Tentative steps toward recovering from a deadly pandemic

https://mailchi.mp/0d4b1a52108c/the-weekly-gist-april-24-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

Baby Steps – Selah Someonetotalkto's Blog

The death toll from the novel coronavirus continued to mount this week, with more than 50,000 deaths reported in the US, and over 900,000 confirmed cases nationwide. Globally, the disease has infected more than 2.7M people and killed nearly 200,000. On Tuesday, public health officials in California announced that two people who died in Santa Clara County in early February were victims of COVID-19, making them the earliest known fatalities in the US, and altering experts’ understanding of how long the disease has been spreading in the country. New modeling from researchers at Northeastern University this week suggested that the virus may have been spreading widely in several cities by early February, but went undetected because of restrictions on testing.

National attention has remained focused on the subject of testing, as states and localities scramble to secure enough testing supplies and equipment to allow them to understand community spread and identify new cases. President Trump signed an emergency $484B relief bill on Friday that will provide $25B to ramp up testing, give additional aid to businesses forced to shutter, and send hospitals $75B in additional emergency funding.

The new money for hospitals is in addition to $100B already approved by Congress for a “provider relief fund” as part of the CARES Act. Having already distributed $30B of the initial grant money to hospitals, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) was expected to pay out an additional $20B today, this time according to a formula based on the net patient revenue of each hospital, rather than the earlier approach based on Medicare billings. The shift is expected to address concerns among children’s hospitals, safety-net providers, and others who were disadvantaged by the Medicare-based approach. It is unclear how the newly approved $75B of additional funding will be allocated.

Meanwhile, states began to plan for the reopening of their economies, with most governors taking a measured approach in coordination with neighboring states. A handful of states moved to loosen stay-at-home restrictions in advance of meeting the Trump administration’s “gating” criteria, including Florida, which reopened some beaches for recreational use, Oklahoma, and Georgia, which controversially allowed gyms, bowling alleys, hair and nail salons, and tattoo parlors to reopen on Friday.

Many states began to put in place plans to restart elective surgeries, which had been curtailed by a patchwork of differing state and local directives. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released guidelines this week to help local officials decide when and how to restart surgeries. Whether for healthcare services or other types of economic activity, states will (and should) be guided by the ability to conduct widespread testing, robust contact tracing, and isolation of those infected with the virus. Ensuring that ability will likely make the next phase of the pandemic a protracted and frustrating “dance” of fits and starts, likely to last into the summer months and beyond.

 

 

 

Cartoon – At last a Sport We can Watch

KAL's cartoon | The world this week | The Economist

Cartoon – State of the Union

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Cartoon – Coronavirus Prevention Today

College Signals Concern over Coronavirus Outbreak Cooks Adresses ...

70% Of Americans Want Officials To Prioritize Public Health Over Restarting Economy

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/04/23/70-of-americans-want-officials-to-prioritize-public-health-over-restarting-economy-trump-kemp/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news&utm_campaign=news&cdlcid=#74a9d5ce68d3

The ICU nurse who stood masked and silent at the rally to open Arizona

A wide majority of Americans are not ready to resume public life, according to a poll released Thursday by CBS News and YouGov, as governors in Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina plan to allow stay-at-home orders to expire next week.

KEY FACTS

Only 30% of people surveyed said the government’s priority should be restarting the economy; 70% said the focus should be on slowing the virus through social distancing measures.

The polling shows a partisan divide—while 91% of Democrats and 69% of Independents favor focusing on public health, 52% of Republicans say the economy should take precedence.

29% of those polled said they would feel comfortable eating at a restaurant; Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will allow certain businesses, including restaurants, to open on April 27, 2020.

A minority of respondents said they would be comfortable going to work right now (44%) and even fewer said they would attend a large entertainment or sports event (13%), but the social isolation is taking its toll—54% said they would be willing to visit their friends.

KEY BACKGROUND

Protests against stay-at-home orders have cropped up around the country in states like California and Michigan, initially with President Donald Trump’s support. Although the movement is vocal, its support is limited. Less than a quarter of the poll’s respondents said they support the protests, and only 7% think that Trump should encourage them. The president is starting to change his tune, criticizing Georgia Governor Kemp’s plan to reopen businesses at the White House briefing on Wednesday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he is coordinating with neighboring governors on how to proceed, but has not yet announced whether he will extend the state’s stay-at-home order or let it expire. Florida has had more than 28,000 cases of COVID-19, more than any other southern state. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows that Florida residents’ opinions on reopening the economy reflect those of the country: Only 22% said that the state should loosen social distancing rules at the end of the month. As a first step, DeSantis allowed localities to reopen their beaches last week, and some, notably those in Jacksonville, were crowded.

 

 

Governor Cuomo, Bloomberg Announce Unprecedented New York COVID-19 Coronavirus Contact Tracing Program

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-bloomberg-announce-unprecedented-new-york-covid-19-coronavirus-contact-tracing-program/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=career&cid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#129e09243cd1

Coronavirus: Why are there doubts over contact-tracing apps? - BBC ...

New York is not going to let the COVID-19 coronavirus spread without a trace. Make that multiple traces. In fact, make that many, many, many traces.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg announced the launch of a massive contact tracing program in an effort to better contain the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). How massive? How about larger-than-any-contact-tracing-effort-that’s-been-attempted-before-in-the-U.S. massive?

It is a sign of the times that Cuomo had to include a slide that said: “But we can’t be stupid.” After all, there are other people out there pushing to re-open businesses without at the same time providing a specific plan on how exactly to stop the virus when social distancing measures are relaxed.

Bloomberg Philanthropies, which was founded by Bloomberg, will contribute $10.5 million as well as technical support and assistance to the program. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health will develop an online training program and certification process for those doing the contact tracing. Vital Strategies, via its Resolve to Save Lives initiative, will advise and assist the New York State Health Department staff in developing protocols and processes to help the whole contact tracing process.

Speaking of vital strategies, “test-trace-isolate” is quite a vital strategy to try to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus so that social distancing measures can be relaxed and things can re-open, at least to some degree. Contact tracing is the “trace” part of that strategy. I’ve described previously for Forbes how to do contact tracing. When you’ve identified a person (an index case) infected with the SARS-Cov2 via testing, contact tracing is determining and locating every person that index case may have had contact with that was close enough to transmit the virus. This way you can isolate or quarantine all of those contacts as quickly as possible so that they can’t spread the virus any further. Essentially testing, tracing, and isolating or quarantining aims to contain the virus, to box it in, to give it no people to spread to, to surround it by nothing but toilet paper, fluffy pillows, Netflix videos, and whatever else people have in their houses and apartments.

Without a vaccine or specific treatment versus the SARS-Cov2, the virus could have spread much more widely without social distancing measures in place, because supplements, gargling salt water, Medieval chants or whatever bogus prevention measures have been offered weren’t going to stop the virus. Premature re-opening could send all of those efforts down the metaphorical toilet bowl. “While we start our work to re-open our economy we must ensure we are doing it in a way that does no harm and does not undo all of the work and sacrifice it has taken to get here,” said Cuomo in statement. “One of the most critical pieces of getting to a new normal is to ramp up testing, but states have a second big task – to put together an army of people to trace each person who tested positive, find out who they contacted and then isolate those people.”

Think about it. If you re-open places and relax social distancing measures, it could take only a small number of people spreading the virus to then cause another surge in COVID-19 cases. Therefore, a good contact tracing program needs to be in place to catch potentially infectious people quickly. Implementing large scale and coordinated contact tracing programs has been one way that Germany, Singapore and South Korea have been able to better control the COVID-19 coronavirus and its impact than the U.S. and U.K. have.

“We’re all eager to begin loosening restrictions on our daily lives and our economy,” said Bloomberg in a statement. “But in order to do that as safely as possible, we first have to put in place systems to identify people who may have been exposed to the virus and support them as they isolate.”

Putting appropriate systems in place before making a decision? Hear that sound? It’s the sound of science walking back into the ongoing “re-open America” conversation and saying, “what the heck have you been doing to the house while I’ve been away.” Deciding to re-open anything without first putting proper systems in place to monitor and contain the virus would be like going to a dinner party when you aren’t wearing any clothes. It would leave you quite exposed and basically put your butt on the line.

Although the program is launching immediately, it will take some time to recruit and train hundreds or perhaps thousands of tracers. Potential recruits will come from a variety of places such as the State Department of Health, various state agencies, the State University of New York (SUNY), and the City University of New York (CUNY). Henning indicated that the timeline for getting things in place will be in the order of “a number of weeks.”

This program will coordinate with contact tracing efforts in New Jersey and Connecticut. After all, this virus doesn’t respect borders or need an E-ZPass to spread to neighboring states. As Henning noted, “New York state has already been talking extensively with New Jersey and other states.”

If you live outside this tri-state area, try to pay attention to what’s going on here. After all, contact tracing will have to occur in other parts of the country as well. Otherwise, the virus can keep circulating in different parts of the country, which means that it could at any time readily spread to the rest of the U.S. After all, the virus is like a very bad house guest. It doesn’t respect boundaries. And it is unlikely to just disappear without a trace.

 

 

The High Stakes of Low Scientific Standards

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-pandemic-science-problems-e6e619b8-c1a8-4e06-97d9-c328d4d0400e.html

The Lucky Seven States Already Pursuing Gambling Legislation In 2018

In the midst of this pandemic, science is suffering from low standards for some research, a new study argues.

The big picture: Science — which is slow, methodical and redundant — isn’t necessarily made for the immediacy and acute public interest brought on by a health crisis.

  • Scientists rely on peer review and back and forth exchange that leads to a more polished final study. But a health crisis like the current pandemic, or the Ebola outbreak, creates a sense of urgency that can be antithetical to the scientific process.

What’s happening: A new study out today in the journal Science warns many of the clinical trials and studies first published about treatments and other issues involving the current pandemic were designed poorly or had other issues that affected their outcomes.

  • Studies that have yet to go through peer-review — like a recent, flawed study of the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat coronavirus — have found their way into news stories thanks to pre-print services, leading to problematic reporting and real-time peer review through Twitter.
  • More than 18 clinical trials testing hydroxychloroquine to treat the novel coronavirus have enrolled more than 75,000 patients in North America.
  • “This massive commitment concentrates resources on nearly identical clinical hypotheses, creates competition for recruitment, and neglects opportunities to test other clinical hypotheses,” the study says.
  • Early, flawed work has potentially increased the risk that later results may have gotten false positives and more media attention than they deserved, the new study says.

Yes, but: While the pandemic is exacerbating these problems with misinformation and lax research standards, it isn’t the cause of them.

  • “Some of the problems that we’re seeing right now are actually not that exceptional compared to the problems that we have under normal conditions as well, just that maybe they’re a little bit more amplified and have a little more visibility,” Jonathan Kimmelman, director of the Biomedical Ethics Unit at McGill University and one of the authors of the new paper, told Axios.
  • These kinds of issues cropped up during previous health crises, and while the authors of the new study argue that some of those problems around information sharing and standards of research have improved, there’s still a long way to go.

What’s next: Many of these issues around varying standards of research and communication could be remedied through better communication among researchers and the agencies funding their work.

  • Instead of having a number of fragmented studies competing for resources and looking for effective treatments, the researchers say it would make more sense to bring them under one umbrella, allowing them to coordinate.
  • “You could reduce variation, and you might get answers more quickly,” Alex John London, the director of the Center for Ethics and Policy at Carnegie Mellon and one of the authors of the new study, told Axios.
  • The authors are also calling on clinicians to resist performing their own small studies, instead opting to join up with larger trials.
  • They also say agencies need to help build those larger studies and avoid making statements to the public about unvalidated treatments that may or may not work, instead opting to elevate larger studies in their various stages to the public.

 

 

 

 

 

The South is vulnerable to a coronavirus nightmare

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-vitals-d53939d5-90fb-4aef-a87d-30cf2b0ceebf.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&stream=top

COVID-19 vulnerability index, by county

Arrow

 

The South is at risk of being devastated by the coronavirus.

Why it matters: Southern states tend to have at-risk populations and weak health care systems — and they’re the ones moving fastest to loosen social distancing rules. That puts them at risk for the worst-case coronavirus scenarios.

The big picture: To stop the spread of the coronavirus, there are really only two options: stringent social distancing, or stringent public health measures.

Driving the news: Several southern states including Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina have recently announced that they’re starting to back off of social distancing.

  • Our national testing capacity is still nowhere near where experts say it needs to be, and only some communities have announced efforts to build up contact tracing.

Between the lines: The Surgo Foundation created a coronavirus community vulnerability index that takes into account factors like socioeconomic status, minority status, housing type, epidemiologic factors and health care system factors.

The bottom line: The South is already worse off in almost every way, partially due to policy choices made in these states. Its comparatively unhealthy population is vulnerable to more serious illness, and looser social distancing will enable the virus’ spread.

 

 

US hits grim milestone: 50,000 coronavirus deaths

US hits grim milestone: 50,000 coronavirus deaths

US hits grim milestone: 50,000 coronavirus deaths | TheHill

More than 50,000 people in the United States have died of the COVID-19 disease, a grim milestone in a global pandemic that shows few signs of slowing even as pressure mounts to reopen parts of the U.S. economy.

The death toll is 16 times greater than the number of Americans who died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks and about one-and-a-half times larger than the number of U.S. soldiers who died in the Korean War. At the current pace, the number of coronavirus deaths is likely to surpass the number of Americans who died in the Vietnam War by the middle of next week.

The true number of deaths is likely higher than official figures. Coroners in California this week reclassified the death of a woman in Santa Clara on Feb. 6 as a coronavirus victim, the first known death from the disease in the United States and one that occurred three weeks before what had previously been thought to be the first known death.

About 900,000 people in the United States have tested positive for the virus that causes the disease, according to the most recent figures. That number has doubled in the past two weeks, climbing by 25,000 or more cases per day.

The richest nation in the world now accounts for about one-third of the planet’s 2.7 million cases.

The number of U.S. deaths has increased at a rate of about 2,000 per day in recent weeks as scientists race to understand the new pathogen and health systems in hard-hit areas like New York, Boston, New Orleans and Detroit struggle under the strain placed on hospitals and frontline health care workers.

More than a quarter of a million New Yorkers have tested positive for the virus, as have more than 100,000 residents of New Jersey. There are at least 35,000 cases in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and at least 20,000 cases in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas.

Though the virus was first detected in China, where the authoritarian government locked down entire cities in January, the United States is now home to the largest number of known cases in the world. The number of cases on American soil is nearly four times as high as the second-worst hit country, Spain, and higher than the total case counts in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom combined, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

America’s disastrously slow response has stumbled over a number of hurdles other countries cleared easily. President Trump and his administration routinely claimed the virus was under control — he claimed the coronavirus would have “a very good ending for us” on Jan. 30, the same day the World Health Organization declared the virus a public health emergency of international concern.

Scientists now believe the virus began circulating in the United States in early to mid-January, a period when the country had little capacity to test its residents. An early test created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and sent to public health laboratories across the country turned out to have a fatal flaw, setting back crucial testing capacity that could have uncovered the extent of the virus’s spread even as other countries deployed their own tests.

Companies that could have filled that backlog were also slow to develop their own diagnostic tests, and several ran into roadblocks at the Food and Drug Administration, which did not move to approve tests on an emergency basis until late February.

The United States only seemed to begin to take the threat of the outbreak seriously in early March. Almost two weeks later, the first state — California — announced stay-at-home orders.

As a consequence, the slow response has meant the United States has not bent its case curve downward as fast as other nations. The hardest-hit European nations have all seen daily case and death counts bending downward; the United States has, at best, reached a daunting plateau. And though countries like Italy, Spain and France have suffered more deaths per capita, their trajectories are down, while figures in the United States trend up.

There is still no known medicinal treatment for those suffering from COVID-19. And while dozens of laboratories across the globe race to develop a vaccine, experts warn that a finished product will not be available on a mass scale for more than a year — a schedule that would mark the fastest such development in human history. Until those vaccines are ready and widely available, the virus will remain in control.

Left leaderless at the federal level, state governments responded to the mounting crisis in their own ways. A bipartisan roster of governors in New York, California, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio and elsewhere have won praise for quick, decisive action and informative briefings that stand in stark contrast to Trump’s daily appearances at White House press conferences.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s (D) order was followed by most other states, though eight states have yet to require residents to avoid nonessential activities. Even as some states took unprecedented steps to lock down their economies, banning residents from beaches and public parks and shuttering non-essential businesses, others were slow to act.

There is now mounting evidence that dozens of coronavirus cases are tied to an April election in Wisconsin, and to packed beaches during Spring Break in Florida the previous month. At least one man who attended what was dubbed a coronavirus party in Kentucky came down with the disease. Several pastors who defied recommendations against holding church services have died.

Now, as a few hundred protesters in several states demand a reopened economy, some governors are beginning to loosen restrictions. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will allow some businesses to begin opening on Friday, even as the number of COVID-19 cases jumped to 21,883 on Thursday. Nearly 900 Georgians, about 4 percent of confirmed cases, have died.

Some nonessential businesses will begin opening in the coming days in Alaska, Indiana, Tennessee and Texas. Beaches have reopened in parts of Florida and South Carolina, even as public health officials have warned of the consequences of reopening too quickly.

“We have to proceed in a very careful, measured way,” Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a White House press briefing Wednesday. “The one way not to reopen the economy is to have a rebound that we can’t take care of.”

But there remain signs of strain even within the highest ranks of government. Fauci contradicted Trump’s claim Wednesday that the virus would not return in the fall.

“We will have coronavirus in the fall. I am convinced of that because of the degree of transmissibility that it has, the global nature,” Fauci said.

Fauci did not appear at the White House briefing Thursday, when Trump said he did not agree with the nation’s leading infectious disease expert that the country’s testing capacity had risen to the level required to stamp out the virus.

“No, I don’t agree with him on that. No, I think we’re doing a great job in testing. I don’t agree. If he said that, I don’t agree with him,” Trump said.

 

 

 

 

 

4.4 million Americans sought jobless benefits last week, as economic pain continued across the United States

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/23/economy-coronavirus-unemployment/?fbclid=IwAR3EbJpE7nmIUWOM4HUrZVOKaBmls7Uh3gL5ewCP98q7So0s38JlPdTT-SI&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

4.4 million Americans sought jobless benefits last week, as ...

The White House and Congress have tried to arrest the downturn, but the coronavirus pandemic keeps pushing Americans out of the labor force.

More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the Labor Department, a signal the tidal wave of job losses continues to grow during the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s the fifth straight week that job losses were measured in the millions. From March 15 to April 18, 26.5 million people have probably been laid off or furloughed. The number of jobs lost in that brief span effectively erased all jobs created after the 2008 financial crisis. Jobless figures on this scale haven’t been seen since the Great Depression.

The new weekly total comes on top of 22 million Americans who had sought benefits in previous weeks, a volume that has overwhelmed state systems for processing unemployment claims. Economists estimate the national unemployment rate sits between 15 and 20 percent, much higher than it was during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Depression was about 25 percent.

The new weekly jobless claims figure came in around economists’ predictions, which were expected “to be staggering, but not growing, which is a small mercy,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. For comparison, 5.2 million people filed unemployment claims for the week ending April 11.

As the coronavirus began spreading in the United States earlier this year, many businesses rapidly began to close. Hotels, restaurants, and airlines were hit particularly hard, but few businesses were immune from the economic toll. The problems have only worsened each week, as more Americans reduced their spending and more businesses cut workers because income has fallen so sharply.

Pollack said many businesses quickly “cut to the bone” when they realized how the pandemic would gut sales. Now, many of the new layoffs stem from businesses like news organizations and tech companies that weren’t directly affected by people staying home but are suffering the consequences of vanishing ad revenue and paid subscriptions.

“We see declines across every major industry and state, although the declines hit industries at different times,” Pollak said.

Meanwhile, consumer spending, the engine behind the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, has evaporated. If they’re still operating, many offices are working with skeleton staffs and staring down months of dismal revenue.

The White House and Congress have tried to intervene, but with limited impact so far.

New funding for small businesses in a $2 trillion March emergency spending package quickly dried up in the face of overwhelming demand, prompting the Senate to expand funding by $310 billion on Tuesday. The bill would direct an additional $60 billion to a separate small-business emergency grant and loan program. The House is slated to vote on the measure Thursday afternoon.

Even with all the new government spending, hopes for a sharp economic rebound are fading, overtaken by the public fear of going back to restaurants, movie theaters, schools and gyms. The growing possibility of a “W”-shaped recovery — in which a resurgence of the virus, or a spike in defaults and bankruptcies, triggers another downturn — has analysts reframing what a reopened or rehabilitated economy might look like.

This year defies historical comparison. In 2020, 28.9 million people have filed for unemployment benefits. Halfway through the fourth month of the year, the figure has already eclipsed the full-year totals of every year but 1982 (30.4 million) and 2009 (29.8 million). At this rate, it will overtake both within a week or so.

Less than half of working-age Americans will be earning a wage next month, said James Knightley, ING Chief International Economist.

“In an election year, this means that the call for politicians to reopen the economy is only going to get louder, irrespective of the health advice,” Knightley said.

In five weeks, 9.4 percent of the working-age population has filed for unemployment insurance, said Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s director of economic research. That’s about twice the share of the population that lost a job during the Great Recession. In some states, such as Michigan, about one in four workers has filed an unemployment claim in the past few weeks.

“The numbers detailing the shock to the U.S. labor market are so large, and cover such a short time, that your first reaction is that they’re a typo,” Bunker said.

Employers are also unlikely to be hiring at the same levels they were before the pandemic. As of April 16, job postings on Indeed were down 34 percent compared with last year, Bunker said.

The job losses, like the epidemic itself, haven’t fallen evenly across the country. In three states — Hawaii, Kentucky and Michigan — about 1 in 4 workers have filed for unemployment benefits in the past 5 weeks. In Michigan, plant shutdowns and furloughs have ravaged the manufacturing economy, which had only recently recovered all the jobs it lost in the Great Recession.

On the opposite of the ledger sits South Dakota, where Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R) has resisted calls to lock down the state’s businesses to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Only 6 percent of the state’s labor force has applied for unemployment benefits. It may be a regional trend: Neighboring Wyoming and Nebraska, and nearby Utah, also have unusually low claims numbers.

As part of its sprawling stimulus package, Washington has rolled out relief for millions of households and small businesses struggling to make ends meet. But money for struggling businesses quickly ran dry, and system glitches have prevented $1,200 stimulus checks from reaching some of the neediest.

On Tuesday, the Senate passed a bill to expand the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses by $310 billion, and flood a separate small-business emergency grant and loan initiative by an additional $60 billion.

Meanwhile, many low-income veterans and Social Security recipients still haven’t received the stimulus money in their bank accounts, while other IRS checks are going to dead people. People who didn’t file tax returns last year or don’t have direct-deposit information may have weeks more to wait.

In the wake of the Great Recession, the number of unemployed — about 15 million — was significantly higher than the number who claimed benefits, and the unemployment rate still peaked at just 10 percent. Economists expect the United States to blow by that figure when April’s jobs data are released on May 8.

Granted, this comes as unemployment eligibility and benefits have been greatly expanded. The government has relied on the unemployment insurance system to deliver relief to out-of-work Americans as it forces millions of businesses to close during temporary stay-at-home orders. The soaring numbers are, for once, a sign of the system working as intended.