“The Inevitable Math behind Entitlement Reform”

“The Inevitable Math behind Entitlement Reform”

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That’s the title of a new NEJM Perspective by Michael Chernew and me. After crunching the numbers, our argument is that for long term cost control we will probably need to address growth in per capita health care utilization. The easy “solutions” won’t be enough.

Much of the projected increase in inflation-adjusted spending on health care entitlements, particularly for Medicare, stems from assumed increases in utilization (e.g., 2.75 percentage points of the 5.33% annual projected growth for Medicare spending). Strategies for holding utilization growth below projections (and more in line with very recent historical growth) will thus be central to the success of any attempt at cost containment.

[One approach] is to dissuade patients from seeking care by charging them more at the point of service. About 85% of Medicare beneficiaries have supplemental plans (e.g., Medigap) that reduce their out-of-pocket costs. Policies that limit the generosity of such plans could reduce Medicare spending considerably. However, such strategies would increase beneficiaries’ financial risks, reduce access to care, and probably exacerbate health disparities.

A second strategy is to help beneficiaries improve their health by enhancing long-term care management and preventive services with the goal of avoiding more expensive services. Evidence suggests that although this type of approach is probably beneficial to patients and may be cost-effective, it is generally not cost saving.

The piece continues with some more promising approaches, in our view. Click to read it in full (unfortunately pay-walled though).

 

Hidden From View: The Astonishingly High Administrative Costs of U.S. Health Care

Hidden From View: The Astonishingly High Administrative Costs of U.S. Health Care

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It takes only a glance at a hospital bill or at the myriad choices you may have for health care coverage to get a sense of the bewildering complexity of health care financing in the United States. That complexity doesn’t just exact a cognitive cost. It also comes with administrative costs that are largely hidden from view but that we all pay.

Because they’re not directly related to patient care, we rarely think about administrative costs. They’re high.

A widely cited study published in The New England Journal of Medicine used data from 1999 to estimate that about 30 percent of American health care expenditures were the result of administration, about twice what it is in Canada. If the figures hold today, they mean that out of the average of about $19,000 that U.S. workers and their employers pay for family coverage each year, $5,700 goes toward administrative costs.

Such costs aren’t all bad. Some are tied up in things we may want, such as creating a quality improvement program. Others are for things we may dislike — for example, figuring out which of our claims to accept or reject or sending us bills. Others are just necessary, like processing payments; hiring and managing doctors and other employees; or maintaining information systems.

That New England Journal of Medicine study is still the only one on administrative costs that encompasses the entire health system. Many other more recent studies examine important portions of it, however. The story remains the same: Like the overall cost of the U.S. health system, its administrative cost alone is No. 1 in the world.

Using data from 2010 and 2011, one study, published in Health Affairs, compared hospital administrative costs in the United States with those in seven other places: Canada, England, Scotland, Wales, France, Germany and the Netherlands.

At just over 25 percent of total spending on hospital care (or 1.4 percent of total United States economic output), American hospital administrative costs exceed those of all the other places. The Netherlands was second in hospital administrative costs: almost 20 percent of hospital spending and 0.8 percent of that country’s G.D.P.

At the low end were Canada and Scotland, which both spend about 12 percent of hospital expenditures on administration, or about half a percent of G.D.P.

Hospitals are not the only source of high administrative spending in the United States. Physician practices also devote a large proportion of revenue to administration. By one estimate, for every 10 physicians providing care, almost seven additional people are engaged in billing-related activities.

It is no surprise then that a majority of American doctors say that generating bills and collecting payments is a major problem. Canadian practices spend only 27 percent of what U.S. ones do on dealing with payers like Medicare or private insurers.

Another study in Health Affairs surveyed physicians and physician practice administrators about billing tasks. It found that doctors spend about three hours per week dealing with billing-related matters. For each doctor, a further 19 hours per week are spent by medical support workers. And 36 hours per week of administrators’ time is consumed in this way. Added together, this time costs an additional $68,000 per year per physician (in 2006). Because these are administrative costs, that’s above and beyond the cost associated with direct provision of medical care.

In JAMA, scholars from Harvard and Duke examined the billing-related costs in an academic medical center. Their study essentially followed bills through the system to see how much time different types of medical workers spent in generating and processing them.

At the low end, such activities accounted for only 3 percent of revenue for surgical procedures, perhaps because surgery is itself so expensive. At the high end, 25 percent of emergency department visit revenue went toward billing costs. Primary care visits were in the middle, with billing functions accounting for 15 percent of revenue, or about $100,000 per year per primary care provider.

“The extraordinary costs we see are not because of administrative slack or because health care leaders don’t try to economize,” said Kevin Schulman, a co-author of the study and a professor of medicine at Duke. “The high administrative costs are functions of the system’s complexity.”

Costs related to billing appear to be growing. A literature review by Elsa Pearson, a policy analyst with the Boston University School of Public Health, found that in 2009 they accounted for about 14 percent of total health expenditures. By 2012, the figure was closer to 17 percent.

One obvious source of complexity of the American health system is its multiplicity of payers. A typical hospital has to contend not just with several public health programs, like Medicare and Medicaid, but also with many private insurers, each with its own set of procedures and forms (whether electronic or paper) for billing and collecting payment. By one estimate, 80 percent of the billing-related costs in the United States are because of contending with this added complexity.

“One can have choice without costly complexity,” said Barak Richman, a co-author of the JAMA study and a professor of law at Duke. “Switzerland and Germany, for example, have lower administrative costs than the U.S. but exhibit a robust choice of health insurers.”

An additional source of costs for health care providers is chasing patients for their portion of bills, the part not covered by insurance. With deductibles and co-payments on the rise, more patients are facing cost sharing that they may not be able to pay, possibly leading to rising costs for providers, or the collection agencies they work with, in trying to get them to do so.

Using data from Athenahealth, the Harvard health economist Michael Chernew computed the proportion of doctors’ bills that were paid by patients. For relatively small bills, those under $75, over 90 percent were paid within a year. For larger ones, over $200, that rate fell to 67 percent.

“It’s a mistake to think that billing issues only reflect complex interactions between providers and insurers,” Mr. Chernew said. “As patients are required to pay more money out of pocket, providers devote more resources to collecting it.”

A distinguishing feature of the American health system is that it offers a lot of choice, including among health plans. Because insurers and public programs have not coordinated on a set of standards for pricing, billing and collection — whatever the benefits of choice — one of the consequences is high administrative burden. And that’s another reason for high American health care prices.

 

 

 

Healthcare Triage News: Juice – It’s Sugary, It’s Caloric, and It’s Not Great for You

Healthcare Triage News: Juice – It’s Sugary, It’s Caloric, and It’s Not Great for You

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How Would State-Based Individual Mandates Affect Health Insurance Coverage and Premium Costs?

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2018/jul/state-based-individual-mandate?omnicid=EALERT%25%25jobid%25%25&mid=%25%25emailaddr%25%25

How Would State-Based Individual Mandates Affect Health Insurance Coverage and Premium Costs?

 

ABSTRACT

  • Issue: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 eliminated the financial penalty of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate. States could reinstate a similar penalty to encourage health insurance enrollment, ensuring broad sharing of health care costs across healthy and sick populations to stabilize the marketplaces.
  • Goal: To provide state-by-state estimates of the impact on insurance coverage, premiums, and mandate penalty revenues if the state were to adopt an individual mandate.
  • Methods: Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) is used to estimate the coverage and cost impacts of state-specific individual mandates. We assume each state adopts an individual mandate similar to the ACA’s.
  • Findings and Conclusion: If all states implemented individual mandates, the number of uninsured would be lower by 3.9 million in 2019 and 7.5 million in 2022. On average, marketplace premiums would be 11.8 percent lower in 2019. State mandate penalty revenues would amount to $7.4 billion and demand for uncompensated care would be $11.4 billion lower. The impact on coverage and on premiums varies in significant ways across states. For example, in 2019, the number of people uninsured would be 19 percent lower in Colorado and 10 percent lower in California if they implemented their own mandates. With mandates in place, average premiums would be 4 percent lower in Alaska and 15 percent lower in Washington.

Background

One of the Affordable Care Act’s central aims was to reform insurance markets by sharing health care risks and costs more broadly across the healthy and sicker populations. Strategies to accomplish this goal include modified community rating, guaranteed issue, and benefit standards, with the greatest changes made to nongroup insurance markets. Spreading risks tends to decrease costs for people with medical needs and increase them for healthy people. As a consequence, financial incentives to become and remain insured regardless of health status are necessary to ensure the risk pool is large and stable. The ACA established the individual responsibility requirement — also referred to as the individual mandate — to require most people to enroll in minimum essential health care coverage or pay a tax penalty. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 sets the ACA’s penalties for individuals who remain uninsured to $0, beginning in 2019.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that eliminating the individual mandate penalties would lead to an additional 3 million uninsured people in 2019.1 It also estimated that premiums in the nongroup insurance market will increase by 15 percent between 2018 and 2019. Because of the elimination of mandate penalties, fewer healthy people are estimated to enroll in nongroup insurance; thus, the average nongroup insurance enrollee will be more likely to have higher health care expenses. As a result, premiums will be higher. Other pending changes, such as expansion of short-term, limited-duration plans, are expected to worsen the nongroup risk pool and increase premiums as well. The changes, taken together, may lead to some insurers ending or limiting their participation in ACA-compliant nongroup insurance markets.2 Acting on these concerns, some states have considered or passed legislation to implement state-specific individual mandates.3 New Jersey enacted its individual mandate on May 30, 2018;4 Massachusetts did so in 2006, well before the passage of the ACA.

This analysis provides estimates of the effects of state-specific individual mandates on insurance coverage, nongroup insurance premiums, federal and state government spending (including penalty revenue to states), and demand for uncompensated care. Findings are provided nationally as if every state adopted its own individual mandate and for 48 states and the District of Columbia (but excluding Massachusetts and New Jersey because they have their own mandates under current law), assuming each state adopts a penalty structure similar to that of the ACA. We do not anticipate every state taking this approach, but present findings this way for ease of exposition and as a reference point for understanding the effects of the mandate. (A full description of our methods is available below.)

Key Findings

Our central estimates assume that state mandates are implemented in each state as soon as the federal penalties are eliminated in 2019. The effect of a mandate grows over time as health care costs grow relative to incomes; we show some of our results in 2022 to illustrate this. State mandates would have two central effects. First, more people would retain insurance coverage to avoid the penalty. Second, premiums in the nongroup market would be lower because the insurance pool will not lose healthy people that would otherwise drop their coverage without a mandate. As a result, even more people will enroll because of the lower premiums.

 

 

HHS proposes allowing some drug importation, but impact would be limited

HHS proposes allowing some drug importation, but impact would be limited

Money pile and medicine pills representing medical expenses

Nevertheless, the proposed policy could take Martin Shkreli-like practices “out of the ballgame,” expert says.

Regulators could allow importation of certain drugs in an effort to keep prices down, under a proposal from the Department of Health and Human Services.

On Thursday, HHS Secretary Alex Azar requested that Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb create a working group to find how to safely import drugs from abroad in cases when their US-made marketed equivalents undergo dramatic price increases.

However, experts said the effect of such a policy on prices – if it passes – will be limited.

Azar pointed to the now infamous example of the toxoplasmosis drug Daraprim, whose price manufacturer Turing Pharmaceuticals increased from $13.50 per pill to $750 in 2015, drawing nationwide scorn for Turing and its CEO, Martin Shkreli. Shkreli was sentenced to seven years in prison in April following his August 2017 conviction on charges of securities fraud and conspiracy. Turing, which has since changed its name to Vyera Pharmaceuticals, is currently losing money, STAT reported, and shareholders will vote Friday on a proposal to change the name again, to Phoenixus.

Several political leaders have proposed allowing importation of drugs. In May, Republican Vermont Gov. Phil Scott signed a bill that would allow importation of drugs from Canada, though HHS must still certify the law. Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders also introduced a bill in the Senate, S. 469, The Affordable and Safe Prescription Drug Importation Act, that would allow the same, with cosponsorship from several Senate Democrats. The bill would wholesalers, pharmacies and individuals to import a range of medications.

However, the HHS proposal is more narrow, focusing specifically on drugs that have seen significant price increases. Gerard Anderson, professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University, and several colleagues made a similar proposal in a paper published in JAMA in February 2016. Under their proposal, GlaxoSmithKline – the original manufacturer of Daraprim – would be able to import the drug from the United Kingdom, where it sells for less than $1 per tablet. The paper compared the proposal to FDA allowances for importation during shortages of critical medications.

Still, Anderson said in a phone interview that the HHS proposal will not likely have a broader spillover effect on drug prices, but will only affect the specific drugs that are included. “For a very narrow subset of medications, it could take the Martin Shkrelis out of the ballgame because these drugs are very inexpensive in other countries,” he said.

In addition to Turing, other companies that have become notorious for raising drug prices include Shkreli’s prior company, Retrophin, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. Questcor Pharmaceuticals raised the price of Acthar Gel from $1,650 per vial to $23,269 in 2007, and the price has risen to $38,892 since Questcor’s 2014 acquisition by Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals. More recently, larger drug companies have also taken heat for smaller price increases. Pfizer backed down from a plan to raise the prices of about 100 of its medications after criticism from the Trump administration, while Novartis and Merck & Co. have pledged to limit price increases as well.

The government stipulating what constitutes a “dramatic price increase” could create a de facto price ceiling that drugmakers would stay under when changing their prices, said Lev Gerlovin, vice president at Boston-based consultancy Charles River Associates, in a phone interview. It’s hard to assess whether that would have a material effect on the industry, given that the ceiling may be greater than what most manufacturers already tend to do as a matter of course. However, while cautioning that he is not a Washington observer, Gerlovin said likely industry pushback citing patient safety concerns makes the proposal appear unlikely to pass.

 

 

Can A Community Hospital Stick To Its Mission When It Goes For-Profit?

http://radio.wpsu.org/post/can-community-hospital-stick-its-mission-when-it-goes-profit

Proponents of hospital mergers say the change can help struggling nonprofit hospitals "thrive," with an infusion of cash to invest in updated technology and top clinical staff. But research shows the price of care, especially for low-income patients, usually rises when a hospital joins a for-profit corporation.

Mission Health, the largest hospital system in western North Carolina, provided $100 million in free charity care last year. This year, it has partnered with 17 civic organizations to deliver care for substance abuse by people who are low-income.

Based in bucolic Asheville, the six-hospital system also screens residents for food insecurity; provides free dental care to children in rural areas via the “ToothBus” mobile clinic; helps the homeless find permanent housing and encourages its 12,000 employees to volunteer at schools, churches and nonprofit groups.

Asheville residents say the hospital is an essential resource.

“Mission Health helped saved my life,” says Susan ReMine, a 68-year-old Asheville resident for 30 years who now lives in nearby Fletcher, N.C. She was in Mission Health’s main hospital in Asheville for three weeks last fall with kidney failure. And, from 2006 to 2008, a Mission Health-supported program called Project Access provided ReMine with free care after she lost her job because of illness.

After 130 years as a nonprofit with deep roots in the community, Mission Health announced in March that it was seeking to be bought by HCA Healthcare, the nation’s largest for-profit hospital chain. HCA owns 178 hospitals in 20 states and the United Kingdom.

The pending sale reflects a controversial national trend in the U.S. as hospitals consolidate at an accelerating pace and the cost of health care continues to rise.

“We understand the business reasons [for the deal], but our overwhelming concern is the price of health care,” says Ron Freeman, chief financial officer at Ingles Markets, a supermarket chain headquartered in Asheville with 200 stores in six states.

“Will HCA after a few years start to press the hospital to make more profit by raising prices? We don’t know,” Freeman says.

And the local newspaper, the Citizen Timeseditorialized in March: “How does it help to join a corporation where nearly $3 billion that could have gone to health care instead was recorded as profit? … We would feel better were Western North Carolina’s leading health-care provider to remain master of its own fate.”

Across the U.S., the acquisition of nonprofit hospitals by corporations is raising concern among some advocates for patients and communities.

“The main motivation of for-profit companies is to grow so they can cut costs, get paid more and maximize profits,” says Suzanne Delbanco, executive director of the Catalyst for Payment Reform, an employer-led health care think tank and advocacy group. “They are not as focused on improving access to care or the community’s overall health.”

Merger mania across the U.S.

From 2013 to 2017, nearly 1 in 5 of the nation’s 5,500-plus hospitals were acquired or merged with another hospital, according to Irving Levin Associates, a health care analytics firm in Norwalk, Conn. Industry analysts say for-profit hospital companies are poised to grow more rapidly as they buy up both for-profits and nonprofits — potentially altering the character and role of public health-oriented nonprofits.

Nonprofit hospitals are exempt from state and local taxes. In return, they must provide community services and care to poor and uninsured patients — a commitment that is honored to varying degrees nationwide.

Of the nation’s 4,840 general hospitals that aren’t run by the federal government, 2,849 are nonprofit, 1,035 are for-profit and 956 are owned by state or local governments, according to the American Hospital Association.

In 2017, 29 for-profit companies bought 18 for-profit hospitals and 11 not-for-profits, according to an analysis for Kaiser Health News by Irving Levin Associates.

Sales can go the other way, too: 53 nonprofit hospital companies bought 18 for-profits as well as 35 nonprofits in 2017.

A recent report by Moody’s Investors Service predicted stable growth for for-profit hospital companies, saying they are well-positioned to demand higher rates from insurers and have less exposure to the lower rates paid by government insurance programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. In contrast, a second Moody’s report downgraded — from stable to negative — its 2018 forecast for the not-for-profit hospital sector.

‘We wanted to thrive, and not just survive’

Ron Paulus, Mission Health’s president and CEO, says he and the hospital’s 19-member board concluded last year that the future of Mission Health was iffy at best without a merger.

HCA declined to make anyone available for an interview but provided this written statement: “We are excited about the prospect of a transaction that would allow us to support the caliber of care they [Mission Health hospitals] have been providing.”

Driving Mission Health’s decision, Paulus says, were strained finances and the board’s strong feeling that the hospital needed to invest in new technology, modern data management tools and top clinical talent.

“We wanted to thrive and not just survive,” he says. “I had a healthy dose of skepticism about HCA at first. But I think we made the right decision.”

During the past four years, Paulus says, the company has had to cut costs — from between $50 million and $80 million a year — to preserve an “acceptable operating margin.” The forecast for 2019 and 2020, he says, saw the gap between revenue and expenses rising to $150 million a year.

Miriam Schwarz, executive director of the Western Carolina Medical Society, says many physicians in the area were surprised by the move and “are trying to grapple with the shift.”

“There’s concern about the community benefits, but also job loss,” Schwarz says. Still, she adds, the doctors in her region “do recognize that the hospital must become more financially secure.”

Weighed against community concerns is the prospect of a large nonprofit foundation created by the deal. Depending on the final price, the foundation could have close to $2 billion in assets.

Creation of such foundations is common when for-profit companies buy nonprofit hospitals or insurance companies. Paulus says the foundation created from Mission Health could generate $50 million or more a year to — among other initiatives — “test new care models such as home-based care … and address the causes of poor health in the community in the first place.”

In addition, HCA will have to pay upward of $10 million in state and local taxes.

Mixed results

Industry analysts say the hospital merger and consolidation trend nationwide is inevitable given the powerful forces afoot in health care.

That includes pressure to lower prices and costs and improve quality, safety and efficiency; to modernize information technology systems and equipment; and to do more to improve overall health.

But academics and consumer advocates say hospital consolidation yields mixed results. While mergers — especially purchases by for-profit companies — provide much-needed capital and financial stability, competition is stifled, and that’s often led to higher prices.

Martin Gaynor, a professor of economics and health policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and colleagues examined 366 hospital mergers from 2007 to 2011 and found that prices were, on average, 12 percent higher in areas where one hospital dominated the market versus areas with at least four rivals. Another recent study found that 90 percent of U.S. cities today have a “highly concentrated” hospital market. Asheville is one, and Mission Health is dominant there.

“The evidence is overwhelming at this point,” Gaynor says. “Mergers solve some problems for hospitals, but they don’t make health care less expensive or better. In fact, prices usually go up.”

Mission Health CEO Paulus says he believes HCA is committed to restraining price increases and the growth in costs.

If no obstacles arise, Paulus says, HCA’s purchase of Mission Health would be formalized in August and finalized in November or December, pending state regulatory approval.

 

 

 

CALIFORNIA’S ACA RATES TO RISE 8.7% NEXT YEAR

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/finance/californias-aca-rates-rise-87-next-year

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About 10% of individual policyholders in and outside the exchange are expected to drop their coverage next year because the ACA fines were eliminated.

Premiums in California’s health insurance exchange will rise by an average of 8.7 percent next year, marking a return to more modest increases despite ongoing threats to the Affordable Care Act.

The state marketplace, Covered California, said the rate increase for 2019 would have been closer to 5 percent if the federal penalty for going without health coverage had not been repealed in last year’s Republican tax bill.

The average increase in California is smaller than the double-digit hikes expected around the nation, due largely to a healthier mix of enrollees and more competition in its marketplace. Still, health insurance prices keep growing faster than wages and general inflation as a result of rising medical costs overall, squeezing many middle-class families who are struggling to pay their household bills.

The 8.7 percent increase in California ends two consecutive years of double-digit rate increases for the state marketplace.

“It’s not great that health care costs are still increasing that much, but the individual market is not sticking out like a sore thumb like it has in other years,” said Kathy Hempstead, senior adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. “It’s falling back to earth.”

The future may be less bright. An estimated 262,000 Californians, or about 10 percent of individual policyholders in and outside the exchange, are expected to drop their coverage next year because the ACA fines were eliminated, according to the state. Peter Lee, executive director of Covered California, warned that the exodus of healthier consumers will drive up insurance costs beyond 2019 — not just for individual policyholders but for California employers and their workers.

“We are paying, in essence, a surcharge for federal policies that are making coverage more expensive than it should be,” Lee said in an interview. “There will be more of the uninsured and more uncompensated costs passed along to all of us.”

Critics of the Affordable Care Act say it has failed to contain medical costs and left consumers and taxpayers with heavy tabs . Nearly 90 percent of Covered California’s 1.4 million enrollees qualify for federal subsidies to help them afford coverage.

Foiled in its attempt to repeal Obamacare outright, the Trump administration has taken to rolling back key parts of the law and has slashed federal marketing dollars intended to boost enrollment. Instead, the administration backs cheaper alternatives, such as short-term coverage or association health plans, which don’t comply fully with ACA rules and tend to offer skimpier benefits with fewer consumer protections.

Taken together, those moves are likely to draw healthier, less expensive customers out of the ACA exchanges and leave sicker ones behind.

Nationally, 2019 premiums for silver plans — the second-cheapest and most popular plans offered — are expected to jump by 15 percent, on average, according to an analysis of 10 states and the District of Columbia by the Avalere consulting firm. Prices vary widely across the country, however. Decreases are expected in Minnesota while insurers in Maryland are seeking 30 percentincreases.

In California, exchange officials emphasized, consumers who shop around could pay the same rate as this year, or even a little less.

Christy McConville of Arcadia already spends about $1,800 a month on a Blue Shield plan for her family of four, opting for “platinum” coverage, the most expensive type. Her family doesn’t qualify for federal subsidies in Covered California.

She’s worried about further increases and doesn’t want to switch plans and risk losing access to the doctors she trusts. “We’re getting right up to the limit,” McConville said.

Amanda Malachesky, a nutrition coach in the Northern California town of Petrolia, said the elimination of the penalty for being uninsured makes dropping coverage more palatable. Her family of four pays almost $400 a month for a highly subsidized Anthem Blue Cross plan that has a $5,000 deductible.

“I’ve wanted to opt out of the insurance model forever just because they provide so little value for the exorbitant amount of money that we pay,” said Malachesky, who recently paid several hundred dollars out-of-pocket for a mammogram. “I’m probably going to disenroll … and not give any more money to these big bad insurance companies.”

Covered California is aiming to stem any enrollment losses by spending more than $100 million on advertising and outreach in the coming year. In contrast, the Trump administration spent only $10 million last year for advertising the federal exchange across the 34 states that use it.

Also, California lawmakers are looking at ways to fortify the state exchange. State legislators are considering bills that would limit the sale of short-term insurance and prevent people from joining association health plans that don’t have robust consumer protections.

However, California hasn’t pursued an insurance mandate and penalty at the state level, which both health plans and consumer advocates support. New Jersey and Vermont have enacted such measures.

Lee said it’s up to lawmakers to decide whether a state mandate makes sense.

David Panush, a Sacramento health care consultant and a former Covered California official, said some lawmakers may be reluctant to push the idea, even in deep-blue California.

“The individual mandate has always been the least popular piece of the Affordable Care Act,” he said.

Despite the constant uncertainty surrounding the health law, many insurers nationally are posting profits from their ACA business and some plans are looking to expand further on the exchanges.

In California, the same 11 insurers are returning, led by Kaiser Permanente and Blue Shield of California. Together, those two insurers control two-thirds of exchange enrollment. (Kaiser Health News, which publishes California Healthline, is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.)

The Covered California rate increases are fairly uniform across the state. Premiums are climbing 9 percent across most of Southern California as well as in San Francisco. Monterey, San Benito and Santa Cruz counties faced the highest increase at 16 percent, on average.

The rates are subject to state regulatory review but are unlikely to change significantly. Open enrollment on the exchange starts Oct. 15.

The ACA’s expansion of coverage has dramatically cut the number of uninsured Californians. The proportion of Californians lacking health insurance fell to 6.8 percent at the end of last year, down from 17 percent in 2013, federal data show.