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Top 10 health care surprises of 2017

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https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/30/trump-health-care-surprises-248996

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President Donald Trump stormed into office last January confident that he could knock off Obamacare in a nanosecond. It didn’t turn out that way — and from drug prices to the Tom Price travel scandal, a lot of health policy didn’t go according to plan. Here’s a look at 10 health care surprises from 2017.

1. Obamacare survives its seventh year

In control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republicans had their best shot ever at Obamacare repeal — and even thought they could have it on Trump’s desk on Inauguration Day. The grand ambitions quickly met roadblocks. Members rebelled over policy details, GOP leaders struggled to find consensus, moderates mutinied, and virtually the entire health care industry — along with Democrats and Obamacare advocates — lined up against every plan that Republicans put forward.

Even so, the GOP eventually squeaked a bill through the House and after several false starts put a proposal on the Senate floor. That’s when Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) delivered perhaps the biggest stunner of the year: a late-night thumbs-down that sunk the Senate bill and effectively ended the GOP’s repeal effort … until 2018.

Still, Senate Republicans concede that with an even narrower vote margin, dismantling Obamacare may become, as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) delicately put it, “a little more difficult.”

2. Price jets away from HHS

After years of railing against Obamacare as a member of Congress, Tom Price finally got a chance to do something about it as Health and Human Services secretary. The former orthopedic surgeon would aid Republicans’ effort to repeal the law while simultaneously unraveling Obamacare’s web of regulations. He fell short on both counts. Price all but disappeared during the Senate’s bid to craft a repeal bill, frustrating Republicans and, more importantly, the president. Soon after, POLITICO revealed that he had routinely traveled by chartered private or military aircraft, costing taxpayers $1 million.

The scrutiny over his travel habits, combined with Trump’s irritation on Affordable Care Act repeal, sped Price’s resignation seven months into the job. He left few tangible accomplishments — other than the distinction of being the first Cabinet member to make his exit.

3. Tough talk and no action on drug prices

Trump lobbed insults at a host of health care targets, but perhaps none landed with more rhetorical force than his denunciations of the “disastrous” drug industry.

“The drug companies, frankly, are getting away with murder,” he seethed early on, suggesting he might empower Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies.

It didn’t happen. For all of Trump’s tough talk, he’s made no concrete moves toward cracking down on pharmaceutical prices. A promised executive order never materialized — and a leaked draft of the directive appeared largely pharma-friendly anyway.

In November, Trump nominated Alex Azar, a former pharmaceutical executive, to serve as his next HHS secretary. Azar has already rejected sweeping changes to rein in drug prices, like allowing drug reimportation or giving Medicare greater negotiating power. The administration’s agenda on drug prices now looks smaller, more traditional, and far less of a threat to the pharmaceutical industry.

4. GOP kills the individual mandate — in a tax bill

For all their failures on repealing and replacing Obamacare, Republicans did land a major blow — it just took a tax bill to get the job done. The GOP’s sweeping tax overhaul zeroes out the penalty levied on most people for not purchasing insurance starting in 2019, effectively gutting Obamacare’s individual mandate.

Republicans had long made the mandate a top target for repeal. But it’s also a pillar of the health law — the mechanism that Obamacare supporters contend is crucial to keeping enough healthy people in the market to stabilize premiums.

Yet, in a twist, Senate Republicans who months earlier proved too skittish to dismantle Obamacare jumped at the chance to eliminate the mandate, despite Congressional Budget Office projections that it would drive up premiums 10 percent and leave 13 million more people uninsured over the next decade.

With just 12 days left in a year they’d vowed was Obamacare’s last, Republicans passed their tax bill — and in the process, made their only major legislative change to the health law.

5. Planned Parenthood’s funding goes untouched

The GOP’s sweep into power also placed Republicans on the verge of accomplishing a second top health care goal: defunding Planned Parenthood. Once again, Republicans found themselves foiled by their own members. Moderate Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) used their leverage as Senate swing votes to protect the funding of an organization they ardently support.

When McCain joined them in voting down repeal in July, it also put the defunding efforts on hold indefinitely. And now facing only a two-vote advantage in the Senate in 2018, it’s unclear whether the GOP can find the political will to take federal action against Planned Parenthood.

6. The vaccine controversy that never was

When high-profile vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr. traveled to New York in January to meet with Trump, it looked like the start of a controversial plan to boost the scientifically disproved theory that vaccines can cause autism. Trump had previously suggested vaccines could be dangerous, and Kennedy emerged from Trump Tower touting plans to chair “a commission on vaccine safety and scientific integrity” at the president-elect’s behest.

“President-elect Trump has some doubts about the current vaccine policies and has questions about it,” Kennedy said.

But Trump’s team never confirmed Kennedy’s assertions, and after Inauguration Day any momentum for a vaccine commission appeared to fizzle out. The chiefs of the administration’s Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institutes of Health all advocate for vaccines, and there hasn’t been a peep from the White House so far about taking any close look at vaccine safety beyond the normal regulatory oversight.

7. Single payer gets serious

At this time last year, single-payer health care was a progressive pipe dream. Now it’s a rallying point for liberal Democrats, a possible litmus test for 2020 hopefuls and a serious policy proposal that’s won the backing of nearly a third of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ universal health care plan vaulted into the mainstream in September, after high-profile Democrats trying to strike a contrast to the GOP’s Obamacare repeal efforts latched onto the goal of universal coverage.

“Quality health care shouldn’t be the providence of people’s wealth. It should be a virtue of us being United States citizens,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), one of several likely 2020 candidates backing the plan, said at the time.

The single-payer push exposed divisions over how exactly to achieve universal coverage, and several Democrats have put forth their own ideas on how to move more gradually. But the shift in the Democratic platform is clear: Three years after Sanders (I-Vt.) failed to win a single co-sponsor for his plan, universal health care is becoming a defining issue for Democrats in the run-up to 2020.

8. Medicaid as a wedge issue

In a year that was supposed to be all about Obamacare, Congress spent much of its time on Medicaid. The GOP’s Obamacare repeal bills all targeted the low-income health insurance program as well. Their proposals would have profoundly changed the nature of Medicaid — not just the expansion that was part of Obamacare but the traditional parts that predated the ACA by decades.

That’s where the GOP’s health care effort hit perhaps its most intense resistance, as Medicaid — traditionally overshadowed by Medicare — suddenly became a third rail. Democrats seized on projections that capping federal funding would drive deep coverage losses and leave the nation’s most vulnerable worse off. State governors on both sides of the aisle warned that the changes would cripple their ability to deliver crucial services. Swing vote Republicans balked at deep cuts at a time when Medicaid offered the first line of defense against the growing opioid epidemic.

That hasn’t stopped the GOP from taking on Medicaid in other ways. The Trump administration is encouraging states to impose work requirements and has made entitlement and welfare reform — both of which could involve Medicaid — a priority for 2018.

9. Shkreli goes to jail over Hillary’s hair

That Martin Shkreli will finish off this year from prison isn’t a surprise — but it’s what put him there that was unexpected.

The former Turing Pharmaceutical CEO, who gained notoriety for hiking the price of an AIDS drug, was convicted of securities fraud in August. But he was living freely while awaiting sentencing until he offered $5,000 on Facebook for a strand of then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s hair. The post qualified as a “solicitation of assault,” a judge ruled, before revoking Shkreli’s bond and sending him to prison.

It’s just one of many strange twists in Shkreli’s saga, which included calling congressmen “imbeciles” on Twitter hours after refusing to answer questions at a House committee hearing; livestreaming on YouTube for hours on end, including right after his conviction; and purchasing the sole copy of a 2015 Wu-Tang Clan album for more than $1 million. He’ll now serve jail time over his request for Clinton’s hair until a mid-January sentencing hearing.

10. Collins, Murkowski play power brokers in the Senate

The most moderate members in a Republican Conference that narrowly controls the Senate, Collins and Murkowski were always going to be crucial players. But GOP leaders may not have anticipated just how much they’d flex that power.

Collins and Murkowski held out throughout the repeal effort over Medicaid cuts and skimpier subsidies they worried would hurt their states — and tanked a top GOP priority. At the end of the day, both voted for the big tax bill, with its individual mandate repeal. Collins got a promise from Senate leaders that two ACA stabilization bills would be included in Congress’ year-end spending agreement — though the bill have been pushed into 2018 and are in trouble, given the House opposition.

With Republicans’ margin in the Senate set to narrow to just 51-49 next year, Collins and Murkowski appear set to exercise even more influence over the party’s direction come 2018.

 

3 political issues for hospitals to watch in 2018

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3 political issues for hospitals to watch in 2018

Hospitals and health providers suffered minimal damage in this year’s political collision over Obamacare. But 2018 will bring a series of equally high-stakes debates that will affect the financial viability of hospitals and the future of how care is measured and delivered.

And by the way, the war over Obamacare is hardly over — it’ll start up again next year with proposals to stabilize insurance markets and renewed GOP repeal efforts.

Here are some additional issues to watch:

Redefining value

The Trump administration is promising to set a new course for medicine’s value movement. Seema Verma, the chief of Medicare and Medicaid, is evaluating proposals for ways to link government reimbursement to patient outcomes. She is moving away from the mandatory payment programs created under President Obama — in which hospitals received lump sum payments for repairing fractured hips and other services — in favor of voluntary models with more flexible arrangements created by doctors and hospitals.

Greater leeway from the federal government might make it easier for hospitals to experiment with novel ideas, like pushing for new payment arrangements in specialty areas such as gastroenterology, behavioral health, and cancer care. But the additional flexibility could also take the teeth out of reforms and fatten providers’ margins without delivering corresponding cost and quality benefits.

It is unclear when the Trump administration will unveil its plans for new payment programs, but keep an eye out for news in the first half of 2018.

Medicaid, Medicaid, Medicaid

The federal program that provides care for the poor and disabled will remain a Republican target next year. The prospects of sweeping federal legislation appear dim, with strong Democratic opposition against a razor-thin GOP majority in the Senate. But the Trump administration may cut the program anyway, by giving states more flexibility to reshape their programs. That could mean swift approvals of popular GOP reforms, such as work requirements and premium-like payments by beneficiaries.

The implications couldn’t be bigger for providers, or their low-income patients. The underlying goal of these efforts is to reduce enrollments in the $500 billion program, an outcome that would increase uncompensated care and financial instability for struggling hospitals and households. But Republicans argue that cuts are necessary to keep federal spending in check and free states from mandates that are crowding out other budget priorities. That clash of interests will generate skirmishes across the country in 2018.

FDA regulation of medical technology

The Food and Drug Administration is redefining what it means to be a medical device in the digital age — a process that will have implications for the health care facilities that are the primary purchasers of such devices.

The FDA recently proposed streamlining the regulation of many health software products. The move will broaden providers’ arsenal of digital tools, such as decision support programs that helps doctors detect and respond to infections or diagnose rare diseases.

However the agency did not take a firm position on machines that rely on artificial intelligence, an area poised to generate plenty of debate in coming months. Products like Watson, IBM’s supercomputer, still fall in a regulatory gray area, as do others that rely on algorithms whose inner workings are shielded from users.

The key question is this: Should the FDA require companies to prove their products deliver safe and effective advice, or can they unleash these machines in health care with minimal oversight?

 

Medicaid is GOP target in 2018

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http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/366728-gop-could-push-medicaid-cuts-in-2018

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Medicaid could face crucial tests in 2018 at both the federal and state levels.

Republicans in Congress failed in their attempts earlier this year to impose drastic cuts to the program as part of ObamaCare repeal, but GOP lawmakers could try again next year.

The tax bill that President Trump recently signed into law is projected to add $1 trillion to the federal deficit, making cuts to Medicaid an even more tempting target for some conservatives.

“Medicaid is front and center in any budget exercises, and now that deficits have increased, it puts Medicaid squarely in the bull’s-eye,” said Joan Alker, the executive director of the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has said he wants to bring down entitlement spending, saying in December that “health-care entitlements such as Medicare and Medicaid are the big drivers of debt.”

Any entitlement cuts from Ryan will likely face pushback from members of his own party, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell has said he doesn’t expect to see entitlement reform on the agenda next year ahead of the midterms.

“The sensitivity of entitlements is such that you almost have to have a bipartisan agreement in order to achieve a result,” McConnell told reporters in late December.

Medicaid covers nearly 75 million people, and the program has proven resilient in the face of conservative opposition.

Cindy Mann, a consultant at Manatt Health who ran Medicaid under former President Obama, said attacks on Medicaid have made it more popular.

“Medicaid has always been supported by the people closest to it,” Mann said.

Some Republican senators have recognized the political risks of Medicaid cuts, too. The GOP’s ObamaCare repeal push failed in part because of senators opposed to the Medicaid cuts.

“The Medicaid program is starting to get a politically powerful status,” said Eliot Fishman, the senior director of health policy at Families USA, an advocacy group.

Fishman noted that Maine, Arizona and Alaska are all Medicaid expansion states represented by Republican senators who have shown a willingness to protect the expansion funding.

Over 16 million people have enrolled in Medicaid since states began expanding coverage under ObamaCare. The program could continue to grow in the near future, as more states could seek to take advantage of the additional federal money offered by the health law.

Future Medicaid expansions could be especially likely if a Democratic wave in November’s midterms gives Democrats control in more statehouses.

In Virginia, Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) has promised to expand Medicaid, something Democrats in the state have been unable to accomplish in the last four years in the face of a GOP-controlled legislature. But with a 50-50 split in the House or even a 51-49 Democratic minority, depending on the results of a recount, Northam has much better odds than current Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D).

In Maine, voters approved a ballot initiative allowing the state to expand Medicaid. Gov. Paul LePage (R) has refused to implement it, but a new governor replacing LePage after he leaves office in the face of term limits could be more willing to accept the results.

If even a few more states choose to expand Medicaid, “it starts to get to be enough critical mass nationwide that I would hope it just makes it a permanent part of the Medicaid program,” Fishman said.

But advocates worry that unprecedented flexibilities offered by the Trump administration will allow states to completely change the nature of Medicaid.

Administration officials have said they will allow governors to add work requirements, time limits and lockout periods for people who can’t pay their premiums on time.

Advocates say adding such provisions would further the Republican case that Medicaid is a welfare program, instead of health insurance.

“Whether you support them or not, those activities are not the function of a Medicaid program,” Mann said. “People can differ as to the efficacy of those efforts, but few people can accurately say that’s what health insurance ought to be doing.”

In the coming months, the Trump administration could approve waivers allowing states like Arkansas, Arizona, Indiana and Kentucky to impose work requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries.

Arizona also wants to impose a five-year limit on Medicaid eligibility for the “able-bodied.”

States that want work requirements have acknowledged that tens or even hundreds of thousands of people would lose Medicaid coverage under the proposals.

Prior to ObamaCare, Medicaid mainly covered children, the disabled and pregnant women. The law’s optional expansion allowed many more low-income people to become eligible, leading to criticisms from conservatives that “able-bodied” beneficiaries were essentially freeloading off the government.

Alker said that’s the wrong way to look at it.

“[Medicaid is] predominantly run by managed care insurance companies, so that kind of rhetoric is a gross oversimplification,” Alker said. “But people who want to cut it, they tend to focus on one population.”

The Leap to Single-Payer: What Taiwan Can Teach

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The Leap to Single-Payer: What Taiwan Can Teach

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Taiwan is proof that a country can make a swift and huge change to its health care system, even in the modern day.

The United States, in part because of political stalemate, in part because it has been hemmed in by its history, has been unable to be as bold.

Singapore, which we wrote about in October, tinkers with its health care system all the time. Taiwan, in contrast, revamped its top to bottom.

Less than 25 years ago, Taiwan had a patchwork system that included insurance provided for those who worked privately or for the government, or for trade associations involving farmers or fishermen. Out-of-pocket payments were high, and physicians practiced independently. In March 1995, all that changed.

After talking to experts from all over the world, Taiwan chose William Hsiao, a professor of economics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, to lead a task force to design a new system. Uwe Reinhardt, a longtime Princeton professor, also contributed significantly to the effort. (Mr. Reinhardt, who died last month, was a panelist on an Upshot article comparing international health systems in a tournament format.) The task force studied countries like the United States, Britain, France, Canada, Germany and Japan.

In the end, Taiwan chose to adopt a single-payer system like that found in Medicare or in Canada, not a government-run system like Britain’s. At first, things did not go as well as hoped. Although the country had been planning the change for years, it occurred quite quickly after democracy was established in the early 1990s. The system, including providers and hospitals, was caught somewhat off guard, and many felt that they had not been adequately prepared. The public, however, was much happier about the change.

Today, most hospitals in Taiwan remain privately owned, mostly nonprofit. Most physicians are still either salaried or self-employed in practices.

The health insurance Taiwan provides is comprehensive. Both inpatient and outpatient care are covered, as well as dental care, over-the-counter drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. It’s much more thorough than Medicare is in the United States.

Access is also quite impressive. Patients can choose from pretty much any provider or therapy. Wait times are short, and patients can go straight to specialty care without a referral.

Premiums are paid for by the government, employers and employees. The share paid by each depends on income, with the poor paying a much smaller percentage than the wealthy.

Taiwan’s cost of health care rose faster than inflation, as it has in other countries. In 2001, co-payments for care were increased, and in 2002, they went up again, along with premiums. In those years, the government also began to reduce reimbursement to providers after a “reasonable” number of patients was seen. It also began to pay less for drugs. Finally, it began to institute global budgets — caps on the total amount paid for all care — in the hope of squeezing providers into becoming more efficient.

Relative to the United States and some other countries, Taiwan devotes less of its economy to health care. In the early 2000s, it was spending 5.4 percent of G.D.P., and by 2014 that number had risen to 6.2 percent. By comparison, countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development spend on average more than 9 percent of G.D.P. on health care, and the United States spends about twice that.

After the most recent premium increase in 2010 (only the second in Taiwan’s history), the system began to run surpluses.

This is not to say the system is perfect. Taiwan has a growing physician shortage, and physicians complain about being paid too little to work too hard (although doctors in nearly every system complain about that). Taiwan has an aging population and a low birthrate, which will push the total costs of care upward with a smaller base from which to collect tax revenue.

Taiwan has done a great job at treating many communicable diseases, but more chronic conditions are on the rise. These include cancer and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, all of which are expensive to treat.

The health system’s quality could also be better. Although O.E.C.D. data aren’t available for the usual comparisons, Taiwan’s internal data show that it has a lot of room for improvement, especially relating to cancer and many aspects of primary care. Taiwan could, perhaps, fix some of this by spending more.

As we showed in our battle of the health care systems, though, complaints can be made about every system, and the one in the United States is certainly no exception. For a country that spends relatively little on health care, Taiwan is accomplishing quite a lot.

Comparing Taiwan and the United States may appear to be like comparing apples and aardvarks. One is geographically small, with only 23 million citizens, while the other is vast and home to well above 300 million. But Taiwan is larger than most states, and a number of states — including Vermont, Colorado and California — have made pushes for single-payer systems in the last few years. These have not succeeded, however, perhaps because there is less tolerance for disruption in the United States than the Taiwanese were willing to accept.

Regardless of which health system you might prefer, Taiwan’s ambition showed what’s possible. It took five years of planning and two years of legislative efforts to accomplish its transformation. That’s less time than the United States has spent fighting over the Affordable Care Act, with much less to show for it.

 

Five key decisions for the GOP on healthcare

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http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/366528-five-key-decisions-for-the-gop-on-healthcare

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Republicans have repealed ObamaCare’s individual mandate, but they still have a number of decisions to make on health care in the coming year.

Even without the unpopular mandate, the health care law is still largely in effect, with nearly 9 million people enrolled in private plans for 2018.

And beyond ObamaCare, Republicans could seek action on entitlement reform and drug pricing in 2018.

Here are five things to watch out for.

Will Republicans try again to repeal ObamaCare? 

After Republicans failed to act on a seven-year promise to repeal and replace ObamaCare, they assured voters they would return to the issue after passing tax reform.

But now that the tax law is on the books, it’s far from certain that Republicans will make another run at the Affordable Care Act. With the GOP’s Senate majority set to shrink in January, repeal might be off the table for now.

“Well, we obviously were unable to completely repeal and replace with a 52-48 Senate,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told NPR on Thursday.

“We’ll have to take a look at what that looks like with a 51-49 Senate. But I think we’ll probably move on to other issues.”

But McConnell could face pressure from more conservative Senate Republicans — and possibly from the House — to revisit health care, no matter how steep the challenge.

“To those who believe — including Senate Republican leadership — that in 2018 there will not be another effort to Repeal and Replace Obamacare — well you are sadly mistaken,” Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), author of the most recent repeal bill, tweeted last week.

Will Congress act to stabilize ObamaCare? 

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) have been pushing for a vote on two bipartisan bills to stabilize ObamaCare’s insurance markets, but those efforts were pushed off until next year.

McConnell assured Collins the bills would be attached to a “must-pass” bill by the end of 2017, but that changed as Republicans scrambled to avoid a government shutdown.

Now Senate Republicans are looking to attach the ObamaCare bills to the long-term spending bill that is expected to come up for a vote in January.

But passing the ObamaCare bills is far from certain, with House Republicans demanding the inclusion of Hyde Amendment language to prevent any federal money from going to plans that cover abortions.

House Republicans have also been critical of the overall substance of the bills, arguing they’re a “bail out” of a failing law.

It’s unclear whether House Republicans would support a spending bill that contains the ObamaCare bills, but many have said they definitely won’t if the abortion language isn’t included.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.C.) said Senate Republicans are looking at ways to resolve the issue, and Alexander said he’s optimistic about the bills passing in January.

“We have the president’s renewed interest, more interest from the House, Senate McConnell has renewed his commitment to schedule it and support it, so I think it’s just a matter of when we come back, putting out ideas together and finding a way to get it done,” Alexander told reporters.

Will Republicans try to tackle entitlements?

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has said Republicans should move to entitlement reform next year, citing the need to address the nation’s red ink.

“We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” Ryan told the Ross Kaminsky radio talk show earlier this month.

While there’s broad support in the GOP for taking up welfare reform, changes to entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security could be a tough sell.

McConnell has noted that a slim Republican majority in the Senate could put broader entitlement reform out of reach.

“The sensitivity of entitlements is such that you almost have to have a bipartisan agreement in order to achieve a result,” McConnell said at a press conference Friday.

“The only time we’ve been able to do that is on a bipartisan basis, and it was a long time ago.”

Entitlement cuts could also be politically dangerous for Republicans leading into the 2018 midterms.

Will Trump try to help ObamaCare? 

Democrats have accused the Trump administration of trying to sabotage ObamaCare by slashing the law’s advertising and outreach budget and cutting open enrollment in half.

But those actions seemed to have a minimal effect on enrollment. The administration said 8.8 million people signed up for coverage in the exchanges this year, which is only a slight drop from the 9.2 million people who signed up last year.

Democrats say these numbers show the resiliency of the law.

“[The] enrollment numbers make clear that the American people want access to high quality, affordable health insurance coverage, and they want Congress and the Administration to stop playing games with our health care system,” said Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.Y.), ranking member of the House Energy & Commerce Committee.

Trump indicated on Tuesday that his administration still intends on repealing and replacing ObamaCare, however.

“Based on the fact that the very unfair and unpopular individual mandate has been terminated as part of our tax cut bill, which essentially repeals (over time) ObamaCare, the Democrats & Republicans will eventually come together and develop a great new HealthCare plan!”

Will Trump take action on drug prices? 

Trump came out swinging against drug companies when he took office in January, declaring that the industry is getting away with murder, but so far has taken little action on drug prices.

The administration has been preparing an executive order aimed at lowering drug prices since the summer, but critics argue the order would be friendly to drug companies.

Trump has also abandoned campaign promises to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices and expand importation of cheaper drugs from other countries.

However, Alex Azar, a former drug executive and Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, has said that addressing h drug prices will be one of his top priorities if he’s confirmed.

“I believe I can hit the ground running to work with you and others to identify solutions here,” Azar told senators during his confirmation hearing.

 

Health insurer Oscar nears $1 billion in revenue

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https://www.axios.com/oscar-2518896548.html

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Oscar, the healthcare insurance upstart co-founded by Joshua Kushner, tells Axios that it is expecting to generate nearly $1 billion in premium revenue for 2018. That’s up from “more than $300 million” in 2017 premium revenue. It also says that its insurance underwriting business is profitable for the first time, although the overall company remains in the red.

Why it matters: Oscar continues to grow, despite having originally launched to provide health insurance to individuals under an Affordable Care Act that the Trump Administration has been slowly dismantling.

  • More numbers: The company expects around 250,000 members in the individual markets, including in New York and California where open enrollment continues, representing around a 2.5x increase over last year, and doesn’t include Oscar’s recent expansion into employer plans.

Oscar CEO Mario Schlosser tells Axios that he isn’t too concerned about how the new tax bill repeals the ACA’s individual mandate, saying that much of the early instability has dissipated:

“It took a while to figure out how things work, but a lot of people now just have come around to thinking it’s smart to have health insurance. The loss of the mandate will have some impact on some states around country, but it won’t affect the overall stability of the individual markets.”

Oscar’s big marketing pitch is that it leverages technology to provide a more efficient healthcare experience, through such techniques as tele-medicine (25% of Oscar members have used it) and concierge teams that include both nurses and “care guides” (70% have used). It has taken steps to apply this tech-centric approach to the Medicare Advantage market, but tells Axios that it has slowed down those efforts a bit (i.e., no 2018 launch).

 

Moody’s: 3 ways the GOP tax bill will hurt nonprofit hospitals

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https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/moody-s-3-ways-the-gop-tax-bill-will-hurt-nonprofit-hospitals.html

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The Republicans’ tax overhaul plan, which is expected to become law soon, has negative credit implications for nonprofit hospitals and health systems, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Here are three ways the tax bill will hurt nonprofit hospitals and health systems.

1. The tax bill will repeal the ACA’s individual insurance mandate. This will cause the uninsured population to rise and raise uncompensated care costs, which will negatively affect healthcare organizations’ operating margins and cash flow, according to Moody’s.

2. The tax plan’s limits on tax-exempt refundings is negative for all issuers of tax-exempt debt, including nonprofit hospitals and health systems, as these financings have been used to reduce long-term borrowing costs and take advantage of lower interest rates, according to Moody’s.

3. The tax bill will slash the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. This change has negative implications for nonprofit hospitals and health systems, as it “makes tax-exempt bonds a less attractive investment for banks and other financial institutions, which will weaken demand, especially for direct bank loans and private placements,” according to Moody’s.

No, Trump Hasn’t ‘Essentially Repealed Obamacare’

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https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/20/trump-obamacare-mandate-repeal-taxes-216125

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Killing the mandate doesn’t gut the health care law. Most likely, it will muddle along, because the rest of it is broadly popular.

In July and again in September, Republicans narrowly failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act. But their newly passed tax legislation included a provision getting rid of Obamacare’s mandate requiring Americans to buy insurance, and President Donald Trump immediately declared victory in the partisan health care wars. “When the individual mandate is being repealed, that means Obamacare is being repealed,” he crowed at a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. “We have essentially repealed Obamacare.”

Well, no. The individual mandate is only part of Obamacare. It wasn’t even included in the original health care plan that Barack Obama unveiled during the 2008 campaign. The mandate did become an important element of Obamacare, and the only specific element that a majority of the public opposed. But the more generous elements of the program—like a major expansion of Medicaid, significant government subsidies for private insurance premiums, and strict protections for pre-existing conditions—are still popular, and still the law of the land.

“The death of Obamacare has been exaggerated,” says Larry Levitt, who oversees health reform studies at the Kaiser Family Foundation. “Eliminating the mandate creates uncertainty, but all the benefits for people remain in place.”

The Republican ecstasy and Democratic gloom over the death of the mandate reflects the most consistent misperception over the seven-plus years of Affordable Care Act debates, the incorrect assumption that the “Obamacare exchanges,” where Americans can buy private insurance, are synonymous with Obamacare. The vast majority of Americans who get their coverage through Medicare, Medicaid or their employers shouldn’t be affected. Yes, killing the mandate could cause problems for the remaining 6 percent of Americans who have to buy insurance on the open market, but nearly half will remain eligible for subsidies that would insulate them from any premium hikes.

Repealing the tax penalties for Americans who don’t buy insurance would not repeal Obamacare’s perks for Americans who do—like the ban on annual and lifetime caps that insurers previously used to cut off coverage for their sickest customers, or the provision allowing parents to keep their children on their plans until they turn 26. And it would not repeal Obamacare’s “delivery reforms” that are quietly transforming the financial incentives in the medical system, gradually shifting reimbursements to reward the quality rather than quantity of care. The growth of U.S. health care costs has slowed dramatically since the launch of Obamacare, and the elimination of the mandate should not significantly affect that trend.

In fact, during the 2008 campaign, Obama was the only Democratic candidate whose health plan did not include a mandate, because he was the only Democratic candidate who thought the main problem with health care was its cost. “It’s just too expensive,” he explained at an Iowa event in May 2007. Insurance premiums had almost doubled during the George W. Bush era, and Obama believed that was the reason so many Americans were uninsured. He doubted it would be worth the political heartburn to try to force people to buy insurance they couldn’t afford.

But Obama eventually embraced the argument that a mandate was necessary to ensure that young and healthy Americans bought insurance. The fear was that otherwise, insurance markets dominated by the old and sick (who would enjoy the law’s new protections for pre-existing conditions) would have produced even higher premiums, and might scare insurers away from serving Americans who don’t get coverage through their jobs or the government. Killing the mandate will be a step in that direction, boosting Trump’s heighten-the-contradictions effort to sabotage the functioning of Obamacare to build support for a more sweeping repeal.

That effort has already produced some damaging results for the exchanges. Insurers have increased their premiums for 2018, repeatedly citing uncertainty over Trump’s efforts to blow up Obamacare as well as his decision to cut off promised payments to insurers who cover lower-income families. Several insurers left the exchanges even before the elimination of the mandate, and others could follow.

But the widespread warnings that wide swaths of America would have no insurers on the exchanges were wrong; there are zero “bare counties” with no insurers for 2018. And a Kaiser review found the exchanges have gotten more profitable for insurers this year,despite Trump’s efforts to damage them. This year’s enrollment period appears to have gone fairly well even though the Trump administration shortened it by half and slashed its promotional budget.

The fear is that eliminating the mandate could produce a “death spiral” for the exchanges, where higher premiums scare away healthier customers, leading to even higher premiums and even sicker customers—until eventually,the insurers decide to bail. It could also encourage insurers to try to lure healthier customers with cheaper but skimpier plans that don’t provide protections for pre-existing conditions, since those customers would no longer have to pay a tax penalty.

But it is also possible that younger and healthier customers who initially bought insurance because they were required to do so will now buy insurance because they want to; surveys show that more than 75 five percent of Americans covered on the exchanges are happy with their coverage. And as a political matter, repealing the unpopular mandate could make it even harder for Republicans to pass legislation repealing insurance protections, Medicaid expansions and the rest of Obamacare, because the rest of Obamacare is popular. It’s not surprising that Republicans managed to kill the law’s vegetables, but it won’t be as easy to kill dessert.

Trump thinks congressional Democrats will soon be begging him to come up with a replacement for Obamacare, and even many Republicans who don’t embrace that fantasy believe the demise of the mandate will ratchet up pressure for a permanent solution to a seven-year political war. It could happen. But there hasn’t been a lot of bipartisanship in Washington lately, and after the Doug Jones upset in Alabama, it seems unlikely that a Senate with one fewer Republican will be more amenable to a Republican-only repeal bill.

The most likely outcome seems to be at least a few more years of Obamacare muddling through, and at least a few more years of Obamacare political warfare.

 

AP-NORC Poll: Health Care Is the Issue That Won’t Go Away

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https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/12/21/us/politics/ap-us-ap-poll-health-care.html

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As President Donald Trump completes his first year in office, Americans are increasingly concerned about health care, and their faith that government can fix it has fallen.

A new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 48 percent named health care as a top problem for the government to focus on in the next year, up 17 points in the last two years.

The poll allows Americans to name up to five priorities and found a wide range of top concerns, including taxes, immigration and the environment. But aside from health care, no single issue was named by more than 31 percent.

And 7 in 10 of those who named health care as a top problem said they had little to no confidence that government can improve matters. The public was less pessimistic in last year’s edition of the poll, when just over half said they lacked confidence in the problem-solving ability of lawmakers and government institutions.

“We are way up there on the cost, and as far as giving good health care, we are way down,” said Rebekah Bustamante of San Antonio, a retired medical imaging technician. “Now in health care, you’re a number.”

Bustamante said she voted for Trump, but “he’s learning on the job, and he’s got a long way to go.”

Trump initially promised his own plan that would deliver “insurance for everybody” and “great” health care, “much less expensive and much better.” But the White House never released a health care proposal from the president.

GOP legislation to repeal and replace former President Barack Obama’s health care law failed in Congress, although the tax bill scraps the Obama requirement that most people get health insurance. Bloodied on both sides, Republicans and Democrats seem to have battled to an uneasy draw on health care.

Meanwhile, conflicting policy signals from Washington, including an abrupt White House decision to cancel insurer subsidies, roiled insurance markets. Premiums on health plans purchased by individuals jumped by double digits. Progress reducing the number of uninsured stalled, and one major survey found an uptick this year.

“There is zero bipartisanship, and it’s frustrating,” said Eric Staab, a high school teacher from Topeka, Kansas. “It seems like we have thrown everything at this dartboard, and nothing is improving the coverage.”

Rumblings of discontent have political repercussions for next year’s midterm elections and the presidential contest in 2020, said Robert Blendon, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who follows opinion trends on health care.

“It’s the issue that won’t go away,” said Blendon. “Given the news cycle, taxes should be first, the economy should be second, and this health care thing should be buried.”

Three in 10 Americans listed taxes among their top priorities, about double the percentage who said that last year. About a quarter mentioned immigration, and just under 2 in 10 mentioned environmental issues and education. Meanwhile, concerns about unemployment plunged to 14 percent, about half the mentions as last year.

Health care was by far the top issue mentioned by Democrats and independents. Republicans were about equally likely to mention immigration, health care and taxes.

Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they have little to no confidence that the government will make progress on health care, 84 percent to 57 percent.

The reason health care doesn’t fade away is that costs aren’t getting any more manageable, said some people who took part in the AP-NORC survey.

Bustamante said she is planning a trip to Mexico for some dental work, because she can obtain quality service for much less there. “Thank God I live in Texas, where getting to Mexico isn’t that far away,” she said. “But everybody doesn’t have that option.”

ShyJuan Clemons of Merrillville, Indiana, said he’s currently uninsured because his previous health plan was costing too much money for the benefit he got from it. He faced his insurance plan’s annual deductible when he went to the doctor, so he’d wind up paying out-of-pocket for visits, on top of premiums.

“You are not constantly worried about taxes, but you are constantly worried about health care — be it major or minor,” said Clemons, a personal care attendant who works with disabled people. “You catch a cold, and you just think about it in passing — ‘I hope it doesn’t develop into a problem.'”

Clemons, a Democrat, said he’s disappointed that Trump and Republicans in Congress seem to be trying to tear down “Obamacare” instead of building on it. “I would like to see them make the thing run smoothly so we can do better, instead of just trying to cripple it,” he said.

The lack of confidence in the ability of government to find pragmatic solutions extended to other problems in the AP-NORC poll, including climate change, immigration, and terrorism.

Just 23 percent said that Trump has kept the promises he made while running for president, while 30 percent said he’s tried and failed, and 45 percent said he has not kept his promises at all.

Nearly 2 in 3 said they were pessimistic about the state of politics in the U.S. About half were downbeat about the nation’s system of government, and 55 percent said America’s best days are behind.

 

Despite Compressed Sign-Up Period, ACA Enrollment Nearly Matches Last Year’s

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https://khn.org/news/despite-compressed-sign-up-period-aca-enrollment-nearly-matches-last-years/

A day after President Donald Trump said the Affordable Care Act “has been repealed,” officials reported that 8.8 million Americans have signed up for coverage on the federal insurance exchange in 2018 — nearly reaching 2017’s number in half the sign-up time.

That total is far from complete. Enrollment is still open in parts of seven states, including Florida and Texas, that use the federal healthcare.gov exchange but were affected by hurricanes earlier this year. The numbers released Thursday by the Department of Health and Human Services also did not include those who signed up between midnight Dec. 15 and 3 a.m. ET on Dec. 16, the final deadline for 2018 coverage, as well as those who could not finish enrolling before the deadline and left their phone number for a call back.

And enrollment has not yet closed in 11 states — including California and New York — plus Washington, D.C., that run their own insurance exchanges. Those states are expected to add several million more enrollees.

The robust numbers for sign-ups on the federal exchange — 96 percent of last year’s total — surprised both supporters and opponents of the health law, who almost universally thought the numbers would be lower. Not only was the sign-up period reduced by half, but the Trump administration dramatically cut funding for advertising and enrollment aid. Republicans in Congress spent much of the year trying to repeal and replace the law, while Trump repeatedly declared the health law dead, leading to widespread confusion.

On the other hand, a Trump decision aimed at hurting the exchanges may have backfired. When he canceled federal subsidies to help insurers offer discounts to their lowest-income customers, it produced some surprising bargains for those who qualify for federal premium help. That may have boosted enrollment.

“Enrollment defied expectations and the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine it,” said Lori Lodes, a former Obama administration health official who joined with other Obama alumni to try to promote enrollment in the absence of federal outreach efforts. “The demand for affordable coverage speaks volumes — proving, yet again, the staying power of the marketplaces.”

“The ACA is not repealed and not going away,” tweeted Andy Slavitt, who oversaw the ACA under President Barack Obama.

The tax bill passed by Congress this week repeals the fines for those who fail to obtain health coverage, but those fines do not go away until 2019. Still, that has added to the confusion for 2018 coverage.

And it remains unclear whether Congress will make another attempt to repeal the law in 2018.

“I think we’ll probably move on to other issues,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in an interview Friday with NPR.