Corporate Takeover Has Not Been Good for Healthcare

Four decades ago, Paul Starr noted in his landmark history of U.S. healthcare, “The Social Transformation of American Medicine,” that the industry had taken a decisive turn toward corporate ownership. “Medical care in America now appears to be in the early stages of a major transformation in its institutional structure,” he wrote. “Corporations have begun to integrate a hitherto decentralized hospital system, enter a variety of other health care businesses, and consolidate ownership and control in what may eventually become an industry dominated by huge healthcare conglomerates.”

Forty years later, Starr’s prediction has come true. The vast majority of hospitals (other than critical access facilities) are now part of health systems, and some of those belong to giant for-profit or not-for-profit corporations. Nearly 80% of physicians are now employed by hospitals or private companies, including health insurers like United Healthcare. Most community pharmacies have been displaced by enormous chains like CVS, Walgreens and Walmart. Nursing home chains have taken over two-thirds of skilled nursing facilities. A handful of huge firms dominate health insurance, and a dozen drug manufacturers produce and set the prices of the most common prescription medicines.

Private equity (PE) investors focus like a laser beam on generating profits. There can be an amoral quality to PE investing, seeking returns whether or not they create value for customers in the marketplace.

Steward Healthcare, a large hospital chain initially created with PE investment has become, whether fair or not, a poster child for what can go wrong with private investment in healthcare. Steward went bankrupt after aggressively expanding into new markets beyond Massachusetts with funding generated from sales-leaseback arrangements with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

But many of the PE firms that now own over 200 acute care hospitals take a similar approach. According to a recent study of PE-owned hospitals, two years after they were purchased, 61% of them had reduced capital assets, compared to 15.5% of control hospitals. Assets decreased by a mean of 15% for acquired hospitals and increased by 9.2% for controls during that period.

Corporate Goals Vs. Value-Based Care
The consolidation of the industry by large corporate entities has received a fair amount of media attention. What has been less noticed is the incompatibility between corporate goals and value-based care. One reason for this is that many big healthcare systems pretend to be interested in population health management. For example, they may operate accountable care organizations (ACOs) that seek to improve the quality of care and reduce costs through better prevention and care coordination. They may also try to reduce readmissions, which helps them avoid Medicare penalties.

Don’t be fooled. There are exceptions — including the few integrated systems like Kaiser and Geisinger that take financial responsibility for care — but most healthcare systems have no intention of turning their business model upside down by using population health management to decrease admissions and empty their beds. When for-profit chains deliver reports to stock analysts, or not-for-profits seek to sell bonds, the metric they most often use to show their financial health is their occupancy rate, not their success in value-based care.

Meanwhile, the healthcare behemoths are continuing to grow larger. While the Department of Justice has ramped up its antitrust activity under the Biden Administration and has discouraged some mergers, this has had relatively little impact on healthcare consolidation. Academic medical centers are acquiring more community hospitals as referral sources, and some large systems like Risant Health, a nonprofit entity created by Kaiser Permanente, are doing interstate deals that help them escape the oversight of state laws.

Physicians have been largely a football in the matches between giant healthcare systems and equally massive insurers. Many independent practices have been forced to sell out to hospitals because Medicare pays hospital outpatient departments more than independent practices for the same services. (That this remains the case nearly 10 years after Congress passed its first “site-neutral” payment law is a testament to the power of regulatory capture.) While there are some sizable independent groups and physician-led ACOs, it is difficult for doctors to determine their own destinies today. And, because of how their corporate overlords affect the practice of medicine, many employed physicians are unhappy with their working conditions and its impact on patients. We’re even starting to see the beginnings of unionization in some systems.

Saving Primary Care
A variety of reforms have been tried to shore up primary care, the cornerstone of value-based care. For example, some primary-care-driven ACOs with value-based contracts generate significant savings that they have shared with their doctors. But the percentage of all payments made in these kinds of arrangements is still fairly small. The risk-taking portion of the healthcare business will not grow substantially as long as hospitals and specialists continue to make good money doing the same old fee-for-service thing.

Insurers have also taken the lead in some efforts to fortify primary care. United, which employs about 10% of the nation’s physicians, has been training them to practice evidence-based medicine and reduce waste. Elevance Health recently struck a deal with PE firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice to create a new primary care model in Elevance’s Millenium Physician Group and Carelon Health. This “whole-person health” model will emphasize the patient-doctor relationship, along with care coordination, referral management and health coaching within “value-based care” financial arrangements.

This is all to the good. But health insurers don’t make their profits by encouraging primary care doctors to take better care of patients. They use provider networks, prior authorization, high deductibles and other tools to limit access and the cost of services. In Medicare Advantage, carriers like United and Humana have used diagnostic coding to inflate their Medicare payments by an estimated $88 billion just this year. Efforts to infuse value-based care into healthcare delivery have not been a major priority for insurance companies.

Drug Company Profits
Whole books have been written about how the pharmaceutical industry has ripped off the American consumer. Following notorious, out-of-whack price increases over the years for drugs like insulin, Humira and Truvada, in 2022 net prices jumped 6.2% for Darzalex, 6% for Prolia, 7.2% for Xgeva, 6% for Perjeta, and 8.9% for Adcetris, among others. These price hikes, which were unsupported by new clinical evidence of the drugs’ effectiveness, netted from $63 million to $248 million in additional revenue for their manufacturers. Drug companies can get away with it because nothing in U.S. law prevents them from raising prices for patented medications by however much they want to. How they price their drugs can also have a strong impact on health costs as a whole, especially when a lot of people take a particular medication. Current examples include Wegovy, Ozempic and the other high-priced GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which eventually could cost the health system as much as $1 trillion a year — five times as much as could be saved in lower costs for other conditions — if prescribed to all obese Americans.

The kicker is that we spend nearly three times as much per person on prescription medicines as other leading countries do, because their governments bargain with pharmaceutical companies and ours doesn’t. Yet the drug makers complain that any limitations on their U.S. profits will make it impossible for them to develop more lifesaving medicines.

Overall, it’s clear that the corporatization of our healthcare system is not good for our health. In Portugal, for example, health spending per capita is one-fifth that of the U.S., yet life expectancy there is six years longer, on average, than in our country. The difference is largely rooted in the fact that Portugal has a national health service that guarantees access to healthcare, regardless of ability to pay. In other words, health takes precedence over profits in Portugal.

If we really want good healthcare at an affordable cost — the definition of value-based care — we have to move away from our profit-driven, corporatized healthcare model. As long as corporations are allowed to profit from healthcare, they will maximize those profits, regardless of the impact on consumers. It doesn’t matter how much we talk about value-based care or reforms that merely nip at corporate profits. Until Americans demand the same kind of healthcare that every Portuguese has, and insist that our government rein in the corporate owners of healthcare entities, we will get poorer healthcare and die sooner than citizens of other advanced countries.
Outcomes Matter. Customers Count. Value Rules.

Healthcare Spending 2000-2022: Key Trends, Five Important Questions

Last week, Congress avoided a partial federal shutdown by passing a stop-gap spending bill and now faces March 8 and March 22 deadlines for authorizations including key healthcare programs.

This week, lawmakers’ political antenna will be directed at Super Tuesday GOP Presidential Primary results which prognosticators predict sets the stage for the Biden-Trump re-match in November. And President Biden will deliver his 3rd State of the Union Address Thursday in which he is certain to tout the economy’s post-pandemic strength and recovery.

The common denominator of these activities in Congress is their short-term focus: a longer-term view about the direction of the country, its priorities and its funding is not on its radar anytime soon. 

The healthcare system, which is nation’s biggest employer and 17.3% of its GDP, suffers from neglect as a result of chronic near-sightedness by its elected officials. A retrospective about its funding should prompt Congress to prepare otherwise.

U.S. Healthcare Spending 2000-2022

Year-over-year changes in U.S. healthcare spending reflect shifting demand for services and their underlying costs, changes in the healthiness of the population and the regulatory framework in which the U.S. health system operates to receive payments. Fluctuations are apparent year-to-year, but a multiyear retrospective on health spending is necessary to a longer-term view of its future.

The period from 2000 to 2022 (the last year for which U.S. spending data is available) spans two economic downturns (2008–2010 and 2020–2021); four presidencies; shifts in the composition of Congress, the Supreme Court, state legislatures and governors’ offices; and the passage of two major healthcare laws (the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 and the Affordable Care Act of 2010).

During this span of time, there were notable changes in healthcare spending:

  • In 2000, national health expenditures were $1.4 trillion (13.3% of gross domestic product); in 2022, they were $4.5 trillion (17.3% of the GDP)—a 4.1% increase overall, a 321% increase in nominal spending and a 30% increase in the relative percentage of the nation’s GDP devoted to healthcare. No other sector in the economy has increased as much.
  • In the same period, the population increased 17% from 282 million to 333 million, per capita healthcare spending increased 178% from $4,845 to $13,493 due primarily to inflation-impacted higher unit costs for , facilities, technologies and specialty provider costs and increased utilization by consumers due to escalating chronic diseases.
  • There were notable changes where dollars were spent: Hospitals remained relatively unchanged (from $415 billion/30.4% of total spending to $1.355 trillion/31.4%), physician services shrank (from $288.2 billion/21.1% to $884.8/19.6%) and prescription drugs were unchanged (from $122.3 billion/8.95% to $405.9 billion/9.0%).
  • And significant changes in funding Out-of-pocket shrank from 14.2% ($193.6 billion in 2020) to (10.5% ($471 billion) in 2020, private insurance shrank from $441 billion/32.3% to $1.289 trillion/29%, Medicare spending grew from $224.8 billion/16.5% to $944.3billion/21%; Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program spending grew from $203.4 billion/14.9% to $7805.7billion/18%; and Department of Veterans Affairs healthcare spending grew from $19.1 billion/1.4% to $98 billion/2.2%.

Looking ahead (2022-2031), CMS forecasts average National Health Expenditures (NHE) will grow at 5.4% per year outpacing average GDP growth (4.6%) and resulting in an increase in the health spending share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 17.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031.

The agency’s actuaries assume

“The insured share of the population is projected to reach a historic high of 92.3% in 2022… Medicaid enrollment will decline from its 2022 peak of 90.4M to 81.1M by 2025 as states disenroll beneficiaries no longer eligible for coverage. By 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5 percent. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to result in lower out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs for 2024 and beyond as Medicare beneficiaries incur savings associated with several provisions from the legislation including the $2,000 annual out-of-pocket spending cap and lower gross prices resulting from negotiations with manufacturers.”

My take:

The reality is this: no one knows for sure what the U.S. health economy will be in 2025 much less 2035 and beyond. There are too many moving parts, too much invested capital seeking near-term profits, too many compensation packages tied to near-term profits, too many unknowns like the impact of artificial intelligence and court decisions about consolidation and too much political risk for state and federal politicians to change anything.

One trend stands out in the data from 2000-2022: The healthcare economy is increasingly dependent on indirect funding by taxpayers and less dependent on direct payments by users. 

In the last 22 years, local, state and federal government programs like Medicare, Medicaid and others have become the major sources of funding to the system while direct payments by consumers and employers, vis-à-vis premium out-of-pocket costs, increased nominally but not at the same rate as government programs. And total spending has increased more than the overall economy (GDP), household wages and  costs of living almost every year.

Thus, given the trends, five questions must be addressed in the context of the system’s long-term solvency and effectiveness looking to 2031 and beyond:

  • Should its total spending and public funding be capped?
  • Should the allocation of funds be better adapted to innovations in technology and clinical evidence?
  • Should the financing and delivery of health services be integrated to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the system?
  • Should its structure be a dual public-private system akin to public-private designations in education?
  • Should consumers play a more direct role in its oversight and funding?

Answers will not be forthcoming in Campaign 2024 despite the growing significance of healthcare in the minds of voters. But they require attention now despite political neglect.

PS: The month of February might be remembered as the month two stalwarts in the industry faced troubles:

United HealthGroup, the biggest health insurer, saw fallout from a cyberattack against its recently acquired (2/22) insurance transaction processor by ALPHV/Blackcat, creating havoc for the 6000 hospitals, 1 million physicians, and 39,000 pharmacies seeking payments and/or authorizations. Then, news circulated about the DOJ’s investigation about its anti-competitive behavior with respect to the 90,000 physicians it employs. Its stock price ended the week at 489.53, down from 507.14 February 1.

And HCA, the biggest hospital operator, faced continued fallout from lawsuits for its handling of Mission Health (Asheville) where last Tuesday, a North Carolina federal court refused to dismiss a lawsuit accusing it of scheming to restrict competition and artificially drive-up costs for health plans. closed at 311.59 last week, down from 314.66 February 1.

November 2022 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

https://altarum.org/publications/november-2022-health-sector-economic-indicators-briefs

Economic Indicators | November 18, 2022

Altarum’s monthly Health Sector Economic Indicators (HSEI) briefs analyze the most recent data available on health sector spending, prices, employment, and utilization. Support for this work is provided by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Below are highlights from the November 2022 briefs.

Health spending growth continues to lag GDP growth

  • National health spending in September 2022 grew by 4.4%, year over year.
  • Health spending in September 2022 is estimated to account for 17.4% of GDP, essentially identical to the August 2022 value, which was the lowest share since June 2015.
  • Nominal GDP in September 2022 was 8.9% higher than in September 2021 as GDP growth continues to outpace health spending growth.
  • The health spending share of GDP has declined from a recent high of 18.5% of GDP in December 2021, largely because of high economy-wide inflation.

Health care price growth remains moderate amid slowing economywide inflation

  • The Health Care Price Index (HCPI) increased by 2.9% year over year in October, up slightly from 2.8% a month earlier. 
  • Economywide price growth slowed this month, as overall CPI inflation fell to 7.7% and PPI price growth fell to 8.0%. Services CPI growth (excluding health care) held steady at 7.0% year over year, while commodities inflation fell for a fourth straight month to 8.6%.
  • Among the major health care categories, price growth for dental care (5.4%), nursing home care (4.2%), and hospital services (3.5%) were above average, while physician services (0.3%) and prescription drug (2.2%) price growth were the slowest growing categories.
  • Growth in our implicit measure of utilization for September was the slowest it has been in 2022, down to 1.8% year-over-year growth from 2.2% a month prior in August.

Health care job growth remains strong while health care wage growth moderates

  • Health care job growth remained strong in October, with 52,600 jobs added. Health care has averaged 47,000 new jobs per month in 2022.
  • Most of the growth in health care jobs was in ambulatory care, which added 30,700 jobs in October. Hospitals added 10,800 jobs and nursing and residential care added 11,100 jobs.
  • The economy added 261,000 jobs in October, similar to August and September gains. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%.
  • Health care wage growth appears to be moderating. After peaking at 7.4% growth year over year in July, health care wages grew by 5.6% in September, nearer to economy-wide wage growth of 5.0%.
  • Wage growth fell across all three major health care settings: residential care wages grew at 7.7% compared to a peak of 11% in March 2022, hospital wages grew by 5.8% compared to a peak of 8.5% in June, and ambulatory care wages grew by 4.6% compared to a peak of 5.8% in July.

Inflation slowing as Wall Street looks bullish on healthcare sector

Wall Street’s roil has stabilized somewhat in recent days, with the S&P 500 brushing up against its 200-day moving average and rising more than 10 percent since its October lows, as of publication time.

The index’s 50-day moving average is trending up, according to financial data firm Refinitiv. But it still must climb another 7.4 percent to form a “golden cross,” which is when a stock or index’s short-term moving average rises above one of its longer-term moving averages. The S&P 500’s 20-day and 100-day moving averages are closer to the milestone, only needing increases of 5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has already formed a small golden cross: its 20-day moving average is 1.2 percent higher than its 200-day moving average.

Investors Optimistic about Healthcare Sector

 Investors are most optimistic about the Healthcare sector, which is trading close to its 3-year average “price to earnings-per-share” ratio of 48.1x, according to Simply Wall Street.

 Analysts are expecting an annual earnings growth of 13.4 percent, higher than the sector’s past year earnings growth of 5 percent.

 Merck and Johnson & Johnson were among last week’s top gainers driving the market.

Inflation Appears to be Slowing

 The recent lower-than-expected inflation figures could indicate it is slowing.

 The Fed may continue raising rates, considering the strength in recent labor market and retail sales data.