Just a month ago, even as signs of a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. were blossoming in the lower Midwest, the memory of a long, miserable winter kept us warm. Even places with burgeoning case rates were far below their catastrophic peaks over the holidays, when a combination of cold weather and defiant travelers contributed to a third wave in infections and deaths that drowned out the previous two spikes in April and July of 2020.
This is regrettably no longer the case. In four states—Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida—the current number of daily new COVID-19 infections, averaged across seven days, has surpassed that winter peak, even with a substantial percentage of the population having received a complete dosage of the COVID-19 vaccine (though not nearly as many as public officials would prefer).
Hawaii is something of an anomaly, as its winter peak was not nearly as high as in colder, more accessible regions. But several other states threaten to join this quartet in the near future. Oregon’s daily rate of new infections is at 36.5 per 100,000 residents, or 99% of the peak value on Dec. 3, 2020. Nationwide, the rate is 37.7, just under 50% of the winter peak of 76.5.
What is perhaps most sobering about this surge is that COVID-19-related deaths, which typically lag behind case surges by about two weeks, are starting to rise again. No state has yet surpassed the winter peak in deaths, but at 65%, Louisiana very well may. That figure is still 15% nationwide, well below the Jan. 13, 2021 peak of 1.04 fatalities per 100,000 people. It is currently at 0.16.
When it comes to the pandemic, no one wants to sound like Chicken Little. The sky might not be falling. But neither is the national case rate, or the number of people dying.
With US COVID case counts hitting levels not seen since February, hospitalizations climbing rapidly in many states—topping the number seen nationally during last summer’s surge—and mortality figures beginning to edge worrisomely upward, it’s increasingly clear that talk of a “hot vax summer” was premature at best.
While this week the nation crested President Biden’s July 4th goal of 70 percent of Americans getting at least one dose of the vaccine, attention has now turned in earnest to the need to dramatically accelerate vaccinations the face of the highly contagious Delta variant.
Of particular concern: a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggesting that vaccinated people who become infected with the variant may be able to spread the disease at a greater rate than previously thought.
Although it’s clear that we’re largely experiencing a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” at this point, it wasn’t reassuring to learn that the CDC has been citing pre-Delta data (from January to July) on hospitalizations to bolster its reassurances to vaccinated Americans about the low numbers of “breakthrough” cases in hospitals, nor to hear (as we have, anecdotally) from hospital leaders that vaccinated patients now account for 15 percent of COVID admissions.
Attention has rapidly turned to the need for booster shots, with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reported to be readying a plan for early September, focused on the over-65 population and those whose immune systems are compromised. Already, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital has begun supplemental mRNA boosters for those who received the one-dose Johnson & Johnson shot earlier this year.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to reassure those still harboring concerns about getting an “experimental” vaccine, the FDA is fast-tracking its full approval process for Pfizer’s vaccine, which can’t come soon enough.
The ticking clock: students of all ages, vaccinated or otherwise, return to school in less than a month. Will we be ready?
Moderna said Thursday that it expects a third dose of its coronavirus vaccine will be necessary before the winter, citing that protection from the shot will fade over time, The Hill reports.
The biotech firm confirmed that its vaccine maintained 93% efficacy six months after the second dose but said that a booster shot will likely still be needed before the winter.
“We are pleased that our COVID-19 vaccine is showing durable efficacy of 93% through six months but recognize that the Delta variant is a significant new threat, so we must remain vigilant,” Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a statement.
“Given this intersection, we believe dose 3 booster will likely be necessary prior to the winter season,” the company said.
The 93% efficacy after six months announced by Moderna is a promising sign and compares to the 84% efficacy reported by the Pfizer vaccine.
While there is strong data for six months, the company warned that the rise of the delta variant will cause an “increase of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals.”
Moderna: “you might need a booster sh—“ Me: signed in online, waiting outside the Rite Aid at 7am with my sleeve rolled up
More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The data highlights what leading health experts across the country have highlighted for months: Covid-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death from Covid-19 and are the country’s best shot at slowing the pandemic down and avoiding further suffering.The CDC reported 6,587 Covid-19 breakthrough cases as of July 26, including 6,239 hospitalizations and 1,263 deaths. At that time, more than 163 million people in the United States were fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
Divide those severe breakthrough cases by the total fully vaccinated population for the result: less than 0.004% of fully vaccinated people had a breakthrough case that led to hospitalization and less than 0.001% of fully vaccinated people died from a breakthrough Covid-19 case.
Most of the breakthrough cases — about 74% — occurred among adults 65 or older.
Since May, the CDC has focused on investigating only hospitalized or fatal Covid-19 cases among people who have been fully vaccinated. The agency says the data relies on “passive and voluntary reporting” and is a “snapshot” to “help identify patterns and look for signals among vaccine breakthrough cases.”
“To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections,” according to the CDC.
The agency shared a study this week that showed the Delta variant produced similar amounts of virus in vaccinated and unvaccinated people if they get infected. Experts continue to say that vaccination makes it less likely you’ll catch Covid-19 in the first place. But for those who do, the findings suggest they could have a similar tendency to spread it as unvaccinated people. That study also convinced CDC leaders to update the agency’s mask guidance on Tuesday, recommending that fully vaccinated people also wear masks indoors when in areas with “substantial” and “high” Covid-19 transmission to prevent further spread of the Delta variant. Guidance for unvaccinated people remains to continue masking until they are fully vaccinated. Beyond severe cases, an analysis of official state data from the Kaiser Family Foundation showed that breakthrough cases of any kind are also extremely rare.vAbout half of states report data on Covid-19 breakthrough cases, and in each of those states, less than 1% of fully vaccinated people had a breakthrough infection, ranging from 0.01% in Connecticut to 0.9% in Oklahoma.
The KFF analysis also found that more than 90% of cases — and more than 95% of hospitalizations and deaths — have been among unvaccinated people. In most states, more than 98% of cases were among the unvaccinated.
Pace of vaccinations is going up
But experts say those vaccinated, while they may be able to transmit the virus, remain very well protected against getting seriously ill. Amid the latest surge of Covid-19 cases nationwide fueled by the Delta variant, local leaders across the US are reporting that the majority of new infections and hospitalizations are among unvaccinated people. The Delta variant is now so contagious, one former health official recently warned that people who are not protected — either through vaccination or previous infection — will likely get it. Amid concerns over the rising cases and the dangerous strain, the country has seen a steady rise in the pace of vaccinations in the past three weeks — and an even sharper increase in states that had been lagging the most, according to a CNN analysis of CDC data.
The seven-day average of new doses administered in the US is now 652,084, up 26% from three weeks ago. The difference is even more striking in several southern states: Alabama’s seven-day average of new doses administered is more than double what it was three weeks ago. The state has the lowest rate of its total population fully vaccinated in the US, at roughly 34%. Arkansas, with just 36% of its population fully vaccinated, has also seen its average daily rate of doses administered double in the last three weeks. Louisiana, which had by far the most new Covid-19 cases per capita last week and has only fully vaccinated 37% of its population, saw daily vaccination rates rise 111% compared to three weeks ago.
HENRY KOTULA 