No, Trump Hasn’t ‘Essentially Repealed Obamacare’

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/20/trump-obamacare-mandate-repeal-taxes-216125

Image result for ACA

Killing the mandate doesn’t gut the health care law. Most likely, it will muddle along, because the rest of it is broadly popular.

In July and again in September, Republicans narrowly failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act. But their newly passed tax legislation included a provision getting rid of Obamacare’s mandate requiring Americans to buy insurance, and President Donald Trump immediately declared victory in the partisan health care wars. “When the individual mandate is being repealed, that means Obamacare is being repealed,” he crowed at a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. “We have essentially repealed Obamacare.”

Well, no. The individual mandate is only part of Obamacare. It wasn’t even included in the original health care plan that Barack Obama unveiled during the 2008 campaign. The mandate did become an important element of Obamacare, and the only specific element that a majority of the public opposed. But the more generous elements of the program—like a major expansion of Medicaid, significant government subsidies for private insurance premiums, and strict protections for pre-existing conditions—are still popular, and still the law of the land.

“The death of Obamacare has been exaggerated,” says Larry Levitt, who oversees health reform studies at the Kaiser Family Foundation. “Eliminating the mandate creates uncertainty, but all the benefits for people remain in place.”

The Republican ecstasy and Democratic gloom over the death of the mandate reflects the most consistent misperception over the seven-plus years of Affordable Care Act debates, the incorrect assumption that the “Obamacare exchanges,” where Americans can buy private insurance, are synonymous with Obamacare. The vast majority of Americans who get their coverage through Medicare, Medicaid or their employers shouldn’t be affected. Yes, killing the mandate could cause problems for the remaining 6 percent of Americans who have to buy insurance on the open market, but nearly half will remain eligible for subsidies that would insulate them from any premium hikes.

Repealing the tax penalties for Americans who don’t buy insurance would not repeal Obamacare’s perks for Americans who do—like the ban on annual and lifetime caps that insurers previously used to cut off coverage for their sickest customers, or the provision allowing parents to keep their children on their plans until they turn 26. And it would not repeal Obamacare’s “delivery reforms” that are quietly transforming the financial incentives in the medical system, gradually shifting reimbursements to reward the quality rather than quantity of care. The growth of U.S. health care costs has slowed dramatically since the launch of Obamacare, and the elimination of the mandate should not significantly affect that trend.

In fact, during the 2008 campaign, Obama was the only Democratic candidate whose health plan did not include a mandate, because he was the only Democratic candidate who thought the main problem with health care was its cost. “It’s just too expensive,” he explained at an Iowa event in May 2007. Insurance premiums had almost doubled during the George W. Bush era, and Obama believed that was the reason so many Americans were uninsured. He doubted it would be worth the political heartburn to try to force people to buy insurance they couldn’t afford.

But Obama eventually embraced the argument that a mandate was necessary to ensure that young and healthy Americans bought insurance. The fear was that otherwise, insurance markets dominated by the old and sick (who would enjoy the law’s new protections for pre-existing conditions) would have produced even higher premiums, and might scare insurers away from serving Americans who don’t get coverage through their jobs or the government. Killing the mandate will be a step in that direction, boosting Trump’s heighten-the-contradictions effort to sabotage the functioning of Obamacare to build support for a more sweeping repeal.

That effort has already produced some damaging results for the exchanges. Insurers have increased their premiums for 2018, repeatedly citing uncertainty over Trump’s efforts to blow up Obamacare as well as his decision to cut off promised payments to insurers who cover lower-income families. Several insurers left the exchanges even before the elimination of the mandate, and others could follow.

But the widespread warnings that wide swaths of America would have no insurers on the exchanges were wrong; there are zero “bare counties” with no insurers for 2018. And a Kaiser review found the exchanges have gotten more profitable for insurers this year,despite Trump’s efforts to damage them. This year’s enrollment period appears to have gone fairly well even though the Trump administration shortened it by half and slashed its promotional budget.

The fear is that eliminating the mandate could produce a “death spiral” for the exchanges, where higher premiums scare away healthier customers, leading to even higher premiums and even sicker customers—until eventually,the insurers decide to bail. It could also encourage insurers to try to lure healthier customers with cheaper but skimpier plans that don’t provide protections for pre-existing conditions, since those customers would no longer have to pay a tax penalty.

But it is also possible that younger and healthier customers who initially bought insurance because they were required to do so will now buy insurance because they want to; surveys show that more than 75 five percent of Americans covered on the exchanges are happy with their coverage. And as a political matter, repealing the unpopular mandate could make it even harder for Republicans to pass legislation repealing insurance protections, Medicaid expansions and the rest of Obamacare, because the rest of Obamacare is popular. It’s not surprising that Republicans managed to kill the law’s vegetables, but it won’t be as easy to kill dessert.

Trump thinks congressional Democrats will soon be begging him to come up with a replacement for Obamacare, and even many Republicans who don’t embrace that fantasy believe the demise of the mandate will ratchet up pressure for a permanent solution to a seven-year political war. It could happen. But there hasn’t been a lot of bipartisanship in Washington lately, and after the Doug Jones upset in Alabama, it seems unlikely that a Senate with one fewer Republican will be more amenable to a Republican-only repeal bill.

The most likely outcome seems to be at least a few more years of Obamacare muddling through, and at least a few more years of Obamacare political warfare.

 

Challenges Abound For 26-Year-Olds Falling Off Parental Insurance Cliff

https://khn.org/news/challenges-abound-for-26-year-olds-falling-off-parental-insurance-cliff/

Marguerite Moniot felt frustrated and flummoxed, despite the many hours she spent in front of the computer this year reading consumer reviews of health insurance plans offered on the individual market in Virginia. Moniot was preparing to buy a policy of her own, knowing she would age out of her parent’s plan when she turned 26 in October.

Marguerite Moniot recently purchased health insurance on the open market with the help of a health navigator. She and her parents began searching for a policy several months ago, but the details of each plan became too complicated for the family. (Courtesy of Marguerite Moniot)

She asked her parents for help and advice. But they, too, ran into trouble trying to decipher which policy would work best for their daughter. The family had relied on her father’s employer-sponsored plan through his work as an architect for years, so no one had spent much time sifting through policies.

“Honestly, my parents were just as confused as I was,” said Moniot, a restaurant server in Roanoke.

In defeat, just before Thanksgiving, she went with her mother to meet a certified health insurance navigator, buying a policy that allowed her to keep her current doctors.

A new crop of young people like Moniot are falling off their parents’ insurance plans when they turn 26 — the age when the Affordable Care Act stipulates that children must leave family policies.

They were then expected to be able to shop relatively easily for their own insurance on Obamacare marketplaces. But with Trump administration revisions to the law and congressional bills injecting uncertainty into state insurance markets, that task of buying insurance for the first time this year is anything but simple.

The shortened sign-up period, which started Nov. 1, runs through Dec. 15. That window is half as long as last year’s, hampering those who wait until the last minute to obtain insurance.

Reminders and help are scarcer than before: The federal government cut marketing and outreach funds by $90 million, and federal funding to groups providing in-person assistance was whacked by 40 percent.

“I think it’s definitely going to be difficult. There’s just additional barriers with [less] in-person help, just fewer resources going around,” said Erin Hemlin, director of training and consumer education for Young Invincibles, an advocacy group for young adults.

Emily Curran, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Health Policy Institute, said those actions combined with the Trump administration’s vigorous criticism of the health law could further handicap the uphill battle to entice young people to enroll. As of Dec. 2, more than 3.6 million people had enrolled through the federal marketplace, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The data were not sorted by age.

“There’s already a barrier where young adults are having difficulty understanding what the value of insurance is,” she said. “Coming out … and saying prices are going up, choice is going down and this law is a mess doesn’t really get at the young adult population.”

Trouble Attracting Young Adults 

Before the Affordable Care Act, young adults had the highest uninsured rate of any age group.

The ACA made coverage more affordable and accessible. It allowed states to expand Medicaid to cover single, childless adults. Tax credits to help pay for premiums made plans on the individual market more affordable for people whose incomes fell between 100 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level (between $12,060 and $48,240 for an individual). And young adults were allowed to stay on their parents’ plan until their 26th birthday.

If the Trump administration’s moves dampen enrollment, insurers could face additional challenges in attracting healthy adults to balance those with illnesses, who drive up costs.In all, the uninsured rate dropped to roughly 15 percent among 19- to 34-year-olds in 2016. Still, young adults have not joined the individual market in the numbers as expected. About a quarter of marketplace customers in 2016 were ages 18-34, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. But that age group makes up about 40 percent of the exchanges’ potential market, according to researchers and federal officials.

“When you’re relatively healthy, it’s not something that you’re thinking about,” said Sandy Ahn, associate research professor at Georgetown University’s Health Policy Institute.

But illness does not recognize age. Dominique Ridley, who turned 26 on Dec. 6, knows this all too well.

Ridley has asthma. She always carries an inhaler and sees a doctor when she feels her chest tighten. The student at Radford University in Virginia relies on her mother’s employer-sponsored plan for coverage.

Ridley started peppering her parents with questions about health insurance as soon as she started seeing ads for this year’s open enrollment.

“I don’t want to just go out there and apply for health insurance, and it be all kinds of wrong and I can’t afford it,” she said.

Her parents didn’t have the answers, but her mother linked up Ridley with a friend that runs a marketing company tailored to promoting the Affordable Care Act. Ridley then connected with a broker who signed her up for a silver plan that will cost her less than $4 per month, after receiving a premium subsidy of more than $500 a month.

“If you don’t have health insurance, you don’t have anything,” Ridley said.

A Digital Campaign 

The Obama administration relied in part on partnerships to attract young enrollees to sign up. Last year, it collaborated with national organizations like Planned Parenthood Federation of America and Young Invincibles on a social media campaign called #HealthyAdulting. Emails, according to Joshua Peck, former chief marketing officer for healthcare.gov, were particularly effective for recruitment.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which oversees the marketplaces, said it will focus this year’s resources on “digital media, email and text messages.”

“But obviously we can’t make up for $90 million in advertising” that’s been cut, said Hemlin.Hemlin said the government has not asked Young Invincibles to assist in marketing. Her group will use its own resources to pay for targeted ads on social media to reach the target demographic, she said.

One factor that might compensate is that 20-somethings are facile at shopping online, said Jill Hanken, director of Enroll! Virginia, a statewide navigator program.

“Our job is to make sure they understand to look at provider networks and drug formularies if they have health concerns. But they’re able to do the mechanics of enrollment on their own very often.”

James Rowley, a 26-year-old entrepreneur from Fairfax, Va., is among those who signed up without help. He started his own company two years ago while covered under his father’s health plan. When he turned 26, he signed up for health insurance on his own through a special enrollment period this year. After general enrollment opened this fall, he once again picked a plan.

“I might not 100 percent need it now, but there will come a time where health insurance is important,” said Rowley.

 

 

5 Outside-The-Box Ideas For Fixing The Individual Insurance Market

http://khn.org/news/5-outside-the-box-ideas-for-fixing-the-individual-insurance-market/?utm_campaign=KHN%3A%20First%20Edition&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=55788948&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8Lj78cF_NmoRuvutfOaMAjSMxSBfQwO9kWGZQ0tmdcqApzatJ32_CKq88odmT7deaTbnhlF9vd6ud7OAaZQtm97RS4AA&_hsmi=55788948

 

With Republican efforts to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act stalled, tentative bipartisan initiatives are in the works to shore up the fragile individual insurance market that serves roughly 17 million Americans.

The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee launches hearings the week Congress returns in September on “stabilizing premiums in the individual insurance market” that will feature state governors and insurance commissioners. A bipartisan group in the House is also working to come up with compromise proposals.

Both before and after implementation of the federal health law, this market — serving people who don’t get coverage through work or the government — has proved problematic. Before the law, many people with preexisting health conditions could not get insurance at any price. Now, consumers in the individual market often face higher out-of-pocket costs and fewer choices of health care providers and insurers than in past years. More than 12 million people buy that insurance through the ACA’s marketplaces, while another 5 million buy it outside of the exchanges.

Policymakers generally agree on what immediate efforts to stabilize the market might include. At the top of most lists is ensuring federal payment of subsidies to insurers to pay the out-of-pocket expenses — such as deductibles and copayments — to protect customers with the lowest incomes. Insurers also want the federal government to continue enforcing the requirement that most Americans either have insurance or pay a tax penalty, and continuing efforts to get uninsured people to sign up for coverage during the upcoming open enrollment period, from Nov. 1 to Dec. 15. Those efforts are essential, insurers say, to help keep healthy customers in their risk pools to defray the costs of beneficiaries with medical needs.

But what about ideas that go beyond the oft-repeated ones? Here are five proposals that are more controversial but generating buzz.

Get Health Insurance Through Your Employer? ACA Repeal Will Affect You, Too

http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2017/01/11/get-health-insurance-through-your-employer-aca-repeal-will-affect-you-too/

Close-up photograph of an employee group health insurance application form.

Much of the recent attention on the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has focused on the fate of the 22.5 million people likely to lose insurance through a repeal of Medicaid expansion and the loss of protections and subsidies in the individual insurance market. Overlooked in the declarations of who stands to lose under plans to “repeal and replace” the ACA are those enrolled in employer-sponsored health plans — the primary source of coverage for people under 65.

Job-based plans offered to employees and their families cover 150 million people in the United States. If the ACA is repealed, they stand to lose critical consumer protections that many have come to expect of their employer plan.

It’s easy to understand the focus on the individuals who gained access to coverage thanks to the health reform law. ACA drafters targeted most of the law’s insurance reforms at the individual and small-group markets, where consumers and employers had the greatest difficulty finding affordable, adequate coverage prior to health reform. The ACA’s market reforms made coverage available to those individuals with pre-existing conditions who couldn’t obtain coverage in the pre-ACA world, and more affordable for those low- and moderate-income families who couldn’t afford coverage on their own.

Less noticed, but no less important, the ACA also brought critical new protections to people in large employer plans. Although most large employer plans were relatively comprehensive and affordable before the ACA, some plans offered only skimpy coverage or had other barriers to accessing care, leaving individuals—particularly those with costly, chronic health conditions—with big bills and uncovered medical care. For that reason, the ACA extended several meaningful protections to employees of large businesses.

7 things you need to know about the future of Obamacare

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-obamacare-explainer-20170105-story.html?utm_campaign=KHN%3A+Daily+Health+Policy+Report&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=40201659&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9Uem4u-88vm0uSaKSUtpimygRZcnoFsTKnFjgSMV_-DO2M1uADZ2botlQqf2or2w1gLrjuw6jxaztyZOpFjfhhh2nvKQ&_hsmi=40201659

You’ve seen the headlines and you’ve heard the slogans: Obamacare is on the chopping block and President-elect Donald Trump is going to replace it with “something terrific.”

But what are the new president and Congress really going to do? How much of the current law will really go away? And what could “Trumpcare” look like?

In case it’s been a while since you read about the Affordable Care Act and the GOP replacement plans, here’s a refresher on the biggest Obamacare issues.

How will Trump change healthcare? 6 of the biggest questions answered

http://managedhealthcareexecutive.modernmedicine.com/managed-healthcare-executive/news/how-will-trump-affect-healthcare-6-biggest-questions-answered?cfcache=true&ampGUID=A13E56ED-9529-4BD1-98E9-318F5373C18F&rememberme=1&ts=02122016

Throughout his campaign and in the days following the election, President-elect Donald Trump said that one of his top priorities as the commander in chief would be to repeal and replace Obamacare, a major component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). By having a Republican president as well as the GOP holding a majority in Congress (which also support its repeal), it’s likely that this will occur, says Ashraf Shehata, MBA, advisory leader for health plans and partner of the firm’s Global Healthcare Center of Excellence, KPMG.

But how do you go about replacing Obamacare when 20 million Americans are now obtaining healthcare coverage from it?

20 Questions for President Trump

20 Questions for President Trump

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The last six and a half years have been uncharted territory in our nation’s century-long debate over health reform. For the first time the fight was about how to implement an attempt at near-universal coverage rather over what this plan should look like and what could win enough support in Congress. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has survived major political, legislative, and legal tests, including dozens of repeal votes, two Supreme Court decisions, the 2012 presidential election, and state-level resistance.

I was outside the Supreme Court on June 25, 2015 when the King v. Burwell decision was released. I was there the moment activists switched their signs from saying “Don’t you dare take my care” to “The ACA is here to stay.” I wrote that we could finally say with some certainty that they were right, the law is here to stay. They were wrong. I was wrong.

Donald Trump’s victory throws the future of health reform into complete chaos. He will take office in January 2017 with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. President Trump, Speaker Ryan, and Senate Majority Leader McConnell have all made repeated promises to get rid of Obamacare. They will face enormous pressure to follow through with their threats of repeal. Approximately 21 million people are projected to lose insurance if they follow through with their initial proposals.

The first step to figuring out where to go from here is understanding what decisions are on the horizon. Here are my first 20 questions about health reform under the Trump administration , in no particular order: