Analysis: Nurse force to grow 36% by 2030, thanks to millennials

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/analysis-nurse-force-to-grow-36-by-2030-thanks-to-millennials/506539/

Dive Brief:

  • Millennials are becoming registered nurses at nearly twice the rate of baby boomers, but that still won’t necessarily prevent a nursing shortage as boomers retire, a new analysis in Health Affairs concludes.
  • The number of younger RNs nearly doubled to 834,000 in 2015, after dropping to 440,000 in 2000 when Generation Xers were joining the workforce.
  • The number of millennials entering the space has leveled off recently, however, suggesting only modest growth over the next decade. Still, millennials will dominate the nurse workforce in the 2020s, the article says.

Dive Insight:

The average age of the nursing workforce in 2005 was 44, spurring widespread predictions of a nursing shortage as baby boomers retired from the field, according to the authors.

They attribute millennials’ embrace of nursing to several factors. The profession offers stable lifetime earnings and low unemployment as well as opportunities for advancement and relocation. And it can be parlayed in myriad ways across the healthcare industry.

“Considering the acceleration in retirement of the baby boomers and the stabilization of the entering cohort sizes among millennials, we expect the nurse workforce to grow 36%, to just over four million RNs, between 2015 and 2030, a rate of 1.3% annual per capita growth,” the authors write. “This is a rate of per capita growth similar to that observed from 1979 to 2000, but half the rate observed in the rapid-growth years of 2000-15.”

Whether that growth rate is enough to meet demand as baby boomer nurses retire is hard to gauge.

While nursing may be enjoying a surge in popularity, as professions go, retention is a growing problem. In a recent Medscape poll, about one in five nurses said they would not make the same career choice again. Nurses with more than 21 years in the profession were more likely to be dissatisfied than those who were new to the practice.

To retain nurses, hospitals need to provide opportunities for upward mobility and changing roles. They also need to address clinician burnout associated with increasing regulatory and administrative tasks. Allowing nurses to practice at the top of their licenses can also increase workplace satisfaction — not to mention helping address the problem of physician burnout.

Critics see Trump sabotage on ObamaCare

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/354308-trump-sabotage-seen-on-obamacare

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The Trump administration is taking a hatchet to ObamaCare after failing to pass legislation through Congress repealing President Obama’s signature law.

The administration has cut funding for advertising and outreach by 90 percent, raising the odds that fewer people will join the health-care exchanges during the fall enrollment period.

It has slashed funds by 41 percent for outside groups that help reach and enroll likely ObamaCare consumers.

The enrollment period has also been chopped in half, and the administration announced plans to take down the Healthcare.gov website for maintenance for hours at a time on several days during the sign-up period, two other steps likely to cut into enrollment.

All of these steps could lead fewer people to sign up for the law, which in turn might lead to higher premiums that could force others off the exchanges.

Healthy people are the most likely to drop coverage because of a lack of outreach, leaving a sicker group of enrollees that drives up costs for everyone else.

“One has to assume at this point that enrollment will be lower as a result of the administration’s actions and that will lead to fewer healthier people signing up,” said Larry Levitt, a health policy expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The Trump attacks go beyond enrollment, too.

President Trump has threatened to cut off key ObamaCare payments to insurers in a bid to make the law “implode.”

And on Friday, his administration took a new step to roll back the law, limiting the requirement for employers and insurance plans to cover birth control.

Andy Slavitt, a former top health-care official in the Obama administration, warned on Twitter Thursday that the administration’s “sabotage” of the law added up to what he called “synthetic repeal,” meaning a range of small steps that add up to repealing ObamaCare even if Congress doesn’t act.

The administration counters that ObamaCare is a failing law that should not be propped up.

“Obamacare has never lived up to enrollment expectations despite the previous administration’s best efforts,” a Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement. “The American people know a bad deal when they see one and many won’t be convinced to sign up for ‘Washington-knows-best’ health coverage that they can’t afford.”

The cuts are having real world consequences already.

Reducing the outreach budget has forced local organizations known as navigators to dramatically scale back their operations.

Shelli Quenga, director of programs at the Palmetto Project, a navigator group in South Carolina, said her organization has had to cut staff from 62 people to 30 after its funding was reduced by around 50 percent.

“You want to talk about designed to fail?” she said. “This is the playbook for how to build something to make sure it fails.”

Quenga said that she only found out about the cut to her organization’s funding after the administration publicly made an announcement about the navigator cuts and she was called by a reporter for reaction.

She said the career officials she works with at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) were not aware of or involved in the decision to cut the funding, saying the decision was made at higher levels of the administration.

Navigators across the country had to scramble to craft new plans ahead of the open enrollment period beginning on Nov. 1.

“I’m just feeling very anxious about the fact that we have a whole lot less time to gear up then we should have had,” said Jodi Ray, director of Florida Covering Kids and Families, which is affiliated with the University of South Florida.

“We had a very well thought out plan, and we definitely had to go back and revise that plan, except we didn’t plan on having 3.5 weeks to put it together,” said Ray, whose group will receive $900,000 less, a 15 percent reduction.

A group of former Obama administration officials this week announced plans to launch their own enrollment effort, called Get America Covered, to try to fill the gap left by the cuts.

Insurers and ObamaCare supporters are also on edge about an executive order from Trump that could come as soon as next week loosening rules to allow businesses and other groups to band together to purchase health insurance. The problem is that these special insurance plans are not subject to the same ObamaCare rules and pre-existing condition protections, which could suck the healthy enrollees out of ObamaCare plans and damage the market.

The administration has also resisted efforts by some states, even conservative ones, to make changes aimed at stabilizing ObamaCare.

Iowa submitted an innovation waiver, which lets states alter ObamaCare as long as the law’s basic protections are retained. Part of the proposal included conservative reforms to the Affordable Care Act, yet President Trump reportedly wasn’t on board.

Trump saw a story about the waiver in The Wall Street Journal, and asked CMS to deny it, according to The Washington Post.

The application has not been formally rejected, at least not yet. It is in the midst of a 30-day public comment period, and is still pending, an Iowa Insurance Division spokesman confirmed to The Hill.

But without it, Iowa’s Insurance Commissioner Doug Ommen has warned the impact “on many Iowa families would be catastrophic.”

The deep-red state of Oklahoma had sought a waiver to help stabilize its markets, but withdrew it at the end of September because it hadn’t received approval from the administration in time.

The withdrawal came even after “months of development, negotiation and near daily communication over the past six weeks” between the state and the administration, Oklahoma wrote in a letter complaining to the administration about the lack of action.

“While we appreciate the work of your staff, the lack of timely waiver approval will prevent thousands of Oklahomans from realizing the benefits of significantly lower insurance premiums in 2018,” wrote Terry Cline, Oklahoma’s Commissioner of Health.

 

Grassley Pressing to Include Drug Pricing Measures in CHIP Reauthorization

https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/03/grassley-pressing-include-drug-pricing-measures-chip-reauthorization/

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  • The CREATES Act would crack down on practices employed by some brand-name drugmakers to thwart generic competition.
  • The Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act targets deals between brand-name drugmakers and their generic counterparts to delay the market entry of competing drugs.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, a senior member and former chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, is pressing GOP leaders to tackle high drug prices in a critical bill to renew funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Grassley (R-Iowa), who has tried for years to advance legislation targeting rising prescription drug costs to little avail, is pushing two bills as potential offsets for CHIP funding.

Both measures have some bipartisan support, but neither has advanced in previous congressional sessions amid fierce pushback from the pharmaceutical industry. But with urgency on Capitol Hill to renew CHIP, which expired last week, Grassley is taking a shot at getting the bills — the CREATES Act and the Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act — included in the reauthorization as partial offsets.

The CREATES Act would crack down on practices employed by some brand-name drugmakers to thwart generic competition, while the Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act targets deals between brand-name drugmakers and their generic counterparts to delay competing drugs from entering the market.

Experts on Grassley’s staff have talked with staff on the Senate Finance Committee and in leadership about the proposals ahead of a committee markup of the CHIP legislation on Wednesday, according to a senior GOP aide.

Supporters from the health sector, which include health insurers, providers and patient organizations, say their chances have never been better, given public outrage at exorbitant drug prices, bipartisan desire to address the issue in Congress and interest in drug prices from within the Trump administration. The proposals have even united progressive advocacy group Public Citizen and the conservative FreedomWorks.

Still, despite unprecedented momentum to tackle rising prescription costs, it is still far from certain whether Grassley will be successful. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) has not endorsed either measure and has sometimes sided with brand-name drugmakers on divisive pricing issues. Hatch’s office did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

“It is a delicate conversation between two chairmen who’ve been here for more than a cup of coffee,” Rodney Whitlock, Grassley’s former health policy expert, said in an interview Tuesday. Whitlock is now vice president of health policy at the consulting firm ML Strategies LLC.

Political procedure also complicates Grassley’s effort. Both drug pricing measures have been referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee, which Grassley chairs, while the Senate Finance Committee has jurisdiction over CHIP.

A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) directed a request for comment to Grassley’s office.

New York City public hospitals take measures to conserve cash

http://www.healthleadersmedia.com/leadership/new-york-city-public-hospitals-take-measures-conserve-cash?spMailingID=12087951&spUserID=MTY3ODg4NTg1MzQ4S0&spJobID=1260507154&spReportId=MTI2MDUwNzE1NAS2

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The head of New York City’s public hospital system says he will leave more jobs unfilled at the 11 hospitals he oversees to cope with a cash-flow crisis that emerged after the state withheld millions in aid. City and state officials have sparred over the funding in recent days as healthcare dollars from Washington become scarce. Stanley Brezenoff, interim president of NYC Health + Hospitals, said in a letter to staff on Thursday that he would fill just 25% of the 250 to 300 positions that become available each month at the hospitals the system oversees.

MIPS Takes a Beating at MedPAC

http://www.healthleadersmedia.com/finance/mips-takes-beating-medpac?spMailingID=12087951&spUserID=MTY3ODg4NTg1MzQ4S0&spJobID=1260507154&spReportId=MTI2MDUwNzE1NAS2#

Image result for MIPS Takes a Beating at MedPAC

 

MedPAC has been set on defeating the Merit-based Incentive Payment System for a long time; but whether the program should be simply “repealed” or “repealed and replaced” wasn’t clear at Thursday’s meeting.

Health policy experts sometimes battle for consensus over payment issues, but when it comes to the new way of paying most doctors under Medicare, one group reached near-unanimous agreement: Scrap it.

The Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) should be spiked, virtually all members of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) said during a meeting on Thursday morning.

MedPAC, whose members include physicians, healthcare executives, and other policy experts charged with advising the Department of Health and Human Services on Medicare policy issues, has been set on defeating MIPS for a long time; but whether the program should be simply “repealed” or “repealed and replaced” wasn’t clear at Thursday’s meeting.

At the start of the meeting, MedPAC’s analysts addressed the challenges with the MIPS program and proposed a potential alternative.

The Problem with MIPS

The MIPS program is one of two payment vehicles created as a result of the the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA) — which replaced the almost universally despised Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula. The other payment pathway consists of an array of advanced Alternative Payment Models (APMs), which weren’t discussed in any detail at the meeting.

The main problem with the MIPS program, as MedPAC’s analysts see it, is that MIPS won’t achieve the policy goals that it’s designed to achieve.

The flexibility of the program — the various options for how physicians can report measures and the broad exemptions for certain types of clinicians — has made it overly complex. There are also statistical challenges that stem from trying to develop individual-level performance scores, due to the relatively small case sizes for some providers.

“Everyone will seem to have high performance when in fact many of the measures are topped out or appear to be topped out … and that will limit Medicare’s ability to detect meaningful differences in clinician performance,” said David Glass, a principal policy analyst for MedPAC.

In the end, Medicare gives clinicians a score based on their performance and either raises or reduces their Medicare payment based on that score, but for all the reasons Glass mentioned, he believes it is “extremely unlikely that physicians will understand their score or what they need to do to improve it.”

“Our most basic concern is that the measures in MIPS have not been proven to be associated with high-value care,” he said.

Alternative Proposed

Glass and MedPAC senior analyst Kate Bloniarz suggested an alternative policy approach that leverages population-based measures.

The Voluntary Value Program, as they’ve dubbed the alternative, would get rid of the MIPS program and all three types of reporting requirements — Advancing Care Information (ACI), Clinical Practice Improvement Activities (CPIA), and quality measures — and scrap CMS support for Electronic Health Records reporting.

In the new model, all clinicians would see a portion of their fee schedule dollars withheld, which would be lumped into a pool — for example 2%, though analysts stressed the percent amount had not been decided.

Clinicians would then have three options:

  • Choose to be measured with a “sufficiently large entity” of clinicians and be eligible for value payments
  • Choose to participate in an advanced APM model
  • Lose the withheld fee schedule dollars

In the first option, the “sufficiently large entity” could be those physicians affiliated with a single hospital or one geographic area, she said.

“An entity’s performance would then be collectively measured using a set of population-based measures,” Bloniarz added.

A limitation of the model is that entities must be “sufficiently large” in order to have “statistically detectable performance on the population based measures.”

In the Voluntary Value Program, measures could potentially fall under three categories: clinical quality, patient experience, and value. For example, a clinical quality measure might include mortality or avoidable admissions.

Unlike the MIPS program, all of the measures could be pulled from Medicare claims data or “centrally conducted surveys” avoiding the clinician reporting burden, Bloniarz explained.

Repeal and Replace?

Most members of the commission expressed support for the new model or at least felt it was a good start.

One new commissioner, David Grabowski, PhD, of Harvard Medical School in Boston, said he favored having a replacement, but he worried that some physicians, particularly those in rural areas, or those treating dual eligible patients (enrollees in both Medicare and Medicaid) might be left out. He stressed that incorporating proper risk adjustment mechanisms into the measurement process would be critical.

Paul Ginsburg, PhD, of the Brookings Institution, also supported a repeal-and-replace strategy.

“My sense is that the politicians don’t want to do nothing. They want to do something,” he said.

However, several commissioners were more hesitant, asking whether replacing the MIPS program was necessary.

“Are we creating something that is so close to the advanced APM structure that it’s almost not worth it?” asked Dana Gelb Safran, ScD, of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts.

Gelb Safran suggested that if the commission does choose to recommend an alternative, distinctions between it and the APMs would need to be clear. She also wondered aloud whether with these new entities would revive some of the challenges of the old SGR formula.

The challenge with the SGR was that individuals weren’t truly accountable to each other even though they were lumped together, she explained.

“That really undercuts the desire to behave in the way that the incentives should make them behave because somebody else could kill their incentive, so why bother.”

Craig Samitt, MD, MBA of Anthem in Indianapolis, said he would favor a repeal-only approach, based on the replacement model he’d seen that day.

“If a replacement is a voluntary model that would allow us to keep practicing healthcare the way we’ve been practicing, then that replacement is not a good replacement,” Samitt said.

MedPAC member Kathy Buto, MPA, of Arlington, Virginia, suggested another idea: repeal the MIPS program, but continue to withhold the funds from the clinicians who aren’t participating in the advanced APMs. Then use those dollars to reward APM performance.

“I would actually increase the penalty and make it less attractive to stay in MIPS regardless,” she said.

Commission Chairman Francis J. Crosson, MD, joked that he would be happy to escort Buto from the meeting after it adjourned — implying her idea might be dangerously unpopular with physicians.

In the end, Crosson determined that MedPAC’s technical team would return to the group with draft recommendations for repealing the MIPS program and offer two options: a voluntary replacement program similar to the one discussed at Thursday’s meeting with some revisions, and suggestions on how to make the advanced Alternative Payment Models more accessible for physicians.

The commission could then decide whether to recommend one or both options to HHS.