I’ve had two conversations this week with health system leaders who have been struggling to navigate conversations about direct contracting with large employers in their market. A system chief innovation officer expressed frustration about the pace of discussions with a regional employer: “They’re clearly interested in our network, and we’ve been designing a program for them. They’ve seen our performance results from our accountable care organization (ACO) and the savings we generated. But even after a year of meetings, I’m not sure it’s going anywhere.”
Direct-to-employer (DTE) contracting has proven much more difficult for health systems than anyone anticipated a decade ago, in the wake of highly publicized DTE contracts with Boeing and Intel. Most employers, even large ones, lack the sophistication and bandwidth to co-create DTE offerings with health systems.
But those two deals may have led health systems to mistake what employers are looking for in a relationship. Both Boeing and Intel keep their employees for decades, and are interested in solutions, like chronic disease management, that have a longer-term return on investment (think heart disease management for the 55-year-old engineer).
The average employer, on the other hand, keeps a worker for just a few years. They don’t have a “population health” problem: from a healthcare cost perspective, they won’t see an ROI from management of chronic conditions.
Their pressing healthcare cost problems result from high-cost events, like a premature baby in the NICU, an unexpected spine surgery or a new cancer diagnosis.
Most health system ACOs have been designed to manage the cost of aging Medicare beneficiaries with multiple chronic diseases via enhanced primary care—and are a mismatch for delivering what the average employer needs the most: high-cost episode management, behavioral health support, and ready, available, guaranteed access.
Striking successful DTE deals will require providers to augment their service offerings beyond traditional population health, and to demonstrate their success in managing the benefit costs of their own employees.
As we’ve discussed before, the greatest challenge facing health system economics is demographics. Simply put, with 80M Boomers entering their Medicare years, hospitals beds will fill with elderly patients receiving treatment for exacerbations of congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, or other chronic conditions, of which the average Medicare beneficiary has four. It’s easy to envision the hospital becoming a giant nursing facility, with the vast majority of beds occupied by Medicare patients receiving nursing care and drugs, only to be sent home until their chronic disease flares again and the cycle repeats, four or five times a year.
Health systems must create a new model for managing Medicare patients with multiple chronic conditions, one that does not rely on care delivered in an inpatient setting. In the graphic below, we outline two approaches for managing a Medicare patient with advanced CHF. The top path illustrates today’s legacy model, where limited support for ongoing care management leaves the patient vulnerable to exacerbations, leading to numerous ED visits and admissions for diuresis, after which the patient returns home to a sub-optimal diet and lifestyle and is likely to return.
A better alternative is illustrated in the second path. Here our CHF patient has access to the ongoing support of a care team, which regularly monitors her status from home with the help of remote monitoring and can communicate with the patient to adjust therapy if early symptoms are detected. At Gist, we’re working with clinicians to understand just how to build this system of care and maximize its impact.
One example: a leading heart failure specialist told us that admissions for CHF could be reduced by one-third if patients with severe heart failure were monitored with a CardioMEMS implantable device, which can detect changes in pressure before the patient has symptoms, allowing for very early intervention. Developing these kind of care approaches to manage chronic disease outside the hospital will be the key to sustainable health system economics—and may have the greatest impact on lowering the total cost of care for the growing Medicare population.
The Residences at Camelback West in Phoenix has 500 rental units ranging from studios to two-bedroom apartments, of which 100 are set aside for homeless UnitedHealth Medicaid members. Photo: Tiempo Development & Management
In the course of a single year, a homeless man named Steve in Phoenix, Arizona, visited the emergency room 81 times. Only 54 years old, Steve is coping with a daunting array of medical conditions: multiple sclerosis, cerebral palsy, heart disease, and diabetes. Because of his health and reliance on emergency rooms, his medical costs averaged about $13,000 per month that year.
Thanks to an innovative housing program run by the nation’s largest health insurer, UnitedHealth Group, Steve no longer sleeps outside — a crucial prerequisite to improved health. He is one of about 60 formerly homeless people covered by Arizona Medicaid who now receive housing and support services in Phoenix, John Tozzi reported for Bloomberg Businessweek. The UnitedHealth housing program, called myConnections, represents the growing recognition across the health care system that improved health cannot be achieved exclusively by traditional clinical models. Getting patients off the streets is often the first — and most important — step to helping them heal, physically and mentally.
“Patients like Steve wind up in the ER because they don’t fit into the ways we deliver health care. . . . [The US system] is not set up to keep vulnerable people housed, clothed, and nourished so they’ll be less likely to get sick in the first place. —John Tozzi, Bloomberg News
“Patients like Steve wind up in the ER because they don’t fit into the ways we deliver health care,” Tozzi explained. “The US system is engineered to route billions of dollars to hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, and labs to diagnose and treat patients once they’re sick. It’s not set up to keep vulnerable people housed, clothed, and nourished so they’ll be less likely to get sick in the first place.”
MyConnections was the brainchild of a partnership between UnitedHealthcare (a division of UnitedHealth) and the Camden Coalition, a New Jersey–based nonprofit dedicated to improving care for people with complex health and social needs. The partnership was established in 2017 at the same time Jeffrey Brenner, MD, founder and executive director of the Camden Coalition, announced he was leaving the nonprofit to lead myConnections. He is now UnitedHealthcare’s senior vice president for integrated health and human services. UnitedHealthcare provides managed care to about six million people nationwide, according to company filings. It does not get reimbursed by Medicaid for housing assistance.
Making the Case for Addressing Social Determinants
Brenner hopes myConnections will show that both a health care and a business case can be made for investing in a Housing First (PDF) model. Tozzi reported that UnitedHealth “aims to reduce expenses not by denying care, but by spending more on social interventions, starting with housing.”
At the Residences at Camelback West, a Phoenix apartment complex of 500 apartments ranging from studios to two-bedroom units, up to 100 apartments are set aside for UnitedHealth Medicaid members enrolled in myConnections. The rest of the units are rented out at market rates. Five health coaches use an on-site office to serve as case managers and counselors for the myConnections residents. The coaches make sure that their clients remember medical appointments, and arrange transportation for them and sometimes accompany them to the doctor.
Since receiving housing and health coaching from Brenner’s team, Steve’s average monthly medical costs have dropped from $12,945 to $2,073. An analysis of the first 41 participants in Phoenix shows that “housing and support services proved cost effective for the 25 most expensive patients, reducing their overall costs dramatically,” Tozzi reported. But total spending for the other 16 increased, highlighting the complexity of this work.
“The return’s only going to work out if we target the right people,” Brenner told Tozzi. The myConnections team selects patients who are enrolled in UnitedHealth, are homeless, and who have annual medical spending greater than $50,000 mostly because of ER visits and inpatient stays. Those high-cost patients are UnitedHealth’s best bet for recovering the cost of its housing investment.
UnitedHealth is starting with 10 subsidized apartments in each new city where it’s introducing the program, including in places where there might be hundreds of homeless Medicaid members on its rolls, Tozzi reported. MyConnections will be in 30 markets by early 2020.
Kaiser Addresses Homelessness in Its Backyard
In its home base of Oakland, California, health system Kaiser Permanente has invested $200 million in an affordable housing project, Hannah Norman reported in the San Francisco Business Times. Its help is not targeted exclusively at Kaiser members, instead aiming to benefit any residents who live in communities it serves.
The initiative was championed by Bernard Tyson, the late chairman and CEO of Kaiser, who died unexpectedly this month. In a New York Times remembrance, Reed Abelson noted that Tyson was committed to addressing social determinants of health in the places where Kaiser operates. “He had the organization examine broad issues like housing shortages, food insecurity, and gun violence and their impact on health and well-being,” Abelson wrote.
Tyson, who was the health system’s first Black chief executive, served as chair of the Bay Area Council, a business association dedicated to economic development in the San Francisco region. His chairmanship culminated in a major report (PDF) that documented the severity of the homelessness crisis and recommended ways to address it, Norman reported.
“We don’t believe as a mega-health system that our only lane is medical care,” Tyson said in April. “It’s a critical lane, but it’s not our only lane.”
Steady Rents in Buildings with Seismic Upgrades
Kaiser announced its $200 million housing initiative, the Thriving Communities Fund, in January. Since then, it partnered with Enterprise Community Partners, a nonprofit organization focused on affordable housing, and the nonprofit East Bay Asian Local Development Corporation to invest a total of $8.7 million ($5.2 million from Kaiser) in Kensington Gardens, a 41-apartment building in East Oakland. “The trio of organizations plans to keep the residents in place and the rent steady at $1,597 per month for a studio and $2,250 for a two-bedroom,” Norman wrote. “Some residents receive federal housing benefits, including Section 8, to help cover the cost.”
The Kensington Gardens purchase is part of the Thriving Communities Fund’s strategy to keep rents steady and to make health and safety upgrades such as seismic upgrades and new roofs.
Kaiser’s Built for Zero initiative committed $3 million over three years to a data-driven, county-level approach to understanding the dynamics of homelessness. Built for Zero tracks the homeless population in a county from month to month to understand “who they are, what they need, and even how many of them are repeatedly visiting emergency rooms,” Norman reported. Fifteen Kaiser communities, including eight in California, are participating in the program.
The health troubles we’re seeing now — especially among young people — will continue to strain the system for years and even decades to come.
The big picture: Rising obesity rates nowwill translate into rising rates of type 2 diabetes and heart disease. The costs of the opioid crisis will continue to mount even after the acute crisis ends. And all of this will strain what’s already the most expensive health care system in the world.
By the numbers: 18% of American kids are now obese, according to new CDC data. So are roughly 40% of adults. And it’s projected to get worse.
That helps explain why diabetes rates are also rising, and why roughly 30% of adults have high blood pressure.
Why it matters: More obese children means there will be more adults down the road with chronic conditions like diabetes — which can’t be cured, only managed — and these diseases in turn increase the risk of further complications, such as kidney disease and stroke.
Diabetes roughly doubles your lifetime health care bills, according to the CDC, and costs the U.S. a total of $245 billion per year.
As the price of insulin continues to skyrocket, the disease only gets harder for patients to manage, if they can afford treatment at all.
We’re only beginning to see the full costs of the opioid crisis, even though it has raged for years.
A White House report earlier this week pegged the cost of the epidemic at a staggering $696 billion last year alone, including the cost of productivity lost to addiction.
The tide has only barely begun to turn on overall overdose deaths — they still numbered around 68,000 last year.
And many survivors of the epidemic will face long-term health costs. Addiction recovery can be a lifelong process requiring sustained investments. It has also led to skyrocketing rates of Hepatitis C — some states have seen their infection rates rise by more than 200% over the past decade.
Groundbreaking new treatments offer the first-ever cure for Hepatitis C, but at price tags so high that states are experimenting with entirely new ways of paying for the drugs, fearing the status quo simply can’t bear these costs all at once.
The bottom line: The flaws in the U.S. health care system compound one another.
They reward doctors and hospitals for performing more treatment on sick people, and those treatments are expensive. That leaves big gaps in prevention, which drives the need for more expensive treatment.
That’s how we ended up with the world’s most expensive health care system, but without a particularly healthy population to show for it. And that trajectory isn’t changing.
Employers in the metro area expect their spending on benefits to rise 3.6% next year after accounting for changes designed to hold down costs, according to an analysis by Mercer.
That trend would be lower than the 3.9% increase employers experienced this year, with local organizations spending $16,059 per active employee. That’s more than 20% higher than the average cost per employee nationwide.
The benefits consultant broke out the responses of 170 employers in New York City, its surrounding counties, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut for Crain’s from its 2019 National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans.
In the area, the average contribution to premiums for an individual employee is $199 a month in a PPO plan, $169 a month in an HMO and $107 a month in a consumer-directed health plan, which tends to have a higher deductible.
The median deductible for members in a PPO plan was $500 locally.
Nationwide, there was a split, with the average deductible for businesses between 10 and 499 employees increasing nearly 13%, to $2,285, while employers with 500 or more workers raised the average deductible in a PPO plan just $10, or 1%, to $992.
Companies are looking to telemedicine and management programs for their highest-cost members as ways to keep fees down, said Mary Lamattina, a senior consultant at Mercer. She said most clients she works with have at least one beneficiary with $1 million in annual medical expenses.
“Employers are getting away from cost shifting and looking at other ways to tackle affordability,” she said.
Nationwide, employers spent 3% more on health costs this year, driven in part by specialty drug spending. Costs for specialty drugs rose 10.5% this year.
Ninety percent of employers with 500 workers or more said they viewed monitoring or managing high-cost claimants as important or very important. One strategy companies reported using was introducing a tech-enabled chronic care management program for conditions such as diabetes.
About 88% of large employers said they offer telemedicine as an option, but only 9% of eligible employees had taken advantage of the programs.
Lamattina pointed out that utilization was nearly four times higher at organizations that waived a copay for telemedicine use, compared with employers that charged a $40 copay. “
“Utilization can be driven by the cost,” she said. “Convenience is really key to getting people to use the benefit.” —Jonathan LaMantia
Walgreens is inviting outside providers to deliver medical services to its pharmacies as it tries to move away from in-store clinics, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The big picture: The drugstore chain’s decision signals a shift from treating minor issues to treating chronic conditions such as diabetes, heart disease and hypertension.
Treatment for chronically ill patients could offset slowing revenue from prescription drugs and competition from online retailers.
By the numbers: Chronic conditions account for about 90% the U.S.’s annual health-care spending of $3.3 trillion, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Walgreens has about 400 walk-in clinics and CVS Health has 1,000 Minute Clinic locations, which have “barely broken even,” WSJ writes.
The company will close 160 of its in-store clinics.
Utilization is still being dampened by high deductibles and other cost sharing, but at the expense of employee satisfaction.
Medical costs are rising, and by this time next year costs will likely show a modest increase of about 6% over the past two years, according to a new report from PwC, PricewaterhouseCoopers.
After figuring in health plan changes such as increased employee cost sharing and network and benefit changes, PwC’s Health Research Institute, which conducted the study, projects a net growth rate of 5 percent. Even with employers’ actions, market forces likely will still overrun the efforts to quell them.
Prices, not utilization, are continuing to fuel healthcare spending. Utilization is still being dampened by high deductibles and other cost sharing, but at the expense of employee satisfaction with their health plan. In response, employers are inserting themselves more forcefully into the healthcare delivery equation.
WHAT’S THE IMPACT
Beyond market forces, HRI identified three “inflators” that will, influence the medical cost trend.
One is that drug spending will grow faster. Between 2020 and 2027, retail drug spending under private health insurance is projected to increase at a rate of 3 percent to 6 percent a year as the impact of generics on spending plateaus, biosimilars continue to see slow uptake, and costly new therapies enter the market.
Chronic diseases will also be a major issue. Obesity and Type 2 diabetes continue to produce high rates of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Sixty percent of adults have a chronic disease, with 40 percent managing two or more. For employers, per capita health spending on someone with a complex chronic illness is eight times that of a healthy person.
Lastly, employers are beginning to recognize the importance of helping their employees manage their mental health and wellbeing. Nearly 75 percent of employers offer mental health disease management programs, the report found. Anytime access is expanded, costs will go up in the short term, though it may have the opposite effect long-term.
And speaking of the opposite effect, there are a few “deflators” HRI recognized that will likely slow down the medical cost trend.
HRI predicts that in 2020, more companies will take action to make sure healthcare is accessible to their employees, opening and expanding clinics as a strategy to control the cost trend. Thirty-eight percent of large employers offered a worksite clinic in 2019, up from 27 percent in 2014.
Also, payers are designing plans to encourage members to choose free-standing facilities and in-home care rather than more expensive sites. How those benefits are designed, and how employees perceive the costs, will shape the effectiveness of site of care strategies. Payers and employers are aiming to grow the role of telemedicine as employees grow more comfortable with it, especially if out-of-pocket costs are lower and the quality doesn’t suffer.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The trend has implications for employers, payers, providers and even pharmaceutical and life science companies.
For payers, it becomes important to benchmark the prices paid commercially against a common reference point such as Medicare. With this information it’s possible to pursue value-based arrangements with high-performing and lower-cost providers, in addition to negotiating better contracted rates on existing fee-for-service arrangements.
For providers, a value line strategy is necessary as employers and consumers look for high quality care for a low cost. Providers armed with a value line strategy are more likely to be included in health plans’ high-performance networks, and are better positioned to directly contract with employers.
Providers should also understand what risk they can take on to guarantee a health outcome, and the cost structure needed to make them profitable in doing so. Providers should understand and manage both the risk inherent in their ability to deliver care and the risk of the population they’re managing — from health status to the social determinants impacting their health — to help them design appropriate clinical interventions and non-clinical support services.
For employers, it becomes imperative to understand their role as the purchaser of healthcare for employees and join the ranks of employer activists, pursuing new solutions to lower costs, improve access and enhance quality. Pharmaceutical and life science companies, meanwhile, should go beyond the basic outcomes-based arrangements currently in place and consider exploring and expanding alternative financing arrangements, such as subscription models for unlimited access to a product for a set period of time, or a mortgage model to finance expensive specialty drugs over time.
THE LARGER TREND
The PwC study loosely mirrors the findings of an October report from the Altarum Center for Value in Health Care, which found prices and spending in healthcare growing steadily, but at a moderate pace.
The country’s healthcare spending habits are at a level nearly double that of similar countries. Spending per capita in the U.S. is more than $9,000, compared to just over $5,000 in other Western nations, and because prices are growing slowly but steadily, spending is doing the same.
HENRY KOTULA 