What’s at stake from GOP megabill’s coverage losses

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/01/real-cost-health-coverage-losses

Nearly 12 million people would lose their health insurance under President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” an erosion of the social safety net that would lead to more unmanaged chronic illnesses, higher medical debt and overcrowding of hospital emergency departments.

Why it matters: 

The changes in the Senate version of the bill could wipe out most of the health coverage gains made under the Affordable Care Act and slash state support for Medicaid and SNAP.

  • “We are going back to a place of a lot of uncompensated care and a lot of patchwork systems for people to get care,” said Ellen Montz, a managing director at Manatt Health who oversaw the ACA federal marketplace during the Biden administration.

The big picture: 

The stakes are huge for low-income and working-class Americans who depend on Medicaid and subsidized ACA coverage.

  • Without health coverage, more people with diabetes, heart disease, asthma and other chronic conditions will likely go without checkups and medication to keep their ailments in check.
  • Those who try to keep up with care after losing insurance will pay more out of pocket, driving up medical debt and increasing the risk of eviction, food insecurity and depleted savings.
  • Uninsured patients have worse cancer survival outcomes and are less likely to get prenatal care. Medicaid also is a major payer of behavioral health counseling and crisis intervention.

Much of the coverage losses from the bill will come from new Medicaid work reporting requirements, congressional scorekeepers predict. Work rules generally will have to be implemented for coverage starting in 2027, but could be earlier or later depending on the state.

  • Past experiments with Medicaid work rules show that many eligible people fall through the cracks verifying they’ve met the requirements or navigating new state bureaucracies.
  • Often, people don’t find out they’ve lost coverage until they try to fill a prescription or see their doctor. States typically provide written notices, but contacts can be out of date.
  • Nearly 1 in 3 adults who were disenrolled from Medicaid after the COVID pandemic found out they no longer had health insurance only when they tried to access care, per a KFF survey.

Zoom out: 

The Medicaid and ACA changes will also affect people who keep their coverage.

  • The anticipated drop-off in preventive care means the uninsured will be more likely to go to the emergency room when they get sick. That could further crowd already bursting ERs, resulting in even longer wait times.
  • Changes to ACA markets in the bill, along with the impending expiration of enhanced premium subsidies, may drive healthier people to drop out, Montz said, skewing the risk pool and driving up premiums for remaining enrollees.
  • States will likely have to make further cuts to their safety-net programs if the bill passes in order to keep state budgets functioning with less federal Medicaid funding.

The other side: 

The White House and GOP proponents of the bill say the health care changes will fight fraud, waste and abuse, and argue that coverage loss projections are overblown.

Reality check: 

Not all insurance is created equally, and many people with health coverage still struggle to access care. But the bill’s impact would take the focus off ways to improve the health system, Montz said.

  • “This is taking us catastrophically backward, where we don’t get to think about the things that we should be thinking about how to best keep people healthy,” she said.

The bottom line: 

The changes will unfold against a backdrop of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s purported focus on preventive care and ending chronic illness in the U.S.

  • But American health care is an insurance-based system, said Manatt Health’s Patricia Boozang. Coverage is what unlocks access.
  • Scrapping millions of people’s health coverage “seems inconsistent with the goal of making America healthier,” she said.

Protect Medicaid For American Families

Medicaid is critical to our nation’s healthcare system, providing necessary care for more than 72 million Americans – including our neighbors and friends.

Who it Affects

Medicaid covers children, seniors in nursing homes, veterans, people with long-term chronic illnesses, those with mental health issues and working families.

The program helps keep Americans healthy at all stages of life, providing healthcare to families in need — especially as the country continues to recover from record-high inflation.

The Problem

Some policymakers are considering Medicaid cuts that would undermine coverage for countless patients and threaten Americans’ access to comprehensive, 24/7 hospital care.

Medicaid covers health services for patients who otherwise wouldn’t be able to pay for care. Coverage of services is essential for hospitals, and helps ensure all Americans have access to high-quality, 24/7 care, no matter where they live. 

Who Medicaid covers

Providing Lifesaving Healthcare Services

Medicaid covers patients with complex and chronic illnesses in need of long-term care, as well as emergency services and prescription coverage.

As the nation faces a growing mental health crisis, Medicaid also ensures millions of Americans — including veterans — have access to mental healthcare and substance abuse services.

Without access to affordable mental healthcare through Medicaid, veterans often lack the long-term support they deserve, and are left to deal with complex health issues years after their service.

The Threat To Rural America

Medicaid funding cuts pose a significant threat to patients in rural areas, who are more likely to suffer from chronic illness compared to their urban counterparts and are more reliant on Medicaid services in turn.

In these areas, where primary care providers are few and far between, hospitals become even more vital sites of care — and in some cases, the only sites of care available.

Rural hospitals, already more likely to be at risk of closure, rely on Medicaid funding to stay open and to continue providing lifesaving care to their patients. Nearly 150 rural hospitals have closed or converted since 2010 alone. Further cuts to care would eliminate a lifeline for Americans across the country — with devastating consequences for rural communities.

The Solution

Cuts to Medicaid funding will create irreparable harm for our nation’s most vulnerable communities, including millions of children, veterans, those with chronic illnesses, seniors in nursing homes, and working families. Medicaid helps provide security to these Americans, keeping them healthy at every stage of life.

Congress should vote against efforts to reduce Medicaid funding and instead focus on policies that strengthen access to 24/7 care, rather than take it away.

Are we on the cusp of a new disruptive era of clinical innovation? 

https://mailchi.mp/5e9ec8ef967c/the-weekly-gist-april-14-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

At a recent meeting of physician leaders, we sat next to the head of the health system’s bariatric surgery program. Given the recent and rapid uptake of GLP-1 inhibitors like Ozempic and Wegovy, we asked how he thought these drugs, which can generate dramatic weight loss, would affect his practice.

He chuckled, “they’re really good drugs…they could put me out of business! 

It’s too early to say if they’ll be effective over a lifetime, but there’s no doubt they’re going to have a huge impact on our work.” It got us thinking about the other reverberations this class of drugs could have on care needs, if a majority of obese Americans had access to them.


Some effects are obvious.

We could see significant declines in treatment needs for chronic diseases like obesity and heart failure, for which obesity is a strong risk factor. Given that obese patients are much more likely to need joint replacement surgery, we could see a big hit to that demand—although some patients who are poor candidates for surgery because of weight-related complications could become eligible.

Even longer-term, if American’s aren’t dying of chronic disease, we’ll still die of something, so expect diseases of advanced age, like Alzheimer’s and many cancers, to increase. Other pharmaceutical innovations, like the growth of immunotherapy and more targeted cancer treatments, also have the potential to radically alter how disease is managed.

We may be at the beginning of another wave of disruptive medical innovation on the order of the introduction of statins in the 1990s, which combined with minimally invasive catheterization, slashed the need for bypass surgery.

Given their sky-high prices, it’s too soon to tell how quickly the use of these new obesity drugs will grow, but innovations like these will serve to pull more care out of hospitals and into less invasive outpatient medical management.  

CVS Health to launch a virtual-first primary care platform

https://mailchi.mp/31b9e4f5100d/the-weekly-gist-june-03-2022?e=d1e747d2d8

The digital platform is designed to provide consumers with a coordinated healthcare experience across care settings. It’s being sold to Aetna’s fully insured and self-insured plan sponsors, as well as CVS Caremark clients, and is due to go live next year. According to CVS Health, the new offering “enables consumers to choose care when and where they want,” whether that’s virtually, in a retail setting (including at a MinuteClinic or HealthHUB), or through at-home services.

Patients will have access to primary care, on-demand care, medication management, chronic condition management, and mental health services, as well as help in identifying other in-network care providers. 

The Gist: CVS Health has been working to integrate its retail clinics, care delivery assets, and health insurance business. This new virtual-first care platform is aimed at coordinating care and experience across the portfolio, and streamlining how individuals access the range of services available to them.

CVS is not alone in focusing here: UnitedHealth Group, Cigna, and others have announced virtual-first health plans with a similar value proposition. Any payer or provider who aims to own the consumer relationship must field a similar digital care platform that streamlines and coordinates service offerings, lest they find themselves in a market where many patients turn first to CVS and other disruptors for their care needs.