Coronavirus updates: U.S. infections top 76,000 in a day as virus’s spread continues unabated

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/18/coronavirus-updates-us-infections-top-76000-day-virus-spread-continues-unabated/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3cnVHnhbmPw7a_og-oZc1Ocgfs-A_y4Qr6Ht8OKDkxpiWv7E7ydb67EqA

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York ...

The United States on Friday set another record for daily coronavirus infections, with states reporting a combined 76,403 new confirmed cases — more than double the amount the country was reporting daily during the initial surge of cases in the spring.

Coronavirus-related deaths are rising, too, after declining nationally throughout May and June. The country reported 963 fatalities from the virus Friday, the most in a single day since June 3.

Here are some other significant developments:

  • A federal appeals court blocked a lower-court ruling that would have allowed the Republican Party of Texas to proceed with its planned in-person convention in downtown Houston. Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) said the event poses too great a health risk with infections in the area spiraling out of control. “In the middle of a pandemic, the doors remain locked,” Sylvester said of the appeals court’s decision.
  • The nine largest brick-and-mortar retail companies — including Walmart, Lowe’s and CVS — have adopted new policies requiring customers to wear masks inside U.S. stores.
  • President Trump affirmed in a Fox News interview he does not favor requiring face coverings nationwide. “I want people to have a certain freedom,” Trump told Chris Wallace in an interview set to air in full on Sunday.
  • California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday announced new guidelines that will bar schools in 32 hotspot counties from reopening in the fall unless they meet strict standards for preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) said Friday the state’s schools must resume in-person instruction.

Infections and deaths are rising in states around the country, led by Texas, California, Florida, Georgia and Arizona. Texas on Friday reported a record 14,916 new cases and 174 new deaths related to the virus. Other states, including Ohio, Utah and the Carolinas, have reported single-day records in the past week.

The sharp increases have prompted many states to adopt new public health measures to prevent the virus spread. California ordered most of its schools to conduct remote instruction in the new academic year unless counties can meet strict benchmarks for reducing community transmission. More than half of all U.S. states have instituted some form of statewide mask requirements, including Alabama and Arkansas, where governors previously balked at mask mandates.

 

 

 

The Unchecked Rise in Cases Turns Deadly: This Week in COVID-19 Data, July 16

https://covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-update-unchecked-new-cases-turn-deadly

COVID-19 metrics by week, Apr 3 - Jul 15

 

The US is approaching half a million new cases of COVID-19 each week. States with major outbreaks including Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas all saw record high weekly hospitalizations and deaths. Meanwhile, worsening outbreaks in many other states threaten to increase the pandemic’s death toll in the coming weeks.

This week, about 435,000 Americans were diagnosed with COVID-19. This is our fourth week of big increases in the number of new cases, and the results of this case surge are becoming clear. As of July 15, more than 56,000 people are currently in the hospital with COVID-19 in the United States. This week, states reported that 4,872 more people have died of COVID-19, an increase of nearly 29 percent from the previous week.

 

There are no surprises in these new death numbers: people are dying of COVID-19 in the same places where cases have been surging and COVID-19 hospital admissions have spiked. Fourteen states reported more than 100 COVID-19 deaths in the last week, and eight of those states were in the South, the region so far hit hardest in the second surge of cases. Slightly fewer than half the deaths were reported by the four states with the biggest outbreaks—ArizonaCaliforniaFlorida, and Texas—and most of the rest were distributed down the Eastern Seaboard and across the South.

New reported deaths by state and census region, Jul 9- Jul 15

 

Our national view of how many people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 is clearer now that Florida has finally released current hospitalization data. With hospitalizations from Florida’s outbreak accounted for, the national hospitalization figures are approaching their previous peak levels from April of this year.

Currently Hospitalized, March 1 - Jul 15

Hospital data has been in the news for other reasons as well. The US Department of Health and Human Services has directed hospitals to report COVID-19 data directly to HHSrather than to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At The COVID Tracking Project, we compile all our data from official state and territorial sources—not from any federal agency. Nevertheless, we have already seen state-level hospital data go dark in at least one state, Idaho, as a result of the new HHS directive. We hope and expect that hospital reporting through many states will continue uninterrupted, and we’ll be reporting what we learn about states’ experience with the new directive.

Outside of the five states with the biggest outbreaks, several other states posted alarming data this week. In several states across the South, case growth is smaller in absolute terms, but the trends we see this week mirror those we saw in Arizona and Florida a few weeks ago. We hope not to see those trends continue and result in the huge case spikes—and subsequent large increases in hospitalizations and deaths—that we saw in the states worst hit in the pandemic’s second surge.

Key metrics comparison - top 5 states

 

Public health interventions in these states have varied widely this week. In AlabamaLouisiana, and Mississippi, new mask orders and other restrictions have gone into effect. North Carolina has been under a mask order since June 25, and has reported a less explosive rise in new case growth than the other four states we’re watching in this group of southern states. In Georgia, the governor has explicitly voided local mask orders in Georgia cities and counties.

This week, US states and territories reported more than five million COVID-19 tests in a single week—a major achievement amid continuing testing shortages in many areas. For context, the Harvard Global Health Institute estimates that the United States will need to perform at least 8.4 million tests per week to slow the spread of the virus, and 30 million tests per week to suppress the pandemic.

Weekly reported tests, May 5 - Jul 15

 

You can learn all about our data compilation process, including an overview of our collection and publication process, our data sourcing policy, and exact definitions of the data points we track here on our website and in our API. To keep up to date on our work, follow us on Twitter and join our low-frequency email list.

 

 

Cartoon – Welcome to Dysfunctional Corp.

Cartoon – Welcome to Dysfunction Corp | HENRY KOTULA

Florida And Texas Both Set Coronavirus Death Records Thursday

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/16/florida-and-texas-both-set-coronavirus-death-records-thursday/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailydozen&cdlcid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#226e63bb720a

Florida coronavirus: State marks Covid-19 case record as July ...

TOPLINE

Coronavirus deaths are again on the rise in the U.S., with all three of the nation’s largest states setting new highs for daily death tolls Thursday following weeks of record increases in new cases and hospitalizations, even as President Donald Trump and other conservatives have touted death statistics as a sign the U.S. is handling the pandemic well.

KEY FACTS

California, Texas and Florida all reported new record daily highs for deaths Thursday.

California reported 149 deaths, while Florida reported 120 and Texas set a new record for the third-straight day, with 105.

Deaths are rising rapidly in Texas, with the 105 deaths breaking Wednesday’s record of 98, which shattered the record of 60 that was set on Tuesday.

Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. declined from early May through mid-June, but have picked up recently, and are now pacing at just under 1,000 per day.

The rise is being driven by record new death tolls in the nation’s largest states—the same states that have in large part contributed to the U.S.’s record rise in new cases recently.

Experts have said that deaths lag behind increases in cases and hospitalizations, with former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb saying in an interview Sunday that “the total number of deaths is going to start going up again.”

KEY BACKGROUND

Coronavirus deaths reached a peak nationally in April through early May with over 2,000 a day on many days, largely driven by the severe outbreak in New York. Now the pandemic has eased in the Northeast while states in the South and West are the new national epicenters for coronavirus.

CHIEF CRITICS

Trump and Republican politicians had used the decline in deaths and a decrease in mortality rates to argue that the U.S. response to coronavirus has worked. However, there has also been a massive increase in testing, meaning that many less severe cases are now being identified.

BIG NUMBER

4.3%. According to Johns Hopkins University, that’s what the current mortality rate is among confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S., a number that’s continually dropped as testing has increased. However, health experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci said early on in the pandemic that they believe the actual mortality rate is around 1%, which is still at least 10 times the lethality of the seasonal flu. And Gottlieb noted that even if the reported death rate continues to drop, if there is an increase in infections, the amount of deaths will ultimately rise, as well.

CRITICAL QUOTE

“It’s a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death,” Fauci said on Tuesday, adding “There’s so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus, don’t get yourself into false complacency.”

 

 

 

Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-pbc-health-director-covid-children-20200714-xcdall2tsrd4riim2nwokvmsxm-story.html

Nearly One-Third Of Children Tested For COVID In Florida Are ...

Palm Beach County’s health director warns of risk of long-term damage.

Nearly one-in-three children tested for the new coronavirus in Florida has been positive, and a South Florida health official is concerned the disease could cause lifelong damage even for children with mild illness.

Dr. Alina Alonso, Palm Beach County’s health department director, warned county commissioners Tuesday that much is unknown about the long-term health consequences for children who catch COVID-19.

X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said.

“They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children. … We don’t know how that is going to manifest a year from now or two years from now,” Alonso said. “Is that child going to have chronic pulmonary problems or not?”

Her comments stand in contrast to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ messaging that children are at low risk, and classrooms need to be reopened in the fall. DeSantis has said he would be comfortable sending his children to school if they were old enough to attend.

Some studies suggest that children are less likely to catch COVID-19 than adults. Children are also far less likely to die of the disease. About 17,000 of Florida’s roughly 287,800 cases have been people younger than 18. Of the 4,514 COVID-19 deaths reported by Florida as of Tuesday, four have been younger than 18.

Still, it’s possible COVID-19 could have long-term consequences that will take time to understand, Alonso said.

“This is not the virus you bring everybody together to make sure you catch it and get it over with,” she said. “This is something serious, and we are learning new information about this virus every day.”

State statistics also show the percentage of children testing positive is much higher than the population as a whole. Statewide, about 31% of 54,022 children tested have been positive. The state’s positivity rate for the entire population is about 11%.

Researchers have linked a serious and potentially deadly inflammatory condition with COVID-19 in children. The condition, called pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome, doesn’t appear to be widespread. The Florida Department of Health lists 13 confirmed cases of the syndrome.

Dr. Jorge Perez, co-founder of Kidz Medical Services, said it’s too early to say how common and severe long-term damage could be from COVID-19, but early evidence suggests some children infected with the virus could have lasting damage.

“We are learning something every day,” said Perez, who operates pediatric offices throughout South Florida. “We have to be knowledgeable about this and continue to monitor to see what effects it has in children.”

DeSantis told talk radio host Rush Limbaugh last week that the risk to children is “very low.”

“I’ve got a 3-year-old daughter, 2-year-old son, and a newborn daughter,” DeSantis said in the radio interview. “And I can tell you if they were school age, I would have zero concern sending them.”

 

 

Unpublished White House Coronavirus Task Force Report – 18 States in Red Zone

https://mailchi.mp/publicintegrity/exclusive-white-house-docs-shows-18-states-in-coronavirus-red-zone?e=4539e77864

An unpublished document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity suggests more than a dozen states should revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.

The document, dated July 14, says 18 states are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive. 

It includes county-level data and reflects the insistence of the Trump administration that states and counties should take the lead in responding to the coronavirus. The document has been shared within the federal government but does not appear to be posted publicly.

It’s clear some states are not following the task force’s advice. For instance, the document recommends that Georgia, in the red zone for both cases and test positivity, “mandate statewide wearing of cloth face coverings outside the home.” But Gov. Brian Kemp signed an order Wednesday banning localities from requiring masks.

 

 

 

 

The U.S. is way behind on coronavirus contact tracing. Here’s how we can catch up.

The U.S. is way behind on coronavirus contact tracing. Here’s how we can catch up.

The US is amassing an army of contact tracers to contain the covid ...

Get this: Vietnam, a country of 97 million people, has reported zero deaths from only 372 cases of coronavirus.

Theories abound about how they pulled it off. But public health experts chalk it up to swift action by the Vietnamese government, including contact tracing, mass testing, lockdowns, and compulsory wearing of masks.

Here, masks have become a political landmine. And despite President Trump claiming, “We have the greatest testing program anywhere in the world,” some states with surging infections have testing shortages—like Arizona.

But what about contact tracing, the process of calling potentially exposed people and persuading them to quarantine?

“I don’t think we’re doing very well,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, when asked in June about contact tracing nationwide. Most states haven’t even made public how fast or well they’re implementing the process, if at all.

Florida, the nation’s current No. 1 hotspot for the virus, is often failing to trace positive cases. This, despite the state spending over $27 million on a contract with Maximus, a company notorious for underbidding, understaffing, and performing poorly on government services contracts in multiple states.

Yet, there are bright spots elsewhere. California allocated 5 percent of staff across 90 state government departments to contact trace. North Carolina’s Wake County trained 110 librarians. In Massachusetts, counties have used state pandemic funds to hire more nurses.

There are three reasons why state and local governments should reassign public employees or hire new staff outright as the country—finally—ramps up contact tracing.

One, outsourcing what should be a public job to for-profit companies like Maximus reduces transparencylimits democratic decision-makinglowers service quality, and increases inequality, all while rarely saving public dollars. Public control is particularly important when it comes to contact tracing, which involves personal health data.

Two, this is a chance to begin to reverse decades of cuts to public health budgets, which have made the worst public health crisis in a century even worse. Almost a quarter of the local public health workforce has been let go since 2008. Federal spending on nondefense discretionary programs like public health is now at a historic low.

The Trump administration, as expected, is headed in the wrong direction. On Tuesday, it stripped the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of control over coronavirus data. State and local governments must do all they can to right the ship.

And three, contact tracing is an opportunity to chip away at systemic racism. Since World War II, public sector employment has helped equalize American society by offering workers of color stable, well-paid employment. The median wage earned by Black employees is significantly higher in the public sector than in private industries.

Privatizing public work like contact tracing contributes to racial and gender income disparities. Workers at federal call centers operated by Maximus, for example, are predominately women and people of color paid poverty wages as low as $10.80 an hour with unaffordable health care.

If #BlackLivesMatter—as many governors and mayors across the country have proclaimed in recent weeks—then contact tracing should be treated as what it is: a public good.

To catch up to other countries like Vietnam, the U.S. needs to get contact tracing right—and that means doing it with public workers.

 

 

 

 

Over 224,000 COVID-19 deaths forecast in U.S. by November 1, says University of Washington’s IHME

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-forecast/over-224000-covid-19-deaths-forecast-in-u-s-by-november-1-says-university-of-washingtons-ihme-idUSKCN24G1S9?fbclid=IwAR19qY7KM_P4bPIMnlP7ax1fB2xXu8Pf4GOxZoar-p2aey6elaVI_SXW4-Y

Over 224,000 COVID-19 deaths forecast in US by November 1, says ...

A newly revised University of Washington model projects the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 will climb to just above 224,000 by Nov. 1, up 16,000 from a prior forecast, due to rising infections and hospitalizations in many states.

But the latest forecast from the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), released late on Tuesday, also predicts the death toll could be reduced by 40,000 if nearly all Americans wore masks in public.

“Use of masks is up, but not as high as it should be. If 95% of Americans wore masks each time they left their homes, infection rates would drop, hospitalizations would drop, and forecast deaths would drop,” the IHME said in a statement.

The IHME’s new forecast came after Alabama, Florida and North Carolina on Tuesday reported record daily increases in deaths from COVID-19, marking grim new milestones of a second wave of infections surging across much of the U.S.

The new IHME forecast – 224,089 U.S. lives lost by Nov. 1 – was revised upward from the 208,254 deaths projected on July 7.

At least 136,052 Americans have died from COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, while reported U.S. infections have surpassed 3.4 million, according to a tally by Reuters.

The IHME’s projections have been cited in the past by the White House and are watched closely by public health officials.

 

 

 

 

The burden on teachers

https://www.axios.com/teachers-worry-school-reopening-coronavirus-4f173e1b-f48f-49ad-a319-0b053ddd7295.html

The burden on teachers in reopening the schools - Axios

The debate over whether and how much to re-open schools in the fall has put teachers in the precarious position of choosing between their own safety and the pressures from some parents and local officials.

Why it matters: Teachers are the core of K-12 education. The people we depend on to educate our society’s children may end up bearing the brunt of both the risk and the workload.

What’s happening: With coronavirus cases spiking in many parts of the U.S., districts are weighing the feasibility of keeping classes all virtual, as Los Angeles and San Diego are doing, or conducting a rotation of in-person and remote lessons.

While all back-to-school options have pros and cons, there are specific worries for teachers.

1. Exposure: Despite a child’s overall low health risk if they contract COVID-19, scientists still do not conclusively know if schools could become hotspots for more vulnerable populations.

  • Schools are on a time and money crunch for better ventilation, more disinfectant and masks and proper social distancing techniques. If a cluster of cases do occur, teachers and parents are short on answers about how to isolate students and contact trace.
  • Districts were already facing staffing shortages before the pandemic. And nearly 1.5 million teachers have a condition that puts them at increased risk of serious illness from coronavirus, per a Kaiser Family Foundation study. A separate KFF study out today found that 3.3 million adults age 65 or older live in a household with school-age children.
  • A study in Germany found that infections in schools had not led to outbreaks in the community. But an analysis of a surge of cases in Israel found that nearly half the reported cases in June were traced back to illness in schools.

“We as teachers prepare for active shooters, tornadoes, fires and I’m fully prepared to take a bullet or shield a child from falling debris during a tornado. But if I somehow get it and I’m asymptomatic and I get a student sick and something happens to them or one of their family members, that’s a guilt I would carry with me forever.”

— Michelle Albright, a second grade teacher from northwest Indiana

2. Difficulty of a hybrid approach: Many school districts like New York City are opting to split school between in-person and online to minimize exposure. That’s an effective but more burdensome approach for teachers, top teachers union chief Randi Weingarten told Axios’ Dan Primack Monday.

  • In-person contact with a teacher can make a big difference for students struggling with a concept or who need one-on-one time.
  • But many teachers will have to prepare virtual and in-person lessons and ensure the same learning outcomes for students in both settings — a tall order.

3. Child care availability: Teachers with children of their own are concerned about how to care for them when they are teaching.

  • States could choose to provide child care services for educators as essential employees, but it’s unclear what non-school child care options will be available in areas with high infection rates or where day care centers have struggled to stay in business.

4. Concerns of other school staff: Bus drivers, custodians, classroom aides, administrative staff, cafeteria workers, school nurses and substitute teachers may come in contact with more children throughout the day because they are less likely than teachers to be confined to a single classroom.

What to watch: School districts ought to be finding other roles for teachers who are not comfortable returning to the classroom, such as reassigning them to virtual-only roles or providing one-on-one online tutoring sessions with students, said John Bailey, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former domestic policy adviser during the George W. Bush administration.

  • But there’s not much time to sort that out on top of getting teachers the professional development they need for effective remote learning.
  • “What I worry about is that we squandered the few months we had to make sure we can think through these challenges,” Bailey said. “This was one of the most obvious challenges facing schools with reopening and we should have been thinking about that for the last several months. Instead it’s creeping up on districts.”

The bottom line: Due to the unprecedented nature of this pandemic, teachers are worried about the uncertainties and, in some cases, lack of clear planning should conditions worsen. That may drive some to quit teaching altogether.

  • “You’ve got 25% of teachers who may be in either a high-risk situation because of pre-existing conditions or because of age, and a lot of them, if they can, they may just check out and say ‘nobody’s taking care of me. I can’t go back,'” Weingarten said.

 

 

 

 

Cartoon – We’re way beyond Rational Thinking

Management Cartoon # 7684: We're way beyond rational thinking. You ...