How the GOP could dial back Obamacare

The massive Republican budget bill working its way through Congress has mostly drawn attention for its tax cuts and Medicaid changes.

  • But it would also take steps to significantly roll back coverage under the Affordable Care Act, with echoes of the 2017 repeal-replace debate.

Why it matters: 

The bill that passed the House before Memorial Day includes an overhaul of ACA marketplaces that would result in coverage losses for millions of Americans and savings to help cover the cost of extending President Trump’s tax cuts, Peter Sullivan wrote first on Pro.

  • It comes after a growth spurt that saw ACA marketplace enrollment reach new highs, with more than 24 million people enrolling for 2025, according to KFF. The House’s changes would likely reverse that trend, unless the Senate goes in a different direction when it picks up the bill next week.

Driving the news: 

The changes are not as sweeping as the 2017 effort at repealing the law, but many of them erect barriers to enrollment that supporters say are aimed at fighting fraud.

  • Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute and a health official in Trump’s first administration, said Republicans are focusing on rolling back Biden-era expansions “that have led to massive fraud and inefficiency.”
  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates the ACA marketplace-related provisions would lead to about 3 million more people becoming uninsured.
  • Cynthia Cox, a vice president at KFF, said while the changes “sound very technical” in nature, taken together “the implications are that it will be much harder for people to sign up for ACA marketplace plans.”

What’s inside: 

The bill would end automatic reenrollment in ACA plans for people getting subsidies, instead requiring them to proactively reenroll and resubmit information about their incomes for verification.

  • It would also prevent enrollees from provisionally receiving ACA subsidies in instances where extra eligibility checks are needed, which can take months.
  • If people wound up making more income than they had estimated for a given year, the bill removes the cap on the amount of ACA subsidies they would have to repay to the government.
  • Some legal immigrants would also be cut off from ACA subsidies, including people granted asylum and those in their five-year waiting period to be eligible for Medicaid.

What they’re saying: 

In a letter to Congress, patient groups pointed to the various barriers as “unprecedented and onerous requirements to access health coverage” that would have “a devastating impact on people’s ability to access and afford private insurance coverage.”

  • The letter was signed by groups including the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, American Diabetes Association and American Lung Association.

Between the lines: 

A last-minute addition to the bill would also make a technical but important change that increases government payments to insurers in ACA marketplaces.

  • That would have the effect of reducing the subsidies that help people afford premiums and save the government money, by reducing the benchmark silver premiums that are used to set the subsidy amounts.
  • Democrats are concerned that if Congress also allows enhanced ACA subsidies to expire at the end of this year, the combined effect would be even higher premium increases for enrollees next year.

Insurers that already are planning their premium rates for next year say the Republican funding changes are throwing uncertainty into the mix.

  • “Disruption in the individual market could also result in much higher premiums,” the trade group AHIP warned in a statement on the bill.

The big picture: 

Blase said changes like ending automatic reenrollment are needed to increase checks that ensure people are not claiming higher subsidies than they’re entitled to.

  • Cox said another way to address fraud would be to target shady insurance brokers, rather than enrollees themselves. She estimated that marketplace enrollment could fall by roughly one-third from all the changes together.
  • “The justification for many of these provisions is to address fraud,” she said. “The question is, how many people who are legitimately signed up are going to get lost in that process?”

They Cut Medicaid, Not the Waste: Congress Protects Big Insurance While Slashing Care

The House of Representatives’ reconciliation bill, passed by the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee today, cuts just about everything when it comes to health care – except the actual waste, fraud and abuse. Now the bill heads to the floor for a vote of the full House of Representatives before it must also be passed by the Senate to become law. 

I know what you’re thinking: not another story about Medicaid. With the flood of articles detailing the devastating Medicaid cuts proposed by House Republicans —cuts that could strip 8.7 million people of their health coverage — there’s an important fact being overlooked: Members of Congress chose to sidestep policies aimed at reining in Big Insurance abuses and, instead, opted to cut Medicaid.

And the real irony of it all is they could have saved a ton of money if they would just address the elephant in the room. 

Abuses by Big Insurance companies have been going on for decades but have only recently come under scrutiny. Insurance companies figured out how to take advantage of the structure of the Medicare Advantage program to receive higher payments from the government.

They do this in two ways:

  1. They make their enrollees seem sicker than they are through a strategy called “upcoding” and;
  2. They use care obstacles such as prior authorization and inadequate provider networks that eventually drive sicker people to drop their plans and leave them with healthier enrollees, referred to as “favorable selection.” 

According to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) these tactics lead the government to overpay insurance corporations running MA plans by $84 billion a year. This number is expected to grow, and estimates show that overpayments will cost the government more than a $1 trillion from 2025-2034. That is $1 trillion dollars in potential savings Republicans could have included in their bill instead of cutting Medicaid spending that provides care for vulnerable communities. 

These overpayments do not lead to better care in MA plans; in fact, research has shown that care quality and outcomes are often worse in MA compared to traditional Medicare. Even worse, these overpayments are tax dollars meant for health care that end up in the pockets of shareholders of big insurance corporations, which spend billions of taxpayer dollars on things like stock buybacks and executive bonuses. 

One of the most frustrating parts of the lawmaker’s choice to target Medicaid rather than Big Insurance abuses is that there are multiple policies supported by both Republicans and Democrats to stop these abuses. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana), along with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon), have introduced the NO UPCODE Act, which would cut down on the practice of upcoding explained above. President Trump’s Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Dr. Mehmet Oz, said during his confirmation hearing that he supports efforts to crack down on practices used by insurers to upcode. And Rep. Mark Green (R-Tennessee) introduced a bipartisan bill to decrease improper prior authorization denials in MA. 

In a somewhat cruel twist, the only mention of Medicare fraud in the Republican reconciliation bill proposals is a section claiming to crack down on improper payments in Medicare Parts A and B (which make up traditional Medicare) by using artificial intelligence.

The total improper payments in TM represent just over one-third of the overpayments going to MA plans each year, and many of the payments flagged as improper in TM are flagged due to missing documentation rather than questionable tactics that MA insurers use. 

In reflecting on why Republicans in Congress ignored potential savings from Big Insurance reforms and instead pursued cuts to care for people depending on Medicaid, which do not save as much, my biggest question was, why?

Why would lawmakers swerve around a populist policy right in front of them to stop Big Insurance from profiting off of the federal government to instead propose a regressive policy that targets millions of working Americans and leaves health insurance corporations that make billions in profits each year untouched?

Unfortunately, the answer likely lies in money. Although people enrolled in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) make up roughly one-third of the U.S. population, they account for just 0.5% of all political campaign contributions — about $60 million annually. This disparity is likely driven by financial constraints: Many of these individuals are rightly focused on covering basic needs such as housing, food, and childcare, especially as wages have not kept pace with the rising cost of living.

In contrast, the health care sector — which includes major players like big insurance, pharmaceutical and hospital companiescontributed $357 million during the 2020 election cycle, including $97 million to outside groups such as Super PACs. These outside spending groups are largely funded by corporations and wealthy individuals, who represent less than 1% of the population but wield significant political influence.

Super PACs spent more than $2 billion during the 2020 election cycle, amplifying the voices of industry-aligned donors. This stark imbalance in political spending may help explain why congressional proposals targeted Medicaid recipients while leaving the powerful health insurance industry largely untouched.

It is not only Republicans who have failed to stop Big Insurance from taking advantage of federal health programs, Democrats declined to take action when negotiating their health care legislation during President Biden’s term. Rather, it seems to be a failure of policymakers of both parties to pass legislation that makes it clear to Big Insurance that our health care is not an investment opportunity for Wall Street, and the dollars we pay in taxes to support Medicare are not pocket change for executives to use for stock buybacks.

The failure to include MA reform represents a missed opportunity to prioritize patient care over corporate profits. However, the growing strength and voices of patients across the nation will ultimately make it impossible for lawmakers to ignore this issue much longer. With continued momentum, the fight to put patients over Big Insurance profits will succeed.

Big Shifts: CVS Is Pulling the Plug on ACA Coverage — And 1 Million Americans Will Pay the Price

In what’s becoming an all-too-familiar pattern, CVS Health announced it will pull Aetna out of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace in 2026, leaving about a million people across 17 states searching for new health coverage — and in some cases, fighting to afford any at all.

This marks yet another retreat by a major for-profit insurer from a program designed to provide affordable health coverage to Americans who don’t get it through work. CVS made the announcement while simultaneously celebrating a 60% increase in quarterly profit and revealing a new deal to boost sales of the pricey weight-loss drug Wegovy through its pharmacy and pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) arms.

Let me repeat that: Aetna is exiting the ACA because it claims it can’t make enough money on people enrolled in those plans, on the same day its parent company posted nearly $1.8 billion in profits in just the first three months of this year. 

This is the same company, by the way, that dumped hundreds of thousands of seniors and disabled people at the end of 2024 because some of them were using more medical care than Wall Street found acceptable. If this doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about who the health insurance industry is really working for, I don’t know what will.

From “Commitment” to Abandonment

Aetna first bailed on the ACA exchanges in 2018, then re-entered in 2022 when insurers could see more clearly how they could make significant profits on that book of business. Now, after just a few years of moderate participation, it’s heading for the exits again. CVS Health executives blamed “regulatory uncertainty” and “highly variable economic factors,” according to a statement to The Columbus Dispatch.

But make no mistake—this was a cold business calculation. Uncertainties and economic variabilities are constants in the insurance game.

CVS’ CEO David Joyner told investors:

“We are disappointed by the continued underperformance from our individual exchange products … this is not a decision we made lightly.”

That’s corporate-speak for “our Wall Street friends weren’t impressed.”

Aetna’s ACA exchange business, covering roughly 1 million people, is just a sliver of CVS’ overall medical membership of 27.1 million. But even though the profits weren’t massive, the people depending on this coverage — many of them self-employed, working multiple part-time jobs, or recently uninsured — will now be thrown into chaos.

And it’s happening at a time when health insurance for many Americans hangs by a thread. Unless Congress acts in the coming months, the ACA’s enhanced tax subsidies—first implemented under the American Rescue Plan—are set to expire at the end of this year. Without them, premiums could spike by 50% to 100% depending on income and geography.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the lapse in subsidies could leave 3.8 million more Americans uninsured — and now, 1 million more will be forced to find new plans as CVS/Aetna walks away.

Same Song: Prioritizing Profit, Not Patients

Let’s be clear about what CVS is doing here: It’s ditching an essential safety net for millions in order to chase higher profits elsewhere—most notably, in the exploding market for GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy. On the same day it abandoned the ACA, CVS announced a new deal to give Wegovy preferred placement on its PBM formulary, displacing Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. This will help CVS dominate the obesity drug market—and rake in profits through its Caremark PBM and nearly 9,000 retail pharmacies.

It’s a powerful example of vertical integration in action.

CVS owns the insurer (Aetna), the PBM (Caremark), and the pharmacy (CVS retail stores). When it walks away from lower-margin business like ACA plans and doubles down on high-dollar drug deals, we see its true priorities: selling expensive drugs, saddling individuals, families and employers with the costs, and keeping Wall Street happy.

Even worse, the decision is taking place against a troubling political backdrop. The Trump administration has already taken steps to undermine ACA infrastructure and expressed skepticism toward core public health programs. Cuts to navigator funding, changes to vaccine guidelines, and looming uncertainty around tax credits are all part of a slow-motion sabotage of the ACA. This is not to say that the ACA doesn’t have its flaws that need to be addressed.

But instead of penalizing hard-working Americans and their families, lawmakers and the Trump administration should focus instead on lowering the ridiculously high out-of-pocket maximum that the ACA established (and that keeps going up every year) and fixing the medical loss ratio provision that has fueled the vertical integration in the insurance industry.

The Costs of Insufficient Insurance Coverage

https://mailchi.mp/rooseveltinstitute/roosevelt-rundown-what-could-be-the-most-important-tax-case-of-the-century-9770494?e=c0285a8bc9

Whether they owe providers directly or carry the financial burden in long-term loans and credit card bills, an estimated 41 percent of Americans hold some form of medical debt.

“Medical debt is not inevitable. Rather, it is the product of decades of dysfunctional health-care policy, a market-oriented insurance system, and a patchwork of safety net programs with notable gaps,” writes Stephen Nuñez, Roosevelt’s director of stratification economics, in a new brief

Health-care policy permeates every stage of American life—whether it’s students applying for Medicaid, workers struggling to find insurance coverage between jobs, or the elderly signing up for Medicare—and the scale of the resulting debt crisis is massive. But these problems are also solvable.

“Biden administration efforts over the past several years have shown that our health-care system can be strengthened to extend insurance to millions more working-class people and help millions more upgrade their insurance coverage with better plans, at incrementally small costs,” Nuñez explains. “But the Trump administration is now poised not only to undo these steps but to enact savage cuts to federal health-care spending that will supercharge the medical debt crisis and together leave millions of people, disproportionately Black and Hispanic, uninsured and underinsured.”

Ultimately, a crisis created by policy choices must also be solved by policy choices:

  • In 2025, Congress should protect Medicaid and the American Rescue Plan tax credits.
  • In upcoming state legislative sessions, the 10 states withholding federal Medicaid funds from their residents should expand coverage as stipulated in the Affordable Care Act.
  • In the coming years, the federal government should implement a comprehensive plan to close the gaps in the American health insurance system.


Read the full brief: “The US Medical Debt Crisis: Catastrophic Costs of Insufficient Health Coverage

Millions could lose coverage under potential GOP Medicaid policies: CBO

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/medicaid-coverage-losses-gop-policies-cbo/747615/

Dive Brief:

  • Millions of people could lose coverage under potential policy changes to Medicaid under consideration by Republicans in Congress, according to a letter sent to lawmakers this week from the Congressional Budget Office. 
  • One option, reducing the federal government’s share of costs for enrollees covered under Medicaid expansion, would reduce the federal deficit by $710 billion over the next decade. But in 2034, 5.5 million people would be removed from the safety-net program, with 2.4 million of these enrollees becoming uninsured, according to the CBO.
  • Another potential policy, placing a per-enrollee cap on federal spending, would remove 5.8 million people from Medicaid. Nearly 3 million of those people would lose coverage entirely. The policy would reduce the deficit by $682 billion, the analysis found.

Dive Insight: 

Debates surrounding potential cuts to Medicaid — and their implications for patients and providers — have been heating up in Congress for weeks. 

Last month, lawmakers approved a budget resolution that called for the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicare and Medicaid, to find $880 billion in savings. That budget goal is likely impossible to hit without targeting major healthcare programs under the committee’s purview, according to an earlier analysis published in March by the CBO.

The committee is expected to meet next week to mark up its portion of the reconciliation package and hash out legislation.

However, cutting Medicaid is a politically contentious move for Republican lawmakers. Some legislators have pushed back on potential cuts, and others have argued they’ll preserve Medicaid for the most vulnerable by targeting fraud, waste and abuse in the safety-net insurance program. 

But Rep. Frank Pallone Jr., D-N.J., and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., who requested the latest CBO analysis, said the policies will ultimately limit benefits and result in coverage losses.

“This analysis from the non-partisan, independent CBO is straightforward: the Republican plan for health care means benefit cuts and terminated health insurance for millions of Americans who count on Medicaid,” Wyden said in a statement. “Republicans continue to use smoke and mirrors to try to trick Americans into thinking they aren’t going to hurt anybody when they proceed with this reckless plan, but fighting reality is an uphill battle.”

The letter from the CBO analyzes five potential policy options for Medicaid: setting the federal matching rate for the expansion population at the same rate as other enrollees; limiting state taxes on providers; setting federal caps on spending for the entire Medicaid population or just the expansion group; and repealing two regulations linked to eligibility and enrollment. 

Most of the options reduce the funds available to states, according to the CBO. The agency expects states will replace about half of the reduced support with their own resources, and then reduce spending by cutting provider payment rates, reducing optional benefits and cutting enrollment. 

For example, if Congress decides to limit provider taxes, where states levy taxes that finance a portion of their Medicaid spending, that would result in 8.6 million fewer people enrolled in Medicaid in 2034, including nearly 4 million becoming uninsured. The move would ultimately lessen the federal deficit by $668 billion, as the government would offer reimbursement for lower state spending, the analysis found.

Another option, placing a cap on federal spending for the expansion population, would save $225 billion — but 3.3 million people would lose Medicaid coverage. Repealing regulations that aim to reduce barriers to enrollment and simplify the renewal process would reduce the federal deficit by $162 billion over the next decade, but 2.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid, the CBO found.

Democrats urge Republicans to focus on Medicare Advantage upcoding instead of Medicaid cuts

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/democrats-urge-republicans-focus-medicare-advantage-upcoding/747627/

Dive Brief:

  • Democrat lawmakers are urging Republicans debating cuts to Medicaid to focus instead on fraud, waste and abuse in another federal healthcare program: Medicare Advantage.
  • Curbing upcoding in the privatized Medicare plans, wherein insurers exaggerate the health needs of their members to inflate government reimbursement, is a better avenue for saving federal dollars than restricting benefits or cutting eligibility in Medicaid, the 36 Democrats wrote in a letter to GOP leadership on Wednesday.
  • The letter was addressed to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and comes as Republicans debate different policies to reach savings targets.

Dive Insight:

Republicans in Congress are aiming to extend tax cuts from President Donald Trump’s first term. Their budget directs the House Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $880 billion in spending — a goal that’s impossible to reach without touching Medicaid, which (along with its sister program for children) provides safety-net insurance to some 80 million Americans.

Now, Democrats in both chambers are urging Republicans to redirect their attention from Medicaid to MA, privatized plans for Medicare seniors that can provide additional benefits but also restrict care in a way traditional Medicare is not allowed to do. Still, the plans have steadily grown in popularity and now cover more than half of the 68 million Americans in Medicare.

“Your directive to cut federal health care spending should come from reducing waste, fraud, and abuse like upcoding by for-profit insurance companies, not by cutting health care benefits for American families who rely on Medicaid to make ends meet,” the Democrats’ letter reads.

The letter cites a Wall Street Journal investigation into upcoding published last year that found MA insurers frequently added diagnoses for their members for which their members never received treatment or that went against doctors’ observations. The practice drove a total of $50 billion in additional payments to the private insurers over three years, according to the investigation.

Similarly, influential congressional advisory group MedPAC found CMS paid MA insurers $84 billion more in 2024 than the government would have if those members had been in traditional Medicare. Upcoding was responsible for almost half of those overpayments.

Traditionally, Republicans broadly support MA, which was created on the premise that private insurers could help the government manage Medicare more economically. However, there’s been rising bipartisan support for reforming the program in light of growing evidence of practices like upcoding that inflate government reimbursement to plans without helping enrollees.

In his confirmation hearing, Dr. Mehmet Oz, the surgeon and television personality tapped by Trump as the administrator of the CMS, agreed that tackling fraud, waste and abuse in MA was a “rational” way of lowering federal healthcare spending.

“We’re actually apparently paying more for Medicare Advantage than we’re paying for regular Medicare. So it’s upside down,” Oz said in front of the Senate Finance Committee in March.

Republicans in the House are currently trying to figure out how to achieve desired savings without slashing Medicaid, given the program’s political popularity, including among Republican voters.

GOP leadership recently appeared to rule out two Medicaid policies that would cause significant upheaval for enrollees in the program: lowering the portion of Medicaid costs borne by the federal government for the Medicaid expansion population, and per-capita caps on benefits for beneficiaries in expansion states.

More moderate policies Republicans are considering include requirements tying eligibility to work, education or volunteering hours or curbing financing arrangements that allow states to draw more funds from the federal government. Policies on the table would still result in millions of Americans losing Medicaid coverage.

“Moving forward with this dangerous plan to rip health care away from low- and middle-income Americans would be a man-made disaster for the health of the nation and the economy,” the Democrats’ letter reads. “We urge you instead to listen to Administrator Oz and tackle real fraud, waste, and abuse by private, for-profit health insurers in MA.”

House E&C is expected to hold its reconciliation markup next week.

Medicare Scramble: Wall Street Wants Insurers to Dump Costly Seniors

Wall Street is speaking loudly to Medicare Advantage insurers: If you want us to stick with you, keep dumping seniors who are pinching your profit margins. 

Investors continue to punish UnitedHealth Group since the company downgraded its 2025 profit expectations on April 17. On Friday, UnitedHealth’s stock price hit not only a 52-week low—$393.11—but its lowest point in years. The last time UnitedHealth’s stock price went below $400 a share was on October 14, 2021. 

The company’s shares lost nearly 4.5% of their value during the past week, contributing to a decline that started soon after the company set an all-time high of $630.73 last November. UnitedHealth’s shares have lost more than 33% of their value since then. 

Wall Street Sends a Message

Meanwhile, investors have once again embraced UnitedHealth’s top two rivals in the Medicare Advantage business–Humana and CVS/Aetna. Those companies told investors last year, when both were in the Wall Street dog house for spending more than investors expected on patients’ medical care, that they would dump hundreds of thousands of their costliest Medicare Advantage enrollees to improve their profits. They made good on that promise, shedding almost 650,000 seniors and people with disabilities by the end of the year. 

Many of those people enrolled in a UnitedHealth Medicare Advantage plan. The company reported 400,000 more Medicare Advantage enrollees in the first quarter of 2025 than in the fourth quarter of 2024. That used to be a good thing, but UnitedHealth’s executives told investors on April 17 that it wouldn’t make as much money for them as the company had assured them just three months earlier because it likely will have to spend more than they expected on those new MA enrollees’ medical care. Investors responded by immediately dispatching the company’s shares to the cellar. Those shares lost about 23% of their value in a single day.

The Street had also punished Humana and CVS last year when they said they were paying more for seniors’ medical care than they’d expected. Shares of both companies cratered, losing around half their value. So, executives at both Humana and CVS started identifying Medicare markets to get out of entirely. The culling was ruthless. CVS shed 227,000 MA enrollees. Humana got rid of 419,000.

Locked Out of Traditional Medicare

Those seniors and disabled people had to scramble to find a new Medicare Advantage insurer because it is difficult for most people to go back to traditional Medicare and find an affordable Medicare supplement policy. Medicare supplement insurers must waive underwriting during the first six months of applicants’ eligibility for Medicare, but people who enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan and want or need to make a change months later find out that insurers will charge them more unless their health is nearly perfect. 

Of the seven big for-profit health insurers, four (Cigna, CVS/Aetna, Humana and Centene) collectively cut 1.3 million of their Medicare Advantage enrollees adrift at the end of 2024 in an effort to stay in Wall Street’s good graces. Cigna dumped all 600,000 of its MA enrollees, selling them to the Blue Cross corporation HCSC. For-profit Blue Cross insurer Elevance picked up 227,000; Molina added 18,000, and, as noted, UnitedHealth signed up 400,000 new MA enrollees. 

While UnitedHealth’s shares have lost a third of their value, CVS’s shares have increased more than 50%  since the first of this year. They even set a 52-week high of $72.51 on Thursday. Humana’s shares closed Friday at $258.48, up 1.88% since January 1. They are out of the Wall Street dog house – for now, anyway. 

Profits, Lobbying Soar

I trust you are not feeling sorry for UnitedHealth because of its misfortune on Wall Street. It is still a hugely profitable company–just not profitable enough lately to please investors. This huge corporation, the fourth largest in America, reported $9.1 billion in profits in just the first quarter of this year. If the company makes it more difficult for its health plan enrollees to get the care they need this year, it could make even more than the $34.4 billion in profits it made last year

And as a group, the seven big for-profits, including those that spent more than Wall Street felt was necessary on patients’ medical care, made $70 billion in profits last year. (UnitedHealth made nearly as much as the other six combined.)

And collectively, those giant corporations took in a record $1.5 trillion in revenue from us as customers and taxpayers last year. They are doing quite well. But that won’t stop them from trying to keep lawmakers and Trump administration officials from cracking down this year on the widespread waste, fraud and abuse in the Medicare Advantage program. You can expect them to spend a record amount of our money on lobbying expenses in Washington this year to keep their Medicare Advantage cash cow well fed. 

Medicare Scramble: Wall Street Wants Insurers to Dump Costly Seniors

Wall Street is speaking loudly to Medicare Advantage insurers: If you want us to stick with you, keep dumping seniors who are pinching your profit margins. 

Investors continue to punish UnitedHealth Group since the company downgraded its 2025 profit expectations on April 17. On Friday, UnitedHealth’s stock price hit not only a 52-week low—$393.11—but its lowest point in years. The last time UnitedHealth’s stock price went below $400 a share was on October 14, 2021. 

The company’s shares lost nearly 4.5% of their value during the past week, contributing to a decline that started soon after the company set an all-time high of $630.73 last November. UnitedHealth’s shares have lost more than 33% of their value since then. 

Wall Street Sends a Message

Meanwhile, investors have once again embraced UnitedHealth’s top two rivals in the Medicare Advantage business–Humana and CVS/Aetna. Those companies told investors last year, when both were in the Wall Street dog house for spending more than investors expected on patients’ medical care, that they would dump hundreds of thousands of their costliest Medicare Advantage enrollees to improve their profits. They made good on that promise, shedding almost 650,000 seniors and people with disabilities by the end of the year. 

Many of those people enrolled in a UnitedHealth Medicare Advantage plan. The company reported 400,000 more Medicare Advantage enrollees in the first quarter of 2025 than in the fourth quarter of 2024. That used to be a good thing, but UnitedHealth’s executives told investors on April 17 that it wouldn’t make as much money for them as the company had assured them just three months earlier because it likely will have to spend more than they expected on those new MA enrollees’ medical care. Investors responded by immediately dispatching the company’s shares to the cellar. Those shares lost about 23% of their value in a single day.

The Street had also punished Humana and CVS last year when they said they were paying more for seniors’ medical care than they’d expected. Shares of both companies cratered, losing around half their value. So, executives at both Humana and CVS started identifying Medicare markets to get out of entirely. The culling was ruthless. CVS shed 227,000 MA enrollees. Humana got rid of 419,000.

Locked Out of Traditional Medicare

Those seniors and disabled people had to scramble to find a new Medicare Advantage insurer because it is difficult for most people to go back to traditional Medicare and find an affordable Medicare supplement policy. Medicare supplement insurers must waive underwriting during the first six months of applicants’ eligibility for Medicare, but people who enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan and want or need to make a change months later find out that insurers will charge them more unless their health is nearly perfect. 

Of the seven big for-profit health insurers, four (Cigna, CVS/Aetna, Humana and Centene) collectively cut 1.3 million of their Medicare Advantage enrollees adrift at the end of 2024 in an effort to stay in Wall Street’s good graces. Cigna dumped all 600,000 of its MA enrollees, selling them to the Blue Cross corporation HCSC. For-profit Blue Cross insurer Elevance picked up 227,000; Molina added 18,000, and, as noted, UnitedHealth signed up 400,000 new MA enrollees. 

While UnitedHealth’s shares have lost a third of their value, CVS’s shares have increased more than 50%  since the first of this year. They even set a 52-week high of $72.51 on Thursday. Humana’s shares closed Friday at $258.48, up 1.88% since January 1. They are out of the Wall Street dog house – for now, anyway. 

Profits, Lobbying Soar

I trust you are not feeling sorry for UnitedHealth because of its misfortune on Wall Street. It is still a hugely profitable company–just not profitable enough lately to please investors. This huge corporation, the fourth largest in America, reported $9.1 billion in profits in just the first quarter of this year. If the company makes it more difficult for its health plan enrollees to get the care they need this year, it could make even more than the $34.4 billion in profits it made last year

And as a group, the seven big for-profits, including those that spent more than Wall Street felt was necessary on patients’ medical care, made $70 billion in profits last year. (UnitedHealth made nearly as much as the other six combined.)

And collectively, those giant corporations took in a record $1.5 trillion in revenue from us as customers and taxpayers last year. They are doing quite well. But that won’t stop them from trying to keep lawmakers and Trump administration officials from cracking down this year on the widespread waste, fraud and abuse in the Medicare Advantage program. You can expect them to spend a record amount of our money on lobbying expenses in Washington this year to keep their Medicare Advantage cash cow well fed. 

American Health Insurance Diddy

there’s an office in a building

and a person in a chair

and you paid for em both

though you may be unaware

you paid for the paper

you paid for the phone

you paid for everything they need

to deny u wut yer owed

there aint no u in united health

there aint no me in the company

there aint no us in the private trust

there’s hardly humans in humanity

no the procedure that yer needing

aint the cost effective route

and only two percent of people end up winnin a dispute

so if u get sick

pray to god for help

cause yer doctor’s gotta pray thru

united health

waay back in 70 and 7

mr richard t burke

started buyin hmo’s

puttin federal grants to work

made 50 billion buckaroos

last yr

the warren buffet of health

the jeff bezos of fear

now ceo’s come and go

and one jus went

the ingredients ya got

bake the cake ya get

but if u get sick

cross yer fingers fer luck

cus ole richard t burke

aint givin a fuck

commoditized health

monopolized fraud

“here’s the doctors we own”

“here’s the research we bought”

they own the pharmacies

and alotta the meds

they should start buying graves

to sell us when we’re all dead

there aint no u in united health

there aint no me in the company

there aint no us in the private trust

there’s hardly humans in humanity

there’s hardly humans in humanity