America’s Hospitals Need a Makeover

A couple of months ago, I got a call from a CEO of a regional health system—a long-time client and one of the smartest and most committed executives I know. This health system lost tens of millions of dollars in fiscal year 2022 and the CEO told me that he had come to the conclusion that he could not solve a problem of this magnitude with the usual and traditional solutions. Pushing the pre-Covid managerial buttons was just not getting the job done.

This organization is fiercely independent. It has been very successful in almost every respect for many years. It has had an effective and stable board and management team over the past 30 to 40 years.

But when the CEO looked at the current situation—economic, social, financial, operational, clinical—he saw that everything has changed and he knew that his healthcare organization needed to change as well. The system would not be able to return to profitability just by doing the same things it would have done five years or 10 years ago. Instead of looking at a small number of factors and making incremental improvements, he wanted to look across the total enterprise all at once. And to look at all aspects of the enterprise with an eye toward organizational renovation.

I said, “So, you want a makeover.”

The CEO is right. In an environment unlike anything any of us have experienced, and in an industry of complex interdependencies, the only way to get back to financial equilibrium is to take a comprehensive, holistic view of our organizations and environments, and to be open to an outcome in which we do things very differently.

In other words, a makeover.

Consider just a few areas that the hospital makeover could and should address:

There’s the REVENUE SIDE: Getting paid for what you are doing and the severity of the patient you are treating—which requires a focus on clinical documentation improvement and core revenue cycle delivery—and looking for any material revenue diversification opportunities.

There is the relationship with payers: Involving a mix of growth, disruption, and optimization strategies to increase payments, grow share of wallet, or develop new revenue streams.

There’s the EXPENSE SIDE: Optimizing workforce performance, focusing on care management and patient throughput, rethinking the shared services infrastructure, and realizing opportunities for savings in administrative services, purchased services, and the supply chain. While these have been historic areas of focus, organizations must move from an episodic to a constant, ongoing approach.

There’s the BALANCE SHEET: Establishing a parallel balance sheet strategy that will create the bridge across the operational makeover by reconfiguring invested assets and capital structure, repositioning the real estate portfolio, and optimizing liquidity management and treasury operations.

There is NETWORK REDESIGN: Ensuring that the services offered across the network are delivered efficiently and that each market and asset is optimized; reducing redundancy, increasing quality, and improving financial performance.

There is a whole concept around PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION: Developing a deep understanding of how the various components of your business perform, and how to optimize, scale back, or partner to drive further value and operational performance.

Incrementalism is a long-held business approach in healthcare, and for good reason. Any prominent change has the potential to affect the health of communities and those changes must be considered carefully to ensure that any outcome of those changes is a positive one. Any ill-considered action could have unintended consequences for any of a hospital’s many constituencies.

But today, incrementalism is both unrealistic and insufficient.

Just for starters, healthcare executive teams must recognize that back-office expenses are having a significant and negative impact on the ability of hospitals to make a sufficient operating margin. And also, healthcare executive teams must further realize that the old concept of “all things to all people” is literally bringing parts of the hospital industry toward bankruptcy.

As I described in a previous blog post, healthcare comprises some of the most wicked problems in our society—problems that are complex, that have no clear solution, and for which a solution intended to fix one aspect of a problem may well make other aspects worse.

The very nature of wicked problems argues for the kind of comprehensive approach that the CEO of this organization is taking—not tackling one issue at a time in linear fashion but making a sophisticated assessment of multiple solutions and studying their potential interdependencies, interactions, and intertwined effects.

My colleague Eric Jordahl has noted that “reverting to a 2019 world is not going to happen, which means that restructuring is the only option. . . . Where we are is not sustainable and waiting for a reversion is a rapidly decaying option.”

The very nature of the socioeconomic environment makes doing nothing or taking an incremental approach untenable. It is clearly beyond time for the hospital industry makeover.

29 health systems ranked by operating margins

The median year-to-date operating margin index for hospitals improved slightly in April to 0 percent. While recent reports show signs of improving margins, they remain far below historical norms, and inflation and workforce expenses continue to challenge hospitals’ bottom lines.

“Hospital and health system leaders must figure out how to navigate the new financial reality and begin to take action,” Erik Swanson, senior vice president of data and analytics with Kaufman Hall, said in a May 31 report. “In the face of operating margins that may never fully recover and inflated expenses, developing and executing a strategic path forward to a future that is financially sustainable is crucial.”

Here are 29 health systems ranked by their operating margins in the first quarter: 

1. Tenet Healthcare (Dallas)

Revenue: $5.02 billion
Expenses: $4.48 billion
Operating income/loss: $603 million
Operating margin: 12 percent

2. HCA Healthcare (Nashville, Tenn.)

Revenue: $15.59 billion
Expenses: $13.67 billion
Operating income/loss: $1.54 billion
Operating margin: 9.9 percent

3. Community Health Systems (Franklin, Tenn.)

Revenue: $3.108 billion
Expenses: $3.111 billion
Operating income/loss: $210 million
Operating margin: 6.7 percent

4. BJC HealthCare (St. Louis)

Revenue: $1.72 billion
Expenses: $1.67 billion
Operating income/loss: $59.5 million 
Operating margin: 3.5 percent

5. Banner Health (Phoenix)

Revenue: $3.51 billion
Expenses: $3.38 billion
Operating income/loss: $128 million
Operating margin: 3.6 percent

6. Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minn.)

Revenue: $4.27 billion
Expenses: $4.12 billion
Operating income/loss: $149 million
Operating margin: 3.5 percent

7. Intermountain Health (Salt Lake City)

Revenue: $3.99 billion
Expenses: $3.70 billion
Operating income/loss: $104 million
Operating margin: 2.6 percent

8. Sutter Health (Sacramento, Calif.)

Revenue: $3.82 billion 
Expenses: $3.74 billion
Operating income/loss: $88 million 
Operating margin: 2.3 percent

9. IU Health (Indianapolis)

Revenue: $2.08 billion
Expenses: $2.04 billion
Operating income/loss: $45.1 million
Operating margin: 2.1 percent

10. Trinity Health (Livona, Mich.) 

*Data is for nine-month period 
Revenue: $15.95 billion
Expenses: $16.21 billion
Operating income/loss: ($283.5 million) 
Operating margin: 1.8 percent

11. Montefiore (New York City) 

Revenue: $1.91 billion
Expenses: $1.88 billion
Operating income/loss: $32 million
Operating margin: 1.7 percent

12. UPMC (Pittsburgh)

Revenue: $6.9 billion
Expenses: $6.8 billion
Operating income/loss: $100.4 million
Operating margin: 1.5 percent

13. ThedaCare (Appleton, Wis.)

Revenue: $306.4 million
Expenses: $302.8 million
Operating income/loss: $3.6 million
Operating margin: 1.2 percent

14. Cleveland Clinic

Revenue: $3.51 billion
Expenses: $3.28 billion
Operating income/loss: $32.3 million
Operating margin: 0.9 percent

15. Kaiser Permanente (Oakland, Calif.)

Revenue: $25.2 billion
Expenses: $25 billion
Operating income/loss: $233 million
Operating margin: 0.9 percent

16. Advocate Health (Charlotte, N.C.)

Revenue: $7.54 billion
Expenses: $7.53 billion
Operating income/loss: $10.4 million
Operating margin: 0.1 percent

17. Universal Health Services (King of Prussia, Pa.)

Revenue: $3.47 billion
Expenses: $3.19 billion
Operating income/loss: $278,700
Operating margin: 0 percent

18. MedStar Health (Columbia, Md.)

Revenue: $1.928 billion
Expenses: $1.927 billion
Operating income/loss: $400,000 
Operating margin: 0 percent

19. Geisinger (Danville, Pa.)

Revenue: $1.84 billion
Expenses: $1.88 billion
Operating income/loss: ($36,068)
Operating margin: 0 percent

20. Mass General Brigham

Revenue: $4.5 billion
Expenses: $4.5 billion
Operating income/loss: ($6 million)
Operating margin: (0.1 percent)

21. Novant Health (Winston-Salem, N.C.) 

Revenue: $1.939 billion
Expenses: $1.954 billion
Operating income/loss: ($15.18 million) 
Operating margin: (0.8 percent)

22. Scripps Health

Revenue: $1.01 billion
Expenses: $1.03 billion
Operating income/loss: ($22.2 million) 
Operating margin: (2.2 percent)

23. UnityPoint Health

Revenue: $1.09 billion
Expenses: $1.12 billion
Operating income/loss: ($29.03 million)
Operating margin: (2.7 percent)

24. SSM Health (St. Louis)

Revenue: $2.46 billion 
Expenses: $2.53 billion
Operating income/loss: ($68.4 million)
Operating margin: (2.8 percent)

25. Marshfield (Wis.) Clinic

Revenue: $779.7 million
Expenses: $812.3 million
Operating income/loss: (32.6 million)
Operating margin: (4.2 percent)

26. Providence (Renton, Wash.) 

Revenue: $6.8 billion
Expenses: $7.145 billion
Operating income/loss: ($345 million)
Operating margin: (5.1 percent)

27. MultiCare (Tacoma, Wash.) 

Revenue: $1.16 billion
Expenses: $1.22 billion
Operating income/loss: ($59.9 million)
Operating margin: (5.2 percent)

28. CommonSpirit (Chicago) 

Revenue: $8.3 billion
Expenses: $8.9 billion
Operating income/loss: ($658 million) 
Operating margin: (8 percent)

29. Ascension (St. Louis)

Revenue: $6.94 billion 
Expenses: $7.62 billion 
Operating income/loss: ($1.36 billion)
Operating margin: (19.6 percent)

Headwinds facing Not for Profit Hospital Systems are Mounting: What’s Next?

Correction: An earlier version incorrectly referenced a Texas deal between Houston Methodist and Baylor Scott and White.  News about deals is sensitive and unnecessarily disruptive to reputable organizations like these. I sourced this news from a reputable deal advisor: it was inaccurate. My apology!

Congressional Republicans and the White House spared Main Street USA the pain of defaulting on the national debt last week. No surprise.

Also not surprising: another not-for-profit-mega deal was announced:

  • St. Louis, MO-based BJC HealthCare and Kansas City, MO-based Saint Luke’s Health System announced their plan to form a $9.5B revenue, 28-hospital system with facilities in Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois.

This follows recent announcements by four other NFP systems seeking the benefits of larger scale:

  • Gundersen Health System & Bellin Health (Nov 2022): 11 hospitals, combined ’22 revenue of $2.425B
  • Froedtert Health & ThedaCare (Apr 2023 LOI): 18 hospitals, combined ’22 revenues of $4.6B

And all these moves are happening in an increasingly dicey environment for large, not-for-profit hospital system operators:

  • Increased negative media attention to not-for-profit business practices that, to critics, appear inconsistent with a “NFP” organization’s mission and an inadequate trade for tax exemptions each receives.
  • Decreased demand for inpatient services—the core business for most NFP hospital operations. Though respected sources (Strata, Kaufman Hall, Deloitte, IBIS et al) disagree somewhat on the magnitude and pace of the decline, all forecast decreased demand for traditional hospital inpatient services even after accounting for an increasingly aging population, a declining birthrate, higher acuity in certain inpatient populations (i.e. behavioral health, ortho-neuro et al) and hospital-at-home services.
  • Increased hostility between national insurers and hospitals over price transparency and operating costs.
  • Increased employer, regulator and consumer concern about the inadequacy of hospital responsiveness to affordability in healthcare.
  • And heightened antitrust scrutiny by the FTC which has targeted hospital consolidation as a root cause of higher health costs and fewer choices for consumers. This view is shared by the majorities of both parties in the House of Representatives.

In response, Boards and management in these organizations assert…

  • Health Insurers—especially investor-owned national plans—enjoy unfettered access to capital to fund opportunistic encroachment into the delivery of care vis a vis employment of physicians, expansion of outpatient services and more.
  • Private equity funds enjoy unfettered opportunities to invest for short-term profits for their limited partners while planning exits from local communities in 6 years or less.
  • The payment system for hospitals is fundamentally flawed: it allows for underpayments by Medicaid and Medicare to be offset by secret deals between health insurers and hospitals. It perpetuates firewalls between social services and care delivery systems, physical and behavioral health and others despite evidence of value otherwise. It requires hospitals to be the social safety net in every community regardless of local, state or federal funding to offset these costs.

These reactions are understandable. But self-reflection is also necessary. To those outside the hospital world, lack of hospital price transparency is an excuse. Every hospital bill is a surprise medical bill. Supporting the community safety net is an insignificant but manageable obligation for those with tax exemption status.  Advocacy efforts to protect against 340B cuts and site-neutral payment policies are about grabbing/keeping extra revenue for the hospital. What is means to be a “not-for-profit” anything in healthcare is misleading since moneyball is what all seem to play. And short of government-run hospitals, many think price controls might be the answer.

My take:

The headwinds facing large not-for-profit hospitals systems are strong. They cannot be countered by contrarian messaging alone.

What’s next for most is a new wave of operating cost reductions even as pre-pandemic volumes are restored because the future is not a repeat of the past. Being bigger without operating smarter and differently is a recipe for failure.

What’s necessary is a reset for the entire US health system in which not-for-profit systems play a vital role. That discussion should be led by leaders of the largest NFP systems with the full endorsements of their boards and support of large employers, physicians and public health leaders in their communities.

Everything must be on the table: funding, community benefits, tax exemption, executive compensation, governance, administrative costs, affordability, social services, coverage et al. And mechanisms for inaction and delays disallowed.

It’s a unique opportunity for not-for-profit hospitals. It can’t wait.

Trinity Health sees improving margins but still operating at a loss despite gains in Q3

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/providers/trinity-health-still-operating-loss-despite-gains-q3-improving-margins

Despite a reasonably solid third quarter, Trinity Health is still operating at a loss in its 2023 fiscal year, according to a new filing.

The health system’s fiscal year began July 1, 2022, with the latest figures covering the first nine months. Its latest operating loss shrank to $263.1 million from the prior six months’ $298 million loss. Fiscal year 2023 operating revenue currently stands at $15.9 billion, up from the same period last year.

The nonprofit health system attributed its operating revenue growth to several acquisitions (MercyOne, North Ottawa Community Health System, Genesis Health System), which collectively added $1 billion of operating revenue. Net income for the last nine months was $856.3 million, compared to $43 million in the same period the prior year.

Though inpatient volumes are stabilizing to “a new normal,” management wrote in the latest filing, most of Trinity’s revenue comes from outpatient and other non-patient revenue. Operating expenses rose $1.1 billion compared to the same period in fiscal year 2022, mostly driven by the acquisitions. 

Nonoperating income was $1.2 billion during the first nine months of fiscal year 2023, up from $264.6 million in the first six months. This hike was driven partly by a $629.3 million increase in investment returns.

The health system’s operating margin was 1.6%, per the latest filing, compared to 0.1% during the same period a year ago. Margins were affected by expenses outpacing revenue, primarily driven by premium labor rates and inflation impacting supplies as well as a $137 million reduction in CARES Act grant funding. 

Trinity reports $10.2 billion in unrestricted cash and investments, including 180 days cash on hand compared to 211 days in fiscal year 2022, in its latest filing.

Trinity is focused on diversifying its business by shifting to ambulatory, home health, PACE, urgent care, specialty pharmacy and telehealth. The filing also noted the recent launch of a new care delivery model dubbed TogetherTeam, involving on-site and virtual nurses, that is expected to be implemented systemwide by the end of its 2024 fiscal year.

Salaries, wages and employee benefit costs rose 2.2%, offset by a reduction of $54.6 million in executive compensation and $39.7 million more pharmacy rebates than in the same period in fiscal year 2022. Same-facility contract labor costs decreased more than 40% to $193.9 million, reflecting “unprecedented” pandemic-related costs during the third quarter in 2022. 

Trinity “continues to use strong cost controls over contract labor and other operational spending as colleague investment and utilization of its FirstChoice internal staffing agency promotes labor stabilization,” management wrote.

Trinity Health spans 88 acute care hospitals and hundreds of other care locations in 26 states and purports to have the second-largest Medicare PACE (Program of All-inclusive Care for the Elderly) program in the country. It provided services to 1.3 million people and reported a community benefit and charity of $1.4 billion in fiscal year 2022. 

Ascension posts $1.4B Q1 operating loss

A decline in COVID-19 funding and sustained expenses issues helped lead St. Louis-based Ascension to a $1.8 billion operating loss in the nine months ending March 31.

The nine-month loss was on revenue of $21.3 billion. In the quarter ending March 31, the 140-hospital system reported an operating loss of $1.4 billion on $6.9 billion in revenue.

Such losses compared with $640 million and $671 million deficits in the nine-month and three-month periods, respectively, ending March 31, 2022.

Expenses for the nine-month period increased 3.7 percent on the previous year to total $22.3 billion.

“The reduction in COVID-19 funding negatively impacted revenue in the current year,” Ascension management said in the filing. “Additionally, challenges to expenses continue to persist resulting from the inflationary environment.”

The operating losses were offset by improved non-operating income in the first three months of 2023 but not over the nine-month period, which saw a net deficit of $1.9 billion.

Ascension, which operates 2,600 sites of care across 19 states and Washington, D.C., had 219 days of cash on hand as of March 31 compared with 259 at the same time last year.

UPMC operating profit doubles to $100M in Q1

Pittsburgh-based UPMC’s operating income hit $100.4 million in the first quarter — up from $50.4 million in the prior year period — due to increased patient volumes, the growth of its insurance division and equity earnings in its investment in CarepathRx.

UPMC said quarterly results were partially offset by reduced pandemic-related funding and increased labor costs. First-quarter revenue increased 12 percent year over year to $6.9 billion and expenses rose 11 percent to $6.8 billion.

Year over year, UPMC’s admissions and observations increased 6 percent, while its health plan grew by almost 500,000 members to 4.5 million. UPMC attributed the 12 percent jump to the expansion of its behavioral health and Medicaid programs in eastern Pennsylvania. 

“While meeting strong patient preference for care to be provided more conveniently in ambulatory settings closer to home, UPMC’s outpatient revenue increased 9 percent compared to a year ago,” CFO Edward Karlovich said in a May 25 news release. “Our patient volumes continue to shift from inpatient to outpatient settings.”

After including the performance of its investment portfolio and other nonoperating items, the 40-hospital system reported an overall gain of $187.3 million, compared with a loss of $226.2 million in the first quarter of 2022.

Health system finances looking up

Fitch Ratings Senior Director Kevin Holloran dubbed 2022 the worst operating year ever and most nonprofit health systems reported large losses. However, the losses are shrinking and some systems have even reported gains during 2023 so far.

Cleveland Clinic reported $335.5 million net income for the first quarter of the year, compared with a $282.5 million loss over the same period in 2022. The health system reported revenue of $3.5 billion for the quarter. Cleveland Clinic has 321 days cash on hand, which puts it in a strong position for the future.

Boston-based Mass General Brigham reported $361 million gain for the second quarter ending March 31, which is up from a $867 million loss in the same period last year. The health system reported quarterly revenue jumped 11 percent year over year to $4.5 billion. The system’s quarterly loss on operations was down significantly this year, hitting $8 million, compared to $183 million last year.

Renton, Wash.-based Providence reported first quarter revenues were up 5.1 percent in 2023 to $7.1 billion, and operating loss is also moving in the right direction. The system reported $345 million operating loss in the first quarter of 2023, down from $510 million last year.

All three systems cited ongoing labor shortages and labor costs as a challenge, but are working on initiatives to reduce expenses. Cleveland Clinic and Mass General Brigham reported operating margin improvement to nearly positive numbers.

Kaiser Permanente, based in Oakland, Calif., also reported operating income at $233 million for the first quarter of the year, an increase from $72 million operating loss over the same period last year. The system is focused on advancing value-based care for the remainder of the year and its health plan grew more than 120,000 members year over year.

Even more regional systems are stemming their losses. SSM Health, based in St. Louis, went from a $57.4 million loss for the first quarter of 2022 to $16.5 million quarterly loss this year. Revenue increased 13.3 percent to $2.5 billion for the quarter, with increased labor expenses and inflation on supply costs continuing to weigh on the system.

UCHealth in Aurora, Colo., also reported a first quarter income of $61.8 million and revenue of more than $5 billion.

Not every system is seeing losses decline. Chicago-based CommonSpirit Health, which reported larger operating losses in the first quarter year over year, hitting $658 million and $1.1 billion for the nine-month’s end March 31. The system was able to reduce contract labor costs, but still finds hiring a challenge and spent time last year recovering from a cybersecurity incident.

Hospitals face a long road to financial recovery from the pandemic as inflation persists and labor shortages become the norm, but movement in the right direction is welcome.

7 systems with recently affirmed credit ratings

Below is a summary of hospitals and health systems that have recently received affirmations of existing credit ratings. Some of these have not been reported on previously.

  1. New York City-based cancer specialist Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center was affirmed by Fitch Ratings May 22 at “AA” with a stable outlook both for its default rating and on a series of bonds totaling approximately $2.6 billion.
  2. Baltimore-based University of Maryland Medical System had an “A” rating affirmed on a series of bonds May 19 amid its robust operating profile and status as a premier healthcare provider in Maryland, S&P Global said. The 12-hospital system reported an operating loss of $8.9 million for the nine months ending March 31.
  3. Oakland, Calif.-based Kaiser Permanente had its “AA” default rating and that on a series of bonds affirmed May 15 by Fitch as the system was able to maintain a strong financial profile even in the face of a challenging operating environment.
  4. Providence, R.I.-based Care New England has had its default rating and that on $135.8 million of bonds affirmed at “BB-,” Fitch Ratings said May 12. The system’s outlook remains negative.The ratings reflect Care New England’s “ongoing operational challenges and thin liquidity,” Fitch said. While operating performance is expected to improve, there remains a low cash position of concern, the note said.
  5. New Hyde Park, N.Y.-based Northwell Health had an “A-” rating affirmed on a series of bonds amid strong market share and robust financial performance, Fitch said April 28. The 21-hospital system had $15.6 billion revenues in 2022.
  6. While its relatively weaker operating performance may continue in the shorter term, Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic has had its long-term ratings affirmed because of its excellent reputation in overall health services, both S&P Global and Moody’s said.Mayo Clinic’s revenue bonds remain at “AA” with a stable outlook, S&P said. Mayo Clinic’s “Aa2” stable credit profile is characterized by its excellent reputations for clinical services, research and education, Moody’s said.
  7. Moody’s affirmed New York City-based Montefiore Health System‘s “Baa3” rating because of the 10-hospital system’s leading market share in the Bronx, its clinical expertise, and its flagship status as the primary teaching hospital for Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

The End of the Pandemic Health Emergency is Ill-timed and Short-sighted: The Impact will further Destabilize the Health Industry

The national spotlight this week will be on the debt ceiling stand-off in Congress, the end of Title 42 that enables immigrants’ legal access to the U.S., the April CPI report from the Department of Labor and the aftermath of the nation’s 199th mass shooting this year in Allen TX.

The official end of the Pandemic Health Emergency (PHE) Thursday will also be noted but its impact on the health industry will be immediate and under-estimated.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) logged more than 104 million COVID-19 cases in the US as of late April and more than 11% of adults who had COVID-19 currently have symptoms of long COVID. It comes as the CDC say there’s a 20% chance of a Pandemic 2.0 in the next 2-5 years and the current death toll tops 1000/day in the U.S.

The Immediate impact:

The official end of the PHE means much of the cost for treating Covid will shift to private insurers; access to testing, vaccines and treatments with no out-of-pocket costs for the uninsured will continue through 2024. But enrollees in commercial plans, Medicare, Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program can expect more cost-sharing for tests and antivirals. 

That means higher revenues for insurers, increased out of pocket costs for consumers and more bad debt for hospitals and physicians.

At the state level, Medicaid disenrollment efforts will intensify to alleviate state financial obligations for Covid-related health costs. In tandem, state allocations for SNAP benefits used by 1 in 4 long-covid victims will shrink as budget-belts tighten lending to hunger cliff.  

That means less access to health programs in many states and more disruption in low-income households seeking care.

The Under-estimated Impact:

The end of the PHE enables politicians to shift “good will” toward direct care workers, home and Veteran’s health services and away from hospitals and specialty medicine who face reimbursement cuts and hostile negotiations with insurers. The April 18, 2023 White House Executive Order which enables increased funding for direct care workers called for prioritization across all federal agencies. Notably, in the PHE, hospitals received emergency funding to treat the Covid-19 patients while utilization and funding for non-urgent services was curtailed. Though the Covid-19 population is still significant, funding for hospitals is unlikely in lieu of in-home and social services programs for at risk populations.

A second unknown is this: As the ranks of the uninsured and under-insured swell, and as affordability looms as a primary concern among voters and employers, provider unpaid medical bills and “bad debt” increases are likely to follow.

Hostility over declining reimbursement between health insurers and local hospitals and medical groups will intensify while the biggest drug manufacturers, hospital systems and health insurers launch fresh social media campaigns and advocacy efforts to advance their interests and demonize their foes. 

Loss of confidence in the system and a desire for something better may be sparked by the official end of the PHE. And it’s certain to widen antipathy between insurers and hospitals.

My take:

In this month’s Health Affairs, DePaul University health researchers reported results of their analysis of the association between hospital reimbursement rates and insurer consolidation:

“Our results confirm this prior work and suggest that greater insurer market power is associated with lower prices paid for services nationally. A critical question for policy makers and consumers is whether savings obtained from lower prices are passed on in the form of lower premiums. The relationship to premiums is theoretically ambiguous. It is possible that insurers simply retain the savings in the form of higher profits.”

What’s clear is health insurers are winners and providers—especially hospitals and physicians—are likely losers as the PHE ends. What’s also clear is policymakers are in no mood to provide financial rescue to either.

In the weeks ahead as the debt ceiling is debated, the Federal FY 2024 budget finalized and campaign 2024 launches, the societal value of the entire health system and speculation about its preparedness for the next pandemic will be top of mind.

For some—especially not-for-profit hospitals and insurers who benefit from tax exemptions in favor of community health obligations– it requires rethinking of long-term strategies to serve the public good. And it necessitates their Boards to alter capital and operating priorities toward a more sustainnable future.

The pandemic exposed the disconnect between local health and human services programs and inadequacy of local, state and federal preparedness Given what’s ahead, the end of the Pandemic Health Emergency seems ill-timed and short-sighted: the impact will further destabilize the health industry.

Paul

PS: Saturday, the Allen Premium Outlets, (Allen, TX) was the site of America’s 199th mass shooting this year:

this time, 8 innocents died and 7 remain hospitalized, 4 in critical condition. Sadly, it’s becoming a new normal, marked by public officials who offer “thoughts and prayers” followed by calls for mental health and gun controls. Local law enforcement is deified if prompt or demonized if not. But because it’s a “new normal,” the heroics of EMS, ED and hospitals escapes mention. Medical City Healthcare is where 2 of the 8 drew their last breaths while staff labored to save the other 7. At a time when hospitals are battered by bad press, they deserve recognition for work done like this every day.

The extraordinary decline in not-for-profit healthcare debt issuance

https://mailchi.mp/55e7cecb9d73/the-weekly-gist-may-12-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

Last month, Eric Jordahl, Managing Director of Kaufman Hall’s Treasury and Capital Markets practice, blogged about the dangers of nonprofit healthcare providers’ extremely conservative risk management in today’s uncertain economy.

Healthcare public debt issuance in the first quarter of 2023 was down almost 70 percent compared to the first quarter of 2022. While not the only funding channel for not-for-profit healthcare organizations,

the level of public debt issuance is a bellwether for the ambition of the sector’s capital formation strategies.

While health systems have plenty of reasons to be cautious about credit management right now, it’s important not to underrate the dangers of being too risk averse. As Jordahl puts it: “Retrenchment might be the right risk management choice in times of crisis, but once that crisis moderates that same strategy can quickly become a risk driver.” 

The Gist: Given current market conditions, there are a host of good reasons why caution reigns among nonprofit health systems, but this current holding pattern for capital spending endangers their future competitiveness and potentially even their survival. 

Nonprofit systems aren’t just at risk of losing a competitive edge to vertically integrated payers, whom the pandemic market treated far more kindly in financial terms, but also to for-profit national systems, like HCA and Tenet, who have been flywheeling strong quarterly results into revamped growth and expansion plans. 

Health systems should be wary of becoming stuck on defense while the competition is running up the score.