On July 1st, Georgia will launch its Pathways to Coverage program, which partially expands its Medicaid program to enroll individuals with incomes up to 100 percent of the federal poverty line (FPL), but only if they demonstrate at least 80 hours a month of work, education, job training, or community service.
This expansion is only projected to extend Medicaid coverage to an additional 50K state residents, far short of the 400K that full Medicaid expansion (without work requirements, to individuals earning up to138 percent of the FPL) would have covered. Georgia’s plan was approved by the Trump administration in 2020, but the Biden administration rescinded its waiver prior to implementation. Georgia then sued the Biden administration, and a Federal District Court sided with the state, allowing the partial expansion with work requirements to proceed. The Biden administration chose not to appeal.
The Gist: Though Georgia’s implementation is more limited in scope compared with other states which are currently pursuing Medicaid work requirements, Georgia sets a precedent to motivate those states that are looking to pursue similar strategies.
Research has shown that most adults on Medicaid who do not face barriers to work are already working,and that the cost of systems to monitor beneficiary work status likely offsets any savings in reduced Medicaid spending.
The burden of having to report work status is onerous for potential Medicaid enrollees, discouraging some from seeking coverage altogether.
With more than two in five American adults considered obese, the potential for GLP-1 agonist drugs like Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro to revolutionize obesity treatment seems limitless.
In the graphic above, we looked to quantify how much these drugs could potentially change healthcare expenditures and demand. Using Wegovy’s list price of $1.3K per month, a GLP-1 drug prescription for every obese American adult would cost as much as $1.3T annually—30 percent of total US healthcare expenditures.
Analyst projections of GLP-1 drugs forecast revenue to grow by over 5x by 2028, from $3 billion to $16 billion annually. While it’s unlikely that every overweight American will access the drugs, growing use of GLP-1 agonists will likely drive down obesity rates, and downstream care demand could shift in expected and unpredictable ways. Demand for weight-related surgeries, including joint replacements and bariatric surgery, will likely drop. Incidence of chronic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease could also drop, potentially raising life expectancy.
But even if we’re living longer thanks to the new drugs, we’ll still die of something eventually: expect a secondary rise in cancers and Alzheimer’s, as well as surging demand for eldercare. While these effects will take years to materialize, leaders planning for long-term care needs would be wise to consider scenarios where these and other potential “blockbuster” drugs may disrupt demand patterns and spending for a wide range of services.
On Tuesday, the US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF), which is appointed by an arm of the Department of Health and Human Services, finalized guidance that all adults ages 19 to 64 should be routinely screened for anxiety, even in the absence of symptoms. Last fall, USPSTF proposed a draft version of this guidance, and also finalized its recommendation that children and adolescents ages 8-18 be screened for anxiety. The task force found that anxiety screening for seniors, as well as suicide-risk screening for all adults, lacked conclusive evidence of effectiveness.
The Gist: Policymakers and providers are right to respond to the nationwide increase in anxiety and depression brought on by the pandemic, and regular screenings will help quantify the scope of a problem we face.
However, given the pervasive undersupply of behavioral health practitioners, widespread screenings will only lead to better care if access to treatment can be scaled.
Solutions that take advantage of telemedicine’s success in behavioral health, combined with the tools—and time—to manage mild anxiety in the primary care setting, are critical to provide support for a coming wave of newly identified patients.
This month, a panel of expert advisers recommended the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grant full approval to Leqembi, a drug developed by Eisai and Biogen that targets amyloid plaques in the brain that are linked to the development of Alzheimer’s.
The drug was found to slow cognitive decline in patients by 27 percent over 18 months, though not without some serious side effects, including brain swelling and bleeding. While Leqembi received accelerated FDA approval in January 2023, it is now likely to become the first Alzheimer’s drug that slows the progression of the disease to secure full FDA approval. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently announced that it intends to cover this new class of Alzheimer’s drugs, as long as prescribing physicians participate in patient registries designed to continue collecting data about the drugs and their efficacy. The FDA is expected to make a final decision on Leqembi by early July.
The Gist: In addition to risks of patient harm, much of the controversy around Leqembi surrounds its $27K list price. Payers, especially Medicare, are worried that it will balloon spending while exposing patients to unaffordable cost-sharing.
With the number of Americans diagnosed annually with Alzheimer’s and other dementias projected to double by 2050, Leqembi has the potential both to help millions and to drive unsustainable spending patterns, and it will be difficult to achieve the former without the latter.
But with full approval likely, a coming frenzy of investor activity to launch memory treatment centers for drug infusion services, capitalizing on the expected huge demand for the drug, seems inevitable.
Billionaire investor Charlie Munger has been vocal in expressing his concerns about U.S. healthcare, stating that it is “shot through with rampant waste” and has become “immoral.”
Munger says there are substantial problems that need to be addressed, including the presence of unnecessary costs and inefficiencies that plague the medical field.
Drawing a vivid analogy at a Daily Journal Annual Meeting, Munger compared the experience of a dying old person in many American hospitals to that of a carcass on the plains of Africa. He painted a bleak picture, describing how vultures, jackals, hyenas and other scavengers swarm around the helpless creature.
In an attempt to address these issues, Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon.com Inc., and JPMorgan Chase joined forces to establish Haven Healthcare a venture that despite their combined efforts failed to achieve its objectives.
Some startups have seen success where they failed. iRemedy, for example, is a startup using artificial intelligence (AI) technology, that offers a solution to the healthcare system’s challenges through its large procurement marketplace. Its platform streamlines the supply chain, enabling faster and more affordable access to lifesaving supplies for doctors, hospitals and healthcare providers.
Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., criticized the high costs and inefficiencies in medical care as both expensive and wrong. In a CNBC interview, he went on to claim that some medical providers artificially prolong death to increase their profits.
With over 35 years of experience as board chairman of Good Samaritan Hospital in Los Angeles, Munger expressed his belief that certain healthcare practices are absurd.
“A lot of the medical care we do deliver is wrong — so expensive and wrong. It’s ridiculous,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
In 2018, Munger predicted that when Democrats gain control of all three branches of government, there will be a push for a single-payer healthcare system. He highlighted the need for a complete change forced by the government because of the severity of the issues in the current system. He suggested that a universal healthcare system with an opt-out option would be a reasonable solution.
Warren Buffett, Munger’s longtime investing partner, shares similar concerns regarding healthcare spending, referring to it as a “tapeworm on the economic system.” Buffett believes the private sector can make substantial contributions to cost-reduction efforts.
A recent investigation conducted by Kaiser Health News-NPR shed light on the alarming reality of medical debt in the United States. The study reveals that over 100 million Americans are burdened with medical debt, placing a significant financial strain on their lives. Further analysis of the data reveals that approximately one-fourth of American adults carrying this debt owe more than $5,000.
What makes this issue even more concerning is the fact that it is not primarily driven by a lack of insurance coverage. Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people grappling with medical debt are not uninsured. Instead, it is the problem of being underinsured that is prevalent.
Many people have health insurance plans that do not offer sufficient coverage, leaving them vulnerable to high out-of-pocket expenses and accumulating medical debt.
A majority of Americans with health insurance said they had encountered obstacles to coverage, including denied medical care, higher bills and a dearth of doctors in their plans, according to a new survey from KFF, a nonprofit health research group. As a result, some people delayed or skipped treatment.
Those who were most likely to need medical care — people who described themselves as in fair or poor health — reported more trouble; three-fourths of those receiving mental health treatment experienced problems.
“The consequences of care delayed and missed altogether because of the sheer complexity of the system are significant, especially for people who are sick,” said Drew Altman, the CEO of KFF, formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The survey also underscored the persistent problem of affordability as people struggled to pay their share of health care costs. About 40% of those surveyed said they had delayed or gone without care in the last year because of the expense. People in fair or poor health were more than twice as likely to report problems with paying medical bills than those in better health, and Black adults were more likely than white adults to indicate they had trouble.
Why It Matters: Delayed care can endanger health.
Nearly half of those who encountered a problem with their insurance said they could not satisfactorily resolve it. Some could not obtain the care they had sought, while others said they paid more than expected. Among the nearly 60% who reported difficulty with their insurance coverage, 15% said their health had declined.
“This survey shows it’s not enough to just get a card in your pocket — the insurance has to work or it’s not exactly coverage,” said Karen Pollitz, the co-director for KFF’s patient and consumer protections program.
People have a hard time understanding their coverage and benefits, with 30% or more reporting difficulty figuring out what they will be required to pay for care or what exactly their insurance will cover.
“Insurances are way more complicated than they should be,” said Amanda Parente, a 19-year-old college student in Nashville, Tennessee, who is covered under her mother’s employer plan. She was surprised to find that her out-of-pocket costs spiked recently when she sought treatment for strep throat. While she realized her copayments would be higher, “I guess we didn’t know how drastic it was going to be,” she said.
Background: Insurance coverage is confusing to everyone.
Navigating the intricacies of coverage and benefits were similar regardless of what kind of insurance people had. At least half of those surveyed with private coverage, through an employer, those with an “Obamacare” plan, or a government program like Medicare or Medicaid, said they experienced difficulties.
People might be unhappy with their coverage because they were already concerned about higher inflation and potential layoffs, said Christopher Lis, the managing director of global health care intelligence at J.D. Power, which found that consumer satisfaction with insurers had declined in a recent study. “We’ve got economic conditions that set the stage for concern around coverage and benefits,” he said.
Insurers say people generally report being happy with their plan, and 81% of those surveyed by KFF gave their insurance high ratings. “Health insurance providers are committed to improving access, affordability and convenience for all Americans and will continue to find innovative solutions to work toward this common goal,” said David Allen, a spokesperson for AHIP, a trade group that represents insurers.
What’s Next: How to haggle with insurers or appeal?
Also striking among the survey’s findings was how unaware people were about pursuing appeals of denied coverage and how to go about doing so.
“Most people don’t know who to call,” Pollitz said. Sixty percent of insured adults surveyed did not know they had a legal right to appeal, and about three-fourths said they did not know which government agency to contact for help, particularly respondents with private insurance.
State insurance regulators oversee fully insured policies sold to individuals and small businesses, and the federal Department of Labor has jurisdiction over employer-sponsored insurance.
Many of the problems people have with their insurance could be solved by enforcing existing rules, like federal regulations requiring private insurers to issue understandable explanations of benefits and to maintain accurate, current lists of doctors and hospitals within their networks.
Last week the Minnesota legislature passed a bill to initiate the creation of a public option health insurance plan available to state residents of all incomes. The bill funds an actuarial analysis of the policy and requires the state to apply for a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) waiver to begin implementation by 2027. The public option plan will build upon MinnesotaCare, a state health plan currently covering residents with incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty line.
The Gist: Minnesota joins Washington, Colorado, and Nevada as the fourth state to authorize a public option health plan. But unlike these other three states, whose public option programs rely on private payers to manage risk and administration with tighter price controls, Minnesota intends to create a “true” public option in which the government competes directly with private payers.
Analysis funded by a hospital and insurance trade group found that a public option could reduce Minnesota hospital revenues by more than $2B over 10 years, while only lowering the uninsured rate by half a percentage point.
Though Minnesota lawmakers were more concerned with lowering healthcare spending and improving health insurance affordability for state residents, the success of the program will depend in part on how it negotiates with providers, who justifiably fear a worsening payer mix that further threatens margins.
On April 1st, Medicaid’s pandemic-era continuous enrollment policy began to sunset, kicking off a 14-month window for states to reassess their Medicaid rolls. In this week’s graphic, we highlight new Congressional Budget Office projections showing the impact of Medicaid redeterminations on insurance coverage rates over the next decade for the under-65 population.
The Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage rate is expected to drop from 31 percent of all Americans under 65 in 2023, to 27 percent in 2024.
Meanwhile, after reaching an all-time low in 2023,the under-65 uninsured rate is projected to surpass nine percent in 2024 and climb to over 10 percent by 2033.
While over 15M Americans are expected to lose Medicaid coverage during redeterminations, a majority of those disenrolled will gain health insurance either through an employer-sponsored or non-group plan.
But over 6M people, nearly 40 percent of those losing Medicaid coverage, are projected to become uninsured, erasing nearly half the progress the country has made since 2019 at lowering the uninsured rate.
Last week, Marlee Stark and I published an op-ed in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette on why the Arkansas Department of Human Services (DHS) should press pause on its Medicaid unwinding process. Earlier this month, DHS released its first report laying out how many people lost coverage in April, as the state resumed its redetermination process.
As we write,
According to DHS’ recent report, over 50,000 people were disenrolled for procedural reasons, like failure to return paperwork or requested information, or because the state didn’t have their correct address on file. Only 15 percent of those who were disenrolled were confirmed truly ineligible or said they no longer needed their coverage, likely because they acquired another source of coverage during the pandemic.
In our piece, we argue that DHS should take a look at why so many people are losing coverage even though they may still be eligible—and outline some of the consequences the state may face if it chooses not to do so.
A surge in the uninsured population from Medicaid redetermination could swamp some health systems that struggled to stay afloat during the pandemic. But experts say it could also translate into a financial boost for networks, if enough individuals find new sources of coverage.
Why it matters:
Even the temporary loss of coverage as states unwind their COVID-era Medicaid enrollment requirements means more people will go without checkups and other primary care, increasing the likelihood they’ll wait until they’re sick to seek help.
A key question is how many of the disenrolled will find new arrangements through workplace insurance or subsidized Affordable Care Act plans, both of which pay providers at higher rates than Medicaid.
Driving the news:
More than 170,000 people lost their Medicaid coverage in four states in April, and it’s not clear from state data how many of those people found new arrangements, reapplied successfully for Medicaid or remain uninsured.
An estimated 17 million children and adults could lose Medicaid coverage this year, after pandemic-era protections are rolled back, per a recent KFF survey.
Trinity Health, an 88-hospital health system operating in 26 states, estimates that Medicaid redetermination could result in a loss of $70 million to $90 million if disenrolled people don’t find other arrangements and the system has to provide them with charity care.
“It’s painful to watch; it’s not good for people and for our communities and those who are most vulnerable,” Dan Roth, chief clinical officer at Trinity Health, told Axios.
Emergency departments could fill up quickly if enough people who delay care wait for a health crisis to get help, said Ben Finder, director of policy research and analysis at the American Hospital Association.
He said other patients could cut pills in half or otherwise make medications last longer, “which can create cascading problems for folks.”
What we’re watching:
Redeterminations could change the payer mix in a revenue-positive way if patients go from Medicaid to employer-sponsored or ACA plans.
One Urban Institute report estimates that as many as 10.5 million patients could shift from Medicaid to employer-sponsored coverage or a marketplace plan.
This could boost payments to hospitals significantly, per Duane Wright, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, since commercial payment rates for hospital services are on average 223% higher than Medicare payments.
Zoom in:
Providers might be the first ones to inform patients who don’t know that their coverage has been terminated when they come in seeking care.
Health systems can create special teams to proactively reach out to Medicaid patients before they even come to the hospital, said Karen Shields, chief client engagement officer at Gainwell and former deputy director at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
“There is a moral and financial imperative for us to be good at this,” Shields told Axios.
The bottom line:
Most health systems have bounced back from a shaky 2022. But redeterminations, combined with inflation, supply chain problems and staffing shortages, could prove too much, especially during the colder months when respiratory viruses proliferate.
“Everyone is holding their breath watching for how this unfolds in each state,” Finder told Axios.
HENRY KOTULA 