Rational Exuberance for Medicare Advantage Market Disrupters

Insurers Running Medicare Advantage Plans Overbill Taxpayers By Billions As  Feds Struggle To Stop It | Kaiser Health News

Medicare Advantage (MA) focused companies, like Oak Street
Health (14x revenues), Cano Health (11x revenues), and Iora
Health (announced sale to One Medical at 7x revenues), reflect
valuation multiples that appear irrational to many market observers. Multiples may be
exuberant, but they are not necessarily irrational.


One reason for high valuations across the healthcare sector is the large pools of capital
from institutional public investors, retail investors and private equity that are seeking
returns higher than the low single digit bond yields currently available. Private equity
alone has hundreds of billions in investable funds seeking opportunities in healthcare.
As a result of this abundance of capital chasing deals, there is a premium attached to the
scarcity of available companies with proven business models and strong growth
prospects.


Valuations of companies that rely on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement have
traditionally been discounted for the risk associated with a change in government
reimbursement policy
. This “bop the mole” risk reflects the market’s assessment that
when a particular healthcare sector becomes “too profitable,” the risk increases that CMS
will adjust policy and reimbursement rates in that sector to drive down profitability.


However, there appears to be consensus among both political parties that MA is the right
policy to help manage the rise in overall Medicare costs and, thus, incentives for MA
growth can be expected to continue.
This factor combined with strong demographic
growth in the overall senior population means investors apply premiums to companies in
the MA space compared to traditional providers.


Large pools of available capital, scarcity value, lower perceived sector risk and overall
growth in the senior population are all factors that drive higher valuations for the MA
disrupters.
However, these factors pale in comparison the underlying economic driver
for these companies. Taking full risk for MA enrollees and dramatically reducing hospital
utilization, while improving health status, is core to their business model.
These
companies target and often achieve reduced hospital utilization by 30% or more for their
assigned MA enrollees.

In 2019, the average Medicare days per 1,000 in the U.S. was 1,190. With about
$14,700 per Medicare discharge and a 4.5 ALOS, the average cost per Medicare day is
approximately $3,200. At the U.S. average 1,190 Medicare hospital days per thousand,
if MA hospital utilization is decreased by 25%, the net hospital revenue per 1,000 MA

enrollees is reduced by about $960,000. If one of the MA disrupters has, for example, 50,000 MA lives in a market, the
decrease in hospital revenues for that MA population would be about $48 million. This does not include the associated
physician fees and other costs in the care continuum. That same $48 million + in the coffers of the risk-taking MA
disrupters allows them deliver comprehensive array of supportive services including addressing social determinants of health. These services then further reduce utilization and improves overall health status, creating a virtuous circle. This is very profitable.


MA is only the beginning. When successful MA businesses expand beyond MA, and they will, disruption across the
healthcare economy will be profound and painful for the incumbents. The market is rationally exuberant about that
prospect.

10 health systems with strong finances

How to assess the financial strength of an insurance company | III

Here are 10 health systems with strong operational metrics and solid financial positions, according to reports from Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings.

1. St. Louis-based BJC HealthCare has an “AA” rating and stable outlook with S&P. The health system has a leading market share and highly regarded reputation, particularly for its flagship hospitals that are affiliated with Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, S&P said. The health system consistently has produced stable earnings and cash flow, even during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the credit rating agency. 

2. Cleveland Clinic has an “Aa2” rating and stable outlook from Moody’s. The credit rating agency said the health system benefits from its reputation as an international brand, which will allow it to grow revenue outside of the Ohio market. Moody’s said it maintains good cash flow margins and therefore very strong liquidity.

3. Fountain Valley, Calif.-based MemorialCare has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The health system has a strong financial profile and maintains high liquidity, Fitch said. The credit rating agency expects the system to generate cash flows of approximately 7 percent in the years after fiscal 2021. 

4. Winston-Salem, N.C.-based Novant Health has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The health system has a solid market position in four regions and strong financial metrics that support the rating. The credit rating agency said Novant Health’s acquisition of New Hanover Regional Medical Center in Wilmington, N.C., will benefit the system financially and strategically in the long term.

5. OhioHealth has an “Aa2” rating and stable outlook from Moody’s. The credit rating agency said the health system has a leading market position with several growth opportunities in an attractive market and a favorable payer market that contributes to stability. Moody’s also said OhioHealth’s ongoing cost reductions and management discipline will continue to support strong margins and liquidity levels. 

6. Rady Children’s Hospital and Health Center in San Diego has an “Aa3” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s. The credit rating agency said that Rady Children’s has an extremely high market share in San Diego County and benefits from its status as a regional referral center for tertiary and quaternary pediatric services. The health system also has very strong liquidity, Moody’s said. 

7. Stanford (Calif.) Health has an “AA” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The credit rating agency said the hospital has a broad reach and benefits, as it is a clinical destination for high-acuity services, a largely favorable service area and a close relationship with Stanford University. Fitch said it expects the health system’s post-2021 EBITDA margin to be closer to its historical 11 percent operating margin. 

8. Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids, Mich., has an “Aa3” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s. The credit rating agency said the health system has a stable operating performance and strong balance sheet metrics. In particular, the system generated positive margins even without federal relief aid in fiscal year 2020. Moody’s added that the health system will continue to benefit from a strong market share for patient care in western Michigan. 

9. SSM Health in St. Louis has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The credit rating agency said it has a strong financial profile and a solid market presence in multiple states with no dependence on any one location. Fitch also said its expanding health plan is a credit positive. 

10. Birmingham, Ala.-based UAB Medicine has an “Aa3” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s. The credit rating agency said the health system has high patient demand, strong margins and a leading market share in Birmingham. The credit rating agency expects UAB Medicine to generate strong cash flow in fiscal year 2021.