Oh, how the tide has turned. Three months ago, COVID was ravaging my homeland, India. The Delta variant was burning through the country like an uncontrolled wildfire. People carted dying relatives town to town, desperately seeking hospital beds or a whiff of oxygen. A cousin in India said, “COVID is not taking lives, just the beds. Lack of oxygen is taking lives.”
I watched India’s suffering unfold and felt guilty for living in one of the world’s most resourceful and scientifically advanced countries. My homeland was floundering, but at least my other homeland — the U.S. — was finally on track.
104 million Americans had been vaccinated. The Pfizer vaccine alleviated the worst outcomes of the B.1.1.7 and B.1351 variants. Adolescents aged 12-15 were gearing up for vaccine eligibility within days, and the CDC was reporting the U.S. could see a sharp decline in COVID cases by July if nationwide vaccinations continued. Health care workers had proper PPE, millions of people were getting vaccinated each week, and infection rates were declining steadily. We could finally see Spring’s light at the end of the year’s tortuous dark tunnel. Our country was in the home stretch.
Now the Delta variant is here and I have to wonder, Who were we kidding? We don’t live in a world where vertical borders prevent airborne particles from crossing time zones. Planes and boats carry viruses from one country to the next like microscopic stowaways. The virus doesn’t abandon ship. It mutates, and adapts, and colonizes.
We had a real chance to strangle this monster, to show the rest of the world how it was done, to help them all in the process. We let that chance slip away. Not everyone and not everywhere, but enough people got complacent. Some waited for herd immunity to carry the load—a number that crept from 60 to 70 to 85 percent, depending on what you read and when you read it—and others just figured it would pass. Now the Delta variant, the same one that tore through India and Great Britain, has twisted out of our flimsy grip and is roaring with laughter.
How did this happen?
Misinformation. Political discord. Vaccine hesitancy. The bottom line is our vaccination rate faltered. The CDC reported that on August 1, 2021, approximately 400,000 Americans received their first COVID dose. While that seems high, it’s less than a quarter of the peak in mid-April. We haven’t maxed out eligible people (only 58.1 percent of eligible people were fully vaccinated as of a week ago). We’re maxing out the number of people who know COVID’s real repercussions are far worse than the vaccine’s feared ones.
The U.S now has the third-highest rate of vaccine skepticism among 15 of the world’s largest economies. Our vaccine surplus is so large the FDA extended Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine expiration dates to avoid throwing out perfectly good doses. Less than a week ago, President Biden announced the U.S. has donated and shipped more than 110 million doses to 60 countries. While I applaud the humanitarian effort, I question the fate of those doses if the 41.9 percent unvaccinated eligible people in our country had wanted them.
It makes me wonder: Why does science take a backseat to unsubstantiated pseudoscientific claims?
Spreaders of vaccine disinformation fill their social media accounts with statements questioning COVID’s existence and purporting unproven treatments (never mind the fact that we wouldn’t need treatments if COVID didn’t exist) with little to no peer-reviewed scientific research to support their anti-vaccine claims. According to Imran Ahmed, CEO of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, twelve people — the “disinformation dozen” — produce 65 percent of the shares of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms.”
Is it easier for some to believe that a science-backed treatment is inherently more dangerous than an unknown herb plucked from a field? Perhaps. But what do they say to the approximately 216 kids hospitalized daily in the U.S. over the past week, particularly in areas where vaccine coverage is low? Bad luck? You weren’t strong enough? What would have made them stronger?
Yes, there are measures underway to increase vaccinations—full FDA approval, social media crackdowns on misinformation, and government, company, military, and college mandates. But let’s be honest, many Americans are fighting these measures, as they will fight future mandates, and the next vaccine.
Only two things can change how non-vaxxers perceive COVID vaccines: education and trust. We need to sincerely hear their reasons, and then gently clarify misinformation—vaccines don’t introduce disease into our bodies. They stimulate our immune systems to obtain immunity without getting the disease. Vaccines don’t alter our DNA. Their safety has been tested. Medicines have potential side effects, but illnesses have definite ones. COVID kills indiscriminately; vaccines don’t.
Trust is harder. How can we help people trust these vaccines? I suppose on a deeper level, it’s more about trusting the people that make the vaccines. Big pharma, for-profit companies—sure, they are the money makers. But behind the scenes, the vaccines are created by men and women who’ve accepted the charge to make this world—not just individuals—safer and healthier. They’ve spent years studying, researching, and testing potential vaccines with dedication and patience, including the mRNA technology in COVID vaccines. Just because the COVID vaccine’s rollout was fast-tracked to combat the pandemic doesn’t mean the scientists cut corners in designing and testing it.
Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of slowly educating and gradually building trust. COVID is terrorizing our planet now. The world is shaking its heads at the U.S., wondering what happened. We were supposed to be the leader. This morning, an aunt in a small town in India sent me a WhatsApp message: “I have taken the vaccine … the positivity rate has gone down … I am worried for America … how r u?” I don’t know. America, how are we? It’s not too late to destroy this monster, but if the unvaccinated remain unmoved, it will be soon.
After a calmer start to the summer, the Delta variant is eroding consumer confidence as COVID-19 surges across many parts of the US once again. Using the latest data from Morning Consult’s Consumer Confidence Index, the graphic above shows the fluctuations in consumer confidence levels across the last year.
The most recent COVID surge has caused a five-point drop in confidence in the past month and, with cases still rising, we expect this trend to continue into the fall. Notably, with renewed masking guidance and increasing reports of breakthrough infections, confidence has dropped more among fully vaccinated individuals than among the unvaccinated.
Consumers’ comfort levels aren’t only dropping when it comes to daily activities, like grocery shopping or dining at a restaurant, but also with respect to healthcare. A recent survey from Jarrard Phillips Cate & Hancock finds that while consumers feel safer visiting healthcare settings in August 2021 than they did back in January, more than a third of consumers report the current COVID situation is making them less likely to seek non-emergency care, and 44 percent say they are more likely to pursue virtual care alternatives.
Health systems must be able to seamlessly “dial up” or “dial down” their virtual care capabilities in order to meet fluctuating consumer demand and avoid another wave of missed or deferred care.
The month of July has seen Covid-19 cases in the United States increase at the fastest pace since last winter, marking the start of the latest wave of infections to afflict the nation. A new STAT analysis of Covid-19 case data reveals this new wave is already outpacing the spring and summer waves of 2020.
There are many metrics that governments, scientists, and media outlets have used to try and reckon with the Covid-19 pandemic. One of the most popular ways of visualizing Covid data has been to track the weekly average of new cases. This is pictured below.
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT
The number represented by the line could be thought of as the velocity of cases in the U.S. It tells us how fast case counts are increasing or decreasing and does a good job of showing us the magnitude of each wave of cases.
The chart, however, fails to show the rate of acceleration of cases. This is the rate at which the number of new cases is speeding up or slowing down.
As an analogy, a car’s velocity tells you how fast the car is going. Its acceleration tells you how quickly that car is speeding up.
Using Covid-19 case data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and Our World in Data, combined with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, STAT was able to calculate the rate of weekly case acceleration, pictured below.
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT
In this chart, we see how quickly the weekly average of new cases is changing. When the values are positive, new case counts are increasing, and when the values are negative, new case counts are falling. Highlighted in red, we can see each previous wave’s intensity and duration.
Looking at the data this way is useful because the rate at which cases increase is a reasonable indicator of how intense that wave might be and how long it might last. For example, case acceleration in the U.S. reached a peak in November 2020, closer to the start of the nation’s deadly winter wave than to when cases reached their zenith in January of 2021.
This view of the data reveals that the United States is currently in the midst of a fifth wave of cases and that this new wave is growing faster than the first and second waves from spring and summer of 2020.
STAT also calculated case acceleration rates for each state and major territory in the U.S., revealing where cases are increasing the fastest.
J. EMORY PARKER/STAT
In the last two weeks, new case counts in Louisiana accelerated the fastest in the nation at an average rate of 444 cases per week per day (2.38 cases per 100,000 people per week per day). Only 36% of the state’s residents are vaccinated, making it among the least vaccinated in the country.
J. EMORY PARKERJ. EMORY PARKER/STAT
By looking at the state’s case acceleration rate, we can see that cases in Louisiana are currently increasing faster than they did at the start of last winter’s wave.
Likewise, in the state of Florida, the case acceleration rate has outpaced that state’s 2020 summer wave.
J. EMORY PARKER/STATJ. EMORY PARKER/STAT
In Florida, about 48% of residents are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
Cases are increasing in nearly every region of the country, but they are not increasing at the same rate everywhere. Vaccination rates likely help explain these variations.
The five states where cases are accelerating the fastest all have vaccination rates below the national average. But consider the state of Massachusetts, where about 63% of the population is fully vaccinated.
The New York Times’ Covid Dashboard reports the state has an alarming 351% increase in cases over the last 14 days, the highest such percentage change in the nation. Looking at Massachusetts’ case acceleration paints a different picture.
J. EMORY PARKER/STATJ. EMORY PARKER/STAT
While cases in Massachusetts are increasing, the rate at which case reports are accelerating is much lower than it has been for any of the state’s previous waves, and is below the national average for case acceleration.
State governments, private businesses and even part of the federal government are suddenly embracing mandatory coronavirus vaccinations for their employees.
Why it matters:Vaccine mandates have been relatively uncommon in the U.S. But with vaccination rates stagnating and the Delta variant driving yet another wave of cases, there’s been a new groundswell of support for such requirements.
Driving the news: Monday was a turning point.
The VA became the first federal agency to require its employees to be vaccinated.
More than 50 medical groups called for mandatory vaccinations of all health care workers, WaPo first reported.
California announced that state employees and health care workers must show proof of vaccination or get tested regularly.
New York City brought all municipal workers — including teachers and police officers — under a vaccine requirement that had previously only applied to health workers.
Even the SF Bar Owner Alliance hopped onboard, announcing that the 500 San Francisco bars it represents will require indoor customers to show proof of vaccination or a negative test.
The big picture: Vaccine requirements are also gaining steam internationally.
France has required health workers to get vaccinated. Members of the public must also have a vaccine or a negative test to enter most indoor venues.
Although the measure has sparked protests, it’s also encouraged millions of people to get vaccinated, per the NYT.
The bottom line:Vaccine mandates have been unpopular in part because they’ll inevitably create a backlash.
But the vaccination effort seems to have run out of carrots to incentivize more people to get a shot, and with rates remaining as low as they are in light of a worsening domestic situation, resorting to sticks has clearly become a more attractive option.
HENRY KOTULA 