Trump administration pressed on details of drug price deals

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/03/trump-drug-price-deals-pfizer-eli-lilly

The Trump administration is facing new pressure to disclose details about its confidential pricing agreements with big drug companies and whether they meaningfully lower costs for patients.

Why it matters: 

President Trump has touted the “most favored nation” drug pricing deals as one of his signature accomplishments, but most of the details have been kept under wraps, including how the new prices are calculated.

Driving the news: 

The advocacy group Public Citizen filed a Freedom of Information Act suit last week, seeking the text of the deals the administration struck with Eli Lilly and Pfizer.

  • Those and other agreements were touted in high-profile Oval Office ceremonies as a step toward lowering U.S. drug prices and aligning them with what’s paid in other developed countries.
  • The deals have been described in broad terms, but questions remain about basic matters like what exactly the companies agreed to.
  • The administration is “shaking hands with pharma CEOs and telling us they fixed drug pricing and then not disclosing any text,” said Peter Maybarduk, access to medicines director at Public Citizen. “It makes it hard to believe, makes it hard to understand, makes it hard to assess.”

Congressional Democrats also wrote to Pfizer, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk in December asking for details of their respective agreements.

  • The letter to Pfizer said the company and the administration seem to be “attempting to shield themselves from oversight, accountability, and specifics that could inform consumers about whether this agreement will save money.”
  • An administration official said: “Because the drug pricing agreements contain confidential, proprietary and commercially sensitive information, they will not be released publicly.”
  • None of the four companies provided more details when asked about the agreements. A Novo Nordisk spokesperson said “this agreement will bring semaglutide medicines to more American patients at a lower cost,” referring to the active ingredient in its blockbuster weight-loss drugs.

Between the lines: 

The deals would for the most part not lower existing drug prices for a huge segment of the public that gets coverage through Medicare or workplace insurance.

  • Instead, the most-favored nation prices would apply to Medicaid. One unanswered question is how much lower would those prices be, since drugmakers already are required to have low prices for Medicaid.
  • The deals also anticipate most-favored nation prices for newly launched drugs in future years. But it’s not fully clear how that would work, since drugs are usually launched in the United States first and there wouldn’t yet be prices abroad to use as a comparison.
  • There would also be discounted drugs sold through the government’s direct-to-consumer website TrumpRx. But the portal is built around cash purchases, which many cannot afford.

The big picture: 

Trump has railed against what he calls “global freeloading” and ending the way the U.S. pays more for drugs than other developed countries. But policy experts have questioned whether manufacturers will only meet him halfway, raising prices abroad without cutting them in the U.S.

  • “You can kind of see why the pharmaceutical industry wouldn’t be so opposed if what they end up getting is maybe a slightly lower price in the U.S. and higher prices in other countries,” said Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF.
  • The Trump administration has also proposed new payment models to incorporate most-favored nation pricing into Medicare, which would lead to savings.
  • But the changes are tests that would only apply in certain geographic areas, and analysts say they would not have a drastic impact on Medicare spending.

The bottom line: 

Maybarduk, of Public Citizen, acknowledged that the goals of the drug pricing efforts are laudable, even if the practical effects remain unclear.

  • “The thing that we agree with here, of course, is that Americans pay too much for drugs, and we pay more than other countries for drugs.”

What is “Medically Necessary”?

How Big Health Insurers hijacked a medical term and built a denial machine around it.

We hear the term “medically necessary” used every day by insurance companies as a reason to deny or delay health care. While doctors were hard at work treating patients, insurers quietly co-opted the term, and that’s causing serious problems now.

If you ask most doctors to define ‘medically necessary,’ you’ll get some version of: “The test, therapy, drug or procedure that will do the best job of treating my patient.” It’s that simple: whatever is best for my patient.

If you ask an insurer, you may get some legal definition about care “provided for the cure or relief of a health condition, illness, injury or disease (looks good so far, but wait there’s more!), and is not for experimental, investigational or cosmetic purposes and is necessary for and appropriate to the….” The problem begins with the meaning of “necessary and appropriate.”

The terms ‘necessary’ and ‘appropriate’ are left to interpretation. My doctor may feel that a certain test or medication is necessary and appropriate, but someone else may disagree. So how do insurers resolve that disagreement? This is where things go off the rails.

They resolve it by having a medical director they employ review what my doctor wants for me – and that medical director becomes the sole arbiter of what care I can have that will be covered by my health plan. That medical director can sign off on a denial of a claim or a request, and many times they justify that denial by saying the treatment isn’t medically necessary – for reasons that are entirely defined by the health plan.

It seems a clear conflict of interest when an anonymous medical director – possibly lacking in both expertise and experience – rejects a course of treatment laid out by a physician specializing in that disease or condition who has a history with that particular patient. But it happens all the time.

These medical directors work for the company that is denying the claim or request. They have been granted stock and stock options in that company. Their bonus is tied to the financial performance of the company. To say they are impartial and doing what is best for the patient is laughable at best.

Frequently, these medical directors are reviewing requests in areas outside their specialty. In addition, they make these determinations without ever seeing the patient, or reviewing the medical records, studies or lab results that led the treating physician to make the recommendation in the first place. An investigation by ProPublica found that Cigna medical directors were signing off on denials once every 1.2 seconds. This isn’t clinical review; this is profit enhancement.

This brings us to another problem: “coverage policies.” Insurance corporations have created a whole library of coverage policies, and they differ from health plan to health plan. If you’ve never read one of these coverage policies let me save you some time and trouble. Get up now and place your head between the door and the door jam. Now slam the door. You just achieved the headache and confusion that reading a long coverage policy would give you in a fraction of the time. You’re welcome.

Even if you read the policy and think it’s got you covered, you still aren’t home free. A medical director can overrule the policy and still deny the care. Also, that coverage policy may be different for each health plan, and they change from time to time. I am struck by this basic question: Why should the care you receive depend on the insurance card in your wallet and not your clinical situation? The answer, of course, is because that’s how the insurance companies want it.

So, what do we do about this? Let me give you two relatively easy solutions.

First, follow a coverage policy.

If only there was a group of doctors that represented every specialty, we could get them to meet and determine universal coverage policies that could be mandated for all health insurance, both government and commercial. Wouldn’t that be nice? Doctors could then provide good care to patients without having to figure out a library of different coverage policies. Wait, a group like that does exist. It’s called the RUC.

The RUC (Relative Value Scale Update Committee) is an American Medical Association specialty panel, a volunteer group of 32 physicians and over 300 physician advisors who represent every medical specialty. The committee evaluates thousands of individual services across the medical spectrum. Why don’t we ask them to develop a universal set of clinical coverage policies?

Second, fix the denial system. Pass a law that says whenever an insurer denies payment or a request for care, that denial must be signed by a medical doctor, and signing that denial qualifies as “the practice of medicine.” This would make those denials and the doctor who signed off on them subject to all the responsibilities and accountabilities required to practice medicine.

This includes:

  • having an active license in the state where the patient is seeking care; practicing within your specialty;
  • documenting your decision-making in the patient’s medical record, including the information you reviewed to come to your decision; and
  • being liable for malpractice if your decision causes harm to the patient and is not clinically justified.

Let’s assume we had this in place right now and applied it to a real-world situation: the GLP-1 coverage debate. When these glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs for diabetes and weight loss came to market they would have gone before the RUC for a clinical coverage policy. Let’s say the RUC determines that the drugs should be covered for individuals with a BMI over 30 who have tried and failed other diet programs, or for people with a BMI between 25 and 30 who have significant cardiac risk or are diabetic.

Now we have a universal coverage guideline. The doctors prescribing the drug have a very clear understanding of who will be covered and when, and it would apply to all patients regardless of which insurance company they had. As long as the prescribing physician stays inside the guidelines, no denials would be expected.

Let’s take an example from the flip side. A doctor wants to prescribe an expensive chemotherapy regimen to an elderly patient with cancer. The insurer could have that request reviewed and possibly denied by a medical director. However, that medical director would need to be an oncologist with a valid license in the state where the patient is getting treatment. If that oncologist reviews the patient information, denies the chemotherapy for valid clinical reasons, and documents those reasons in the patient’s chart, then the insurer can deny the request.

These two changes would eliminate so many problems, improve the lives of doctors, improve the lives of patients, and reduce administrative costs.

So why hasn’t this been done already? Well the one thing these changes would not do is increase the stock prices of insurance companies.

To put it more succinctly, it’s profits over patients. That’s why.

The health care hiring boom is losing steam

The health care job growth that’s powered the labor market since the COVID pandemic is stalling out.

Why it matters: 

Republican cuts to federal health programs, AI automation and rising costs are making health systems and other employers level off hiring — including for jobs requiring a professional license like nurses or physical therapists.

  • The results could widen gaps in care and exacerbate health disparities.

By the numbers: 

Health care employment drove most of the month-by-month job growth last year, increasing by an average of 34,000 jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • But that’s less than health care’s monthly average increase of 56,000 roles in 2024.

Health care hiring has essentially returned to a pre-pandemic pattern of slower growth after a post-COVID surge driven by returning patients and hospitals replacing burned-out workers, said Neale Mahoney, an economics professor at Stanford.

  • “It was only a question of when … and we’re starting to see it now,” Mahoney said.

Federal policy changes could further chill hiring.

  • Hospitals face financial pressure from the nearly $1 trillion cut to federal Medicaid spending in the GOP budget law. That’s combined with rising costs from treating more uninsured patients and other factors.
  • New caps on federal student loan borrowing could also push students away from clinical careers, many of which require pricey advanced degrees.
  • It wouldn’t be a surprise if a rise in deportations — combined with fewer foreign-born health workers opting to come to the U.S. on visas — dried up the pipeline of available help, especially in segments like home care.

Case in point: 

Alameda Health System, a safety-net provider based in Oakland, California, announced last month that it’s laying off 247 employees, including clinicians.

  • Administrators cited the system’s precarious finances: It expects to lose $100 million annually by 2030 as a result of the Medicaid cuts, per CBS San Fransisco.

AI automation is also pushing some providers to cut administrative staff.

  • Revere Health, the largest physician-owned health system in Utah, announced in September that it will lay off 177 employees, citing a partnership with a company that automates claims processing.
  • Clinical jobs in health care are more insulated from automation, and AI may actually help extend the clinical workforce where shortages exist.
  • Still, some clinicians are concerned. Almost 15,000 nurses in New York City went on strike this month, demanding new safeguards around AI use in hospitals, among other things.

What they’re saying: 

This past year represented “a repositioning of the labor market,” said Rick Gundling, chief mission impact officer at the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

  • Health systems are doing more targeted hiring, he said. They might look to downsize in revenue management but increase their clinical staff.

The intrigue: 

Demand for care is still high. The “silver tsunami” of aging Baby Boomers may keep jobs plentiful, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab.

  • The U.S. is projected to be short some 100,000 health care workers by 2028, after all.
  • The question is whether the sector will remain near full employment, or whether circumstances will drive another surge.
  • “My opinion as an economist is that the tailwinds are stronger than the headwinds in health care,” she said.

JPM Health Conference 2026: The Trump Effect

This week, 8000 healthcare operators and investors will head west to the 44th Annual JP Morgan Health Conference in San Francisco. Per JPM: “The (invitation-only) conference serves as a vital platform for networking, deal-making, and discussing the latest innovations in healthcare, attracting global industry leaders, emerging companies, and members of the investment community.” Daily media coverage will be provided by Modern Healthcare and STAT and most of the agenda will be at the St. Francis Hotel at Union Square.

General sessions about drug discovery, AI in healthcare obesity and more are scheduled, but that’s not why most make the trip. Representatives of the 500 presenting companies are there to engage with health investors in the tightly orchestrated speed-dating format JPM has fine-tuned through the years.

JPM circa 44 will be no different this year. It’s scheduled as company financials and market indicators for 2025 are coming in. Healthcare deal-flow was robust and bell-weather companies had a good year overall. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq ended the year at all-time highs and investors appear poised to do more healthcare deals in 2026.  Despite growing voter concern about affordability and their costs of living, there’s nothing on the immediate horizon that will dampen healthcare investor appetite for deals. That includes policy changes from the Trump administration that advantage healthcare companies that adapt to the administration’s playbook. It’s built on 3 fundamental assumptions:

  • The healthcare system is fundamentally flawed. Waste, fraud and abuse are deep-seeded in its SOP. It protects its own and resists accountability. The public wants change.
  • Fixing the health system requires policy changes that are attractive to the private companies that currently operate in the system. A federally-mandated regulatory framework (aka “the Affordable Care Act”) will cost more and be harmful. Companies, not Congress, are keys to system transformation.
  • Voters will support changes that make healthcare services more affordable and accessible. The means toward that end are less important.  

What’s evolved from the administration’s first year in office is a mode of operating that’s predictable and uncomfortable to industries like healthcare:

It’s transactional, not ideologic. The administration believes its control of Congress, SCOTUS, the FTC and DOJ and legislatures in red states give it license to disrupt norms with impunity. Price transparency, limits on consolidation, mandated participation in ACOs, supply-chain disruption and AI-enabled workforce modernization are ripe for administrative action. A long-term vision for the system is not required to make needed short-term changes supported by its MAHA base.

It’s populism vs. corporatization. Healthcare’s proclivity for self-praise, addiction to “Best of…” recognition, celebrity CEOs and handsome executive compensation have postured it as “Big Business” in the eyes of most. Business practices associated with corporatization are fair game to the administration’s corrective agenda: hearings in the House Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committees will showcase the administration’s populist grievances. The administration will lavish advantages on private organizations that demonstrate support for its policies.

This week, the Senate will probably green-light a two-year extension of Tax Credits to temporarily avoid premium hikes. Barring a major escalation of tension abroad, attention will turn back to affordability where the K-economy is exacting its toll on lower-and-middle income households and widening despair among the young.

The health system’s role in making matters better or worse for consumers will be front and center alongside housing and costs of living. That context will be key to discussions between health investors and companies seeking their funds, though subordinate to term sheets.

In 2026, the Trump effect on dealmaking in healthcare will be significant.

When Drug Price Transparency Isn’t Enough

Policymakers and advocates often promote drug price transparency to lower costs and improve equity. While transparency is an important first step toward accountability and informed public budgeting, it does not guarantee affordable prices or fair access to medicines.

Transparency Has Some Benefits

Drug price transparency helps show how and why medicines cost what they do along the supply chain (i.e., from the manufacturer to the pharmacy), which makes it easier to identify where costs can be reduced or better regulated. By making this information public, transparency allows patients, payers, and policymakers to make more informed decisions and encourage manufacturers to prices drugs more fairly. Ultimately, it supports a fairer system where patients can better afford and obtain the treatments they need, improving access to care.

States with Drug Transparency Laws

While federal policy to improve price transparency is lacking, the states have moved to make things clearer for patients and payers. Vermont was the first U.S. state to enact a drug price transparency law in 2016. Since then, many others have followed suit. At least 14 states have passed some version of transparency legislation, though the details and their enforcement of these laws differ widely.

For example, only Vermont and Maine require drug companies or insurers to disclose the actual prices paid after discounts (called the “net price”). Alternately, Oregon and Nevada require drug manufacturers to publicly report their profit to state government agencies. And Connecticut, Louisiana, and Nevada mandate pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) to report the total rebates they receive, but not the amounts for each specific drug. Despite these efforts, no state has yet achieved full transparency across the entire drug supply chain.

Transparency is Not Enough

Even with clear pricing, Americans still pay about 2.6 times more for prescription drugs than people in other wealthy countries. Early evidence suggests that these laws have done little to curb drug prices. To date, only four states – CaliforniaMaineMinnesota, and Oregon – have published analyses of their own laws. These reports share common concerns: difficulty tracking pricing across the supply chain and uncertainty about whether state agencies have the authority (or the will) to act when data is incomplete or unreliable. 

Most transparency laws fall short on requiring detailed cost or profit data, focusing instead on broad price trends. As a result, this narrow scope makes it difficult to identify the exact drivers of high drug prices. Even when transparency discourages manufacturers from raising prices, these policies do not directly control pricing or define what constitutes an ‘unjustified’ price increase. Manufacturers can simply adjust by setting higher launch prices or implementing smaller, more frequent increases to stay below reporting thresholds. Still, the result is a system where drug costs can vary by as much as $719 for the same 30-day prescription even when prices are publicly listed.

What can also be done?

Creating a consistent national framework could replace the current patchwork of state laws and improve oversight of how drugs are priced. For example, the Drug Price Transparency in Medicaid Act (H.R. 2450) could do just that: it would standardize reporting requirements and reveal how drug prices are set, rebated, and reimbursed. But transparency alone can’t lower costs—it only shows the problem.

To make transparency meaningful, policymakers must address the underlying contracts and incentives that drive high prices.

Hidden rebate deals and opaque pricing structures between PBMs and drugmakers often inflate costs and limit patients from seeing savings. Transparency legislation should also be paired with value-based pricing that links payments to clinical benefits. Federal programs like the Medicare Drug Negotiation Program provide additional leverage, but broader reforms are needed to reach the commercial market (i.e., where most Americans get their prescription drugs and still face high prices).

Still, transparency can have downsides, especially globally. Fully public drug prices could push companies to stop offering lower prices in low- and middle-income countries. To avoid cross-country comparisons, they could raise prices across the board, making medicines less affordable where they’re needed most. To make transparency more equitable, policymakers should combine disclosure with protections that preserve affordability worldwide.

Conclusion

In short, transparency is necessary but an incomplete fix for America’s drug pricing system. Simply shining a light on how prices are set isn’t enough. Policymakers need to be paired with other reforms, such as removing the incentives that encourage high prices, holding PBMs and manufacturers accountable, extending the negotiating power beyond Medicare, and protecting prescription drug access both at home and abroad. Without these other steps, transparency laws risk highlighting unfairness without actually improving it.

Health package might move ahead without ACA deal

Congressional negotiators are working to revive the health care deal that was dropped from a government spending package in late 2024 — but the odds of resurrecting enhanced Obamacare subsidies as part of the effort appear dire.

Why it matters: 

Long-stalled bipartisan priorities that are in play include an overhaul of pharmacy benefit manager practices, as well as a measure that would place more controls on Medicare outpatient spending.

  • They’d likely be combined with a renewal of health programs due to expire Jan. 30, including certain Medicare telehealth flexibilities and funding for community health centers.

Driving the news: 

Leadership and health committees in both parties have quietly swapped offers on a package over the past week while attention was primarily focused on the fight over expired Affordable Care Act tax credits.

  • Democrats included a three-year extension of the ACA subsidies in their latest offer knowing that GOP leadership is likely to reject it, sources said.
  • That would still leave intact most of the health care deal that was destined to ride on a government funding package before it was scuttled at the last minute by Elon Musk and then President-elect Donald Trump.

What we’re hearing: 

Asked about the likelihood of a health package without the ACA subsidies, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) pointed to the overwhelming 26-0 vote in his committee for the PBM overhaul in 2023.

  • “I’m not going to negotiate with myself but the reality is I think a 26-0 vote in the Senate … it’s like unheard of,” Wyden told Axios, adding he is “feeling upbeat” about getting the PBM bill over the finish line.
  • Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) also told Axios he is “feeling optimistic” about the PBM bill, saying there is “broad support here and at the White House.”
  • That measure includes provisions like “delinking” the price of a drug from PBM compensation in Medicare Part D.

The prospective package would also include a measure that would require off-campus hospital outpatient departments to have a unique identifier number.

  • It’s a cost-saving measure designed to prevent outpatient departments from billing payers at higher amounts associated with full-service hospitals.
  • But it would stop short of a full-scale, more sweeping change known as site-neutral payments that would more closely align Medicare payments to hospital outpatient departments with freestanding physician offices.

The intrigue: 

The outlook for renewing enhanced ACA subsidies, which help millions of Americans afford their premiums, is much bleaker.

  • While a separate bipartisan group of senators continues to meet in search of a compromise, a key negotiator, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), told reporters on Tuesday that a release of a proposal would be punted until after next week’s Senate recess.
  • Even if the group can release a proposal — which would include GOP-backed changes like eliminating $0 premium plans — there is deep skepticism in both parties that it can actually pass.
  • Many Republicans are opposed to any kind of ACA subsidy extension, saying it is wasteful spending that benefits insurance companies.

Top Democrats are pushing for a clean subsidy extension without GOP-backed changes and blasting Republicans for blocking it, in what could be a preview of midterm campaign messaging.

Between the lines: 

There still are significant divisions over whether to include new limits on the ACA funding going to plans that cover abortions.

  • The bipartisan group has discussed a potential compromise that would increase audits and levy penalties on insurance companies that don’t comply with existing rules requiring them to segregate taxpayer money from paying for abortions.
  • The idea immediately drew fire from the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, and many Senate Republicans think it does not go far enough.

The bottom line: 

There still could be an election-year health deal — just don’t expect it to address ACA subsidies.

Healthcare Jobs Report

The Lead Brief.

The health services industry was once again a bright spot in the economic data in today’s jobs report, which otherwise landed with a thud and capped off the weakest year for overall hiring since the pandemic.

The growth underscores how much health care employers are propping up the overall labor market — accounting for most of the gains, both in sheer numbers and percentage growth.

“The fundamental reason why health care employment continues to grow so strongly is that the aging population continues to boost demand for health care services,” said Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The population will continue to age, so that fundamental driver of demand continues.

Behind the numbers: Although economists expect the health industry to continue expanding, they note that 2025 represented a slowdown from the previous year. Although many factors are at play, multiple analysts said the Trump administration’s restrictive immigration policies may be to blame. More on that later.
It’s not a huge surprise that people working in places such as hospitals, dentists’ offices and nursing homes represent the largest growth in hiring: Health care makes up about 18 percent of the overall U.S. economy — which means that $1 out of every $5 that Americans spend goes to health care. Advertisement 

But this also highlights how health services hiring is keeping broader U.S. employment from sliding — even as other industries cool. Patients and providers alike are bracing for cost and workforce pressures in 2026.

Dive in: Although the number of people working in health services increased by more than 404,000 in 2025, it’s still a slowdown from the level of growth the sector saw the year before. In 2025, the health industry added about 34,000 workers per month, according to federal data, compared to an average monthly gain of 56,000 health jobs in 2024. This included people working in hospitals, residential care facilities or nursing homes, diagnostic labs, and for home health providers .

Here’s how it breaks down:
Hospitals represented the highest employment growth rate — 2.9 percent — in the health services industry, followed by jobs at nursing homes and residential care facilities, at 2.5 percent.

“We’re getting older and sicker. And, on top of that, we’re getting older and sicker in a way [where] we don’t have young people around to take care of the older, sicker people, right?” said Richard Frank, economic studies senior fellow at Brookings and director of its Center on Health Policy.  Advertisement 

“So what used to be long-term care delivered by family members when we had four or five kids per household, that looks very different today,” Frank said. “You’re going to have to pay people to do that work.

”While economists anticipate health care hiring to continue to grow — in part for that very reason — there two major policy shifts loom as a dark cloud over the industry and may impact the health services workforce.

Immigration: Providers around the country have said that the Trump administration’s approach to immigration has hampered their ability to hire people. The administration has been cracking down on legal immigration as well as on people who have come to the U.S. illegally. Meanwhile, immigrants make up 28 percent of the long-term care workforce and 32 percent of home care workers, according to KFF.

Medicaid cuts: The Republicans’ tax-and-domestic-policy law enacted last July is expected to slash nearly $1 trillion from the Medicaid program for low-income Americans. Researchers estimate that this will hammer the balance sheets of many hospitals, which are likely to see an influx in patients seeking care but are unable to pay for it. Hospitals and health clinics are already shutting down or laying off workers across the country. Although the Medicaid policy changes — which won’t fully kick in for years — aren’t the only reason for the closures, it shows how vulnerable many providers already are.

Other changes, including the proposed cuts to the National Institutes of Health, could trickle down to communities with research hospitals and ultimately impact the labor market, according to research from the Brookings Institution. New Medicare payment policies that aim to shift care away from expensive hospital services and toward primary care could also have an impact, although it likely won’t be large enough to show up in the data, I’m told.

However: Some states are working to offset some of the administration’s immigration policy changes or health program cuts, which could make it hard to evaluate their impact in the next round of employment data. “There are a lot of … crosswinds blowing in the aggregate that might cover up” the overall impact of these policies,” said Frank.

Other data: Employment in what the government calls “individual and family services” — listed under the “social assistance” category — increased by more than 289,000 people in 2025, representing a nearly 9 percent increase over 2024. These jobs include personal care aides, social workers and substance abuse counselors.

Healthcare 2026: Three Realities

Congress returns to DC this week to debate the merits of extending the advanced premium tax credits that enable coverage for 4 million in a climate of high anxiety about U.S. intervention in Venezuela and heightened tension with Russia and China.

For many, these unfolding events are numbing: helplessness, frustration and fear are widespread. As 2026 unfolds for U.S. healthcare, the realities are these:

  • The healthcare economy will be under pressure to do more with less. The health economy is increasingly controlled by private investors and large publicly traded companies in every sector whose shareholder obligations are primary. Public funding from federal, state and local sources is shrinking as a result of the Big Beautiful Bill and pushback from taxpayers who think the system wasteful and ineffective. The S&P Health Index for 2025 closed the year underperforming the broader market. Private equity investments in healthcare except AI solutions that reduce operating costs at scale are troubled. Thus, in 2026, operating margins in every sector will be stressed, access to private capital will be vital and business as usual obsolete.
  • Mass populism will magnify attention to the healthcare affordability. Per polls, costs of living are issue one to voters. While prices for gas and groceries have moderated, housing and healthcare prices have escalated unabated. Voters think both essential but the majority think consolidation, corporatization and regulatory protections advantage the biggest players and protect special interests. In housing, it’s simpler for consumers: mortgages, rent and utility costs are straightforward. But healthcare is more complicated: out of pocket costs—premiums, co-pays, deductibles, caregivers, OTC et al—are not easily calculable and price estimator tools, patient support and revenue cycle management policies make it easier for consumers. The net result: a large and growing majority of voters think healthcare is unaffordable and government intervention needed.
  • The mid-term election November 3, 2026 will be likely be the reset for healthcare’s future in 2028 and beyond. All 435 House Seats, 35 U.S. Senate seats and 39 state/territorial governors will be elected. All will face voters anxious about the future and how they’ll pay their bills. The 2026 results will set the stage for 2028 Presidential campaigns that will feature a wide range of alternatives to the healthcare status quo. Some will be incremental; others labeled radical. But all will promise changes unwelcome to many of its prominent incumbents.

Each sector in healthcare—hospitals, physician services, long-term care, insurers, life science manufacturers, enablers and advisors—is vulnerable. None welcomes unflattering attention and all spend heavily on messaging and advocacy to protect themselves.  All recognize the elephant in the room—large employers that have patiently funded the system’s profitability and value protective regulation that limit disruption. And in all, implementation of AI solutions that lower operating costs and streamline performance is THE immediate priority.

The realties of 2026 for healthcare are foreboding: business as usual is not an option.

Why health insurance is getting more expensive

There’s a good chance your health insurance premiums are going up next year, regardless of where you get coverage.

Why it matters: 

The spike in what millions of Affordable Care Act plan enrollees pay will be acute, but workplace insurance is getting more expensive, too — and all at a time when affordability is prominently on Americans’ minds.

ACA premiums have dominated the political discourse in Congress for weeks, but there’s no real sign that any relief is coming from Washington.

  • Even extending the Biden-era enhanced ACA subsidies — which most Republicans don’t want to do — would do nothing to address what’s driving the surging cost of care or employer insurance affordability issues.
  • And all signs point to Democrats hammering Republicans for high costs in all forms of health insurance leading up to next year’s midterm elections.

The big picture: 

Health insurance gets more expensive almost every year, keeping up with increases in the costs of procedures, tests, drugs and more. But some years see bigger jumps than others, and 2026 is looking like one of those years.

  • That means tough choices for families, employers and workers all faced with shouldering higher premiums or out-of-pocket spending. Some will conclude it’s prohibitively expensive and go uninsured.
  • Another thing that’s different about this year is that the white-hot political rancor around ACA premiums is putting health insurance back centerstage politically.

By the numbers: 

ACA insurers themselves are raising premiums by an estimated 26%, in part due to rising hospital costs, higher demand for pricey GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, and the threat of tariffs.

  • But add in the loss of federal subsidies, and the increase is 114% — or more than double what they currently pay, according to KFF. 22 million out of 24 million marketplace enrollees now receive subsidies.
  • Premiums in the small group employer market will go up by a median of 11%, also per KFF, due to some of the same reasons insurers cite in ACA markets.

For employer health insurance, there’s no comprehensive data yet for 2026, but estimates from earlier this year put the increases in the high single digits.

When Drug Price Transparency Isn’t Enough

Policymakers and advocates often promote drug price transparency to lower costs and improve equity. While transparency is an important first step toward accountability and informed public budgeting, it does not guarantee affordable prices or fair access to medicines.

Transparency Has Some Benefits

Drug price transparency helps show how and why medicines cost what they do along the supply chain (i.e., from the manufacturer to the pharmacy), which makes it easier to identify where costs can be reduced or better regulated. By making this information public, transparency allows patients, payers, and policymakers to make more informed decisions and encourage manufacturers to prices drugs more fairly. Ultimately, it supports a fairer system where patients can better afford and obtain the treatments they need, improving access to care.

States with Drug Transparency Laws

While federal policy to improve price transparency is lacking, the states have moved to make things clearer for patients and payers. Vermont was the first U.S. state to enact a drug price transparency law in 2016. Since then, many others have followed suit. At least 14 states have passed some version of transparency legislation, though the details and their enforcement of these laws differ widely.

For example, only Vermont and Maine require drug companies or insurers to disclose the actual prices paid after discounts (called the “net price”). Alternately, Oregon and Nevada require drug manufacturers to publicly report their profit to state government agencies. And Connecticut, Louisiana, and Nevada mandate pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) to report the total rebates they receive, but not the amounts for each specific drug. Despite these efforts, no state has yet achieved full transparency across the entire drug supply chain.

Transparency is Not Enough

Even with clear pricing, Americans still pay about 2.6 times more for prescription drugs than people in other wealthy countries. Early evidence suggests that these laws have done little to curb drug prices. To date, only four states – CaliforniaMaineMinnesota, and Oregon – have published analyses of their own laws. These reports share common concerns: difficulty tracking pricing across the supply chain and uncertainty about whether state agencies have the authority (or the will) to act when data is incomplete or unreliable. 

Most transparency laws fall short on requiring detailed cost or profit data, focusing instead on broad price trends. As a result, this narrow scope makes it difficult to identify the exact drivers of high drug prices. Even when transparency discourages manufacturers from raising prices, these policies do not directly control pricing or define what constitutes an ‘unjustified’ price increase. Manufacturers can simply adjust by setting higher launch prices or implementing smaller, more frequent increases to stay below reporting thresholds. Still, the result is a system where drug costs can vary by as much as $719 for the same 30-day prescription even when prices are publicly listed.

What can also be done?

Creating a consistent national framework could replace the current patchwork of state laws and improve oversight of how drugs are priced. For example, the Drug Price Transparency in Medicaid Act (H.R. 2450) could do just that: it would standardize reporting requirements and reveal how drug prices are set, rebated, and reimbursed. But transparency alone can’t lower costs—it only shows the problem.

To make transparency meaningful, policymakers must address the underlying contracts and incentives that drive high prices.

Hidden rebate deals and opaque pricing structures between PBMs and drugmakers often inflate costs and limit patients from seeing savings. Transparency legislation should also be paired with value-based pricing that links payments to clinical benefits. Federal programs like the Medicare Drug Negotiation Program provide additional leverage, but broader reforms are needed to reach the commercial market (i.e., where most Americans get their prescription drugs and still face high prices).

Still, transparency can have downsides, especially globally. Fully public drug prices could push companies to stop offering lower prices in low- and middle-income countries. To avoid cross-country comparisons, they could raise prices across the board, making medicines less affordable where they’re needed most. To make transparency more equitable, policymakers should combine disclosure with protections that preserve affordability worldwide.

Conclusion

In short, transparency is necessary but an incomplete fix for America’s drug pricing system. Simply shining a light on how prices are set isn’t enough. Policymakers need to be paired with other reforms, such as removing the incentives that encourage high prices, holding PBMs and manufacturers accountable, extending the negotiating power beyond Medicare, and protecting prescription drug access both at home and abroad. Without these other steps, transparency laws risk highlighting unfairness without actually improving it.