemic-era overhiring and focus on AI.
  • Retail and Warehousing: Companies like Target and UPS are cutting thousands of jobs due to changing consumer demands, automation, and a push for efficiency.
  • Energy and Manufacturing: Oil giants such as Chevron and BP are making cuts as part of cost-reduction strategies and market consolidation.
  • Finance and Consulting: Firms like PwC and Morgan Stanley are trimming staff, citing factors like low attrition rates and the need to realign resources.
  • Media and Communications: Companies like CNN and the Washington Post have made cuts to pivot toward digital services and reduce costs. 

Economic Context

The overall U.S. labor market remains relatively healthy despite the uptick in layoffs, though it is showing signs of cooling. The unemployment rate has inched up, and consumer sentiment has declined. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the situation and has implemented interest rate cuts to help stabilize the job market. 

For detailed lists and trackers of layoffs, you can consult resources such as the Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. reports, the TrueUp Layoffs Tracker, and Layoffs.

In-home elder care cost is rising more than three times faster than inflation

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/30/trump-immigration-elder-care

The cost of hiring help to care for an elderly or a sick person at home is skyrocketing.

Why it matters: 

A labor shortage and surging demand from an aging population was already driving up prices, and now the White House’s crackdown on immigration and funding cuts are making things worse.

By the numbers: 

So far this year, the price of in-home care for the elderly, disabled or convalescent at home is up 10%, compared with a rise of 3% for prices overall, according to government data.

  • From just August to September, prices for home health care spiked a staggering 7%.

Zoom in: 

Rising prices and the limited availability of people who do this work are pushing families to make hard choices. Some will put relatives and loved ones into institutions, a more expensive and often less desirable option than staying at home.

  • Others will drop out of the workforce or cut back their hours to care for parents, relatives or partners.
  • The supply of workers is not keeping up with demand, Matthew Nestler, senior economist at KPMG, writes in a post. “That hurts workers and their families, employers and the overall U.S. economy.”

Friction point: 

Last year, employment was surging in home health care, with an average of 13,500 jobs added each month.

  • But after the Trump administration immigration crackdown began in January, employment dropped off, falling into negative territory for three consecutive months in the spring, Nestler noted this summer.
  • This isn’t a matter of demand falling, but a cutoff in supply, he explained.

How it works: 

Immigrants make up 1 in 3 workers in home care settings, per data from KFF, a health care research organization.

  • The severe crackdown this year on undocumented immigrants and the Trump administration’s removal of legal status from workers who are here from Venezuela and other countries are making it hard to find workers, says Mollie Gurian, vice president of policy and government affairs at LeadingAge, an aging-services nonprofit.
  • The supply of workers was already so low,” she says. With fewer folks available, the companies that provide these service are raising prices to put pressure on demand. Others are raising prices in anticipation of cuts to Medicaid funding, she says.

The big picture: 

At the same time that the supply of people to do this work is falling, the number of Americans who need care is rising, as a silver tsunami of baby boomers ages.

The bottom line: 

We are only at the very beginning of a dramatic demographic shift, Nestler says.

  • Elder care is a “ticking time bomb that no one’s talking about.”

Here are 6 ways the government shutdown could get worse for Americans

The government shutdown has left many federal workers furloughed, caused nationwide flight delays, left small businesses unable to access loans and put nonprofit services in jeopardy. It’s only expected to get worse.

As Congress remains deadlocked over passing a stopgap measure to reopen the government, thousands of Americans are at risk of losing benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP); the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC); and other programs at the beginning of November.

An additional burden on Americans is the start of open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as ObamaCare, on Nov. 1, where they will see more costly health insurance premium plans unless lawmakers act. 

Democrats and Republicans have spent weeks pointing fingers at each other, with no deal in sight. The Senate on Tuesday failed to advance a Republican stopgap measure to end the shutdown for the 13th time, while the House was out of session and President Trump was traveling abroad. 

With uncertainty around the shutdown’s timeline growing day by day, here are six ways Americans will start to feel more of the shutdown’s impact.

Federal employees

At least 670,000 federal workers have been furloughed while about 730,000 are working without pay as of Oct. 24, according to data from the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. The center estimates that if the shutdown continues through the beginning of December, federal civilian employees will miss roughly 4.5 million paychecks.

The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), the nation’s largest federal workers union, urged Congress to pass a “clean” funding measure known as a continuing resolution to reopen the government. AFGE President Everett Kelley said in an Oct. 27 statement, “No half measures, and no gamesmanship. Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay — today.” 

However, House and Senate Democrats have resisted pressure from the union.

“I get where they’re coming from. We want the shutdown to end too. But fundamentally, if Trump and Republicans continue to refuse to negotiate with us to figure out how to lower health care costs, we’re in the same place that we’ve always been,” Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) told The Hill on Tuesday.

SNAP and WIC

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said benefits won’t be issued on Nov. 1 for SNAP, a program that helps low-income families afford food. Nearly 42 million Americans rely on SNAP benefits every month, according to data from the USDA.

Though the USDA formed a plan earlier this year that said the department is obligated to use contingency funds to pay out benefits during a shutdown, it has since been deleted. The USDA wrote in a memo this month that the contingency fund is only designed for emergencies such as “natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods, that can come on quickly and without notice.” 

Democratic officials in more than two dozen states sued the Trump administration this week, arguing the USDA is legally required to tap into those funds. But House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has claimed those funds are not “legally available.”

Families who rely on WIC, a program that provides food aid and other services to low-income pregnant and postpartum women, infants, and children younger than 5 years old, could also face trouble. The White House had provided $300 million to WIC to keep the program afloat in early October. But 44 organizations signed on to an Oct. 24 letter from the National WIC Association to the White House requesting an additional $300 million in emergency funds, warning that “numerous states are projected to exhaust their resources for WIC benefits” on Nov. 1. 

Military pay

Payday is coming up at the end of this week for members of the military. 

Earlier this month, Trump directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to “use all available funds” to pay troops. Officials ended up reallocating $8 billion in unspent funds meant for Pentagon research and development efforts toward service members’ paychecks. The administration also received a $130 million donation from a private donor to help cover military members’ paychecks.

Vice President Vance said he believes active-duty service members will get paid this Friday. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan on Sunday that troops could go without pay on Nov. 15 if the shutdown continues.

Senate Democrats blocked a bill sponsored by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) earlier this month to pay active-duty members and other essential federal workers.

ACA subsidies

At the center of the shutdown fight is the ACA subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of this year. Democrats have been urging Republicans to extend the subsidies, arguing that ACA health insurance premium costs will increase if no action is taken. 

Americans can choose their insurance plans for next year on the federal Affordable Care Act exchange website starting Saturday. An analysis from KFF found that without the subsidies extended, Americans will see their marketplace premium payments increase by 114 percent.

Republicans have been firm in their position of reopening the government first before discussing the ACA subsidies.

“The expiring ObamaCare subsidy at the end of the year is a serious problem. If you look at it objectively, you know that it is subsidizing bad policy. We’re throwing good money at a bad, broken system, and so it needs real reforms,” Speaker Johnson said at a Monday press conference.

Head Start

About 140 Head Start programs across 41 states and Puerto Rico serving more than 65,000 children could go dark if the shutdown goes past Nov 1., according to a joint statement from more than 100 national, state and local organizations focused on childhood education and development. 

“Without funding, many of these programs will be forced to close their doors, leaving children without care, teachers without pay, and parents without the ability to work,” the statement says.

Head Start programs are designed to help low-income families and their children from birth to age 5 with a focus on health and wellness services, family well-being and engagement and early learning, according to its website.

Nonprofits

Diane Yentel, president and CEO of the National Council of Nonprofits, told The Hill in a statement that the shutdown has forced many nonprofits to halt their operations because of frozen federal reimbursements and grants. 

The nonprofits include those handling wildfire recovery in Colorado, housing vulnerable youth in Utah and helping with conservation work in Montana, Yentel said. Many federal workers without pay have also turned to their local food banks, further putting a financial strain on nonprofits.

“With the November 1 cutoff of SNAP and WIC looming, the situation will get even worse. Nonprofit food banks are already facing rising grocery costs and increased demand, including from federal workers and military families,” Yentel said. “If millions of Americans suddenly lose access to these life-saving nutrition programs, local nonprofits will be overwhelmed, and far too many seniors, children, and families will go without help.”