What Are the Implications of Repealing the Affordable Care Act for Medicare Spending and Beneficiaries?

What Are the Implications of Repealing the Affordable Care Act for Medicare Spending and Beneficiaries?

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The 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) included many provisions affecting the Medicare program and the 57 million seniors and people with disabilities who rely on Medicare for their health insurance coverage. Such provisions include reductions in the growth in Medicare payments to hospitals and other health care providers and to Medicare Advantage plans, benefit improvements, payment and delivery system reforms, higher premiums for higher-income beneficiaries, and new revenues.

President-elect Donald Trump, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary-nominee and current House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price, and many other Republicans in Congress have proposed to repeal and replace the ACA, but lawmakers have taken different approaches to the ACA’s Medicare provisions. For example, the House Budget Resolution for Fiscal Year 2017, introduced by Chairman Price in March 2016, proposed a full repeal of the ACA. The House Republican plan, “A Better Way,” introduced by Speaker Ryan in June 2016, proposed to repeal some, but not all, of the ACA’s Medicare provisions.

This brief explores the implications for Medicare and beneficiaries of repealing Medicare provisions in the ACA. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that full repeal of the ACA would increase Medicare spending by $802 billion from 2016 to 2025.1 Full repeal would increase spending primarily by restoring higher payments to health care providers and Medicare Advantage plans. The increase in Medicare spending would likely lead to higher Medicare premiums, deductibles, and cost sharing for beneficiaries, and accelerate the insolvency of the Medicare Part A trust fund. Policymakers will confront decisions about the Medicare provisions in the ACA in their efforts to repeal and replace the law.

Pre-existing Conditions and Medical Underwriting in the Individual Insurance Market Prior to the ACA

Pre-existing Conditions and Medical Underwriting in the Individual Insurance Market Prior to the ACA

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Before private insurance market rules in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) took effect in 2014, health insurance sold in the individual market in most states was medically underwritten.1  That means insurers evaluated the health status, health history, and other risk factors of applicants to determine whether and under what terms to issue coverage. To what extent people with pre-existing health conditions are protected is likely to be a central issue in the debate over repealing and replacing the ACA.

This brief reviews medical underwriting practices by private insurers in the individual health insurance market prior to 2014, and estimates how many American adults could face difficulty obtaining private individual market insurance if the ACA were repealed or amended and such practices resumed.  We examine data from two large government surveys: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), both of which can be used to estimate rates of various health conditions (NHIS at the national level and BRFSS at the state level). We consulted field underwriting manuals used in the individual market prior to passage of the ACA as a reference for commonly declinable conditions.

Hospital groups: ACA repeal may cost billions, jobs

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/hospital-groups-aca-repeal-may-cost-billions-jobs/431786/

Click to access impact-repeal-aca-exec-summary.pdf

Click to access impact-repeal-aca-report.pdf

Members of the Republican party have been attempting to repeal the ACA ever since the healthcare law was implemented in 2010. In the proposed ACA repeal-and-replace plans currently available, such a replacement plan may not come for up to three years, Kahn said. In addition, there still doesn’t seem to be a unified front on what that replacement would actually entail.

President-elect Donald Trump has said he would make repealing and replacing the healthcare law a top priority. However, HHS Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burrell has warned that getting rid of the ACA could potentially have dire consequences, including the estimated 22 million people that could be left without health insurance coverage. In addition, current repeal-and-delay plans could widely change the already fragile individual insurance markets.

The hospital groups sent a letter to Trump and members of Congress to urge any repeal bill include a simultaneous mechanism for replacement coverage. “We strongly believe that any repeal legislation must be accompanied by provisions that protect the coverage for those currently receiving such protection,” the letter noted. What would be “absolutely essential” to include would be to restore the Medicare and Medicaid payment cuts so that hospitals can provide the care that communities “both respect and deserve,” according to Tom Nickels, executive vice president of government relations and public policy at the American Hospital Association.

Hospitals were under the impression that they would be getting more insured patients, so they reasoned that the Medicare and Medicaid payment cuts that came with the ACA implementation were not necessarily going to have a major impact, both AHA President and CEO Richard Pollack and Kahn noted on the media call. Yet the payment cuts to hospitals that date back to 1997 with the Balanced Budget Act have caused hospitals to “cut back staff, services, education, research, investments in new technology, and modernization, and upgrading of aging facilities,” the letter stated.

The losses that would come from ACA repeals as they have been proposed “cannot be sustained and would adversely impact patients’ access to care, decimate hospitals’ and health systems’ to provide services, weaken local economies that hospitals sustain and grow and result in massive job losses,” Nickels said on the media call.

One of the Dobson reports explains why the groups support using HR 3762 as a starting point. Even though the bill, which President Obama vetoed after it passed Congress, repeals ACA provisions that expand health insurance coverage and does not offer a replacement plan, it restores all ACA reductions in hospital payments that were supposed to help to finance the additional coverage, the report states.

21st Century Cures Act: 4 health industry impacts summarized

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/21st-century-cures-act-explained/431491/

On Wednesday, the Senate voted 94-5 to pass the long-awaited 21st Century Cures Bill. As it has backing from the current White House administration, President Barack Obama is expected to sign the legislation into law.

The law has been called the “most important bill of the year” by Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN), as Politico Pulse reported Tuesday. The bill, while bipartisan, is not without controversy. While the House version of the legislation passed swimmingly with a vote of 392-26, the bill did have its share of opponents in the Senate– including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) – who think the bill is too favorable to pharmaceutical companies. Both Sanders and Warren were among the five Senators to vote against the measure.

And as Modern Healthcare’s Merrill Goozner notes in an editorial, it’s likely the true impact of the bill won’t be known right away but will be realized as the years pass. “The final details of the 996-page legislation…weren’t known until five days before it passed,” Goozner wrote.

About three years of work and efforts from 1,400 lobbyists for 400 companies went into the making of this $6.3 billion package. It seeks to deliberately speed medical research and treatments. Because seemingly no healthcare legislation can be a reasonable length (it’s about 90 pages longer than the ACA) and because nothing in healthcare is simple, we’ve summarized some of the notable implications of the bill in four buckets: Health IT, mental health, FDA reform and research and care funding.

How will Trump change healthcare? 6 of the biggest questions answered

http://managedhealthcareexecutive.modernmedicine.com/managed-healthcare-executive/news/how-will-trump-affect-healthcare-6-biggest-questions-answered?cfcache=true&ampGUID=A13E56ED-9529-4BD1-98E9-318F5373C18F&rememberme=1&ts=02122016

Throughout his campaign and in the days following the election, President-elect Donald Trump said that one of his top priorities as the commander in chief would be to repeal and replace Obamacare, a major component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). By having a Republican president as well as the GOP holding a majority in Congress (which also support its repeal), it’s likely that this will occur, says Ashraf Shehata, MBA, advisory leader for health plans and partner of the firm’s Global Healthcare Center of Excellence, KPMG.

But how do you go about replacing Obamacare when 20 million Americans are now obtaining healthcare coverage from it?

Dental Care and Medicare Beneficiaries: Access Gaps, Cost Burdens, and Policy Options

http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/in-the-literature/2016/dec/dental-care-and-medicare-beneficiaries?omnicid=EALERT1137219&mid=henrykotula@yahoo.com

Synopsis

In 2012, more than half of Medicare beneficiaries reported they went without a dental visit in the past 12 months, with lower-income beneficiaries much less likely than higher-income ones to have received dental care. Overall, only 12 percent of beneficiaries reported having any kind of dental insurance. To expand access to care and reduce out-of-pocket exposure for older adults, the authors propose two policy options for adding dental benefits to Medicare’s benefit package.

The Issue

Despite evidence of a strong connection between oral health and physical health, Medicare explicitly excludes dental care from covered benefits. This leaves beneficiaries at risk for tooth decay and disease and exposed to high out-of-pocket costs. Moreover, the lack of regular preventive dental exams means missed opportunities for detecting the onset of certain diseases, including some cancers. A new Commonwealth Fund–supported study in Health Affairs looks at older adults’ access to dental care and their out-of-pocket expenses for dental services. The authors also suggest two policies for expanding dental care for seniors, along with cost estimates.

Key Findings on Use of Dental Services and Out-of-Pocket Spending

  • In 2012, less than half of all Medicare beneficiaries had any dental visits in the past 12 months.

    “Until dental care is appropriately considered to be part of one’s medical care, and financially covered as such, poor oral health will continue to be the ‘silent epidemic’ that impedes improving the quality of life for older adults.”

  • Use of services was sharply related to income. Only 26 percent of beneficiaries with incomes below 100 percent of the federal poverty level had a dental visit, compared with 73 percent of beneficiaries with incomes at or above 400 percent of poverty.
  • Only 12 percent of beneficiaries (6.6 million out of 56.1 million people) reported having at least some dental insurance to help pay bills. In contrast, around 80 percent of Americans under age 65 who were covered by employer-based health insurance had dental benefits.
  • Medicare beneficiaries reported spending an average of $427 on dental care in the past 12 months, of which $329 was spent out of pocket. About 7 percent of beneficiaries spent more than $1,500 in that period.

What happens when you don’t price-regulate drugs? Just look at the United States.

http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/11/30/12945756/prescription-drug-prices-explained

Americans aren’t buying lots more drugs. We’re just spending more on the ones we do buy.

There isn’t much evidence that Americans use an inordinately high amount of prescription drugs. It’s just that when we buy prescription medications, we pay more for the exact same product.

When Having Insurance Still Leaves You Dangerously Uncovered

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One of the few things that Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton seemed to agree on was that high out-of-pocket spending on health care was a problem. One of Mrs. Clinton’s most popular health care proposals during her campaign was to reduce out-of-pocket spending to more “manageable” levels for many Americans. President-elect Trump said he could fix this problem by repealing Obamacare and replacing it with something better.

As I’ve written before, while more Americans are insured, many are still underinsured — meaning that they are exposed to significant financial risk from out-of-pocket payments. Reducing out-of-pocket spending, however, will require some trade-offs. No easy solution exists, but there are examples out there worthy of consideration.

Before we can discuss any plan’s specifics, let’s look at exactly how the health care system extracts money from you. Plans differ in the amount of actuarial value they have. That’s the percentage of the cost of care that insurance will cover. If a plan has 60 percent actuarial value, then it covers 60 percent of your potential health care spending, and you cover 40 percent. Plans with higher actuarial value cost more. In the Affordable Care Act insurance exchanges, bronze plans have a 60 percent actuarial value. Silver plans have 70 percent, and gold plans 80 percent.

You pay up front for health insurance with a premium that is often charged monthly. But that’s not all the spending you’ll do. Almost all plans come with deductibles. This is an amount of money that you are responsible for paying for health care before insurance coverage kicks in. The reason plans have deductibles is that research shows you’re less likely to spend your money than the insurance company’s money. Plans with lower deductibles usually have higher premiums.

Even after you spend the deductible, you’re not done, though. Most plans come with co-pays. These are set fees that you have to pay each time you use the health care system. They may be $20 for a doctor’s visit, or $100 for an emergency room visit. Some plans use co-insurance instead. That’s when you pay for a percentage of your care instead of a set fee for each service.

The lower the actuarial value, the more you’re going to pay out of pocket in deductibles, co-pays or co-insurance. But plans on the Obamacare exchanges are all subject to an out-of-pocket maximum. In 2016, for a family, it was $13,700, and for an individual it was $6,850. Even the bronzest of bronze plans can’t ask you to pay any more, but they are more likely to let you hit the maximum.

That’s a lot of money. This is true even in the employer-based insurance market. In 2016, almost 30 percent of workers were enrolled in a high-deductible health care plan. More than half of employees with individual plans had deductibles of at least $1,000. Two-thirds of covered workers had co-pays, and 25 percent had co-insurance for primary care. Almost 20 percent of workers were in plans with an out-of-pocket maximum of $6,000 or more.

Mr. Trump offered no specific plans for reducing out-of-pocket spending. But that’s not surprising. It wasn’t that long ago that one of the most favored means by which conservatives proposed to bring down health care spending was to have consumers put more “skin in the game.” Many of them believed that if consumers were more exposed to health care spending, if they had to pay more out of pocket for care, then they would be more responsible consumers because of it.

In fact, calls have already begun for Mr. Trump to expose people to even more out-of-pocket spending. Right now, the Affordable Care Act has provisions that help reduce cost-sharing below the out-of-pocket maximum for those making less than 250 percent of the poverty line who purchase a silver-level plan. Those payments are made directly to health plans that cover those people.

It may be possible for the president to cut off those payments immediately, without any congressional involvement. If he were to do that, and it’s unlikely, it would either cripple those insurance companies, or they’d withdraw immediately from the exchanges, terminating coverage and leaving millions without health insurance overnight.

It’s also unlikely that the Trump administration would cover more people’s out-of-pocket payments with federal money. To argue suddenly that people should be shielded from the expense of health care would be a sea change for conservative health insurance design.

Major changes for Medicaid coming under Trump and the GOP

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/21/news/economy/medicaid-trump/index.html

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Donald Trump likely won’t let Medicaid collapse, but he will vastly change the health insurance program for low-income Americans.

Think less federal funding, more state control, fewer participants and higher costs for those in the program.

Here’s how Medicaid works now:

Nearly 73 million Americans are on Medicaid or the related Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). The programs cost $509 billion in fiscal 2015, with the federal government shouldering 62% of the bill and states paying 38%.

Most enrollees are low-income children, pregnant women, parents, the disabled and the elderly. Under Obamacare, low-income adults with incomes of up to 138% of the poverty line — $16,400 for a single person — were allowed to sign up in states that opted to expand their Medicaid programs. So far, 31 states, plus the District of Columbia, have done so, adding about 15.7 million more people to the rolls since late 2013, just before the provision took effect. (This figure includes both those newly eligible under expansion and those who always met the criteria.)

While Democrats say the program is a vital part of the safety net, Republicans have long criticized it as being bloated, inefficient and rife with fraud. They want to limit the federal government’s financial responsibility, while giving states more direct control over whom to enroll and what kind of coverage participants receive.

On the campaign trail, Trump was emphatic about having the government provide coverage to the poor, even as he vowed to dismantle Obamacare.

“You cannot let people die on the street, ok?,” he said at a CNN town hall in February. “The problem is that everybody thinks that you people, as Republicans, hate the concept of taking care of people that are really, really sick and are gonna die. We gotta take care of people that can’t take care of themselves.”