The individual market will thrive in the long run

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Not since the first year of the Affordable Care Act has there been so much uncertainty at the start of an open enrollment period. How many Americans will sign up for health coverage? As experts weigh the uncertain impact of the Trump administration’s last-minute policy moves, estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and Urban Institute range from nearly one million fewer Americans with coverage to at least 600,000 more.
As co-founders of Oscar Health, an insurance startup that will be signing up Americans for individual plans across six states this year, we anticipate the Trump administration’s actions will simultaneously aid and undermine enrollment, thanks to the mixed impact of its political and policy changes.
The bottom line: It will be hard — after four years where tens of millions of Americans have gained access to health insurance — for the administration to erase the virtues of an individual market where consumers choose their health plan and no one is discriminated against based on health status. In fact, we project that Oscar will enroll significantly higher membership across our six states this year.

Here’s why we believe the administration’s actions will both help and hurt enrollment:

  • Plans will be more affordable for millions of Americans due to the seesaw impact of cuts to cost-sharing reduction subsidies, which will actually increase subsidies for many low-income consumers. And for the first time, the IRS will be aggressively enforcing the individual mandate.
  • On the other hand, the administration’s cuts to outreach and sporadic lip service to repealing the ACA do nothing to stanch growing confusion among shoppers.
The biggest threat to a strong open enrollment period is consumer confusion. That’s why our outreach this year, themed “Get Covered,” is so focused on educating Americans on the importance of health insurance. We were the first to launch our open enrollment ads six weeks ago. And when HealthCare.gov is down for maintenance every Sunday, Oscar will be up — consumers in our states will be able to get subsidized coverage on our website.
The big picture: Our optimism about the individual market, both this year and beyond, stems from our conviction that the near-term regulatory turbulence will pass and that the individual market will thrive in the long run.
That’s because health care costs are spiraling out of control across the board, even for Americans who get coverage through their jobs. This year, premium contributions for workers increased by 8.2%, while the employer’s share increased hardly at all: 1.4%.
But Americans see the full sticker price of care in the individual market alone. To ensure that consumers who are paying out of their own pockets can still afford coverage, it’s actually the insurers and providers in the individual market who are working hardest to control costs.
The details: Indeed, we are seeing signs that sustainable strategies to keep health care costs down for all Americans are being accelerated and proven out in the individual market.
  • Our health care system, for example, must move away from expensive emergency room visits and embrace virtual care. Prices to treat many of the same exact conditions in emergency rooms — where half of all care is delivered in the U.S. — can be orders of magnitude higher than telemedicine. In the first year of the ACA, Oscar introduced the first health insurance plan in the country with free, 24/7 access to telemedicine — and today, one in four Oscar members use it.
  • The individual market has also accelerated the shift away from big hospital networks in health insurance plans that drive prices up for all Americans. Narrow networks — which most ACA plans have — can result in lower premiums for consumers without impacting their quality of care.
  • The true innovation unlocked by the smaller networks, however, is one of integration by design. By making the insurer and hospital more dependent on each other, we can finally begin to remove the friction between your doctor and insurer to result in better, more coordinated care. For example, more than one third of all first-time doctor visits for our members are routed through our Oscar app and Concierge teams, to doctors that we partner with.
  • Hospitals are now looking to become your insurance company, too. Indeed, the Cleveland Clinic, a world-renowned hospital, is offering its own jointly-run plan with Oscar next year — in the individual market.
What’s next: There is no doubt that the individual market under the ACA has stumbled out of the gate, and is in need of some fixes. But America has seen rocky private insurance markets recover before.
Between 1998 and 2002, the number of private Medicare+Choice plans — what are now known as Medicare Advantage plans — was cut in half, to less than 150. After a legislative fix in 2003, the market recovered and matured, and seniors this year will have over 3,000 Medicare Advantage plans to choose from.
We’re confident the same can and will happen with the individual market.

What’s next for the ACA after Trump’s executive order

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President Trump couldn’t get Congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act, so he signed an executive order to encourage cheaper, less regulated insurance options — a change that critics fear will remove patient protections and undermine insurance markets. In response, Senators Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray have put forward a bipartisan bill designed to stabilize the ACA markets.

With the future of the ACA so fiercely contested, what impact will Trump’s executive order have on health insurance, and what action should Congress now take?

We asked five experts:

What Trump’s opioids plan will — and won’t — accomplish

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“We can be the generation that ends the opioid epidemic,” President Trump said yesterday. But there’s broad agreement among public health experts that the plan Trump released isn’t enough to get there.

The bottom line: The steps Trump announced yesterday will help, experts say. At a minimum, they won’t hurt. But they’re not enough. To tackle this public health crisis, the administration will need a more complete strategy and a lot of money.

What they’re saying:

  • “What’s missing is a comprehensive plan,” Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association, told me in an interview. “We’ve got to understand what success means.”
  • And with such a sprawling problem — one that reaches into health care, law enforcement, border control, labor and beyond — it would help to have someone focused on, and accountable for, the opioid response as a whole, Benjamin said.
  • “President Trump ran a business based on results. And so far, when it comes to the opioid epidemic, we have seen no results,” Shatterproof, a non-profit focused on addiction recovery, said in a statement.
  • Democrats and outside experts also emphasized that tackling the opioid epidemic will require more money — a lot of it.

The bright side: Trump’s actions might not be enough to tame the opioid crisis, but some of them could make a real difference.

  • Benjamin singled out expanded access to telemedicine, which could help people in rural areas gain quicker access to alternative pain treatments and addiction-recovery resources.
  • Loosening some regulatory restrictions will also help, according to public health experts, who said states’ hands have been tied as they try to redirect some of their own resources toward the problem.

CBO: Alexander-Murray Bill Would Trim Deficit, Keep Americans Insured

http://www.healthleadersmedia.com/health-plans/cbo-alexander-murray-bill-would-trim-deficit-keep-americans-insured?spMailingID=12228675&spUserID=MTY3ODg4NTg1MzQ4S0&spJobID=1262308916&spReportId=MTI2MjMwODkxNgS2#

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Is the Senate’s bipartisan compromise a workable fix or a ‘futile’ stopgap?

The bipartisan Alexander-Murray bill aimed at propping up the Affordable Care Act long enough for more substantial changes to be made is receiving a mixed response from lobbying groups and legislators, with some saying the bill only extends the life of a system that should be allowed to die.

Supporters say the bill would stabilize a volatile healthcare insurance market and preserve coverage for millions of Americans by continuing the cost sharing reduction (CSR) payments that health plans say are essential to helping them survive the ACA.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released an assessment Wednesday of the measure, finding that the deal would reduce the deficit by $3.8 billion over the next decade “without substantially changing the number of people with health insurance coverage, on net.” By contrast, earlier proposals to overhaul the ACA lost steam this year after CBO scores indicated that they would likely drive down the number of insured Americans by tens of millions.

“This nonpartisan analysis shows that our bill provides savings and ensures that funding two years of cost-sharing payments will benefit taxpayers and low-income Americans, not insurance companies,” Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) said Wednesday in a joint statement.

The CSR payments are intended to compensate insurers for providing coverage to lower-income consumers at below cost, and many say losing those payments will drive premiums higher and force some insurers to leave certain markets.

The compromise

Alexander and Murray developed the compromise bill in a bid to maintain the CSR subsidies that the Trump administration announced October 12 it would halt. The White House argues the CSRs were never authorized by Congress.

California is leading the charge in a legal challenge of President Trump’s stated intention to stop the payments, and the American Hospital Association, along with several other groups representing hospitals and other healthcare organizations, has filed a brief in support of the CSRs. But a federal judge in California sided Wednesday with the White House, ruling that the government doesn’t have to continue making the payments while states challenge the move in court, Reuters reported.

A bipartisan coalition of 24 senators—12 Republicans and 12 Democrats—have signed on to the healthcare legislation as cosponsors. Preserving the CSRs was a major priority of the Democrats, who compromised by agreeing to the Republican push to allow states to seek waivers of ACA requirements in their own states.

Ending the subsidies is expected to result in healthcare plans raising premiums even higher than otherwise planned. But the Alexander-Murray bill would authorize the CSR payments for two years and tie them to the changes in the ACA that give states more flexibility to seek waivers from the law’s requirements.

The proposed legislation also would allow insurance companies to sell less comprehensive plans to all consumers. Republican leaders say the allowance would make more affordable plans available, which, in turn, would encourage more people to buy coverage and help the insurers remain profitable.

“This is a first step: Improve it, and pass it sooner rather than later. Our purpose is to stabilize and then lower the cost of premiums in the individual insurance market for the year 2018 and 2019,” Alexander said.

Bill opposition

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) opposes the bill, saying it seeks to stabilize the insurance marketplace by forcing taxpayers to pay insurers to lower out-of-pocket costs for certain plan members.

Jane M. Orient, MD, executive director of AAPS, says the ACA actually makes insurance unaffordable.

“The deceitfully named Affordable Care Act did not just destabilize the individual insurance market; it destroyed it by outlawing genuine, voluntary insurance,” Orient says. “ACA-compliant plans are not true insurance, but coercive prepayment schemes for a federally dictated package that might be rejected by most subscribers.”

Orient says the bill being considered should be seen as an inappropriate form of legislative life support.

“Resuscitating Obamacare with Alexander-Murray would only prolong its dying process, but at great expense,” Orient says.

“Instead of running a futile Code Blue on Obamacare, we should be attending to American medicine and the American economy,” she adds.

Bill ‘provides critical stability’

American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) President Becky Parker, MD, FACEP, disagrees.

She says ACEP supports the Alexander-Murray legislation because it will provide critical stability for the individual health insurance marketplace, ensuring that millions of Americans have continued access to the health coverage they need and deserve.

“This legislation is a good-faith bipartisan effort that will help limit increases in health insurance premiums and preserve important consumer protections, such as the Essential Health Benefits package that includes emergency services, while also providing additional flexibility for states to implement innovative approaches to coverage,” Parker says.

HHS loses abortion lawsuit

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The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday rebuffed the Trump administration’s effort to stop an undocumented teenager from getting an abortion, likely bringing an end to one of the stranger legal sagas of the Trump administration so far.

The D.C. Circuit ordered the Health and Human Services Department to let the woman visit an abortion provider immediately, saying the department had violated her constitutional right to obtain an abortion by refusing to let her leave the detention facility where she’s being held.

Go deeperRead the court’s 6-3 decision.

What’s next: HHS can leave it here, or appeal to the Supreme Court.

Be smart: File this case as potential fodder for future Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Because the ruling came from the full D.C. Circuit, it involves several judges who could be future Supreme Court nominees. The majority included Judges Sri Srinivasan and Patricia Millett, both of whom are seen as potential SCOTUS contenders under a Democratic president.

Insurance and device taxes back on the chopping block

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It’s time once again for the insurance and medical device industries to ramp up their lobbying against the ACA’s taxes on their products. Congress has frozen both taxes, but both are set to kick in again next year.

  • A trio of Senate Democrats — Heidi Heitkamp, Jeanne Shaheen and Joe Donnelly — introduced a bill last week to delay the insurance tax for another two years. House Republicans are also hoping to find some bipartisan support for a similar measure, though they also still need to finalize the policy details.
  • Opposition to the device tax is also bipartisan, and heating up. More than 175 House members, including 43 Republicans, signed on to a letter yesterday urging Speaker Paul Ryan to bring up a bill fully repealing the device tax.

Reality check: Both industries, but especially insurers, are more likely to win another delay than see their taxes repealed.

And though there will be public pushes here and there for stand-alone bills, or for inclusion in tax reform, getting onto Congress’ massive end-of-year package is their best bet. Measures to delay the insurance or device taxes could be added to Alexander-Murray, if it comes up, as a way to win more Republican votes without losing Democrats.

Republicans go toe-to-toe, again, with competing ACA bills

https://www.axios.com/vitals-2501052572.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&stream=health-care

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Now the Senate has two competing plans to fund the ACA’s cost-sharing subsidies — which could mean it won’t be able to pass either one. Senate Finance chair Orrin Hatch and House Ways and Means chair Kevin Brady outlined a new proposal yesterday as an alternative to the bipartisan ACA bill led by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray.

The details: It’s hard to call these competing ACA stabilization bills. Although they’d both fund cost-sharing reduction (CSR) subsidies for two years, Hatch-Brady would also waive the law’s individual mandate for five years — effectively replacing one source of rising premiums with another.

  • Conservatives are not happy with Alexander-Murray. They’ve argued that if they’re going to keep the law’s cost-sharing payments flowing, they should be able to extract severe regulatory reforms in exchange.
  • Hatch-Brady is definitely more conservative than Alexander-Murray. The big unknown is whether its presence will stop more Republicans from accepting Alexander-Murray as “The Bill” — especially in the House, where its standing is weaker than in the Senate.
  • What they’re saying: “Sad attempt at relevancy by health care staff on Finance who are upset that their boss is entirely focused on tax reform, as he should be,” a senior GOP aide told my colleague Caitlin Owens.

The odds: 100% of the available evidence, from the entire Trump administration to date, suggests very strongly that Republicans are not capable of passing a health care bill on their own. They couldn’t do it with 50 votes in the Senate, and either one of these bills would need 60.

  • Alexander-Murray has 60 votes in the Senate.
  • Hatch-Brady would have an extremely hard time getting there. Waiving the individual mandate will be too much to ask from most, if not all, Democrats.
  • Leadership will likely face a choice between passing Alexander-Murray, with only minor modifications; or not passing anything at all.
  • All of this still probably comes down to December, when lawmakers have to deal with a host of thorny must-pass bills.

Bipartisan ACA bill gets a challenge from the right

https://www.axios.com/bipartisan-aca-bill-gets-a-challenge-from-the-right-2500833570.html?stream=health-care&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=alerts_healthcare

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Two prominent Republicans have come up with a more conservative alternative to the Senate’s bipartisan Affordable Care Act bill. The new proposal, from Sen. Orrin Hatch and Rep. Kevin Brady, would waive the ACA’s individual and employer mandates in exchange for temporarily funding its cost-sharing subsidies.

Why it matters: This proposal would be harder to pass than the one that’s already on the table. But it’s a sign that conservatives aren’t willing to sit on the sidelines on a process that, so far, has not given them much of what they want.

The details: Hatch and Brady’s proposal, which hasn’t yet been translated into legislative text, is largely in line with what the White House has said it wants. Their proposal would:

  • Fund the ACA’s cost-sharing subsidies for two years
  • Attach new abortion-related conditions on those funds
  • Waive the individual mandate for five years
  • Retroactively waive the employer mandate for two years
  • Expand health savings accounts

The alternative: The bill sponsored by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray, by contrast, would fund the cost-sharing subsidies for two years; allow more people to buy cheaper, less comprehensive coverage; and make it easier for states to seek waivers from some of the ACA’s regulatory requirements.

The bottom line: Few, if any, Democrats could support Hatch-Brady — and that gives it much longer odds than Alexander-Murray, which already has the 60 votes it would need to pass the Senate. The question is whether GOP leaders will try to find a middle ground — and whether the presence of an alternative will stop Alexander-Murray from gaining more GOP support, especially in the House.

What’s Causing America’s Rural Health Insurance Crisis?

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Over recent years, numerous rural health insurance markets have teetered on the brink of collapse. Rural areas have long posed a special challenge to health care policymakers, but a poorly-designed system of subsidies for rural hospital care has turned this into a crisis. It has fostered a rural hospital market structure that has crippled the ability of private insurers to negotiate reasonable payment rates, without fully securing the provision of essential care. By refocusing federal assistance on emergency care, it should be possible to restore rural insurance markets to health, while improving the affordability and access to care available to residents.

Warren Buffett once famously observed that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” As the Affordable Care Act’s reforms have placed the nongroup market for health insurance under acute strain, it is rural areas that have been most exposed. Of 650 counties that have only a single insurer offering plans on their exchange, 70 percent are rural. For Medicare Advantage, despite total revenues roughly twice as large as the individual market, the situation is even worse—with 140 (mostly rural) counties lacking private insurance coverage options altogether.

It is more challenging to deliver healthcare services in sparsely populated areas. Small communities are unable to support full-time physicians for many medical specialties, and the fixed costs of multi-million-dollar hospital equipment cannot be spread across so many patients. As only 24 percent of rural residents can reach a top trauma center within an hour, rural areas suffer 60 percent of America’s trauma deaths, despite having only 20 percent of the nation’s population.

During the 1990s, economic pressures forced 208 rural hospitals to close. As a result, Congress established the Flex program to boost Medicare payments to isolated rural hospitals. Facilities designated as Critical Access Hospitals under the Flex program were intended to be more than 35 miles by major road from other facilities, but states were allowed to waive that requirement. As a result, the number of such hospitals grew from 41 in 1999 to more than 1,300 in 2011 – covering a quarter of U.S. hospitals, before Congress eliminated the states’ waiver power. By that time, 800 facilities exceeding the 35-mile requirement had been designated as CAHs, and these were grandfathered in.

What makes CAH status so attractive to hospitals? Instead of being paid standard Medicare rates for services, CAHs are allowed to claim reimbursement for whatever costs they incur in the delivery of covered inpatient, outpatient, post-acute and laboratory services to Medicare beneficiaries. Medicare pays more to facilities with the most expensive cost structures and eliminates incentives to control expenses – encouraging all to increase spending on new infrastructure and equipment.

Eighty-one percent of CAHs now have MRI scanners, for which they bill Medicare an average of $633 per scan—double the normal fee schedule rates. From 1998 to 2003, payments per discharge for acute care at CAHs rose by 21 percent, while post-acute care costs per day almost quadrupled. This upward pressure on costs has compounded over time: The longer a hospital has been a CAH, the more its costs have grown.

To check the capacity of CAHs to inflate their overheads, Medicare rules limit them to 25 beds. This has transformed the rural hospital landscape. In 1997, 85 percent of rural hospitals had more than 25 beds; by 2004 only 55 percent did. This makes it very difficult for the best-managed and most cost-effective facilities to win market share and has eliminated whatever competitive forces may have constrained costs. Nonetheless, excess capacity remains enormous: occupancy rates were only 37 percent in small rural hospital in 2014, compared with 64 percent in urban hospitals. Insurers covering care at such facilities must pay for equipment that is often unused and skilled physicians who spend much of their time idle.

Medicare Advantage (MA) plans have been hit hardest by this arrangement. MA plans usually attract enrollees by providing supplemental benefits and reduced out-of-pocket costs, funded by preventing unnecessarily costly hospitalizations. But, as CAHs are able to claim unconstrained reimbursement for Medicare beneficiaries directly from the government, they have little reason to agree to reasonable fees with MA plans, who may constrain their claims or steer enrollees to cheaper sites of care. Even under relatively loose network adequacy requirements, MA plans can, therefore, be effectively locked out of states dominated by CAHs. While 56 percent of Medicare beneficiaries in Minnesota are enrolled in MA plans, only 3 percent of those in Wyoming and 1 percent in Alaska are covered.

Low volumes and the absence of competition have also resulted in a lower quality of care. CAHs are more poorly-equipped than other hospitals, fall short on standard processes of care and have higher 30-day mortality rates for critical conditions. As a result, patients are increasingly willing to travel longer distance for treatments, with rural residents receiving 48 percent of elective care beyond their local providers. This bypass of rural provider networks is particularly common for surgeries on eye, musculoskeletal and digestive systems and for complex procedures more generally.

Although CAH status gives each hospital an average additional $500,000 of revenues, falling volumes of inpatient procedures and the increased costs entailed by this arrangement nonetheless leaves many facilities struggling. According to the National Rural Health Association, 55 rural hospitals closed between 2010 and 2015, while 283 were on brink of closure.

Can the $2 billion total annual cost of additional hospital subsidies provided by the Medicare Flex program not be better spent to support essential care in rural areas?

MedPAC, the agency established by Congress to advise it on Medicare payment policy, has argued that CAHs are “not the best solution”, as “many small towns do not have the population to support efficient, high-quality inpatient services.” MedPAC has proposed that Congress provide lump-sum payments to cover the overheads needed to provide 24/7 emergency care at geographically isolated outpatient-only facilities and suggested that Medicare reimbursement be extended to care provided by standalone emergency departments.

This would focus subsidies to secure emergency services, which must be delivered locally, while leaving elective care to be located efficiently according to market demand. Such a reform would give emergency rural hospital care a firmer financial foundation while restoring payment rules for elective care that would make it possible for insurers to re-enter the rural marketplace.

Gallup: Uninsured rate climbs to 12.3% in Q3

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/gallup-uninsured-rate-climbs-to-123-in-q3/507951/

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Dive Brief:

  • The share of U.S. adults who lack health insurance inched up 0.6 percentage points to 12.3% in the third quarter of 2017 over the previous quarter, a new Gallup poll shows.
  • The uninsured rate — 1.4 points higher than at the end of last year (3.5 million more Americans) — is now the largest since the 2014 fourth quarter when it was 12.9%.
  • The biggest decline is among individuals with self-paid plans, which fell 1.3 points to 21.3% since the end of 2016. The poll — part of the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index — draws on interviews with 45,000 U.S. adults between July 1 and Sept. 30.

Dive Insight:

The numbers are somewhat alarming given the record low 10.9% uninsured rate in the second half of last year. Still, the current rate is well below the 18% high seen in Q3 2013, before the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) insurance exchanges and individual mandate took effect.

After adults with self-paid plans, the biggest change is among Americans with Medicare coverage, down 0.5 percentage points to 7.1%.

Factors contributing to the recent rise in uninsured, according to Gallup, include the lack of competition and rising premiums as payers exit the exchanges, and uncertainty about the ACA’s future.

With President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers attempting to sabotage the ACA, the number of uninsured is likely to continue to rise. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order loosening health plan benefit requirements and said he would discontinue cost-sharing paymentsto insurers. The combined moves will undermine the exchanges and allow payers to offer skimpier plans with more out-of-pocket costs.

Congress also let pass it Sept. 30 deadline for reauthorizing the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which provides coverage for nearly 9 million children. While Congress has vowed to pursue legislation, states are concerned a delay in reauthorization could cause federal funds, which pay for most of the program, to run dry.

The Gallup findings are somewhat in line with a recently released National Center for Health Statistics survey, which found the percentage of all uninsured Americans dropped to 8.8% in the first quarter of this year versus a year ago. Among adults between 18 and 64, the uninsured rate was 12.1%, 5.3% of children were uninsured.

Hospitals, many of them already struggling, are bracing for more uncompensated care as Trump and Republicans angle to roll back Medicaid expansion. A new formula for calculating uncompensated care payments is also fueling industry concerns. The formula, part of the Medicare Inpatient Prospective Payment System, would increase disproportionate share hospital payments to $6.8 billion, or about $800 million more than in fiscal year 2017, but the American Hospital Association has called the worksheet used to calculate the payments confusing and not always accurate.

In addition, the CMS has said FY2018 uncompensated care payments for all hospitals will be $2 billion below the current level. Between 2018 and 2025, uncompensated care payments are expected to decline by $43 billion.