Category Archives: Economy Reopening

Most consumers nervous about returning to care settings

Posted on by • Posted in Clinical Testing, Communication, Coronavirus, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Health System, High Deductible Health Plans, High Drug Prices, High Premiums, High Prices, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Office Visit, Out of Pocket Expenses, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Determinants of Health, Social Distancing, Telemedicine, Trust, Truth, Underinsured, Uninsured • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/aa7806a422dd/the-weekly-gist-may-8-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

As non-essential businesses begin to reopen, there’s no guarantee that merely opening the doors will make customers return. A recent Morning Consult poll provides an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on consumer confidence: fewer than one in five US adults are currently comfortable doing (formerly) everyday activities like eating at a restaurant or going to a shopping mall.

The graphic below provides similar data for healthcare. Consumers’ willingness to visit healthcare providers in person for non-COVID care is only slightly better, at 21 percent. Which providers might see patients return most quickly?

Consumers say they are about twice as likely to visit their primary care doctor’s office than other healthcare facilities, including hospitals, specialists, and walk-in clinics. And when it comes to scheduling a routine in-office visit, nearly half say they will wait two to six months, with almost one in ten not comfortable going to a doctor’s office in person for a year or more.

Healthcare facilities face an uphill battle in bringing back patients—many of whom have ongoing chronic diseases that necessitate care now. Reaching patients through telemedicine and providing concrete messages about how they can safely see their doctor will be critical to staving off a tide of disease exacerbations that will mount as fear delays much-needed care.

 

 

 

Reopening with a wary eye on troubling virus trends

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Job, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Determinants of Health, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/aa7806a422dd/the-weekly-gist-may-8-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

Apex man diaries 13-day struggle with cough, fever, wait for ...

With most states either reopening or planning to reopen shortly, the coronavirus showed few signs of loosening its grip on the US this week. Daily death totals continued to hover near 2,000, with more than 77,000 Americans having succumbed to COVID-19—a statistic that almost surely undercounts the true toll of the virus. While the situation continues to improve in “hot-spot” areas hit early like New York City and Detroit, the number of newly confirmed cases is still rising in other parts of the country, including in many of the states that have already begun to reopen.

In testimony before the House appropriations subcommittee on Wednesday, a senior infectious disease researcher from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said that no state now reopening meets recommended benchmarks for declining cases, sufficient testing and contact tracing, and adequate protective equipment for healthcare workers.

The White House sent mixed signals this week in response to states’ efforts to reopen ahead of the gating criteria it set in its Opening Up America Again plan, delaying the release of detailed CDC guidelines designed help businesses returning to work, denying the validity of leaked internal projections showing the likelihood of increasing infections and deaths, and oscillating between sidelining, and then refocusing, its coronavirus task force.

However, there was some good news this week in the battle with coronavirus. There are now 108 candidate vaccines under investigation, with a handful in clinical trials. One, a messenger RNA-based vaccine developed by drug company Moderna, was approved by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to enter Phase 2 trials on Thursday. Coronavirus testing, critical to the country’s ability to reopen safely, continued to ramp up as well, and the closely-watched “positivity rate” (an indicator of how widespread testing is—lower is better) fell nationwide.

After last week’s FDA emergency use authorization for Gilead Sciences’ promising antiviral drug remdesivir, the company began ramping up production, although frustration mounted after only about two dozen hospitals were chosen by the government to receive scarce existing supplies. Meanwhile, the federal government began to share data on which providers have received bailout money from CARES Act funding—relief sorely needed given the massive economic hit caused by the shutdown.

With the release of April unemployment numbers on Friday—showing a staggering 14.7 percent unemployment rate—the disastrous impact of the virus on the healthcare industry became more apparent. The sector lost 1.4M jobs last month, mostly on the ambulatory side. With each passing week, it becomes clearer that the recovery from the coronavirus’ assault on America will be lengthy, uneven, and difficult.

 

 

 

See Which States Are Reopening and Which Are Still Shut Down

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Clinical Testing, Coronavirus, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Determinants of Health, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

See Which States Are Reopening and Which Are Still Shut Down - The ...

In Georgia, barbers are giving haircuts armed with face masks and latex gloves. In Texas, movie theaters are filling with customers, who crunch on popcorn several seats away from the nearest stranger. People are sweating at gyms again in Tennessee.

America’s reopening has begun in force, just weeks after the coronavirus put most of the country on lockdown.

More than half the states have started to reopen their economies in some meaningful way or have plans to do so soon, raising concerns among public health experts about a possible surge in new infections and deaths. Many states that are reopening failed to meet criteria recommended by the Trump administration before loosening restrictions on businesses and social activities.

The New York Times is tracking when orders to stay at home are lifted in each state, as well as when broad reopenings are allowed in public spaces, such as restaurants, retail stores, salons, gyms and houses of worship. In some cases, stay-at-home orders are lifting separately from restrictions on businesses. This page will be updated regularly.

Businesses are almost universally reopening under restrictions, such as allowing fewer customers, requiring workers and customers to wear masks, and enforcing social distancing. Even as governors lift orders, stricter local orders may remain in place by city or county.

 

 

 

 

States face economic death spiral from Coronavirus

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https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-states-economy-295ac091-9dc2-4852-be67-d070ec268d8c.html

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN STATE TAX REVENUES

April 2020 vs. April 2019, select states

States face economic death spiral from coronavirus - Business Insider

 

Early numbers show how significantly the coronavirus is devastating states’ revenue streams — and could force choices between raising taxes or gutting services and laying off public employees.

Why it matters: Even as some states move toward reopening, the economic ramifications of having shut down will haunt them far into the future.

  • When states can reopen, and how quickly industries are able to bounce back, could either worsen or improve projections.

What to watch: Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) plan to introduce bipartisan legislation as soon as next week that would create a $500 billion fund designed to help struggling state and municipality budgets in the wake of COVID-19.

  • “If there was another way to do this, I’d rather do it the other way,” Cassidy tells Axios. “But what I don’t want to happen is all this money spent for families and for employers to go to waste because cities cannot provide essential services.”
  • Menendez tells Axios: “This is the time to step up to the plate.”

By the numbers: The Urban Institute has been compiling lost revenue data as states make it publicly available. So far, there are figures for about one in four states that compare this April’s state income and sales tax revenue collections against those from April 2019.

  • The data shows collections dropping between 20% and more than 50%, depending on the state, senior researcher Lucy Dadayan tells Axios — and those figures could get worse as new data comes in.
  • South Dakota is an outlier in the states the Urban Institute has tracked so far, in that revenues actually appear up for April. That may be largely because it is one of very few states that did not issue a stay at home order. But experts expect to see revenue declines next month.
  • Although it has not yet released April sales tax numbers to enable a year-over-year comparison, California’s staggering tax revenue loss due to COVID-19 has led to an expected $54.3 billion budget shortfall through FY 2021 — including a $13.4 billion shortfall this fiscal year, the governor announced Thursday. That’s with a $21 billion surplus last year.
  • New York also has yet to release April tax revenue data, but its latest budget projection has the state short as much as $13.3 billion in FY 2021, according to Dadayan’s analysis of most recent state budget projections. Illinois is looking at a more than $4.6 billion shortfall for next fiscal year.
  • Arizona is projecting to be short more than half a billion dollars for this fiscal year.
  • The projected shortfalls for FY 2020, which ends at the end of June for most states, is arguably a bigger problem because there isn’t much time left to make changes, per Axios’ Dan Primack.

The big picture: Democratic-leaning cities have seen the highest case and death rates. But red and blue states alike are facing serious budget shortfalls.

  • That’s why some Republican senators are getting behind efforts to provide federal dollars to help states balance budgets.
  • Even after accounting for state emergency savings accounts — which in many states were at an all-time high — 33 states will likely need to fill budget gaps of 5% or more, according to a recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics.
  • 21 states would need to fill gaps of 10% or more.
  • “Anybody is going to be overwhelmed by this — even states who were well prepared,” Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research at Moody’s Analytics, tells Axios.

Between the lines: Much of the burden will likely be pushed on struggling local governments’ plates, White said.

  • Cities have also lost smaller revenue sources such as hotel occupancy fees, inspection fees and construction fees.
  • Some could be forced to lay off public workers needed to combat the virus and keep the public safe — such as firefighters, paramedics, public hospital workers.
  • It’s either that or raise taxes in the midst of high unemployment and financial insecurity. “That’s the death spiral,” said Menendez, who has been talking with mayors across his state.
  • New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has already said he may have to start furloughing municipal employees if the city doesn’t receive federal funds to help fill budget gaps.

Some state and local governments will wait to make tough budget decisions in the hopes that they get needed funds from Congress, which is in heated negotiations around the fourth stimulus package.

Republican lawmakers have been hesitant to provide this much federal help to states, but they’ve been warming to the idea.

  • Menendez says he expects several Republican senators besides Cassidy to sign on to their proposal.

 

 

 

The New Culture War

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Disease Resurgence, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Job, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, Pandemic, Partisanship, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Scientists, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

American Identity Is The New Culture War - Auburn Seminary

You’re either a liberal snowflake controlled by big government or a greedy conservative willing to sacrifice Grandma for the economy. It took less than two months for Americans to get here.

Wear a mask? You’re a liberal snowflake controlled by big government. Want to reopen restaurants? You’re a greedy conservative willing to sacrifice Grandma for the economy.

It took less than two months for the coronavirus pandemic to become just the latest battle in the culture wars.

With the country still in the firm grip of the coronavirus pandemic, conservatives are on social media and Fox News stoking protests that argue masks, stay-at-home orders and social distancing violate constitutional rights and are causing unacceptable harm to the economy.

Liberals, at the same time, say personal liberties must be sacrificed for public health, even as millions file for unemployment and more than a quarter of the work force is jobless in some states.

Take a look at what two governors — one from a reliably Republican state and another from a reliably Democratic state — said this week.

“We have a public health crisis in this country, there’s no doubt about it,” Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi said in an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.” “But we also have an economic crisis.”

“We have turned the corner and we are on the decline,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, citing an article showing that the death rate has fallen by half in New York City, in his daily briefing on Wednesday. “To me, that vindicates what we are doing here in New York, which says: Follow the science, follow the data, put the politics aside and the emotion aside. What we’re doing here shows results.”

The problem with all these politics? Epidemiology.

So far, the virus has hit Democratic states the hardest, with the most cases per capita in five deeply Democratic states — New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and Illinois. Cities have borne the brunt of the caseload. And African-Americans and Latinos — a key part of the Democratic coalition — are getting sick and dying of the virus at higher rates.

But anyone who believes this virus is fading away — or somehow contained to urban areas — is engaging in some serious magical thinking.

At least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified almost daily, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world — is expanding daily by 2 to 4 percent.

A New York Times analysis found that 18 of the states that are reopening had an increase of daily average cases over the last two weeks. Fifteen of those states are led by Republican governors.

Three of the top five states where the virus is spreading the fastest — Texas, Georgia and Ohio — have Republican governors and Republican-controlled legislatures. All three have moved toward reopening.

In the Midwest and South, smaller towns and more rural areas have suddenly been hit hard as the virus tears through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons.

The nation’s highest per capita infection rate can be found in Trousdale County, Tenn., a rural county where a prison has become a hot spot. Businesses in the county are reopening this week.

In the Trump era, rural counties like Trousdale have represented the backbone of the Republican base. In Trousdale, nearly 67 percent of the county supported President Trump in 2016. Over all, the average margin of victory in rural counties won by Republicans was nearly 47 percent in 2016.

Rural areas tend to be older and have a larger share of the population with pre-existing medical conditions, making them far more vulnerable to the worst health effects of the virus.

Republican governors and conservative activists may think the coronavirus is an urban problem. Or a density problem. Or, quite frankly, a Democratic problem.

They may soon find out that it’s not.

 

 

 

 

Reopening the U.S. Economy

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Antibodies, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Clinical Research, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Disease Outbreaks, Disease Resurgence, Economic Crisis, Economic Recovery, Economy, Economy Reopening, Health Policy, Herd Immunity, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing, Vaccination, Vaccine • Leave a comment

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/reopening-the-us-economy.html

Click to access report.pdf

Allison Nathan, senior strategist for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses her latest Top of Mind report where she speaks with leading experts across health and policy to understand how well-positioned the U.S. is to achieve a safe reopening of the economy and how quickly it would translate into economic recovery. 

With COVID-19 mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case
growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue
to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have
already started to implement—economic reopening. But absent herd immunity or
a vaccine for the virus, such reopenings increase the risk of disease resurgence.
With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the
US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic
recovery is Top of Mind. We consult three experts on these questions: University of
Pennsylvania’s Dr. Zeke Emanuel, Duke University’s Dr. Mark McClellan and Harvard
University’s Dr. Barry Bloom. And we share our own take on a potential US recovery path, informed by lessons from
China’s reopening experience so far. Finally, with more complete economic normalization only likely with an effective
testing regime, treatments, or a widely available vaccine for COVID-19-we discuss where we are on all of the above.