The upheaval of the past few years has permanently changed the healthcare landscape, and while many sectors of the industry continue to endure financial hardship, there is reason for cautious optimism in 2024 as healthcare begins to see a return on investment in technology and a resurgence in dealmaking.
This year, BDO surveyed healthcare CFOs to discover their plans, priorities, and concerns heading into 2024.
In today’s newsletter, I’ve outlined the top research findings that every healthcare leader needs to know to prepare for the year ahead.
Top 3 Workforce Investment Areas
Clinician burnout and staffing shortages remain challenging in the healthcare industry, but BDO’s survey indicated that many CFOs are bullish that the worst is behind them, with 47% stating they feel that in 2024, the talent shortage will represent less of a risk than in 2023.
Investment in the workforce is crucial to addressing staffing challenges, and in the year ahead, healthcare CFOs intend to invest in the following ways:
1. Training: 48% of CFOs plan to spend more on training, in part to buttress ongoing investment in new technologies like AI that can help with predictive staffing and financial reporting.
2. Recruitment: 48% of CFOs will spend more on recruiting, as the talent shortfall tightens an already restricted pool of candidates.
3. Compensation & Benefits: Alongside greater spending on recruiting itself, 46% of CFOs intend to increase compensation and benefits as a means of attracting talent from competitors and retaining current staff.
Transaction Plans
Dealmaking turned a corner in 2023, with activity returning to pre-pandemic levels in Q2. Despite fluctuating interest rates and the volatility of an election year, we can expect more transactions in 2024, with 72% of CFOs planning some kind of deal, relative to their organization’s financial health and liquidity. An increase in antitrust activity, however, could impact the size and type of deals that see success. Healthcare CFOs planning a large deal should be prepared for heightened scrutiny.
While we expect to see a wide range of deals taking place over the next year, two specific deal types are worth calling out:
1. Carve-outs/Divestitures: We may see an uptick in enterprise sales, carve-outs, and divestitures, particularly for institutions that have been struggling financially — 31% of institutions that violated their bond or loan covenants in 2023 are planning to pursue deals of this kind.
2. Private Equity (PE) and Venture Capital (VC): Nearly one in five (19%) CFOs, particularly those working with physician groups, plan to explore PE and VC investment as avenues toward scaling, sharing services, and safeguarding succession planning.
Service Line Investment Plans
There are still many areas where CFOs are intending to increase investment, but changed market conditions mean that some core areas of healthcare may see decreased investment as the industry realigns:
1. Specialty Services: Fifty-two percent of CFOs plan to increase their investments in specialty services like cardiology, oncology, and dermatology, while 23% of CFOs intend to partner with a capital provider or operator.
2. Service Expansion: Home care (51%), virtual/telehealth (48%), and ambulatory service centers (49%) are also priority areas for investment as institutions continue to expand and maintain access to healthcare outside of traditional hospital and clinic settings.
3. Primary Care: Although primary care remains at the heart of the healthcare industry, many CFOs (42%) have in fact signaled an intent to reduce investment in this area, reassessing their primary care strategies due to significant cash flow pressures and ongoing realignment as the retail market gains ground.
Want to know more about healthcare leaders’ plans for the year ahead? Get more insights and data in BDO’s 2024 Healthcare CFO Outlook Survey.
Where are you planning on increasing investment in your organization this year? Let me know in the comments below.
Earlier this month, leaders from more than 400 organizations descended on San Francisco for J.P. Morgan‘s 42nd annual healthcare conference to discuss some of the biggest issues in healthcare today. Here’s how Advisory Board experts are thinking about Modern Healthcare’s 10 biggest takeaways — and our top resources for each insight.
How we’re thinking about the top 10 takeaways from JPM’s annual healthcare conference
Following the conference, Modern Healthcare provided a breakdown of the top-of-mind issues attendees discussed.
Here’s how our experts are thinking about the top 10 takeaways from the conference — and the resources they recommend for each insight.
1. Ambulatory care provides a growth opportunity for some health systems
By Elizabeth Orr, Vidal Seegobin, and Paul Trigonoplos
At the conference, many health system leaders said they are evaluating growth opportunities for outpatient services.
However, results from our Strategic Planner’s Survey suggest only the biggest systems are investing in building new ambulatory facilities. That data, alongside the high cost of borrowing and the trifurcation of credit that Fitch is predicting, suggests that only a select group of health systems are currently poised to leverage ambulatory care as a growth opportunity.
Systems with limited capital will be well served by considering other ways to reach patients outside the hospital through virtual care, a better digital front door, and partnerships. The efficiency of outpatient operations and how they connect through the care continuum will affect the ROI on ambulatory investments. Buying or building ambulatory facilities does not guarantee dramatic revenue growth, and gaining ambulatory market share does not always yield improved margins.
While physician groups, together with management service organizations, are very good at optimizing care environments to generate margins (and thereby profit), most health systems use ambulatory surgery center development as a defensive market share tactic to keep patients within their system.
This approach leaves margins on the table and doesn’t solve the growth problem in the long term. Each of these ambulatory investments would do well to be evaluated on both their individual profitability and share of wallet.
On January 24 and 25, Advisory Board will convene experts from across the healthcare ecosystem to inventory the predominant growth strategies pursued by major players, explore considerations for specialty care and ambulatory network development, understand volume and site-of-care shifts, and more. Register here to join us for the Redefining Growth Virtual Summit.
Also, check out our resources to help you plan for shifts in patient utilization:
2. Rebounding patient volumes further strain capacity
By Jordan Peterson, Eliza Dailey, and Allyson Paiewonsky
Many health system leaders noted that both inpatient and outpatient volumes have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, placing further strain on workforces.
The rebound in patient volumes, coupled with an overstretched workforce, underscores the need to invest in technology to extend clinician reach, while at the same time doubling down on operational efficiency to help with things like patient access and scheduling.
For leaders looking to leverage technology and boost operational efficiency, we have a number of resources that can help:
3. Health systems aren’t specific on AI strategies
By Paul Trigonoplos and John League
According to Modern Healthcare, nearly all health systems discussed artificial intelligence (AI) at the conference, but few offered detailed implementation plans and expectations.
Over the past year, a big part of the work for Advisory Board’s digital health and health systems research teams has been to help members reframe the fear of missing out (FOMO) that many care delivery organizations have about AI.
We think AI can and will solve problems in healthcare. Every organization should at least be observing AI innovations. But we don’t believe that “the lack of detail on healthcare AI applications may signal that health systems aren’t ready to embrace the relatively untested and unregulated technology,” as Modern Healthcare reported.
The real challenge for many care delivery organizations is dealing with the pace of change — not readiness to embrace or accept it. They aren’t used to having to react to anything as fast-moving as AI’s recent evolution. If their focus for now is on low-hanging fruit, that’s completely understandable. It’s also much more important for these organizations to spend time now linking AI to their strategic goals and building out their governance structures than it is to be first in line with new applications.
Check out our top resources for health systems working to implement AI:
Digital health companies like Teladoc, R1 RCM, Veradigm, and Talkspace all spoke out about their use of generative AI.
This does not surprise us at all. In fact, we would be more surprised if digital health companies were not touting their AI capabilities. Generative AI’s flexibility and ease of use make it an accessible addition to nearly any technology solution.
However, that alone does not necessarily make the solution more valuable or useful. In fact, many organizations would do well to consider how they want to apply new AI solutions and compare those solutions to the ones that they would have used in October 2022 — before ChatGPT’s newest incarnation was unveiled. It may be that other forms of AI, predictive analytics, or robotic process automation are as effective at a better cost.
Again, we believe that AI can and will solve problems in healthcare. We just don’t think it will solve every problem in healthcare, or that every solution benefits from its inclusion.
During the conference, providers criticized insurers for the rate of denials, Modern Healthcare reports.
Denials — along with other utilization management techniques like prior authorization — continue to build tension between payers and providers, with payers emphasizing their importance for ensuring cost effective, appropriate care and providers overwhelmed by both the administrative burden and the impact of denials on their finances.
Many health plans have announced major moves to reduce prior authorizations and CMS recently announced plans to move forward with regulations to streamline the prior authorization process. However, these efforts haven’t significantly impacted providers yet.
In fact, most providers report no decrease in denials or overall administrative burden. A new report found that claims denials increased by 11.99% in the first three quarters of 2023, following similar double digit increases in 2021 and 2022.
Our team is actively researching the root cause of this discrepancy and reasons for the noted increase in denials. Stay tuned for more on improving denials performance — and the broader payer-provider relationship — in upcoming 2024 Advisory Board research.
For now, check out this case study to see how Baptist Health achieved a 0.65% denial write-off rate.
6. Insurers are prioritizing Star Ratings and risk adjustment changes
By Mallory Kirby
Various insurers and providers spoke about “the fallout from star ratings and risk adjustment changes.”
2023 presented organizations focused on MA with significant headwinds. While many insurers prioritized MA growth in recent years, leaders have increased their emphasis on quality and operational excellence to ensure financial sustainability.
With an eye on these headwinds, it makes sense that insurers are upping their game to manage Star Ratings and risk adjustment. While MA growth felt like the priority in years past, this focus on operational excellence to ensure financial sustainability has become a priority.
We’ve already seen litigation from health plans contesting the regulatory changes that impact the bottom line for many MA plans. But with more changes on the horizon — including the introduction of the Health Equity Index as a reward factor for Stars and phasing in of the new Risk Adjustment Data Validation model — plans must prioritize long-term sustainability.
Check out our latest MA research for strategies on MA coding accuracy and Star Ratings:
Pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) leaders discussed the ways they are preparing for potential congressional action, including “updating their pricing models and diversifying their revenue streams.”
Healthcare leaders should be prepared for Congress to move forward with PBM regulation in 2024. A final bill will likely include federal reporting requirements, spread pricing bans, and preferred pricing restrictions for PBMs with their own specialty pharmacy. In the short term, these regulations will likely apply to Medicare and Medicaid population benefits only, and not the commercial market.
Congress isn’t the only entity calling for change. Several states passed bills in the last year targeting PBM transparency and pricing structures. The Federal Trade Commission‘s ongoing investigation into select PBMs looks at some of the same practices Congress aims to regulate. PBM commercial clients are also applying pressure. In 2023, Blue Cross Blue Shield of California‘s (BSC) decided to outsource tasks historically performed by their PBM partner. A statement from BSC indicated the change was in part due to a desire for less complexity and more transparency.
Here’s what this means for PBMs:
Transparency is a must
The level of scrutiny on transparency will force the hand of PBMs. They will have to comply with federal and state policy change and likely give something to their commercial partners to stay competitive. We’re already seeing this unfold across some of the largest PBMs. Recently, CVS Caremarkand Express Scripts launched transparent reimbursement and pricing models for participating in-network pharmacies and plan sponsors.
While transparency requirements will be a headache for larger PBMs, they might be a real threat to smaller companies. Some small PBMs highlight transparency as their main value add. As the larger PBMs focus more on transparency, smaller PBMs who rely on transparent offerings to differentiate themselves in a crowded market may lose their main competitive edge.
PBMs will have to try new strategies to boost revenue
PBM practice of guiding prescriptions to their own specialty pharmacy or those providing more competitive pricing is a key strategy for revenue. Stricter regulations on spread pricing and patient steerage will prompt PBMs to look for additional revenue levers.
PBMs are already getting started — with Express Scripts reporting they will cut reimbursement for wholesale brand name drugs by about 10% in 2024. Other PBMs are trying to diversify their business opportunities. For example, CVS Caremark’s has offered a new TrueCost model to their clients for an additional fee. The model determines drug prices based on the net cost of drugs and clearly defined fee structures. We’re also watching growing interest in cross-benefitutilization management programs for specialty drugs. These offerings look across both medical and pharmacy benefits to ensure that the most cost-effective drug is prescribed for patients.
At the conference, retailers such as CVS, Walgreens, and Amazon doubled down on their healthcare services strategies.
Typically, disruptors do not get into care delivery because they think it will be easy. Disruptors get into care delivery because they look at what is currently available and it looks so hard — hard to access, hard to understand, and hard to pay for.
Many established players still view so-called disruptors as problematic, but we believe that most tech companies that move into healthcare are doing what they usually do — they look at incumbent approaches that make it hard for customers and stakeholders to access, understand, and pay for care, and see opportunities to use technology and innovative business models in an attempt to target these pain points.
CVS, Walgreens, and Amazon are pursuing strategies that are intended to make it more convenient for specific populations to get care. If those efforts aren’t clearly profitable, that does not mean that they will fail or that they won’t pressure legacy players to make changes to their own strategies. Other organizations don’t have to copy these disruptors (which is good because most can’t), but they must acknowledge why patient-consumers are attracted to these offerings.
For more information on how disruptors are impacting healthcare, check out these resources:
9. Financial pressures remain for many health systems
By Vidal Seegobin and Marisa Nives
Health systems are recovering from the worst financial year in recent history. While most large health systems presenting at the conference saw their finances improve in 2023, labor challenges and reimbursement pressures remain.
We would be remiss to say that hospitals aren’t working hard to improve their finances. In fact, operating margins in November 2023 broke 2%. But margins below 3% remain a challenge for long-term financial sustainability.
One of the more concerning trends is that margin growth is not tracking with a large rebound in volumes. There are number of culprits: elevated cost structures, increased patient complexity, and a reimbursement structure shifting towards government payers.
For many systems, this means they need to return to mastering the basics: Managing costs, workforce retention, and improving quality of care. While these efforts will help bridge the margin gap, the decoupling of volumes and margins means that growth for health systems can’t center on simply getting bigger to expand volumes.
Maximizing efficiency, improving access, and bending the cost curve will be the main pillars for growth and sustainability in 2024.
To learn more about what health system strategists are prioritizing in 2024, read our recent survey findings.
Also, check out our resources on external partnerships and cost-saving strategies:
During the conference, MA insurers reported seeing a spike in utilization driven by increased doctor’s visits and elective surgeries.
These increased medical expenses are putting more pressure on MA insurers’ margins, which are already facing headwinds due to CMS changes in MA risk-adjustment and Star Ratings calculations.
However, this increased utilization isn’t all bad news for insurers. Part of the increased utilization among seniors can be attributed to more preventive care, such as an uptick in RSV vaccinations.
In UnitedHealth Group‘s* Q4 earnings call, CFO John Rex noted that, “Interest in getting the shot, especially among the senior population, got some people into the doctor’s office when they hadn’t visited in a while,” which led to primary care physicians addressing other care needs. As seniors are referred to specialty care to address these needs, plans need to have strategies in place to better manage their specialist spend.
Last week we discussed how hospitals are still struggling to retain talent. This week’s graphic offers one explanation for this trend:
a significant share of older nurses, who continued to work during the height of the pandemic, have now exited the workforce, and health systems are even more reliant on younger nurses.
Between 2020 and 2022, the number of nurses ages 65 and older decreased by 200K, resulting in a reduction of that age cohort from 19 percent to 13 percent of the total nursing workforce. While the total number of nurses in the workforce still increased, the younger nurses filling these roles are both earlier in their nursing careers (thus less experienced), and more likely to change jobs.
Case in point:
From 2019 to 2023, the average tenure of a hospital nurse dropped by 22 percent. The wave of Baby Boomer nurse retirements has also resulted in a 33 percent decrease from 2020 to 2022 in the number of registered nurses who have been licensed for over 40 years.
Given these shifts, hospitals must adjust their current recruitment, retention, training, and mentorship initiatives to match the needs of younger, early-career nurses.
Monday’s walkout of tens of thousands of nurses and ambulance staff was the largest in the NHS’s 75-year history.
Labor demonstrations have been ongoing across the past few months, as workers demand higher pay and better working conditions amid rampant national inflation and increased workloads.
Specific demands vary by union and nation within the United Kingdom. Welsh nurses called off their strike this week to review a proposal from Wales’ Labour Party-run government, while the Royal College of Nurses, the UK’s largest nursing union, has countered a nominal 5 percent pay increase proposal with demands for a five percent pay raise on top of inflation, which topped 10 percent in Britain in December.
The Gist: A glance at our neighbors across the pond shows that the US healthcare system is not the only one currently experiencing a labor crisis.
The UK’s nationalized system has also failed to shield its workers from the combined impact of COVID burnout and inflation. But the NHS, as the UK’s largest employer and perennial object of political maneuvering, is more susceptible to organized labor actions.
In contrast, American healthcare unions, which only covered 17 percent of the country’s nurses in 2021, must negotiate with local employers, whose responses to their demands vary.
While this may enhance the bargaining power of US health system leaders, it also heightensthe risk that we will fail to adequately secure our nursing workforce, a key national resource already in short supply, for the longer term.
It covers 589,901 healthcare workers and 166,087 registered nurses from 272 facilities and 32 states. Participants were asked to report data on turnover, retention, vacancy rates, recruitment metrics and staffing strategies from January to December 2021.
The survey found a wide range of helpful figures for understanding the financial fallout of one of healthcare’s hardest labor disruptions:
The average hospital lost $7.1 million in 2021 to higher turnover rates.
The average hospital loses $5.2 to $9 million on RN turnover yearly.
The average turnover cost for a staff RN is $46,100, up more than 15 percent from the 2020 average.
The average hospital can save $262,300 per year for each percentage point it drops from its RN turnover rate.
To improve margins, hospitals need to control labor costs by decreasing dependence on travel and agency staff, but only 22.7 percent anticipate being able to do so.
For every 20 travel RNs eliminated, a hospital can save $4.2 million on average.
In the past 5 years, the average hospital turned over 100.5 percent of its workforce:
In 2021, hospitals set a goal of reducing turnover by 4.8 percent. Instead, it increased 6.4 percent and ranged from 5.1 percent to 40.8 percent. The current average hospital turnover rate nationally is 25.9 percent, according to the report.
While 72.6 percent of hospitals have a formal nurse retention strategy, less than half of those (44.5 percent) have a measurable goal.
Overall, 55.5 percent of hospitals do not have a measurable nurse retention goal.
Retirement is the number four reason staff RNs leave, and it is expected to remain a primary driver through 2030. More than half (52.8 percent) of hospitals today have a strategy to retain senior nurses. In 2018, only 21.6 percent had one.
Historically, RN turnover has trended below the hospital average across all staff. For the first time since conducting the survey, this is no longer true:
In the past five years, the average hospital turned over 95.7 percent of its RN workforce.
Close to a third (31.0 percent) of all newly hired RNs left within a year, with first year turnover accounting for 27.7 percent of all RN separations. Given the projected surge in retirements, expect to see the more tenured groups edge up creating an inverted bell curve.
Operating room RNs continue to be the toughest to recruit, while labor and delivery RNs are trending easier to recruit than in the year prior.
Hospitals are experiencing a dramatically higher RN vacancy rate (17 percent) compared to last year’s rate of 9.9 percent.
The vast majority (81.3 percent) reported a vacancy rate higher than 10 percent.
HENRY KOTULA 