http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/05/24/why-todays-poll-numbers-on-health-proposals-are-bound-to-change/?utm_campaign=2016-Drew-WSJ-May-24-polls-ideas-legislation&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-99JEsdv7eJnUdzjj2w7ZbRJN7Wd9noBGIThqhMyBOHKlc-5lBAWltURMs3EdIT4gYqj_TLYI4KhLxHcSg4KZfO1-ag1w&_hsmi=29882227&utm_content=29882227&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=7c94cb34-47b8-4e25-8c1c-cc32f0f28b54%7Cb5c82547-560b-4700-814f-11ce1ecc8232

Gallup polling released last week showed majority support–58%–for replacing the Affordable Care Act with a federally funded health system. The same poll found 51% support for repealing the ACA. There is a basic point that often gets lost in reaction to poll findings like these: They measure the public’s initial response to ideas and words, and proposals such as single payer or ACA repeal that people associate with candidates–but they don’t tell us much about the likely level of support for a policy if there is a real debate about legislation before Congress, with winners and losers laid bare.

It’s always a fair bet that support would decline for big changes that come with big trade-offs–whether it is single-payer health care or ACA repeal or something else–but there is no way to know those levels in advance, and support could rise or fall depending on how a legislative debate plays out. Consider single-payer health care as an example. In February, the Kaiser Family Foundation monthly tracking poll simulated some of the arguments the public might hear in a debate about single payer.