Hospital financial and operational performance could be threatened by a trend showing a growth in the cost of expenses outpacing that of revenue, according to a Kaufman Hall National Hospital Flash Report.
“While performance has generally been strong this year, profitability has decreased slightly over the past few months. Bad debt and charity care also continue to rise. In addition, operating margins for health systems are about one percent lower than hospital margins. This points to potential challenges for hospitals and health systems to weather future uncertainty,” said Erik Swanson, managing director and group leader, Data and Analytics, at Kaufman Hall.
WHY THIS MATTERS
What the report shows is that hospital performance has softened in recent months.
While patient volumes and revenues are trending upward, bad debt and charity care are also elevated.
Expense growth is outpacing revenue growth, with non-labor expenses putting pressure on hospitals. Supplies are up 26% compared to 2022, and drugs costs are up 31% compared to 2022.
Margins have improved over prior years, though there has been some softening in recent months. Given an uncertain future outlook, many hospitals are taking steps to build long-term resiliency, the report said.
Operating margins in August 2024 were 4.6% but fell to 5% in December 2024. Starting in January, margins jumped to 6.9% and remained in the 6.2% range until this past June, when they fell to 5.5% and in July, 5.3%.
Profitability is down from 48% in July 2024 to 27% this year.
THE LARGER TREND
Data for the report came from more than 1,300 hospitals sampled on a monthly basis from Strata Decision Technology.
The sample of hospitals for the report represents all types of hospitals in the United States, from large academic to small critical access hospitals, geographically and by bed size.
Kaufman Hall, a Vizient company, provides advisory services and management consulting.
The nonprofit health system narrowed its operating loss while continuing to grapple with financial and policy pressures as it progresses towards profitability.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Providence cut its operating loss in the second quarter to $21 million, improving from a $123 million loss a year ago.
Revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $7.91 billion, driven by higher patient volumes and better commercial rates.
The health system faces ongoing “polycrisis” challenges, including rising supply costs, staffing mandates, insurer denials, and looming Medicaid cuts, which have already prompted layoffs, hiring pauses, and leadership restructuring.
Providence made promising strides toward financial sustainability in the second quarter as higher patient volumes helped trim an operating loss that has weighed heavily on its balance sheet.
Yet the Renton, Washington-based health system warned that a compounding set of external pressures, which it labeled a “polycrisis,” still poses formidable challenges to its mission and future.
For the three months ended June 30, the nonprofit reported an operating loss of $21 million, equating to an operating margin of –0.3%, representing a marked improvement from the $123 million loss (–1.6%) posted over the same period in 2024. Compared with the previous quarter, the gain was even starker as Providence trimmed its deficit by $223 million. Through the first six months of the year, the health system had an operating loss of $265 million (-1.7%).
Revenue growth was fueled by higher patient volumes and improved commercial rates, Providence highlighted. Operating revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $7.91 billion as inpatient admissions (up 3%), outpatient visits (up 3%), case mix–adjusted admissions (up 3%), physician visits (up 8%), and outpatient surgeries (up 5%) all contributed.
On the expense side, Providence managed a 2% rise in operating costs to $7.93 billion, thanks largely to productivity gains, including a 43% reduction in agency contract labor. However, supply costs swelled by 9% and pharmacy expenses jumped by 12% year-over-year.
Providence, along with the healthcare industry at large, faces what CEO Erik Wexler called a “polycrisis” due to a mix of inflation, tariff-driven supply pressures, new state laws on staffing and charity care, insurer reimbursement delays and denials, and looming federal Medicaid cuts, especially from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the health system said “threatens to intensify health care pressures.”
Those factors are significantly influencing hospitals’ and health systems’ decision-making. Providence has made staffing adjustments that include cutting 128 jobs in Oregon earlier this month, a restructuring in June that eliminated 600 full-time equivalent positions, apause on nonclinical hiring in April, and leadership reorganization since Wexler took over as CEO in January.
Accounts receivable is another area that has been indicative of headwinds, with Providence noting that while it improved in the second quarter, it “remains elevated compared to historical trends.”
Even with the roadblocks in its path, Providence is working towards profitability after being in the red for several years running.
“I’m incredibly proud of the progress we’ve made and grateful to our caregivers and teams across Providence St. Joseph Health for their continued dedication,” Wexler said in the news release. “The strain remains, especially with emerging challenges like H.R.1, but we will continue to respond to the times and answer the call while transforming for the future.”
Self-dealing is illegal in banks, real estate, and investment firms, but in health insurance, it’s not only legal, it’s widespread. Large insurers have spent decades consolidating the U.S. health care system, acquiring medical practices, pharmacies, and pharmacy benefit managers, all while sidestepping rules meant to protect patients and taxpayers.
For example, UnitedHealth Group has 2,694 subsidiaries, as documented in the Center for Health and Democracy’s Sunlight Report on UnitedHealth Group. Within this conglomerate, there are 589 clinician practice locations across 32 states acquired between 2007 and 2023. UnitedHealth Group also has 24 subsidiary pharmacy benefit managers and over 30 subsidiary pharmacies. Data and insider accounts suggest that UnitedHealth Group and other vertically integrated insurers engage in self-dealing to increase profits. The ways these subsidiaries interact closely resembles self-dealing practices that are prohibited by law in other industries, such as banking, real estate, and investment firms.
As Dr. Seth Glickman and I have explained in earlier pieces, when a health insurer owns or controls medical practices, pharmacy benefit managers, or pharmacies, it can circumvent medical loss ratio (MLR) regulations. MLR rules require insurance companies to spend 80–85% of premium dollars on medical costs, leaving the remainder for administrative fees and profits. Unitedhealth Group, for instance, reportedly pays its own subsidiary providers above-market rates for medical services. These payments count as “medical costs” under MLR rules, yet the subsidiaries retain the excess as profit. Similarly, when a patient uses Optum Rx, a UnitedHealth Group subsidiary, or a subsidiary pharmacy, the fees added by the PBM are counted as medical costs, even though they are retained as profit by the parent company.
In banking, such actions are expressly prohibited. Consider a bank CEO who owns a real estate development company and seeks a loan for a risky project. If the bank lends to the CEO’s company at a below-market interest rate, the loan violates federal law and could trigger millions in fines as well as civil and criminal charges for both the CEO and the bank. This scenario parallels UnitedHealth Group’s current operations. In both cases, customer money (depositor funds in a bank; premium dollars in insurance) is used to funnel profit to insiders or affiliates, bypassing the market discipline that governs arm’s-length transactions.
Real estate law similarly prohibits self-dealing. Imagine a real estate agent hired to sell a client’s home who secretly buys the property through an affiliate at a lower price than the market reflects. By underrepresenting the home’s value, the agent enriches themselves at the client’s expense. This violates state real estate laws and common law fiduciary duties. The parallel in Insurance is clear: insurers pay inflated prices to their owned practices, driving up care costs and premiums. In both cases, the fiduciary is using client assets (property or premium dollars) to generate hidden profits for themselves or their affiliates, avoiding fair-market competition.
Investment advisers are also prohibited from similar practices. If you hire a broker to get the best price for a stock trade, the broker cannot quietly route the trade to an affiliate at a worse price so the affiliate profits. Even small losses per trade scale into substantial gains for the broker’s affiliate, all at the client’s expense. These actions violate the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and SEC rules when proper disclosure or consent is not obtained. Similarly, insurers use premium dollars to channel profits to subsidiaries instead of relying on competitive market pricing.
The stark parallels between self-dealing in banks, real estate, and investment brokerages, which Congress regulated decades ago, and health insurance are damning. Health insurance conglomerates have built empires on paying themselves to the detriment of patients and taxpayers. Congress must act to regulate this type of self-dealing in insurance as it does in other industries.
Moreover, the depth of insurer control over the patient care system necessitates regulations to prevent vertical monopolies, where insurers dominate every stage of care delivery.
The U.S. health care industry is approaching a critical inflection point, according to veteran health care strategist Paul Keckley. In a candid and thought-provoking keynote at the 2025 Healthcare Marketing & Physician Strategies Summit (HMPS) in Orlando, Keckley outlined the challenges and potential opportunities health care leaders must navigate in an era of unprecedented economic uncertainty, regulatory disruption, and consumer discontent.
Drawing on decades of policy experience and his signature candid style, Keckley delivered a sobering yet actionable assessment of where the industry stands and what lies ahead.
Paul Keckley, PhD, health care research and policy expert and managing editor of The Keckley Report
Health care now accounts for a staggering 28 percent of the federal budget, with Medicaid expenditures alone ranging from the low 20s to 34 percent of individual state budgets. Despite its fiscal significance, Keckley points out that health care remains “not really a system, but a collection of independent sectors that cohabit the economy.”
In the article that follows, Keckley warns of a reckoning for those who remain entrenched in legacy assumptions. On the flip side, he notes, “The future is going to be built by those who understand the consumer, embrace transparency, and adapt to the realities of a post-institutional world.”
A Fractured System in a Fractured Economy
Fragmentation complicates any effort to meaningfully address rising costs or care quality. It also heightens the stakes in a political climate marked by what Keckley termed “MAGA, DOGE, and MAHA” factions, shorthand for various ideological forces shaping health care policy under the Trump 2.0 administration.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions are only adding to the strain. At the time of Keckley’s address, the S&P 500 was down 8 percent, the Dow down 10 percent, and inflationary pressures were squeezing both provider margins and household budgets.
“Economic uncertainty is not just about Wall Street,” Keckley warns. “It’s about kitchen-table economics — how households decide between paying for care or paying the cable bill.”
Traditional Forecasting Is Failing
One of Keckley’s key messages was that conventional methods of strategic planning in health care, based on lagging indicators like utilization rates and demographics, are no longer sufficient. Instead, leaders must increasingly look to external forces such as capital markets, regulatory volatility, and consumer behavior.
“Think outside-in,” he urges. “Forces outside health care are shaping its future more than forces within.”
He encourages health systems to go beyond isolated market studies and adopt holistic scenario planning that considers clinical innovation, workforce shifts, AI and tech disruption, and capital availability as interconnected variables.
Affordability and Accountability: The Hospital Reckoning
Keckley pulls no punches in addressing the mounting criticism of hospitals on Capitol Hill, particularly not-for-profit health systems. Public perception is faltering, with hospital pricing increasing faster than other categories in health care and only a third of providers in full compliance with price transparency rules.
“Economic uncertainty is not just about Wall Street. It’s about kitchen-table economics — how households decide between paying for care or paying the cable bill.”
“We have to get honest about trust, transparency, and affordability,” he says. “I’ve been in 11 system strategy sessions this year. Only one even mentioned affordability on their website, and none defined it.”
Keckley also predicts that popular regulatory targets like site-neutral payments, the 340B program, and nonprofit tax exemptions will face intensified scrutiny.
“Hospitals are no longer viewed as sacred institutions,” he says. “They’re being seen as part of the problem, especially by younger, more educated, and more skeptical Americans.”
The Consumer Awakens
Perhaps the most urgent shift Keckley outlines is the redefinition of the health care consumer. “We call them patients,” he says, “but they are consumers. And they are not happy.”
Keckley cites polling data showing that two out of three Americans believe the health care system needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Roughly 40 percent of U.S. households have at least one unpaid medical bill, with many choosing intentionally not to pay. Among Gen Y and younger households, dissatisfaction is particularly acute.
“[Consumers] expect digital, personalized, seamless experiences — and they don’t understand why health care can’t deliver.”
These consumers aren’t just passive recipients of care; they’re voters, payers, and critics. With 14 percent of health care spending now coming directly from households, Keckley argues, health systems must engage consumers with the same sophistication that retail and tech companies use.
“They expect digital, personalized, seamless experiences — and they don’t understand why health care can’t deliver.”
Tech Disruption Is Real
Keckley underscores the transformative potential of AI and emerging clinical technologies, noting that in the next five years, more than 60 GLP-1-like therapeutic innovations could come to market. But the deeper disruption, he warns, is likely to come from outside the traditional industry.
Citing his own son’s work at Microsoft, Keckley envisions a future where a consumer’s smartphone, not a provider or insurer, is the true hub of health information. “Health care data will be consumer-controlled. That’s where this is headed.”
The takeaway for providers: Embrace data interoperability and consumer-centric technology now, or risk irrelevance. “The Amazons and Apples of the world are not waiting for CMS to set the rules,” Keckley says.
Capital, Consolidation, and Private Equity
Capital constraints and the shifting role of private equity also featured prominently in Keckley’s remarks. With declining non-operating revenue and shrinking federal dollars, some health systems increasingly rely on investor-backed funding.
But this comes with reputational and operational risks. While PE investments have been beneficial to shareholders, Keckley says, they’ve also produced “some pretty dire results for consumers” — particularly in post-acute care and physician practice consolidation.
“Policymakers are watching,” he says. “Expect legislation that will limit or redefine what private equity can do in health care.”
Politics and Optics: Navigating the Policy Minefield
In the regulatory arena, Keckley emphasizes that perception often matters more than substance. “Optics matter often more than the policy itself,” he says.
He cautions health leaders not to expect sweeping policy reform but to brace for “de jure chaos” as the current administration focuses on symbolic populist moves — cutting executive compensation, promoting price transparency, and attacking nonprofit tax exemptions.
With the 2026 midterm elections looming large, Keckley predicts a wave of executive orders and rhetorical grandstanding. But substantive policy change will be incremental and unpredictable.
“Don’t wait for a rescue from Washington. The future is going to be built by those who understand the consumer, embrace transparency, and adapt to the realities of a post-institutional world.”
The Workforce Crisis That Wasn’t Solved
Keckley also addresses the persistent shortage of health care workers and the failure of Title V of the ACA, which had promised to modernize the workforce through new team-based models. “Our guilds didn’t want it,” Keckley notes, bluntly. “So nothing happened.”
He argues that states, not the federal government, will drive the next chapter of workforce reform, expanding the scope of practice for pharmacists, nurse practitioners, and even lay caregivers, particularly in behavioral health and primary care.
What Should Leaders Do Now?
Keckley closed his keynote with a challenge for marketers and strategists: Get serious about defining affordability, understand capital markets, and stop defaulting to legacy assumptions.
“Don’t wait for a rescue from Washington,” he says. “The future is going to be built by those who understand the consumer, embrace transparency, and adapt to the realities of a post-institutional world.”
He encouraged leaders to monitor shifting federal org charts, track state-level policy moves, and scenario-plan for a future where trust, access, and consumer empowerment define success.
Conclusion: A Health Care Reckoning in the Making
Keckley’s keynote was more than a policy forecast; it was a wake-up call. In a landscape shaped by economic headwinds, political volatility, and consumer rebellion, health care leaders can no longer afford to stay in their lane. They must engage, adapt, and transform, or risk becoming casualties of a system under siege.
“Health care is not just one of 11 big industries,” Keckley says. “It’s the one that touches everyone. And right now, no one is giving us a standing ovation.”
HENRY KOTULA 