‘Covid-hell.’ ‘Humanitarian disaster.’ Experts sound the alarm about U.S. coronavirus outbreak.

Public health experts sound alarm about coronavirus in the United States -  The Washington Post

Public health experts are sounding the alarm about the trajectory of the pandemic in the United States as the coronavirus spreads through the country largely unabated and officials muse aloud about the possibility of fresh lockdowns.

The experts use different language to underscore the situation’s urgency: Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Tom Frieden said the nation is experiencing a “dangerous time.” CNN chief medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta called the crisis a “humanitarian disaster.” Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, who was recently named to President-elect Joe Biden’s coronavirus task force, described the situation bluntly as “covid-hell.”

Their warnings come amid widespread fatigue with restrictions, even as the virus is nowhere near finished rampaging across the country. Although several states implemented new mitigation measures this week, many people have been letting down their guards or, in some cases, vowing outright to ignore the rules.

Fourteen states, mostly in the Midwest, had reported record numbers of hospitalizations by midday Thursday as the seven-day average number of cases reached highs in 23 states, from Nevada to Maryland, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. Hospital officials predicted that they could soon face excruciating decisions about how to prioritize care as they run short on beds and staff.

“Our hospitals are full,” Megan Ranney, an emergency medicine professor at Brown University, said in an interview. “Our workers are getting sick. And it is simply overwhelming the system.”

The rapid rise in hospitalizations could foreshadow a long period of rising deaths, said Scott Gottlieb, former director of the Food and Drug Administration. Although improvements in care have pushed the mortality rate below 1 percent in the United States, 1,549 people died of the virus Wednesday, the highest toll since April.

The distribution of hospitalizations across the country means it will be hard for health-care workers from one region of the country to serve as backup in another area, Gottlieb wrote on Twitter. The only slightly reassuring news is that most hospitals have not entered true crisis mode, he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“Every hospital system is a little pressed right now,” Gottlieb said. “There’s only a handful that are really overwhelmed: Wisconsin, parts of Texas, Utah, South and North Dakota.”

But the trends suggest that that could change. Osterholm said ballooning numbers of infections nationwide mean more hospitals could soon look like those in El Paso, where health-care workers are bringing in mobile morgues and airlifting patients to other cities.

“We have to tell the story of what’s coming; people don’t want to hear that El Paso isn’t an isolated event,” he told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. “It will become the norm.”

Frieden tweeted that the United States has entered “the exponential phase” of virus spread and that the situation will worsen significantly before it improves. But he emphasized that policy decisions have an impact, and throwing in the towel is the wrong solution.

“Not all of the US is experiencing the same rate of Covid spread — some states are doing much better than others,” he wrote. “For example, South Dakota (the state with the highest rate) has 100 times more spread than Vermont right now.”

Individual decisions also make a difference, Gottlieb said, especially as people prepare to travel and visit people outside their household for Thanksgiving. The transmission of the virus tracks closely with people’s movement in their communities.

“If people on the whole just go to the store one less time a week, you could substantially reduce spread,” Gottlieb said on “Squawk Box.”

The lack of that kind of self-sacrifice is one factor that Ranney said she believes is contributing to the virus surging to a far greater extent than it did in the spring. New rules from local and state governments, such as curfews, have been relatively mild compared to the widespread shutdowns of March and April.

The holiday season, meanwhile, is a looming danger that Ranney expects will lead to a “deadly” spike in infections. The virus’s prevalence across the country means that this is the worst time for people to increase their risk of transmission by attending family-centric celebrations, she said.

The likelihood that there will be an easily available vaccine next year is the light at the end of the tunnel. But in the meantime, Ranney said people need to fight the urge to pretend that life is normal and instead seek ways to socialize more safely — outdoors, at a distance and while wearing masks.

“A vaccine is coming. This is not forever,” she said. “But right now, we’ve got to stop this chain of transmission.”

U.S. lockdown not inevitable, Fauci says. But the numbers are horrendous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/12/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/why-experts-say-nationwide-mask-use-is-currently-the-best-strategy-to-combat-coronavirus/2020/11/11/f98b67bf-bb19-4acf-9efb-0ab91a3386dc_video.html

Should I wear a mask? You'll soon face growing pressure, experts say.

The United States’ top infectious-disease expert, Anthony S. Fauci, cautioned against despair as the country endures a surge in covid-19 cases unlike anything it has previously seen. A record high of 145,835 new cases were reported Wednesday, just one week after the U.S. hit 100,000 cases for the first time. At least 65,000 Americans are hospitalized with covid-19, according to The Post’s latest data.

In an interview with “Good Morning America” on Thursday, Fauci insisted that the United States could still make it through the winter without a national lockdown “if we can just hang in there” and adopt stronger social distancing habits until vaccines arrive.

Covid Trends

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.4M new tests and 144k cases, another all-time high. 65.4k people are hospitalized, 15k more than on election day. The death toll was 1,421, pushing the 7-day average over 1,000.

4 bar charts showing key COVID-19 metrics for the US over time. Today, states reported 1.4M tests, 144k cases, 65.4k currently hospitalized, and 1,421 deaths.

On a per capita basis, more people are now dying across the Midwest than even at the peak of the summer surge in the South.

4 bar charts showing regional new deaths per million with 7-day average lines. The Midwest has now crossed the South's peak over the summer.

Hospitalizations are now rising very quickly. The last three days standout, but across all of November, we’re averaging 1,636 more current hospitalizations each day.

A chart showing daily hospitalization changes with three monthly average values: September -152, October +532, and November +1,636.

38 states reported over 1,000 cases today.

On the left, a cartogram showing new cases in every U.S. state and the District of Columbia. On the right, a chart with 4 columns showing states grouped into 4 buckets: Under 500 (14 states), 501-1000 (4 states), 1001-5000 (29 states), 5001-10,000 (7 states), 10,000+ (2 states).

*Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread* (tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from @COVID19Tracking)

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Cartoon – Rounding the Turn

Rounding the turn - Political cartoons by P. Roka - Medium

Trump Predicted ‘Covid, Covid, Covid’ Would End After The Election. It’s Worse Than Ever

PolitiFact - Trump's claim is False. "Rounding the corner"... | Facebook

TOPLINE

In the days and weeks leading up to Election Day, President Donald Trump claimed that the “fake news media” chose to focus on Covid-19 to damage his campaign, predicting that once November 4th arrived, Americans would not hear about the virus anymore, however, in the seven days since that date, infections and hospitalizations have spiked to unseen levels, shattering previous records.

KEY FACTS

The United States reported a record-setting high of 139,855 new positive cases on Tuesday and 1,448 coronavirus deaths, according to a New York Times database. 

In the seven days since Nov. 4, there has been an average of 123,315 new cases per day (a total of 863,205), which is the highest daily average ever recorded in any nation, and an increase of 69% from the average just two weeks earlier.

According to the Covid Tracking Project, a record high of 61,964 people are currently hospitalized in the United States.

A total of 7,021 Americans have been killed by the virus since November 4th, as the daily average death count has risen above 1,000 for the first time since August. 

CRITICAL QUOTE: 

“That’s all I hear about now. That’s all I hear. Turn on television—’Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ A plane goes down. 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it,” Trump told his supporters at a campaign rally in Lumberton, North Carolina, on October 24th. “Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ By the way, on November 4, you won’t hear about it anymore,”

KEY BACKGROUND:

On October 27th, Trump tweeted: “ALL THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA WANTS TO TALK ABOUT IS COVID, COVID, COVID. ON NOVEMBER 4th, YOU WON’T BE HEARING SO MUCH ABOUT IT ANYMORE. WE ARE ROUNDING THE TURN!!! In August, speaking at Republican National Convention, Trump asserted that Democrats were imposing restrictions to damage the economy. He prognosticated that these left-leaning states would reopen after the election. “On November 4th, it will all open up,” said the president, adding, “They want to make our numbers look as bad as possible for the election.” Back in May, Eric Trump, during an appearance on Fox News, said the Democrats “will milk it every single day between now and November 3rd, and guess what, after November 3rd, coronavirus will magically all of a sudden go away and disappear.” In late October, Trump alleged, “Until November 4th., Fake News Media is going full-on Covid, Covid, Covid.” Although the coronavirus is raging out of control, the president has yet to address the pandemic since the election. Trump has tweeted 149 times since Nov. 3 but has not once mentioned Covid, Covid-19, or the coronavirus. Nor has he offered an update to U.S. citizens on how the federal government plans to counteract this most recent nationwide outbreak. 

TANGENT:

Vice President Mike Pence is the head of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, Pence was scheduled to vacation in Sanibel, Florida, Tuesday through Saturday this week. However, the Washington Post reported Tuesday that Pence is no longer planning to leave Washington.

BIG NUMBER:

240,000. Since the start of the pandemic, more than 10,331,900 Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, and at least 240,200 have died.

U.S. Breaks Covid Hospitalization Record, Which Had Stood For Almost 7 Months

The U.S. Just Set A Record (Again) For New Coronavirus Cases

TOPLINE

For the first time in the coronavirus pandemic, more than 60,000 Americans are hospitalized for Covid-19, according to The COVID Tracking Project, which also reported yet another record for new cases Tuesday—130,989, as the pandemic continues to worsen.

KEY FACTS

61,964 Covid-19 hospitalizations were reported in the U.S. Tuesday, breaking a record that had stood since April 15, when 59,940 were in the hospital.

The record for new cases was also broken, topping 130,000 for the first time, but the old record had stood for just three days.

1,347 deaths were reported, which is the most since Aug. 19, according to The COVID Tracking Project, which collects its data from local reporting agencies.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The grim impacts of the third U.S. coronavirus surge are starting to be felt. Hard-hit El Paso, Texas is running out of morgue space, while Tulsa ran out of ICU beds Monday night. In North Dakota, hospitals are at capacity and the state is now taking the extreme step of allowing Covid-positive nurses to keep working in some cases amid a serious staffing shortage.

KEY BACKGROUND

New cases have been rising exponentially since mid-September, with no signs of slowing up. Hospitalizations starting rising around a week later—a rate that has been on the increase. Deaths, which lag behind rises in other metrics, remained relatively steady until around Oct. 18. The death toll has been on a steady rise ever since, with the 7-day rolling average now just shy of 1,000 per day.

TANGENT

President-elect Joe Biden says that fighting coronavirus is a top priority of his incoming administration. He announced a 12-member Covid task force on Monday, with the goal of coming up with a plan to combat the pandemic. That’s in contrast to President Donald Trump, whose administration has not come up with a national plan while the president has continued to make false statements that the U.S. is “rounding the turn” on coronavirus.