Thought of the Day – Response to Change
Category Archives: Change
Thought of the Day: On Which Path to Take
Cartoon – Changing Company DNA
Cartoon – Becoming Change Masters
Thinking Long-Term: Changes in Five Domains will Impact the Future of the U.S. System but Most are Not Prepared
The U.S. health system is big and getting bigger. It is labor intense, capital intense, and highly regulated. Each sector operates semi-independently protected by local, state and federal constraints that give incumbents advantages and dissuade insurgents.
Competition has been intramural:
Growth by horizontal consolidation within sectors has been the status quo for most to meet revenue and influence targets. In tandem, diversification aka vertical consolidation and, for some, globalization in each sector has distanced bigger players from smaller:
- insurers + medical groups + outpatient facilities + drug benefit managers
- hospitals + employed physicians + insurance plans + venture/private equity investing in start-ups
- biotech + pharma + clinical data warehousing,
- retail pharmacies + primary & preventive care + health & wellbeing services + OTC products/devices
- regulated medical devices + OTC products for clinics, hospitals, homes, workplaces and schools.
The landscape is no man’s land for the faint of heart but it’s golden for savvy private investors seeking gain at the expense of the system’s dysfunction and addictions—lack of price transparency, lack of interoperability and lack of definitive value propositions.
What’s ahead?
Everyone in the U.S. health system is aware that funding is becoming more scarce and regulatory scrutiny more intense, but few have invested in planning beyond tomorrow and the day after. Unlike drug and device manufacturers with global markets and long-term development cycles, insurers and providers are handicapped. Insurers respond by adjusting coverage, premiums and co-pays annually. Providers—hospitals, physicians, long-term care providers and public health programs– have fewer options. For most, long-range planning is a luxury, and even when attempted, it’s prone to self-protection and lack of objectivity.
Changes to the future state of U.S. healthcare are the result of shifts in these domains:
They apply to every sector in healthcare and define the context for the future of each organization, sector and industry as a whole:
- The Clinical Domain: How health, diseases and treatments are defined and managed where and by whom; how caregivers and individuals interact; how clinical data is accessed, structured and translated through AI enabled algorithms; how medication management and OTC are integrated; how social determinants are recognized and addressed by caregivers and communities: and so on. The clinical domain is about more than doctors, nurses, facilities and pills.
- The Technology Domain: How information technologies enable customization in diagnostics and treatments; how devices enable self-care; how digital platforms enable access; how systemness facilitates integration of clinical, claims and user experience data; how operating environments shift to automation lower unit costs; how sites of care emerge; how caregivers are trained and much more. Proficiency in the integration of technologies is the distinguishing feature of organizations that survive and those that don’t. It is the glue that facilitates systemness and key to the system’s transformation.
- The Regulatory Domain: How affordability, value, competition, choice, healthcare markets, not-for-profit and effectiveness are defined; how local, state and federal laws, administrative orders by government agencies and executive actions define and change compliance risks; how elected officials assess and mitigate perceived deficiencies in a sector’s public accountability or social responsibility; how courts adjudicate challenges to the status quo and barriers to entry by outsiders/under-served populations; how shareholder ownership in healthcare is regulated to balance profit and the public good; et al. Advocacy on behalf of incumbents geared to current regulatory issues (especially in states) is compulsory table stakes requiring more attention; evaluating potential regulatory environment shifts that might fundamentally change the way a system is structured, roles played, funded and overseen is a luxury few enjoy.
- The Capital Domain: how needed funding for major government programs (Medicare, Medicaid, Children’s, Military, Veterans, HIS, Dual Eligibles et al) is accessed and structured; how private investment in healthcare is encouraged or dissuaded; how monetary policies impact access to debt; how personal and corporate taxes impact capitalization of U.S. healthcare; how value-based programs reduce unnecessary costs and improve system effectiveness; how the employer tax exemption fares long-term as employee benefits shrink; how U.S. system innovations are monetized in global markets; how insurers structure premiums and out of pocket payments: et al. The capital domain thinks forward to the costs of capital it deploys and anticipated returns. But inputs in the models are wildly variable and inconsistent across sectors: hospitals/health systems vs. global private equity healthcare investors vs. national insurers’ capital strategies vary widely and each is prone to over-simplification about the others.
- The Consumer Domain: how individuals, households and populations perceive and use the system; how they assess the value of their healthcare spending; how they vote on healthcare issues; how and where they get information; how they assess alternatives to the status quo; how household circumstances limit access and compromise outcomes; et al. The original sin of the U.S, health system is its presumption that it serves patients who are incapable/unwilling to participate effectively and actively in their care. Might the system’s effectiveness and value proposition be better and spending less if consumerization became core to its future state?
For organizations operating in the U.S. system, staying abreast of trends in these domains is tough. Lag indicators used to monitor trends in each domain are decreasingly predictive of the future. Most Boards stay focused on their own sector/subsector following the lead of their management and thought leadership from their trade associations. Most are unaware of broader trends and activities outside their sector because they’re busy fixing problems that impact their current year performance. Environmental assessments are too narrow and short-sighted. Planning processes are not designed to prompt outside the box thinking or disciplined scenario planning. Too little effort is invested though so much is at risk.
It’s understandable. U.S. healthcare is a victim of its success; maintaining the status quo is easier than forging a new path, however obvious or morally clear. Blaming others and playing the victim card is easier than corrective actions and forward-thinking planning.
In 10 years, the health system will constitute 20% of the entire U.S. economy and play an outsized role in social stability. It’s path to that future and the greater good it pursues needs charting with open minds, facts and creativity. Society deserves no less.
Cartoon – If we are to succeed
AMERICAN HOSPITALS: Healing a Broken System
American Hospitals is the fourth in a series of documentaries produced by the Unfinished Business Foundation, founded by Richard Master, CEO of MCS Industries Inc., who took a deep dive into the economics of the U.S. health-care system after his company was hit year after year with double-digit health insurance rate increases.
Master teamed up with filmmaker Vincent Mondillo to produce Fix It: Healthcare at the Tipping Point; Big Pharma: Market Failure; Big Money Agenda: Democracy on the Brink, and now, American Hospitals.
A provocative look at the cost and inequities of American Hospitals, often more motivated by money and power than in providing for the health needs of individuals and the communities they were founded to serve. From the filmmakers behind the hit documentaries Fix It: Healthcare at the Tipping Point, Big Money Agenda, and Big Pharma.
Learn more and find out where to see the latest film at fixithealthcare.com/events
Still Time For a Healthcare Industry Reinvention (Part 2)
Editor’s Note: This is Part 2 of a multi-part series on healthcare revolution. This article builds on Part 1, which you can read here.
Based on a 23-year career as a solo-practicing rheumatologist, internist and geriatrician, followed by 18 years as president and CEO of a 715-bed, two-hospital healthcare system, I recently shared thoughts about the current stressed healthcare system including profit margin squeeze, patient’s needs and suggested options of subdividing care into acute, urgent, and elective facilities. The bottom-line quote from the Mayo Brothers, “The Patient’s Needs Come First,” is my declaration to use prevention as the way to focus our attention to those we serve.
Recognizing and Addressing the Challenge
Patients’ healthy life expectancy should be the focus of the healthcare industry, communities, employers and governments. People live longer, happier and healthier lives when productivity improves and costs decrease.
The U.S. life expectancy at birth is at the lowest level since 1996. The 0.9-year drop in life expectancy in 2021 and the 1.8-year drop in 2020 were the biggest two-year declines in life expectancy since 1921-1923. The current decline — 77.0 to 76.1 years — demands a change, whether welcome or not. [1]
Our nation’s metrics are embarrassing compared to other countries. Consider just one. “Average life expectancy in Costa Rica has steadily increased from 55 years in 1950 to 81 years today — far outpacing the U.S. Even more notable: the country has achieved this success while spending far less than the U.S. as a share of income which is already lower than ours.” [2] This Central American country is about the size of West Virginia and has a vast and sparsely populated terrain in addition to a few cities. Older adults, even in rural areas in Costa Rica, do well compared to our nation. Opportunities abound to learn from others. [3]
Physicians, Non-Physician Caregivers and Community Responses
Incumbents never welcome disruption. Currently, volume drives the U.S. health payment system. Profitability is proportional to the number of sick-care encounters. The more visits to a physician or hospital parallels greater demand for pharmaceuticals and devices/implants. Higher volume translates into increased insurance premiums the following year, of which the insurance company receives a percentage.
Prevention is not top of mind and redirecting patients to focused factories would be anathema for local hospitals and physicians — both groups are volume dependent.
Offloading outpatient care to lower-cost caregivers — Walmart, CVS, Walgreens, and others — cuts into the work and profit of primary care physicians in independent and health-system-owned group practices. The same with telemedicine. Nurse practitioners and physician assistants, under the supervision of a physician, can bill Medicare at 85% of a physician’s fee with modest restrictions. This positions them to both help and compete with primary care physicians. [4] New entrants — companies and non-physician caregivers — will lower overall costs. That’s a good thing unless you are the traditional medical office or primary care physician being replaced.
Communities have pride in their local healthcare system, especially since it is typically the largest or second largest employer in town. Rethinking where to find urgent or elective care that would require some travel would be a complete mindset change, like the change in shopping after big box stores and online shopping matured. Some communities with abundant resources may support under-utilized healthcare (and retail) facilities but keeping afloat without adequate volume is challenging.
Conditions change and with the importance of health and well-being, patients’ mindsets can evolve to include some travel for urgent and elective care. For its 1.1 million employees, Walmart and other large national employers instituted a Centers of Excellence Program that directs patients with non-acute episodic needs to health institutions that treat them cost-effectively with positive outcomes.
Patients and a companion have 100% of the cost for surgery plus travel expenses for certain spine, cardiac, organ transplants, hip/knee replacements, weight loss surgery and fertility. Walmart also offers a record review for cancer care at a handful of selected healthcare systems across the nation. [5] Since cancer care requires both an accurate diagnosis and usually prolonged treatment, the selected health system develop protocols for a patient that are implemented conveniently for the sufferer.
Rural healthcare is already struggling financially and faces greater threat. Small rural hospitals are failing. Addressing the three levels of medical need with a centralized system might serve patients better than every community trying to be everything to everyone.
Cities with duplicative and redundant services could provide better centralized care more efficiently for a wider geographic area. Changing the “pride in ownership” will require more pain, namely financial pressure, but the reward for patients will be better objective outcomes. Coopetition will facilitate the transformation.
Something has got to give. With increased transparency, patients have never been better informed, and they are already seeking specialized care with better outcomes. Transportation and virtual audio/visual communication is easier than ever before, accelerating change for complex patients.
Healthcare System Evolution
In my opinion, the local hospital of the future will be an ED, OR and ICU with a birthing center attached. A regional medical center will be within driving distance for urgent and elective care. Highly specialized national centers will serve as focus factories for sophisticated medical and surgical care, each serving patients from larger geographic areas, even from across the nation. Cancer surgery, joint replacements, open heart surgery, and other major non-emergency care and surgery at these focus factories will deliver higher quality more efficiently. As noted in Part 1, outcomes are objectively better at institutions focused on a limited number of conditions. [6]
Although this plan might sound exotic, other nations around the world already benefit with specialized, nonredundant hospitals. [7] And global competition is real. The U.S. won’t dominate high-end specialty care like it did in the 1900s. By the end of this century it will be a tripolar world shared between the U.S., China and India. Redistributing resources in America from less efficient healthcare to education, infrastructure, environment, and other worthwhile endeavors will help everyone. [8]
Outpatient care will continue the migration to virtual. Online shopping initially seemed exotic, but now packages arrive daily delivered to homes by a fleet of small vans. And as much as one pines for the old days with a personal intimate relationship with a caregiver, the power of quick access to accurate care will overcome nostalgia. Dr. Marcus Welby will be a distant memory. Consider the profound change from working five days a week in a physical office to the current geographically agnostic 24/7 virtual business community. Formerly successful commercial real estate owners are repurposing their now half-empty buildings.
When will the economics mandate a change? With a slower evolution, the existing systems have a chance to accommodate. A rapid and severe economic downturn is more likely to stimulate a quicker move. Costs matter, particularly as resources become more limited.
Medically self-insured employers like Walmart are already leading the way. Change is happening with younger patients sorting themselves out by going to walk-in clinics in big box chain stores and older folks seeking specialized care from major national systems. As outcomes improve and receive wider recognition, these positive changes will accelerate, creating a “flywheel effect.”
The End Game
Like it or not, sooner or later as a patient or provider we will transform. Understanding the need to change along with better outcomes for patients, who everyone is trying to serve, should improve provider satisfaction.
Subsequently, costs will drop, productivity will increase, and precious resources redirect to preventing illness and improving quality of life. Helping everyone live a longer, happier, and healthier life is an achievable goal. Healthcare systems can and should lead the transformation.
Be Ready for the Reorganized Healthcare Landscape
Running a health system recently has proven to be a very hard job. Mounting losses in the face of higher operating expenses, softer than expected volumes, deferred capex, and strained C-suite succession planning are just a few of the immediate issues with which CEOs and boards must deal.
But frankly, none of those are the biggest strategic issue facing health systems. The biggest
strategic issue is the reorganization of the American healthcare landscape into an ambulatory care
business that emphasizes competing for covered lives at scale in lower cost and convenient settings
of care. This shift in business model has significant ramifications, if you own and operate acute care
hospitals.
Village MD and Optum are two of the organizations driving the business model shift. They are
owned by large publicly traded companies (Walgreens and UnitedHealth Group, respectively). Both
Optum and Village MD have had a string of announced major patient care acquisitions over the past
few years, none of which is in the acute care space.
The future of American healthcare will likely be dominated by large well-organized and well-run
multi-specialty physician groups with a very strong primary care component. These physician
service companies will be payer agnostic and focused on value-based care, though will still be
prepared to operate in markets where fee-for-service dominates. They will deliver highly
coordinated care in lower cost settings than hospital outpatient departments. And these companies
will be armed with tools and analytics that permit them to manage the care for populations of
patients, in order to deliver both better health outcomes and lower costs.
At the same time this is happening, we are experiencing steady growth in Medicare Advantage.
And along with it, a stream of primary care groups who operate purpose-built clinics to take full risk
on Medicare Advantage populations. These companies include ChenMed, Cano Health and Oak
Street, among others. These organizations use strong culture, training, and analytics to better
manage care, significantly reduce utilization, and produce better health outcomes and lower costs.
Public and private equity capital are pouring into the non-acute care sectors, fueling this growth. As
of the start of 2022, nearly three quarters of all physicians in the US were employed by either
corporate entities (such as private equity, insurance companies, and pharmacy companies), or
employed by health systems. And this employment trend has accelerated since the start of the
pandemic. The corporate entities, rather than health systems, are driving this increasing trend.
Corporate purchases of physician practices increased by 86% from 2019 to 2021.
What can health systems do? To succeed in the future, you must be the nexus of care for the
covered lives in your community. But that does not mean the health system must own all the
healthcare assets or employ all of the physicians. The health system can be the platform to convene these assets and services in the community. In some respects, it is similar to an Apple iPhone. They are the platform that convenes the apps. Some of those apps are developed and owned by Apple. But many more apps are developed by people outside of Apple, and the iPhone is simply the platform to provide access.
Creating this platform requires a change in mindset. And it requires capital. There are many opportunities for health systems to partner with outside capital providers, such as private equity, to position for the future – from both a capital and a mindset point of view.
The change in mindset, and the access to flexible capital, is necessary as the future becomes more and more about reorganizing into an ambulatory care business that emphasizes competing for covered lives at scale in lower cost and convenient settings of care.
Cartoon – If We are to Succeed
HENRY KOTULA 