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Responding to Trump Healthcare 2.0: Key Takeaways after 8 Months

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Responding to Trump Healthcare 2.0: Key Takeaways after 8 Months

The Trump 2.0 administration is 8-months into its MAGA agenda. Summer has passed. Schools are open. Congress is in session. Campaign 2026 is underway. The economy is slowing and public sentiment is dropping.

For U.S. healthcare, it’s more bad news than good. The challenges are unprecedented. Most organizations—hospitals, medical groups, drug and device makers, infomediaries and solution providers, insurers, et al—are defaulting to lower risk bets since the long-term for the health system is unclear.

The good news is that the health system in the U.S. is big, fragmented, complex, expensive (5% CAGR spending increases thru 2034) and slow to change. It is highly regulated at local, state and federal levels, labor intense (20 million) and capital-dependent (government funding, private investment)—a trifecta nightmare for operators and goldmine for private investors who time the system for shareholders effectively. And it operates opaquely: business practices are hidden from everyday users and bona-fide measures of its effectiveness not widely applied or accepted.

The bad news is its long-term sustainability in its current form is suspect and its short-term success is dependent on adapting to key tenets in Trump Healthcare 2.0:

  • Trump Healthcare 2.0 is about reducing federal healthcare spending so federal deficits appear to be going down to voters in the mid-term election (November 3, 2026). Healthcare, which represents 27% of federal spending is an attractive target since a significant majority of all voters (especially MAGA Republicans) are dissatisfied with its performance and think is wasteful and inefficient. It views healthcare as a market where less government, more private innovation achieves more.
  • The effect of One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts to Medicaid and marketplace subsidies and imposition of Make America Healthy Again dogma in CMS, CDC, FDA and FCC are popular in the MAGA base while problematic to states, hospitals, physicians and insurers whose business practices and clinical accountability will be more closely scrutinized.
  • The federal courts—SCOTUS, 13 circuit and 94 district courts– will support Trump Healthcare 2.0 policy changes in their decisions favoring state authority over federal rules, enabling White House executive orders and administrative actions against challenges and departmental directives that encourage competition, price transparency and cost reduction.
  • The FTC and DOJ will pro-actively pursue actions that reverse/disable collusion, horizontal and vertical consolidation in each sector deemed to raise prices and lower choices for consumers.

In the administration’s posturing for the mid-term election November 3, 2026, it’s assumed the economy and prices will be THE major issues to voters: healthcare affordability, housing costs and food prices will get heightened attention as a result.  Thus, every healthcare organization board and leadership team should revisit short and long-term strategies, since traditional lag indicators re: utilization, regulations, structure, roles, responsibilities and funding are decreasingly predictive of the future.

Though every organization is different, there are 6 takeaways that merit particular attention as C suites and Boards re-evaluate strategies and timing:

  1. Monitor the entire economy. The healthcare is 18% of the GDP; 82% of commerce falls outside its domain. Appropriations for healthcare compete with education, defense and public safety and health; household spending for healthcare competes with housing, food and transportation costs. The healthcare dollar is not insulated from competing priorities. If, as expected, the economy slows due to slowdowns in the job market and in housing, and if cuts to marketplace subsidies are enacted, healthcare spending will quickly and significantly drop though utilization will increase.
  2. Follow clinical innovations carefully. Understand bench to bedside obstacles. The FDA will authorize 50-60 novel drugs and biologics and over 100 AI-enabled devices this year. Some will fundamentally alter care management processes; all will change costs and pricing. Those with short-term cost-reduction potential require consideration first. Given increased margin pressures, capital and operating budgets will reflect a more cautious and risk averse posture.
  3. Manage fixed costs (more) aggressively and creatively. Direct costs reduction is not enough. Facilities and administrative functions are fair game and for outsourcing, partnerships and risk sharing with suppliers, vendors, advisors and even competitors.
  4. Don’t underestimate price transparency. Prices matter. Consumers and regulator demand for price transparency from drugmakers, hospitals and insurers are inescapable. Justification and verification will be critical to trust and utilization.
  5. Navigate AI strategically. The pace and effectiveness of Ai-enabled solutions will define winners and losers in each segment. And private capital—investors, partners—will bring those solutions to market.
  6. Don’t discount public opinion. Consumer sentiment about the economy is low and dissatisfaction with the health system is high and increasing. Understanding root causes and initiating process improvement are starting points.

As I head back to DC today, the FY26 federal budget is in suspense as the GOP-controlled Senate and House debate a final version to avoid a shutdown next week.  Physicians, public health and state officials will digest last week’s ACIP vaccine advisory recommendations and issue their own directives and insurers will file their plan revisions for 2026.  That’s what lawmakers and trade groups will be watching.

But at the kitchen tables in at least 40% of America’s households, unpaid healthcare bills from hospitals, labs, doctor offices and set-aside cash for over-the-counter remedies and prescription drug co-pays are on the agenda. Student loan payments, escalating costs for groceries, housing, rent and child care and an unstable employment market are squeezing families. Budgeting for healthcare is more problematic for them than anything else because price are not accessible and charges are not known until after services are performed.

Trump Healthcare 2.0 is not transformational: it is transactional. It aims to simplify the system and facilitate changes certain to disrupt the status quo. Its locus of control, is Main Street USA. not Pennsylvania Ave, in DC.

Medicaid overhaul shifts tough choices to states

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https://www.axios.com/2025/09/19/medicaid-overhaul-states-tough-choices?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&stream=top

Republicans’ sweeping Medicaid overhaul has left a lot of the heavy lifting to governors and state health officials as the program launches the biggest package of changes in its 60-year history.

Why it matters: 

States working with hospitals, clinics and other providers will have to do more with less as they face about $1 trillion in program cuts and the likelihood of 10 million or more newly uninsured people from new work rules and other changes.

  • While the GOP views Medicaid as a waste-riddled program that’s due for a shakeup, the cuts will force painful tradeoffs at the local level as health systems also struggle with inflation, higher labor costs and rising medical costs.
  • “Congress left the dirty work to be done by the governors and state legislators, and that work will start very soon,” said Joan Alker, executive director of Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families.

State of play: 

Medicaid typically accounts for about 30% of a state’s budget each year. Spending goes up during tough economic times, and states are required to cover a set of mandatory benefits.

  • The fallout from the cuts will vary by state based on their reliance on certain funding mechanisms, like taxes on health care providers, and whether they’ve expanded Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act.
  • The new work requirements only apply to people in the expansion group.

The biggest changes from the law will arrive in 2027. But states have already started planning for how they’ll implement work requirements, decide who’s eligible more frequently and cope with new restrictions on how they draw down federal funds.

  • They’ll also be competing for $50 billion in rural health funding that Congress added to the law — a sum that’s been widely criticized as inadequate.
  • “We are working day and night ever since this bill was passed,” New York’s Medicaid director, Amir Bassiri, said while speaking at a conference in Manhattan in July.
  • “Chances are we will not be able to mitigate all of the impacts of these changes, but we’re going to do everything in our power to do that.”

The other side: 

The new dynamic will force states to think more critically about how taxpayer dollars are being spent in Medicaid, said Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute and a White House official during the first Trump administration.

  • “I want there to be a real budget constraint so [states] have to grapple with the actual cost of these programs,” he said.

Zoom in: 

Many states were already preparing austerity moves before President Trump signed the law. States faced with Medicaid budget crunches often cut or limit benefits they aren’t required to offer, like dental care or home- and community-based services.

  • Other strategies to adjust to the new era of Medicaid funding could include reducing Medicaid payment rates for providers or finding new sources of revenue like additional taxes.
  • A big focus is how well states will track whether recipients are either meeting a requirement to complete 80 hours of work, school or community service a month or are exempt from the rules.
  • Illinois, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Utah and Wisconsin have the highest risk of improperly kicking many eligible people off of Medicaid due to procedural issues, per a recent Georgetown Center for Children and Families report.
  • The report ranked state performance on eight key metrics, including how long Medicaid centers take to answer calls, how long the states take to process new applications and whether they renew eligibility automatically.

Between the lines: 

Congress authorized $200 million in federal funds to help states modernize their infrastructure for determining whether people are eligible for Medicaid.

  • HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said $100 million of the funds will be allocated equally among states, while the other half will be divvied up based on the share of enrollees in the state that will be subject to work requirements.
  • “All funding decisions will be guided by efficiency and legal compliance,” he said in an email.

States are still waiting for guidance and regulations from Medicaid administrators on some of the policy changes, and what kinds of technology they can use to ease the burden of reporting work hours and verifying who’s eligible.

  • Even timelines for getting systems running are up in the air. The budget law gives the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services discretion to let states have up to two more years to get work requirements up and running.

What we’re watching: 

What role health systems and Medicaid advocates have in states’ decision-making processes — and whether they can persuade state lawmakers to make up for some of the federal cuts with state funds.

  • “We’ve always said the cuts to Medicaid are … going to impact so many other parts of state budgets, and so that’s where the fight really is,” said Nicole Jorwic, chief program officer of Caring Across Generations, a nonprofit that advocated against Congress’ health care changes.

ACA premiums set to spike 

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, ACA Premiums, Deferred Healthcare, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, High Premiums, High Prices, Medicaid, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://nxslink.thehill.com/view/6230d94bc22ca34bdd8447c8ofavw.mnb/3a085f61

People who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are set to see a median premium increase of 18 percent, more than double last year’s 7 percent median proposed increase, according to an analysis of preliminary filings by KFF. 

The proposed rates are preliminary and could change before being finalized in late summer. The analysis includes proposed rate changes from 312 insurers in all 50 states and DC. 

It’s the largest rate change insurers have requested since 2018, the last time that policy uncertainty contributed to sharp premium increases. On average, ACA marketplace insurers are raising premiums by about 20 percent in 2026, KFF found. 

Insurers said they wanted higher premiums to cover rising health care costs, like hospitalizations and physician care, as well as prescription drug costs. Tariffs on imported goods could play a role in rising medical costs, but insurers said there was a lot of uncertainty around implementation, and not many insurers were citing tariffs as a reason for higher rates. 

But they are adding in higher increases due to changes being made by the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress. For instance, the majority of insurers said they are taking into account the potential expiration of enhanced premium tax credits. 

Those subsidies, put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic, are set to expire at the end of the year, and there are few signs that Republicans are interested in tackling the issue at all.    

If Congress takes no action, premiums for subsidized enrollees are projected to increase by over 75 percent starting in January 2026, according to KFF. 

But some states are pushing back.  

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) on Wednesday called on the state’s insurance commissioner to disapprove the proposed increases from Centene and Blue Cross Blue Shield. The companies filed increases of up to 54 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively, she said.  

“Arkansas’ Insurance Commissioner is required to disapprove of proposed rate increases if they are excessive or discriminatory, and these are both,” Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.

“I’m calling on my Commissioner to follow the law, reject these insane rate increases, and protect Arkansans.”  

Expect More Hunger in America with Big New Rips to the Safety Net

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Policy, Healthcare Cuts, Healthcare Reform, Hunger, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Eligibility, Medicaid Funding, Medicaid Work Requirements, Public Good, Public Health, Public Interest, Public Welfare, Safety Net, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/expect-more-hunger-in-america-with

The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes deep cuts to the Medicaid program, also puts the food assistance that 41 million low-income Americans rely on in jeopardy. Many of the families currently getting food provided by  the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) stand to lose that support.  

SNAP may well disappear for some families as the federal government moves to trim it. “The cuts are massive and extremely cruel when families need more support, not less,” says Signe Anderson, senior director of nutrition advocacy, at the Tennessee Justice Center in Nashville. 

Government food assistance was established during the Great Depression, but it wasn’t until 1977 that the program became more accessible when the requirement that recipients had to pay for a portion of their food stamps was ended. Throughout its history, foes of the program have tried to dismantle it and may have succeeded as a result of provisions in the bill President Trump signed on July 4. 

The new legislation calls for cutting spending for food stamps by $186 billion through 2034. “Everyone on food stamps will be affected in some way, and many will lose benefits,” Anderson says. “I don’t think the Congress understands the level of necessity in the community for food, health care and mental health treatment, some for the rest of their lives.” 

One major change is being made to work requirements that have historically been part of the Medicaid program, which is administered and partially funded by the states. Anderson points out that under the new arrangements, participants may find the task of enrolling and staying enrolled more onerous. “We see a lot of people cut off already because too many life circumstances make it difficult for them to meet work requirements.”  

Indeed when you look at the changes to SNAP, the first word that might come to mind is ‘draconian.’

To receive benefits those new to the program, and those already on it who are between 55 and 64 and do not have dependent children or who have children 14 and older, will have to prove they work. Or they will have to volunteer at least 20 hours a week or enroll in training programs. Parents of school-aged children will now be required to work.

Some five million people, including about 800,000 children and about a half million adults who are 65 and older, could lose their food benefits.  

The programs the new law targets have been a lifeline for some. Nikole Ralls, a 43-year-old woman in Nashville, who was once a drug addict but now counsels others who need help, says, “I got my life turned around because of Medicaid and SNAP.”  

In a recent memo to state agencies administering the SNAP program, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she was concerned about what was described as abuse of the waiver system by states, noting that the new approach for the SNAP program would prioritize work, education and volunteering over what the department characterized as “idleness and excessive spending.” 

Anderson said, “The public doesn’t understand what hunger looks like and are misinformed about how well-run and streamlined the SNAP program is.”   

“Most of the people who can, do work.  We have parents working two and three jobs,” Anderson said. For families in this predicament food banks, which have become default grocery stores, may be of little help.  They, too, are stretched thin. The Wall Street Journal reported food banks across the country are already straining under rising demand, and some worry there won’t be enough food to meet demand.

GOP faces ‘big, beautiful’ blowback risk on ObamaCare subsidy cuts

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Out of Pocket Expenses, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
GOP faces ‘big, beautiful’ blowback risk on ObamaCare subsidy cuts

Medicaid cuts have received the lion’s share of attention from critics of Republicans’ sweeping tax cuts legislation, but the GOP’s decision not to extend enhanced ObamaCare subsidies could have a much more immediate impact ahead of next year’s midterms. 

Extra subsidies put in place during the coronavirus pandemic are set to expire at the end of the year, and there are few signs Republicans are interested in tackling the issue at all. 

To date, only Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) have spoken publicly about wanting to extend them. 

The absence of an extension in the “big, beautiful bill” was especially notable given the sweeping changes the legislation makes to the health care system, and it gives Democrats an easy message: If Republicans in Congress let the subsidies expire at the end of the year, premiums will spike, and millions of people across the country could lose health insurance.  

In a statement released last month as the House was debating its version of the bill, House and Senate Democratic health leaders pointed out what they said was GOP hypocrisy. 

“Their bill extends hundreds of tax policies that expire at the end of the year. The omission of this policy will cause millions of Americans to lose their health insurance and will raise premiums on 24 million Americans,” wrote Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), House Ways and Means Committee ranking member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and House Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). 

“The Republican failure to stop this premium spike is a policy choice, and it needs to be recognized as such.” 

More than 24 million Americans are enrolled in the insurance marketplace this year, and about 90 percent — more than 22 million people — are receiving enhanced subsidies.

“All of those folks will experience quite large out-of-pocket premium increases,” said Ellen Montz, who helped run the federal ObamaCare exchanges under the Biden administration and is now a managing director with Manatt Health. 

“When premiums become less affordable, you have this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy where the youngest and the healthiest people drop out of the marketplace, and then premiums become even less affordable in the next year,” Montz said. 

The subsidies have been an extremely important driver of ObamaCare enrollment. Experts say if they were to expire, those gains would be erased.  

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 4.2 million people are projected to lose insurance by 2034 if the subsidies aren’t renewed.  

Combined with changes to Medicaid in the new tax cut law, at least 17 million Americans could be uninsured in the next decade. 

The enhanced subsidies increase financial help to make health insurance plans more affordable. Eligible applicants can use the credit to lower insurance premium costs upfront or claim the tax break when filing their return.  

Premiums are expected to increase by more than 75 percent on average, with people in some states seeing their payments more than double, according to health research group KFF. 

Devon Trolley, executive director of Pennie, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange in Pennsylvania, said she expects at least a 30 percent drop in enrollment if the subsidies expire. 

The state starts ramping up its open enrollment infrastructure in mid-August, she said, so time is running short for Congress to act. 

“The only vehicle left for funding the tax credits, if they were to extend them, would be the government funding bill with a deadline of September 30, which we really see as the last possible chance for Congress to do anything,” Trolley said. 

Trolley said three-quarters of enrollees in the state’s exchange have never purchased coverage without the enhanced tax credits in place.  

“They don’t know sort of a prior life of when the coverage was 82 percent more expensive. And we are very concerned this is going to come as a huge sticker shock to people, and that is going to significantly erode enrollment,” Trolley said.  

The enhanced subsidies were first put into effect during the height of the coronavirus pandemic as part of former President Biden’s 2021 economic recovery law and then extended as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. 

The CBO said permanently extending the subsidies would cost $358 billion over the next 10 years. 

Republicans have balked at the cost. They argue the credits hide the true cost of the health law and subsidize Americans who don’t need the help. They also argue the subsidies have been a driver of fraudulent enrollment by unscrupulous brokers seeking high commissions. 

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, last year said Congress should reject extending the subsidies. 

The Republican Study Committee’s 2025 fiscal budget said the subsidies “only perpetuate a never-ending cycle of rising premiums and federal bailouts — with taxpayers forced to foot the bill.” 

But since 2020, enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace has grown faster in the states won by President Trump in 2024, primarily rural Southern red states that haven’t expanded Medicaid. Explaining to millions of Americans why their health insurance premiums are suddenly too expensive for them to afford could be politically unpopular for Republicans.

According to a recent KFF survey, 45 percent of Americans who buy their own health insurance through the ACA exchanges identify as Republican or lean Republican. Three in 10 said they identify as “Make America Great Again” supporters. 

“So much of that growth has just been a handful of Southern red states … Texas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas,” said Cynthia Cox, vice president at KFF and director of the firm’s ACA program. “That’s where I think we’re going to see a lot more people being uninsured.” 

Congress Could Force Patients in Rural America To Make Dire Medical Care Choices

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Bankruptcy, Financial Distress, Financial Instability, Financial Stewardship, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Rural Health, Rural Hospital, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/congress-could-force-patients-in?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=255152&post_id=166944373&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59t65&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

New Medicaid funding rules proposed by Congress this week would halt efforts at the state level to better fund rural hospitals and deliver services to the most vulnerable populations in those areas. You can be certain that the administrators and staff of those hospitals, as well as leaders of the communities they serve, are watching closely to see if the cuts are enacted. 

Lawmakers at the federal level are trying to make deeper cuts to Medicaid spending in an effort to lower the amount of deficit spending that would be created by President Trump’s spending plan. Trump has dubbed the plan his “big beautiful bill.” 

Feds Would Strip Rural Hospitals of Lifeline Funds

Republican members of the Senate Finance Committee this week released their version of the bill that would drain funding for rural hospitals, which rely heavily on Medicaid funds to treat patients. It’s estimated that 25 to 40 percent of services provided by such hospitals are funded by Medicaid.

The federal government and states share the up-front medical costs for Medicaid patients. The federal government then reimburses states up to 50 percent of their Medicaid spending every year.

Many states fund their portion of the cost by taxing entities that provide those services to Medicaid patients.

The latest proposal in Congress would not only restrict how many patients could receive benefits, but it would also stop states from implementing those provider tax programs to help fund Medicaid services provided to residents.

At the federal level, the thinking is that if states keep taxing providers to fund Medicaid services, then the federal government will have to keep reimbursing states a portion of those costs. 

The downside to that is many experts, along with several Republicans in Congress, namely Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Josh Hawley of Missouri, have predicted it will decimate rural hospitals.

West Virginia Republican Sen. Jim Justice went a step further, saying that the plan to limit states’ use of provider taxes will “really hurt a lot of folks.” Despite that statement, Justice said he is OK with the freeze.

State Lawmakers Sound the Alarm

There are 39 states with at least three or more provider taxes used to help fund Medicaid services. Alaska is the only state with no such tax.

Some states, such as Ohio, have set up a new rural hospital fund using provider taxes to help rural hospitals deliver Medicaid services to patients.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and the Republican-led state legislature set up a pilot program called the Rural Ohio Hospital Tax Pilot Program. The measure would allow counties to levy a tax on their local hospitals that would then be used to fund Medicaid services.

DeWine said the pilot program would help ease the financial stress rural hospitals face in Ohio. The plan contained in Ohio House Bill 96 has the blessing of the Ohio Hospital Association.

That state fund reportedly would be neutered by the federal proposal. Ohio has at least three different provider taxes.  

A group of Republican state lawmakers recently sent a letter to their federal counterparts pleading with them to remove the bill language because it would “torpedo” plans to keep rural hospitals functioning.

The American Hospital Association, a 130-year-old trade group of more than 5,000 hospitals and health care providers, this month released the impact on rural hospitals if this plan went into effect.

 More than $50 billion would be lost by 2034, and more than 1.8 million rural Americans would lose health benefits.

Kentucky residents would be impacted the most, with 143,000 losing benefits, followed by 135,000 Californians. More than 86,000 Ohioans would lose Medicaid coverage under the plan by 2034, making it the third most impacted state.

To blunt the effects of the cuts, Collins reportedly is proposing the establishment of a $100 billion relief fund that could provide financial support to affected providers, rural hospitals in particular. Whether that or a similar but smaller fund will wind up in the final draft of the legislation apparently will be decided this weekend. Meanwhile, the Senate parliamentarian has ruled against many of the provisions of the Senate version of the bill, including the Finance Committee’s provider tax framework, which puts the whole thing in flux.

Senate leaders say they plan a long series of votes on amendments of the bill on Sunday. The “vote-arama” likely will go on throughout Sunday night and into Monday. If the Senate does pass its version of the bill, it will have to go back to the House. Lawmakers are under a self-imposed deadline to get the legislation to Trump by the July 4 holiday.