Figure. Excess deaths in the U.S. relative to other wealthy nations, 1933-2021. Source: Human Mortality Database. Note: Figure shows the difference between the number of deaths that occurred in the U.S. each year and the number of deaths that would have occurred if the U.S. had age-specific mortality rates equal to the average of other wealthy nations. The comparison set includes Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The average of other wealthy nations excludes Portugal prior to 1940, Austria and Japan prior to 1947, Germany prior to 1956, and Luxembourg prior to 1960. From 1960, all countries are represented (solid dots).
COVID-19 led to a large increase in U.S. deaths. However, even before the pandemic, the U.S. had higher death rates than other wealthy nations. How many deaths could be avoided if the U.S. had the same mortality rates as its peers?
In a new study, we quantify the annual number of U.S. deaths that would have been averted over nearly a century if the U.S. had age-specific mortality rates equal to the average of 18 similarly wealthy nations. We refer to these excess U.S. deaths as “missing Americans.”
The annual number of “missing Americans” increased steadily beginning in the late 1970s, reaching 626,353 in 2019 (Figure). Excess U.S. deaths jumped sharply to 991,868 in 2020 and 1,092,293 in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2021, nearly 1 out of every 3 U.S. deaths would have been averted if U.S. mortality rates had equaled those of its peer nations. Half of these excess deaths were among U.S. residents under 65 years. We estimate that the 1.1M excess deaths in 2021 were associated with 25M years of life lost, accounting for the number of years the deceased would otherwise be expected to live.
We also compared mortality rates of U.S. racial and ethnic groups with the international benchmark. Black and Native Americans accounted for a disproportionate share of the “missing Americans.” However, the majority of “missing Americans” were White non-Hispanic persons.
Our findings are consistent with recent reports that the life expectancy gap between the U.S. and peer nations widened during the pandemic, with U.S. life expectancy falling from 78.9 to 76.6 years. Life expectancy is widely reported, but it is a complex measure and may be misinterpreted as reflecting small differences in mortality at advanced ages.
In fact, the greatest relative differences in mortality between the U.S. and peer countries occur before age 65. In 2021, half of all deaths to U.S. residents under 65 years – and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality since 2019 – would have been avoided if the U.S. had the mortality rates of other wealthy nations. In addition to the loss of life, these early deaths often leave behind child (and elder) dependents without key social and economic support.
Our calculations were based on recently released mortality data, obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER Database and the Human Mortality Database. The international comparison group included all available countries with relatively complete mortality data starting in 1960 or earlier, after excluding former communist countries. Our paper builds on prior analyses of excess deaths by our study team and byothers.
We find a very large increase in excess U.S. deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this spike occurred on top of a growing trend that reached 600,000 excess deaths in 2019. Future COVID-19 deaths could be reduced with broader vaccine uptake, worker protections, and masking during surges. Even if COVID-19 mortality were eliminated, however, the U.S. would likely suffer hundreds of thousands of excess deaths each year, with many linked to firearms, opioids, and obesity.
Addressing excess deaths in the U.S. will require public health and social policies that target the root causes of U.S. health malaise, including fading economic opportunities and rising financial insecurity, structural racism, and failures of institutions at all levels of government to invest adequately in population health.
As employers plan for 2023, attracting and retaining talent is top of mind amid a competitive U.S. labor market. That’s led to over two-thirds of companies planning to enhance employee health and benefit offerings next year, according to survey results from Mercer published July 6.
The survey was conducted April 26 to May 13. In total, 708 organizations participated, from all industries and of all sizes ranging from fewer than 500 employees to more than 5,000.
Nine things to know:
Among large employers, 70 percent are planning to enhance health and benefit offerings in 2023.
Among all employers, 61 percent are conducting surveys on employee benefit preferences.
Among large employers, 41 percent currently provide a plan option with a low deductible or none at all, and 11 percent are considering it.
Over half of employees say no remote or hybrid work is a deal breaker when considering to join or stay with an organization. Among all employers, 78 percent now allow employees to work from home regularly, compared to 26 percent in 2021.
Among large employers, 52 percent will offer virtual behavioral healthcare in 2023, and 40 percent will offer a virtual primary care physician network or service.
Though 64 percent of employers are not prioritizing a single employee group for benefit enhancements, 35 percent say they are focusing on hourly and low-wage employees.
Nearly one-third of employers will offer benefits such as fertility treatment coverage and adoption and surrogacy benefits by 2023, and almost another third are considering it.
Among all employers, 70 percent currently offer or plan to offer paid parental leave in 2023.
Among all employers, 75 percent offer or plan to offer tuition reimbursement in 2023.
With the impending summer dip in donors, blood centers across the U.S. face a tall hurdle during a national blood shortage.
Six months ago, the organization that supplies nearly half of the nation’s blood supply, Red Cross, declared the first-ever national crisis. Summer has always slowed donors, a trend often attributed to closed schools and people busy on vacations, but with COVID-19 already hurting blood donation numbers, blood banks face an unsteady season.
“It’s a very challenging time, and it does put a lot of stress on the organization because we take saving lives very seriously,” the executive director of the Arkansas Blood Institute, Mario Sedlock, told radio station KUAR. “We just want to make sure that our hospitals have what they need to take care of the patients and that’s essentially what we’re all about.”
An Ohio blood center issued an emergency plea in mid-June for O-negative donors because of a “dangerously low” supply, and some blood centers are offering free movie tickets and baseball tickets to entice donors.
Columbus-based OhioHealth is eliminating 637 jobs, its biggest layoff ever, according to The Columbus Dispatch. The move is part of a plan to engage external partners to provide some services the system currently provides in house.
Over the next three to five months, the system will eliminate those jobs in information technology and revenue cycle management. Of those, 567 are in information technology. It informed workers of the cuts on July 7.
“We are committed to providing a high-level of support to all associates affected by this change,” Colin Yoder, director of media and public relations at OhioHealth, told Becker’s in a statement. “This includes outplacement support, a job fair specifically for those displaced, temporary salary and benefits continuation after their OhioHealth employment ends and upskill training for those in Information Technology.”
OhioHealth said the IT work will be handled by the professional services company Accenture, and AGS Health will handle the revenue cycle business.
The layoffs, according to OhioHealth, are intended to improve patient care and services and position the healthcare system for a future where patients rely more on telemedicine and cellphones to obtain their healthcare.
“This strategy will enable us to secure the skills, technology, expertise and innovation required to deliver a best-in-class, patient-centric, personalized healthcare experience without taking away from investments we are already making at the bedside,” Mr. Yoder said.
The IT workers will remain on payroll until Jan. 3 and will be given the opportunity for training that could make them eligible for other jobs at the company. The other workers will be laid off Nov. 4.
On July 7, 2022, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the 2023 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (MPFS) proposed rule, which includes payment provisions and policy changes to the Quality Payment Program (QPP) and Alternative Payment Model (APM) participation options and requirements for 2023.
MPFS Key Proposals and Additional Potential Medicare Reductions:
For 2023, CMS proposes a Conversion Factor (CF) of $33.0775 which is a decrease of $1.53 or -4.42% from the 2022 conversion factor of 34.6062.
This significant reduction in the CF accounts for the expiration of the 3.00% increase in PFS payments for CY 2022 as required by the Protecting Medicare and American Farmers from Sequester Cuts Act, in addition to the statutorily required budget neutrality adjustment to account for changes in Relative Value Units.
The separately calculated Anesthesia CF is proposed at 20.7191, a -3.91% decrease from the 2022 conversion factor of $21.5623.
Key Takeaways: CMS estimates an impact to allowed charges from policy changes in the rule as outlined below. These impacts are due in part due changes in the RVUs and the second year of the transition to clinical labor pricing updates.
(Please note: These estimates do not include the impact on payments from the expiration of the congressionally mandated 3.00% boost to the 2022 CF.)
Anesthesiology: -1%
Diagnostic Radiology: -3%
Interventional Radiology: -4%
Emergency Medicine: +1%
Critical Care: +1%
Nuclear Medicine: -3%
Pathology: -1%
Radiation Oncology/Therapy Centers: -1%
Internal Medicine: +3%
Independent Laboratory -1%
Additional Potential Medicare Reductions:
In addition to the proposed cut to the CF, the second of two sequestration cuts was implemented on July 1, 2022, at -1%, bringing the total sequestration cut to -2% which will continue without Congressional intervention.
Also, the lack of full funding of the American Rescue Plan meant that the Medicare program would contribute 4% under the “PAYGO” (Pay as You Go) rules and that cut will come back into the Medicare fee schedule in 2023. In total, hospital-based physicians face in the approximate range of -10% in 2023 without Congressional intervention.
Appropriate Use Criteria (AUC): CMS did not address the appropriate use criteria (AUC)/clinical decision support (CDS) mandate for advanced diagnostic imaging services in this rule. CMS posted an update on its website indicating that the current educational and operations testing period will continue beyond January 1, 2023, even if the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) ends in 2022. The notice states that the agency is unable to forecast when the payment penalty phase of the program will begin. Read more at CMS.gov.
Additional highlights of the MPFS Proposed Rule include: Evaluations and Management (E/M) Services: As part of the ongoing updates to E/M visits and the related coding guidelines that are intended to reduce administrative burden, the AMA CPT Editorial Panel approved revised coding and updated guidelines for Other E/M visits, effective January 1, 2023.
Like the approach CMS finalized in the CY 2021 MPFS final rule for office/outpatient E/M visit coding and documentation, CMS is proposing to adopt most changes in coding and documentation for Other E/M visits including: hospital inpatient, hospital observation, emergency department, nursing facility, home or residence services, and cognitive impairment assessment, effective January 1, 2023. This revised coding and documentation framework would include CPT code definition changes (revisions to the Other E/M code descriptors), and for the first time would mean that AMA CPT and CMS would follow the same coding guidelines, including:
• New descriptor times (where relevant). • Revised interpretive guidelines for levels of medical decision making. • Choice of medical decision making or time to select code level (except for services such as emergency department visits (time has never been a component of ED E/M services except critical care) and cognitive impairment assessment, which are not timed services). • Eliminated use of history and exam to determine code level (instead there would be a requirement for a medically appropriate history and exam).
Split (or Shared) Visits (Where services are performed by advance practice clinicians.) CMS had previously finalized in the 2022 MPFS final rule a new January 1, 2023 billing policy for instances in which a physician delivers an E/M service along with an advanced practice clinician (APC). Recall that E/M services billed under an APC reimburse at 85% of the MPFS unless there is a documented shared service by the supervising physician.
• The key determinant for deciding if there was a shared service is if the physician provided key elements of the history, exam, or medical decision making ─ OR half of the total time spent treating the patient. • There were significant concerns that in hospital-based settings, the rule (set for implementation on January 1, 2023) would have required only time as the determinative element, and that the majority of APC services would then be reimbursed at 85% of the fee schedule. After significant advocacy by multiple stakeholders, CMS has delayed the policy that would have based the determination of the billing practitioner solely on time. This policy is proposed for delay until January 1, 2024 while CMS collects additional input.
Expand Telehealth Coverage: • CMS is proposing making several services that are temporarily available as telehealth services for the PHE available through CY 2023 on a Category III basis, which will allow more time for collection of data that could support their eventual inclusion as permanent additions to the Medicare telehealth services list. • CMS is also proposing to extend the duration of time that services are temporarily included on the telehealth services list during the PHE, but are not included on a Category I, II, or III basis for a period of 151 days following the end of the PHE, in alignment with the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2022 (CAA, 2022).
Highlights of the Quality Payment Program (QPP): CMS stated they are limiting proposals for traditional MIPS and focusing on further refining implementation of MIPS Value Pathways (MVPs). 2023 Proposed Performance Threshold and Performance Category Weights: The performance threshold for the 2023 performance year is proposed to be 75 points, same as 2022. • Beginning with 2023, CMS will no longer offer an exceptional performance adjustment. • The category weights for the 2023 performance year are proposed to remain the same as the 2022 weights: o Quality – 30%, o Cost – 30% o Promoting interoperability – 25% o Improvement Activities – 15%
Data Completeness Requirements: • For 2023, CMS is proposing quality measure submissions should continue to account for at least 70% of total exam volume – same as 2022.
• CMS proposed to increase this threshold to 75% beginning with the 2024 and 2025 performance years.
Quality Category – Measure Scoring System • Beginning with 2023 CMS will change the scoring range for benchmarked measures to 1 to 10 points, doing away with the 3-point floor. • Score existing non-benchmarked measures at 0 points even if data completeness is met • New measures will continue to be scored at a minimum of 7 points for their first year and a minimum of 5 points in their second year. • CMS is maintaining the small practice bonus of 6 points that is included in the Quality • performance category score. • CMS also continues to award small practices 3 points for submitted quality measures that do not meet case minimum requirements or do not have a benchmark.
MIPS Value Pathways (MVPs) CMS is proposing 5 new MVPs and revising the 7 previously established MVPs that would be available beginning with the 2023 performance year. • Advancing Cancer Care • Optimal Care for Kidney Health • Optimal Care for Patients with Episodic Neurological Conditions • Supportive Care for Neurodegenerative Conditions • Promoting Wellness
Advanced Alternative Payment Models For payment years 2019 through 2024, Qualifying APM Participants (QPs) receive a 5 percent APM Incentive Payment. After performance year 2022, which correlates with payment year 2024, there is no further statutory authority for a 5 percent APM Incentive Payment for eligible clinicians who become QPs for a year.
CMS is concerned that the statutory incentive structure under the QPP beginning in the 2023 performance year. corresponding 2025 payment year, could lead to a drop in Advanced APM participation, and a corresponding increase in MIPS participation. As a result, CMS concluded that it would forego action for the 2023 performance period and 2025 payment year. They instead are seeking public input in identifying potential options for the 2024 performance period and 2026 payment year of the QPP.
HENRY KOTULA 