The GOP Still Lacks a Clear Plan for Health Care

he House GOP’s emerging megabill includes significant changes to health care, some of which are long overdue, such as tighter restrictions on the provider taxes which states use to shift Medicaid costs onto the federal budget. But the legislation’s effect on the number of uninsured individuals is likely to get the most attention. Projections showing there will be a sizeable increase are causing internal divisions and creating political risks.

The basic problem for the party remains as it was in 2017 during the failed attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which is that there is no agreement among its leaders on an overall direction to guide the changes they advance. It is probably too late to develop such a plan for this year’s legislative debate, but it remains necessary if GOP officeholders ever want to have more lasting influence on the workings of the overall system.

The Democratic party has long rallied around an organizing principle for the changes it seeks. The ultimate goal is a universal public utility model with everyone covered. There are differences among leading party members over the specific routes to this destination but not on the direction of travel. The party wants to strongly regulate the entire sector, including insurance and the providers of services, and most especially with respect to the prices they charge. The suppliers would be entirely dependent on government-set rates for their revenue. In return, they would get paid just enough to stay open and face less pressure to compete based on efficiency. A single-payer plan is consistent with the party’s goals, but so too would be an extension of Medicare’s fees to the commercial market.

Republicans have nothing similar to rally around. In the megabill, the goal is to slow the growth of public subsidization of insurance enrollment and promote work, with the savings devoted to a lower level of taxation. It is a fiscal exercise and not a plan to reform American health care.

It also leaves the party exposed to criticism. If the federal government pulls back support without bringing down total costs, then someone else has to pay for the care provided to patients, or else some care might have to be curtailed. Predictably, as analyses emerge showing the GOP bill will produce these effects, the political blowback has been building.

The alternative to a public utility model is a system that is disciplined by market incentives instead of regulations but which still embraces population-wide insurance enrollment. The megabill includes important improvements to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) that point in this direction, but they are too marginal to substantially alter incentives in the entire sector.

Republicans should consider what can be done to bring down costs across-the-board so that all purchasers get financial relief. There are several targets available.

  • Stronger Price Competition.
  • The first Trump administration pushed for transparent pricing in health care, which was an important step. However, for the market to work, consumers need to be far more engaged and incentivized to opt for lower-priced options. To promote stronger competition, the federal government should require providers of high-volume services to disclose their prices based on standardized bundles, and then also require insurers to let consumers migrate to lower-priced suppliers and keep the savings.
  • Competitive Bidding.
  • In Medicare and Medicaid, there is too much reliance on regulated rates and not enough on competitive bidding. Both programs should use bidding to establish the rates that the government will pay for services whenever that is a possibility. For instance, Medicare could require competitive bidding for high-volume services such as laboratory testing and imaging, and then use the submitted prices to build a preferred network of providers. Further, competitive bidding should be used to set rates for Medicare Advantage plans and, in time, to establish a level playing field of competition with the traditional program. Some of the savings from these reforms could be used to provide catastrophic insurance protection as a feature of the entire program, and not just in MA.
  • More Enrollment in Job-Based Insurance.
  • Republicans should drop their ambivalence toward insurance enrollment. The balance of the empirical evidence backs the importance of staying in coverage to a person’s health status. Moreover, the public does not want large numbers of uninsured again. To lessen the burden on Medicaid and to promote work, Republicans should look to help low-wage workers secure employer-sponsored insurance (ESI). Redirecting a portion of the tax subsidy for this insurance from high-wage to low-wage workers could induce some individuals out of Medicaid and Affordable Care Act plans and into ESI.

The GOP is right that surging costs for Medicare and Medicaid are a fiscal threat, but if their solutions push more financial risk onto individual consumers and patients, the backlash might hasten changes that Democrats have long sought.

Are Employers Ready to Move from the Back Bench in U.S. Healthcare?

This year, 316 million Americans (92.3% of the population) have health insurance: 61 million are covered by Medicare, 79 million by Medicaid/CHIP and 164 million through employment-based coverage. By 2032, the Congressional Budget Office predicts Medicare coverage will increase 18%, Medicaid and CHIP by 0% and employer-based coverage will increase 3.0% to 169 million. For some in the industry, that justifies seating Medicare on the front row for attention. And, for many, it justifies leaving employers on the back bench since the working age population use hospitals, physicians and prescription meds less than seniors.  

Last week, the Business Group on Health released its 2025 forecast for employer health costs based on responses from 125 primarily large employers surveyed in June: Highlights:

  • “Since 2022, the projected increase in health care trend, before plan design changes, rose from 6% in 2022, 7.2% in 2024 to almost 8% for 2025. Even after plan design changes, actual health care costs continued to grow at a rate exceeding pre-pandemic increases. These increases point toward a more than 50% increase in health care cost since 2017. Moreover, this health care inflation is expected to persist and, in light of the already high burden of medical costs on the plan and employees, employers are preparing to absorb much of the increase as they have done in recent years.”.
  • Per BGH, the estimated total cost of care per employee in 2024 is $18,639, up $1,438 from 2023. The estimated out-of-pocket cost for employees in 2024 is $1,825 (9.8%), compared to $1,831 (10.6%) in 2023.

The prior week, global benefits firm Aon released its 2025 assessment based on data from 950 employers:

  • “The average cost of employer-sponsored health care coverage in the U.S. is expected to increase 9.0% surpassing $16,000 per employee in 2025–higher than the 6.4% increase to health care budgets that employers experienced from 2023 to 2024 after cost savings strategies. “
  • On average, the total health-plan cost for employers increased 5.8% to $14,823 per employee from 2023 to 2024: employer costs increased 6.4% to 80.7% of total while employee premiums increased 3.4% increase–both higher than averages from the prior five years, when employer budgets grew an average of 4.4% per year and employees averaged 1.2% per year.
  • Employee contributions in 2024 were $4,858 for health care coverage, of which $2,867 is paid in the form of premiums from pay checks and $1,991 is paid through plan design features such as deductibles, co-pays and co-insurance.
  • The rate of health care cost increases varies by industry: technology and communications industry have the highest average employer cost increase at 7.4%, while the public sector has the highest average employee cost increase at 6.7%. The health care industry has the lowest average change in employee contributions, with no material change from 2023: +5.8%

And in July, PWC’s Health Research Institute released its forecast based on interviews with 20 health plan actuaries. Highlights:

  • “PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) is projecting an 8% year-on-year medical cost trend in 2025 for the Group market and 7.5% for the Individual market. This near-record trend is driven by inflationary pressure, prescription drug spending and behavioral health utilization. The same inflationary pressure the healthcare industry has felt since 2022 is expected to persist into 2025, as providers look for margin growth and work to recoup rising operating expenses through health plan contracts. The costs of GLP-1 drugs are on a rising trajectory that impacts overall medical costs. Innovation in prescription drugs for chronic conditions and increasing use of behavioral health services are reaching a tipping point that will likely drive further cost inflation.”

Despite different methodologies, all three analyses conclude that employer health costs next year will increase 8-9%– well-above the Congressional Budget Office’ 2025 projected inflation rate (2.2%), GDP growth (2.4% and wage growth (2.0%).  And it’s the largest one-year increase since 2017 coming at a delicate time for employers worried already about interest rates, workforce availability and the political landscape.

For employers, the playbook has been relatively straightforward: control health costs through benefits designs that drive smarter purchases and eliminate unnecessary services. Narrow networks, price transparency, on-site/near-site primary care, restrictive formularies, value-based design, risk-sharing contracts with insurers and more have become staples for employers. 

But this playbook is not working for employers: the intrinsic economics of supply-driven demand and its regulated protections mitigate otherwise effective ways to lower their costs while improving care for their employees and families.

My take:

Last week, I reviewed the healthcare advocacy platforms for the leading trade groups that represent employers in DC and statehouses to see what they’re saying about their take on the healthcare industry and how they’re leaning on employee health benefits. My review included the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Federal of Independent Businesses, Business Roundtable, National Alliance of Purchaser Coalitions, Purchaser Business Group on Health, American Benefits Council, Self-Insurance Institute of America and the National Association of Manufacturers.

What I found was amazing unanimity around 6 themes:

  • Providing health benefits to employees is important to employers. Protecting their tax exemptions, opposing government mandates, and advocating against disruptive regulations that constrain employer-employee relationships are key.
  • Healthcare affordability is an issue to employers and to their employees, All see increasing insurance premiums, benefits design changes, surprise bills, opaque pricing, and employee out-of-pocket cost obligations as problems.
  • All believe their members unwillingly subsidize the system paying 1.6-2.5 times more than what Medicare pays for the same services. They think the majority of profits made by drug companies, hospitals, physicians, device makers and insurers are the direct result of their overpayments and price gauging.
  • All think the system is wasteful, inefficient and self-serving. Profits in healthcare are protected by regulatory protections that disable competition and consumer choices.
  • All think fee-for-service incentives should be replaced by value-based purchasing.
  • And all are worried about the obesity epidemic (123 million Americans) and its costs-especially the high-priced drugs used in its treatment. It’s the near and present danger on every employer’s list of concerns.

This consensus among employers and their advocates is a force to be reckoned. It is not the same voice as health insurers: their complicity in the system’s issues of affordability and accountability is recognized by employers. Nor is it a voice of revolution: transformational changes employers seek are fixes to a private system involving incentives, price transparency, competition, consumerism and more.

Employers have been seated on healthcare’s back bench since the birth of the Medicare and Medicaid programs in 1965. Congress argues about Medicare and Medicaid funding and its use. Hospitals complain about Medicare underpayments while marking up what’s charged employers to make up the difference. Drug companies use a complicated scheme of patents, approvals and distribution schemes to price their products at will presuming employers will go along. Employers watched but from the back row.

As a new administration is seated in the White House next year regardless of the winner, what’s certain is healthcare will get more attention, and alongside the role played by employers. Inequities based on income, age and location in the current employer-sponsored system will be exposed. The epidemic of obesity and un-attended demand for mental health will be addressed early on. Concepts of competition, consumer choice, value and price transparency will be re-defined and refreshed. And employers will be on the front row to make sure they are.

For employers, it’s crunch time: managing through the pandemic presented unusual challenges but the biggest is ahead. Of the 18 benefits accounted as part of total compensation, employee health insurance coverage is one of the 3 most expensive (along with paid leave and Social Security) and is the fastest growing cost for employers.  Little wonder, employers are moving from the back bench to the front row.

Keeping employers in the health benefits business   

https://mailchi.mp/09f9563acfcf/gist-weekly-february-2-2024?e=d1e747d2d8

“What if 10 percent, or even five percent, of the employers in our market decide to stop providing health benefits?” a Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) at a midsized health system in the Southeast recently asked.

“Their health insurance costs have been growing like crazy for 20 years. Some of these companies could easily decide to just give their employees some amount of tax-advantaged dollars and let them do their own thing.” An emerging option for employers is the relatively new individual coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangement (ICHRA), which allows employers to give tax-deductible contributions to employees to use for healthcare, including purchasing health insurance on an exchange. 

According to the CSO, “What happens is this: We’ll go from getting 250 percent of Medicare for beneficiaries in a commercial group plan to getting 125 percent for beneficiaries in a market plan. I don’t know any provider with the margins to withstand that kind of shift without significant pain—certainly not us.” 
 


The conversation shifted to a discussion about treating employers like true customers that pay generously for healthcare services, which involves increasing engagement with them and better understanding their specific problems with their employees’ healthcare. What complaints are they hearing about their employee’s difficulties with things like making timely appointments or finding after-hours care?

Provider organizations can help keep employers in the health insurance market by regularly checking in with them about their healthcare challenges, meaningfully focusing on mitigating their pain points, and exploring new kinds of mutually beneficial partnerships. 

They should also carefully monitor the employer market in their region and create financial assessments of the potential impact of employers shifting employees to health insurance stipend arrangements. 

Are Employers Ready to Engage the Health Industry Head On?

Last week, Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released its Annual Employer Health Benefits Survey which included a surprise:

The average annual single premium and the average annual family premium each increased by 7% over the last year.

In 2022 as post-pandemic recovery was the focus for employers, the average single premium grew by 2% and the average family premium increased by 1%. Health costs and insurance premiums were not top of mind concerns to employers struggling to keep employees paid and door open. But 7% is an eye-opener.

The rest of the findings in the 2023 KFF Report are unremarkable: they reflect employer willingness to maintain benefits at/near pre-pandemic levels and slight inclination toward expanded benefits beyond mental health:

  • “The average annual premium for employer-sponsored health insurance in 2023 is $8,435 for single coverage and $23,968 for family coverage. Comparatively, there was an increase of 5.2% in workers’ wages and inflation of 5.8%2. The average single and family premiums increased faster this year than last year (2% vs. 7% and 1% vs. 7% respectively).
  • Over the last five years, the average premium for family coverage has increased by 22% compared to an 27% increase in workers’ wages and 21% inflation.
  • For single coverage, the average premium for covered workers is higher at small firms than at large firms ($8,722 vs. $8,321). The average premiums for family coverage are comparable for covered workers in small and large firms ($23,621 vs. $24,104) …
  • Most covered workers contribute to the cost of the premium for their coverage. On average, covered workers contribute 17% of the premium for single coverage and 29% of the premium for family coverage, similar to the percentages contributed in 2022…
  • 90% of workers with single coverage have a general annual deductible that must be met before most services are paid for by the plan, similar to the percentage last year (88%).
  • The average deductible amount in 2023 for workers with single coverage and a general annual deductible is $1,735, similar to last year…
  • In 2023, among workers with single coverage, 47% of workers at small firms and 25% of workers at large firms have a general annual deductible of $2,000 or more. Over the last five years, the percentage of covered workers with a general annual deductible of $2,000 or more for single coverage has grown from 26% to 31%.
  • While nearly all large firms (firms with 200 or more workers) offer health benefits to at least some workers, small firms (3-199 workers) are significantly less likely to do so. In 2023, 53% of all firms offered some health benefits, similar to the percentage last year (51%).”

My take:

These findings show that employers are not prone to drastic changes in health benefits for their employees despite recognition it is expensive and unaffordable to small companies and for many of their own employees.  But many large self-insured employers (except those in government, education and healthcare) are poised to make significant changes next year. They recognize themselves as the primary source of profits enjoyed by insurers, hospitals, physicians, drug companies and others.  

They’re developing multi-year at risk direct contracts, value-based purchasing arrangements, primary care gatekeeping, narrow networks, restricted formularies, alternative care models and more to that leverage their clout. They’re going on offense.

The KFF Benefits Survey is a snapshot of where employer benefits are today, but it’s likely not the same next year. It appears employers are ready to engage the health industry head on.

PS Last week, the feud between Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Chair Bernie Sanders and Not-for-Profit Health Systems heated up. On Oct. 10, he released a Majority Staff Report that said NFP hospitals do not deserve their tax exemptions as they spend “paltry amounts” on charity care. “Hospitals have gladly accepted the tax benefits that come with nonprofit status but have failed to provide the required community benefits. Non-profit hospitals spent only an estimated $16 billion on charity care in 2020, or about 57% of the value of their tax breaks in the same year.”

The same day, the American Hospital Association (AHA) released its analysis of hospital Schedule H filings concluding that tax-exempt hospitals provided $130 billion in community benefits in 2020 and called the HELP report “just plain wrong”.

In response to the AHA report, Sanders noted that AHA had not included CEO Compensation for NFPs in its analysis though featured prominently in his Majority Staff Report: “In 2021, the most recent year for which data is available for all of the 16 hospital chains, those companies’ CEOs averaged more than $8 million in compensation and collectively made over $140 million…

The disparities between the paltry amounts these hospitals are spending on charity care and their massive revenues and excessive executive compensation demonstrates that they are failing to live up to their end of the non-profit bargain.”

This tit for tat between the Committee Chairman and AHA is notable for 2 reasons: it draws attention to the Schedule H information goldmine about how not-for-profit hospitals operate since they’re now required to attach their S-10 Medicare cost report worksheets. Quantifying charity care in Exhibit 3B (for which there’s no expectation of payment) and the myriad of claimed community benefits including bad debt in Schedule 3C will likely intensify scrutiny of NFPs even more.  Second, it draws attention to Executive Pay in hospitals: in this regard the Majority Staff Report commentary on CEO pay is misleading: by combining Column B (wages, bonuses) with Columns C (Deferred compensation) and D (non-taxable benefits), the total is significantly higher than one-year’s actual take-home pay for the CEOs. But it makes headlines!

If not-for-profit systems wish to lead transformational change in U.S. healthcare, not-for-profit system boards and their trade associations must be prepared to address the storm clouds gathering above. The skirmish between the Senate HELP Chair and AHA mirrors an increasingly skeptical public who, with Congress, believe the system is being gamed.

Humana to exit employer-sponsored insurance market

https://mailchi.mp/12e6f7d010e1/the-weekly-gist-february-24-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

On Thursday, Louisville, KY-based Humana announced it will wind down its Employer Group Commercial Medical Products business over the next two years. The company said its exit from all fully insured, self-funded, and federal employee medical plans—a book of business that shrunk to under 1M lives in 2022—will allow the company to focus more on its Medicare Advantage (MA) offerings, which covered over 5M lives in 2022. Humana is currently the second largest MA payer behind UnitedHealthcare. 

The Gist: In a move signaled earlier this month, Humana has chosen to double down on its more profitable MA business, rather than continuing to compete with other major payers in the shrinking employer-sponsored commercial market. Humana already offers MA plans in 89 percent of US counties, more than UnitedHealthcare, but its 2022 MA growth was only a third of United’s (250K new lives enrolled, versus 750K). 

This move allows Humana to devote more resources to fielding competitive MA plan offerings and integrating its growing portfolio of physician and postacute care assets.