The Latest in the U.S. on the Coronavirus

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President Trump said at a Fox News town hall Tuesday that he would “love” to have the country “opened up, and just raring to go” by Easter, or April 12, despite warnings from public health officials that easing social distancing restrictions too soon could cause the number of coronavirus cases to skyrocket.

  • Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, then said at a coronavirus briefing Tuesday evening that President Trump’s target date of Easter to ease social distancing is “really very flexible.”
  • 2020 Democratic front-runner Joe Biden harshly criticized the idea of lifting restrictions by Easter, saying on CNN that the president should “stop talking and start listening to the medical experts.”

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio told a news conference Tuesday he plans to release from Rikers Island some 300 nonviolent inmates who are over 70 years old as a measure against the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt reported three cases of sailors contracting COVID-19 Tuesday, Navy officials said at a briefing — marking the first U.S. sailors to test positive aboard a Navy ship while at sea.

A minor died from the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County, California, the county’s health department said Tuesday, although it later said that “there may be an alternate explanation” for the death of a California teenager whose “early tests indicated a positive result for COVID-19.”

The trade groups representing hospitals, doctors and nurses called on the public today to stay at home to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.

Up to 5,000 students will be allowed to return to Liberty University’s campus this week, as the Lynchburg, Virginia, college bucks the national trend of school closures.

 

 

 

America’s Wuhan: New York

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New York’s fight against the novel coronavirus is also the nation’s fight, as the state — and the city in particular — emerges with “astronomical numbers” of cases, to quote Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Why it matters: The Empire State has 5% of the world’s COVID-19 cases and about 50% of the nation’s. Its success — or failure — in fighting the virus, safeguarding citizens and treating the afflicted will tell us a lot about what can succeed in the rest of the U.S.

It’s a national travel hub, so it could be the catalyst for outbreaks elsewhere.

Cuomo is trying to shut the state down and stop the spread.

  • He is using his public mic as a blunt instrument to crush happy talk about quick ends or easy fixes.

A pivotal moment: Cuomo spoke passionately at a press conference Tuesday about the importance of devoting all resources to New York’s rapidly escalating caseload.

  • “We are the canary in the coal mine,” he said. “New York is going first. We have the highest and the fastest rate of infection.”

Later in the day, at a media briefing by the White House coronavirus task force, the White House advised people who had recently left New York City to self-quarantine for 14 days.

  • Asked if he had given Cuomo a “heads up” about this advice, Trump said, “We’re talking to them about it.”

By the numbers: New York has 25,000 cases of the novel coronavirus, vs. 2,800 in California, 2,200 in Washington state and 1,200 in Florida, Cuomo said.

  • The apex of the epidemic in New York isn’t expected for 14 to 21 days.
  • The state had 53,000 hospital beds pre-crisis and now expects to need 140,000.
  • New York City accounts for more than half the state’s cases: Nearly 16,000 people have been diagnosed and at least 125 people have died.
  • The first COVID-19 death in the state happened just under two weeks ago, in Brooklyn.

New York is throwing everything against the wall. Not only have residents been told to stay home whenever possible — and schools and most retail stores are closed — but the state is also trying experimental treatments and testing far more people for the virus than other places in the U.S.

  • Ventilator tubes are being split in half to accommodate two patients at once.
  • “We’re also trying all the new drug therapies — the hydroxychloroquine … we’re actually starting that today,” Cuomo said Tuesday.
  • In terms of protective gear and other relevant equipment, “We have acquired everything on the market that there is to acquire.”
  • The National Guard has been called in, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is turning empty hotels and dormitories — and other huge facilities — into hospital rooms.

“What happens in New York, we can expect to see in other cities around the world, but maybe not at the same scale,” Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at City University of New York’s school of public health, told Axios.

Be smart: Population density, which a New York Times headline called a “trait defining New York life,” is the reason the Big Apple has become the U.S. focal point.

  • On the NYC subway — where 23 employees have tested positive — reduced service (due to budget constraints and workers calling in sick) has straphangers riding cheek-by-jowl.
  • Of the 5 boroughs, Queens — a magnet for immigrants, with lots of packed apartment buildings — has the highest number of cases.

As the densest city in the country, “New York is really a testing ground” for ways to fight the coronavirus, Tomas Hoyos, co-founder of Voro, an online social network where people share recommendations for doctors, told Axios.

  • “To the extent that you can apply elsewhere the lessons you learn from the most difficult place to contain COVID-19, you’re going to be in a good spot,” he said.
  • The flip side? New York also has more resources and commands more attention than other places that haven’t (yet) been hit as hard.

My thought bubble: As a born-and-bred New Yorker who watched from my office window as the second plane hit the Twin Towers on 9/11, I find eerie similarities between the empty streets I see this week — and the constant wail of emergency sirens — and the days after the terror attacks.

  • A key difference: Social distancing has us pulling away from one another, not coming together for comfort.

 

 

 

 

America’s incomplete coronavirus shutdown

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If President Trump follows through on his statements that he wants to “open” the U.S. up again, an already patchwork shield of state “stay at home” orders could look like even more of a patchwork, Axios’ David Nather reports.

The big picture: Just 17 states have ordered people to stay at home, and most of those are states with Democratic governors. Only Ohio, Indiana, Massachusetts and West Virginia have Republican governors.

  • If Trump declares it’s time to start getting back to normal, those GOP governors could face pressure to start easing their own social restrictions, too.
  • That doesn’t mean they’ll do it, but the political pressure will intensify every time Trump talks about the importance of restarting the economy. And it could become even less likely that other Republican governors will impose stay-at-home orders of their own.

Between the lines: Some Republican governors, like Greg Abbott of Texas, have resisted calls to issue statewide stay-at-home orders, leaving it to cities and counties to issue their own restrictions.

  • Not all Democratic governors have ordered statewide restrictions, either. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, for example, issued a stay-at-home order for people in the hardest-hit areas, but not for the whole state.
  • There are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors — and seven Republicans are up for re-election, compared to four Democrats.

The bottom line: The “mitigation strategy” of social distancing urged by health experts has been uneven throughout the U.S. — and it’s likely to get more uneven.

 

 

 

 

We keep underestimating the coronavirus

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Image result for axios We keep underestimating the coronavirus

The U.S. keeps reacting too late to the novel coronavirus, prolonging its economic pain and multiplying its toll on Americans’ health.

Why it matters: The spread and impact of the coronavirus may be unfathomable, but it’s not unpredictable. And yet the U.S. has failed to respond accordingly over and over again.

First, it happened with testing — a delay that allowed the virus to spread undetected.

  • Then we were caught flat-footed by the surge in demand for medical supplies in emerging hotspots.
  • And the Trump administration declined to issue a national shelter-in-place order. The resulting patchwork across the country left enough economic hubs closed to crash the economy, but enough places up and running to allow the virus to continue to spread rampantly.

Between the lines: Proactive containment and mitigation steps would have required extraordinary political and economic capital, especially if they had come early in the process, when many Americans didn’t grasp the full weight of this challenge.

  • But making decisions based on today’s information — without an understanding of how much worse tomorrow will be — is also politically and economically risky, and carries the extra cost of more deaths.

Now, even as testing and hospital capacity remain limited, President Trump is eager for an economic recovery — even though, by all estimates, the outbreak is only going to get worse.

The bottom line: When I asked one senior Health and Human Services official how all of this keeps happening, the official said it’s at least partially due to disconnects — between Trump and his administration; between the government and the private sector, and between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

  • “At the end of the day, the virus has slipped through all those cracks that exist between all of these entities,” the official said.

 

 

 

 

 

The Huge Coronavirus Gamble

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President Trump is eager to ease off of stringent coronavirus mitigation steps “soon,” he said yesterday, but that would have a calamitous impact on Americans’ health — and it’s not clear how much it would help the economy, either.

Why it matters: For now, the only way to avoid large numbers of deaths is to keep people away from each other to stop the virus’ spread. And as long as the coronavirus is spreading, it’s likely to hurt the economy.

Driving the news: “This is a medical problem. We are not going to let it turn into a long-lasting financial problem,” Trump said in a press conference yesterday.

Between the lines: Missing from Trump’s rhetoric is any real acknowledgement that the situation is going to get worse in the near term.

“A policy of returning people to work too soon should be called the ‘let old people die already’ policy, a former Trump administration official told me.

  • If Trump decides to release the brakes in a week — and if states follow suit — the number of coronavirus cases would likely skyrocket far beyond anything the health care system can handle.

The big picture: The number of confirmed U.S. cases is still rising at an alarming rate — and that’s not counting the thousands who have it but are unable to get tested.

  • That number is expected to continue to rise.

Reality check: The choice between saving lives and saving the economy may not even be a real one.

  • If the virus’ continued spread causes people to still be concerned for their health, and they don’t start spending money again in droves, then service workers may be putting their health back on the line for weak demand and a lackluster rebound.