Here’s how hospitals can chart a path to a sustainable financial future (Part 2: Hospital of the Future series)

Radio Advisory’s Rachel Woods sat down with Optum EVP Dr. Jim Bonnette to discuss the sustainability of modern-day hospitals and why scaling down might be the best strategy for a stable future.

Read a lightly edited excerpt from the interview below and download the episode for the full conversation.https://player.fireside.fm/v2/HO0EUJAe+Rv1LmkWo?theme=dark

Rachel Woods: When I talk about hospitals of the future, I think it’s very easy for folks to think about something that feels very futuristic, the Jetsons, Star Trek, pick your example here. But you have a very different take when it comes to the hospital, the future, and it’s one that’s perhaps a lot more streamlined than even the hospitals that we have today. Why is that your take?

Jim Bonnette: My concern about hospital future is that when people think about the technology side of it, they forget that there’s no technology that I can name that has lowered health care costs that’s been implemented in a hospital. Everything I can think of has increased costs and I don’t think that’s sustainable for the future.

And so looking at how hospitals have to function, I think the things that hospitals do that should no longer be in the hospital need to move out and they need to move out now. I think that there are a large number of procedures that could safely and easily be done in a lower cost setting, in an ASC for example, that is still done in hospitals because we still pay for them that way. I’m not sure that’s going to continue.

Woods: And to be honest, we’ve talked about that shift, I think about the outpatient shift. We’ve been talking about that for several years but you just said the change needs to happen now. Why is the impetus for this change very different today than maybe it was two, three, four, five years ago? Why is this change going to be frankly forced upon hospitals in the very near future, if not already?

Bonnette: Part of the explanation is regarding the issues that have been pushed regarding price transparency. So if employers can see the difference between the charges for an ASC and an HOPD department, which are often quite dramatic, they’re going to be looking to say to their brokers, “Well, what’s the network that involves ASCs and not hospitals?” And that data hasn’t been so easily available in the past, and I think economic times are different now.

We’re not in a hyper growth phase, we’re not where the economy’s performing super at the moment and if interest rates keep going up, things are going to slow down more. So I think employers are going to become more sensitized to prices that they haven’t been in the past. Regardless of the requirements under the Consolidated Appropriations Act, which require employers to know the costs, which they didn’t have to know before. They’re just going to more sensitive to price.

Woods: I completely agree with you by the way, that employers are a key catalyst here and we’ve certainly seen a few very active employers and some that are very passive and I too am interested to see what role they play or do they all take much more of an active role.

And I think some people would be surprised that it’s not necessarily consumers themselves that are the big catalyst for change on where they’re going to get care, how they want to receive care. It’s the employers that are going to be making those decisions as purchasers themselves.

Bonnette: I agree and they’re the ultimate payers. For most commercial insurance employers are the ultimate payers, not the insurance companies. And it’s a cost of care share for patients, but the majority of the money comes from the employers. So it’s basically cutting into their profits.

Woods: We are on the same page, but I’m going to be honest, I’m not sure that all of our listeners are right. We’re talking about why these changes could happen soon, but when I have conversations with folks, they still think about a future of a more consolidated hospital, a more outpatient focused practice is something that is coming but is still far enough in the future that there’s some time to prepare for.

I guess my question is what do you say to that pushback? And are there any inflection points that you’re watching for that would really need to hit for this kind of change to hit all hospitals, to be something that we see across the industry?

Bonnette: So when I look at hospitals in general, I don’t see them as much different than they were 20 years ago. We have talked about this movement for a long time, but hospitals are dragging their feet and realistically it’s because they still get paid the same way until we start thinking about how we pay differently or refuse to pay for certain kinds of things in a hospital setting, the inertia is such that they’re going to keep doing it.

Again, I think the push from employers and most likely the brokers are going to force this change sooner rather than later, but that’s still probably between three and five years because there’s so much inertia in health care.

On the other hand, we are hitting sort of an unsustainable phase of cost. The other thing that people don’t talk about very much that I think is important is there’s only so many dollars that are going to health care.

And if you look at the last 10 years, the growth in pharmaceutical spend has to eat into the dollars available for everybody else. So a pharmaceutical spend is growing much faster than anything else, the dollars are going to come out of somebody’s hide and then next logical target is the hospital.

Woods: And we talked last week about how slim hospital margins are, how many of them are actually negative. And what we didn’t mention that is top of mind for me after we just come out of this election is that there’s actually not a lot of appetite for the government to step in and shore up hospitals.

There’s a lot of feeling that they’ve done their due diligence, they stepped in when they needed to at the beginning of the Covid crisis and they shouldn’t need to again. That kind of savior is probably not their outside of very specific circumstances.

Bonnette: I agree. I think it’s highly unlikely that the government is going to step in to rescue hospitals. And part of that comes from the perception about pricing, which I’m sure Congress gets lots of complaints about the prices from hospitals.

And in addition, you’ll notice that the for-profit hospitals don’t have negative margins. They may not be quite as good as they were before, but they’re not negative, which tells me there’s an operational inefficiency in the not for-profit hospitals that doesn’t exist in the for-profits.

Woods: This is where I wanted to go next. So let’s say that a hospital, a health system decides the new path forward is to become smaller, to become cheaper, to become more streamlined, and to decide what specifically needs to happen in the hospital versus elsewhere in our organization.

Maybe I know where you’re going next, but do you have an example of an organization who has had this success already that we can learn from?

Bonnette: Not in the not-for-profit section, no. In the for-profits, yes, because they have already started moving into ambulatory surgery centers. So Tenet has a huge practice of ambulatory surgery centers. It generates high margins.

So, I used to run ambulatory surgery centers in a for-profit system. And so think about ASCs get paid half as much as a hospital for a procedure, and my margin on that business in those ASCs was 40% to 50%. Whereas in the hospital the margin was about 7% and so even though the total dollars were less, my margin was higher because it’s so much more efficient. And the for-profits already recognize this.

Woods: And I’m guessing you’re going to tell me you want to see not-for-profit hospitals make these moves too? Or is there a different move that they should be making?

Bonnette: No, I think they have to. I think there are things beyond just ASCs though, for example, medical patients who can be treated at home should not be in the hospital. Most not-for-profits lose money on every medical admission.

Now, when I worked for a for-profit, I didn’t lose money on every Medicare patient that was a medical patient. We had a 7% margin so it’s doable. Again, it’s efficiency of care delivery and it’s attention to detail, which sometimes in a not-for-profit friends, that just doesn’t happen.

Medicare and Private Insurance Health Care Prices Diverge Substantially in 2022

https://mailchi.mp/altarum/medicare-and-private-insurance-health-care-prices-diverge-substantially-in-2022?e=b4c24e7e20

From the spring of 2021 through June of this year, the U.S. has been in a period of high and rising economywide price inflation. Pressures such as labor scarcities, global energy interruptions, and supply chain disruptions have made everything from consumer goods to business services more expensive. Yet, in our ongoing series of Health Sector Economic Indicators (HSEI) briefs, we have been detailing data that find, quite surprisingly, overall inflation for the health care sector—as measured by the aggregate Health Care Price Index (HCPI)—has remained in a very tight and modest range, rarely exceeding three percent year-over-year growth or falling beneath two percent growth. In our monthly briefs, we have explored how factors such as the time it takes for new contracts and reimbursement rates to take effect and recent policy changes restraining public health care costs have kept overall health care inflation well below economywide rates. As these factors continue to play out, the recently-released July price data are revealing what may be a key inflection point in Medicare and private insurance prices for health care services. 

In July, the prices paid for many types of health care from these two major payer types diverged substantially. Medicare prices fell by nearly a full percentage point, putting overall Medicare services prices below the levels seen back in January 2021 (Exhibit 1). These declining Medicare prices are due to two major factors: very low or no increases in the statutory reimbursement rates for hospital care and physician services in the calendar year 2022 and the re-institution of the mandated sequestration cuts for Medicare provider payments in April and July of this year. These sequestration cuts, which had been postponed for many years since they were updated in 2011, are having a meaningful impact as seen in the chart below (click on link above). The impact of the two sequestration cuts can be seen clearly in the data, pulling down Medicare prices between March and April and then between June and July across all three major settings of care as first a 1% and then a 2% cut were put in place. Due to the fact that physician services received relatively smaller baseline increases in new Medicare rates for 2022, the sequestration cuts have pulled those price levels the lowest, down by 2.2% since January 2021. Medicare price changes for nursing homes care fall in between hospitals and physician services, down by 1.0% since January 2021.  

At the same time Medicare prices are falling, the prices for similar types of care paid by private insurance increased substantially in July, up a full percentage point from the previous month and 5.4% higher than the price levels in January 2021 (Exhibit 2). We believe many of these increases are occurring as new contracts or updated rates are slowly taking effect, and further expect there may be a noticeable discrete jump in private prices beginning in 2023, as recent comments from providers and insurers are stating 2023 negotiations are generally favoring providers. We can see in the data that it appears hospitals are experiencing much higher private price growth than other components (up 7.2% since January 2021) and faster recent growth, with price levels increasing by nearly a full percentage point in each of the past three months. Physician services are the next fastest growing component, while nursing home private prices have barely moved since the beginning of 2021. Faster increases in hospital prices may indicate stronger negotiating positions for those providers, particularly given ongoing consolidation in the industry over the past ten years.  

When looking at the HCPI in aggregate, these two diverging trends have been cancelling out, leading to overall moderate growth in health care prices. Yet, these detailed, by-payer data indicate that significant trends in health care prices are occurring underneath, with the long-expected increases in private prices beginning to follow overall economywide inflation trends. All else equal, these price increases in care paid by private insurance will further exacerbate an already wide gap between public and private prices. This is especially true for hospital care, where the disparity between Medicare and private prices diverged by a whopping 7.2 percentage points in the last eighteen months. The most important factors driving the trends going forward for private prices will be the extent to which overall economywide inflation slows and who has the balance of power in insurer/provider contract negotiations. For public prices, government policy decisions will continue to be most important influencer of their growth. We expect to follow all these factors and the overall impact of the diverging data on overall health sector inflation in our ongoing series of HSEI briefs through the rest of the year and into 2023.  

RAND: Private plans paid hospitals 224% more than Medicare rates

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/rand-study-finds-private-plans-paid-hospitals-224-more-compared-medicare-rates

Private insurance plans paid hospitals on average 224% more compared with Medicare rates for both inpatient and outpatient services in 2020, a new study found. 

Researchers at RAND Corporation looked at data from 4,000 hospitals in 49 states from 2018 to 2020. While the 224% increase in rates is high, it is a slight reduction from the 247% reported in 2018 in the last study RAND performed. 

“This reduction is a result of a substantial increase in the volume of claims in the analysis from states with prices below the previous average price,” the study said. 

The report showed that plans in certain states wound up paying hospitals more than others. It found that Florida, West Virginia and South Carolina had prices that were at or even higher than 310% of Medicare

But other states like Hawaii, Arkansas and Washington paid less than 175% of Medicare rates. 

“Employers can use this report to become better-informed purchasers of health benefits,” study lead author Christopher Waley said in a statement. “The work also highlights the levels and variation in hospital prices paid by employers and private insurers, and thus may help policymakers who may be looking for strategies to curb healthcare spending.”

The data come as the federal government has explored ways to lower healthcare costs, including going toe-to-toe with the hospital industry. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has in recent years sought to cut payments to off-campus outpatient clinics in order to bring Medicare payments in line with payments paid to physicians’ offices but has met with stiff legal and lobbying opposition from the hospital industry that argues the extra payments are needed.

CMS has also published regulations that call on hospitals to increase transparency of prices, including a rule that mandates hospitals publish online the prices for roughly 300 shoppable services.

The hospital industry pushed back against RAND’s findings, arguing that the study is based on incomplete data. The industry group American Hospital Association said researchers only looked at 2.2% of overall hospital spending, a small portion of overall expenses.

“Researchers should expect variation in the cost of delivering services across the wide range of U.S. hospitals – from rural critical access hospitals to large academic medical centers,” said AHA CEO Rick Pollack in a statement to Fierce Healthcare. “Tellingly, when RAND added more claims as compared to previous versions of this report, the average price for hospital services declined.”