Coronavirus Cases Rise Sharply in Prisons Even as They Plateau Nationwide

Protesters held a rally to bring awareness about the spread of the coronavirus inside the Marion Correctional Institution in Marion, Ohio, in May.

Prison officials have been reluctant to do widespread virus testing even as infection rates are escalating.

Cases of the coronavirus in prisons and jails across the United States have soared in recent weeks, even as the overall daily infection rate in the nation has remained relatively flat.

The number of prison inmates known to be infected has doubled during the past month to more than 68,000. Prison deaths tied to the coronavirus have also risen, by 73 percent since mid-May. By now, the five largest known clusters of the virus in the United States are not at nursing homes or meatpacking plants, but inside correction institutions, according to data The New York Times has been collecting about confirmed coronavirus cases since the pandemic reached American shores.

And the risk of more cases appears imminent: The swift growth in virus cases behind bars comes as demonstrators arrested as part of large police brutality protests across the nation have often been placed in crowded holding cells in local jails.

A muddled, uneven response by corrections officials to testing and care for inmates and workers is complicating the spread of the coronavirus. In interviews, prison and jail officials acknowledged that their approach has largely been based on trial and error, and that an effective, consistent response for U.S. correctional facilities remains elusive.

“If there was clearly a right strategy, we all would have done it,” said Dr. Owen Murray, a University of Texas Medical Branch physician who oversees correctional health care at dozens of Texas prisons. “There is no clear-cut right strategy here. There are a lot of different choices that one could make that are going to be in-the-moment decisions.”

The inconsistent response to the spread of the coronavirus in correctional facilities is in contrast with efforts to halt its spread in other known incubators of the virus: Much of the cruise ship industry has been closed down. Staff members and residents of nursing homes in several states now face compulsory testing. Many meat processing plants have been shuttered for extensive cleaning.

As the toll in prisons has increased, so has fear among inmates who say the authorities have done too little to protect them. There have been riots and hunger strikes in correctional facilities from Washington State to New York. And even the known case numbers are likely a significant undercount because testing has been extremely limited inside prisons and because some places that test do not release the results to the public.

“It’s like a sword hanging over my head,” said Fred Roehler, 77, an inmate at a California prison who has chronic inflammatory lung disease and other respiratory ailments. “Any officer can bring it in.”

Public officials have long warned that the nation’s correctional facilities would likely become vectors in the pandemic because they are often overcrowded, unsanitary places where social distancing is impractical, bathrooms and day rooms are shared by hundreds of inmates, and access to cleaning supplies is tightly controlled. Many inmates are 60 or older, and many suffer from respiratory illnesses or heart conditions.

In response, local jails have discharged thousands of inmates since February, many of whom had been awaiting trials to have charges heard or serving time for nonviolent crimes. State prison systems, where people convicted of more serious crimes are housed, have been more reluctant to release inmates.

Testing for the virus within the nation’s penal institutions varies widely, and has become a matter of significant debate.

Republican-led states like Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas — which generally spend less on prisoners than the national average — have found themselves at the forefront of testing inmates.

In Texas, the number of prisoners and staff members known to be infected has more than quadrupled to 7,900 during the past three weeks after the state began to test every inmate.

Yet states that typically spend far more on prisons have carried out significantly less testing.

California, which spends $12 billion annually on its prison system, has tested fewer than 7 percent of inmates in several of its largest, most crowded facilities, according to the state’s data. Other Democratic-led states that also spend heavily on prisons, including New York, Oregon and Colorado, have also conducted limited testing despite large outbreaks in their facilities.

New York has tested about 3 percent of its 40,000 prison inmates; more than 40 percent of those tested were infected.

Critics say that the dearth of testing in some facilities has meant that prison and public health officials have only vague notions about the spread of the virus, which has allowed some elected officials to suggest that it is not present at all.

“We have really no true idea of how bad the problem is because most places are not yet testing the way they should,” said Dr. Homer Venters, who served as chief medical officer for the New York City jail system and now works for a group called Community Oriented Correctional Health Services, which works to improve health care services in local jails. “I think a lot of times some of the operational challenges of either not having adequate quarantine policies or adequate medical isolation policies are so vexing that places simply decide that they can just throw up their hands.”

Most state prison systems have conducted few tests. Systems in Illinois, Mississippi and Alabama have tested fewer than 2.5 percent of inmates. And in Louisiana, officials had tested several dozen of its 31,000 inmates in March when the warden and medical director at one of the state’s largest prisons died of the coronavirus. The state has since announced plans to test every inmate.

Prison officials in states where only a limited number of inmates have been tested say they are following federal guidelines. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that only prisoners with symptoms be tested.

Prisons that have conducted mass testing have found that about one in seven tests of inmates have come back positive, the Times database shows. The vast majority of inmates who have tested positive have been asymptomatic.

Public health officials say that indicates the virus has been present in prison populations for far longer than had previously been understood.

“If you don’t do testing, you’re flying blind,” said Carlos Franco-Paredes, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Colorado School of Medicine.

But in California, there continues to be reluctance to test each of the state’s 114,000 inmates, despite growing criticism to take a more aggressive approach. One in six inmates in the state’s prisons have been tested, and the state has released some inmates who were later found to have the virus, raising fears that prison systems could seed new infections outside penal institutions.

“Nothing significant had been done to protect those most vulnerable to the virus,” said Marie Waldron, the Republican minority leader of the California State Assembly.

But J. Clark Kelso, who oversees prison health care in California, said that mass testing would provide only a snapshot of the virus’s spread.

“Testing’s not a complete solution,” Mr. Kelso said. “It gives you better information, but you don’t want to get a false sense of security.”

California’s health department has recommended that a facility’s prison inmates and staff members be given priority for testing once an infection has been identified there.

But the state prison system has conducted mass testing at only a handful of institutions where infections have been found, according to state data. In one of those facilities, the California Institution for Men in Chino, nearly 875 people have tested positive and 13 inmates have died.

Instead, California has employed surveillance testing, which involves testing a limited number of inmates at each state prison regardless of the known infection rate.

That method, Mr. Kelso said, had led officials to conclude that the vast majority of its prisons are free of the virus.

“We’re not 100 percent confident because we’re not testing everyone,” he said. “As we learn every single day from what we’re doing, we may suddenly decide, ‘No, we actually have to test all of them.’ We’re not at that point yet.”

In interviews, California prison inmates say prison staff have sometimes refused to test them, even after they complained about symptoms similar to the coronavirus. Several prisoners said they had been too weak to move for weeks at a time, but were never permitted to see a nurse and had never been tested.

“I had chest pains. I couldn’t breathe,” said Althea Housley, 43, an inmate at Folsom State Prison, where no inmates have tested positive, according to state data. “They told us it was the flu going around, but I ain’t never had a flu like that.”

Mr. Kelso did not dispute the prisoners’ accounts.

In Texas, mass testing has found that nearly 8,000 inmates and guards have been infected. Sixty-two people have died, including some who had not exhibited symptoms.

Dr. Murray, the physician who oversees much of Texas’ prison health care system, said the disparate approaches taken by prison authorities might actually be beneficial as officials compare notes.

“I’m glad we’ve got 50 states and everyone is trying to do something a little different — whether that’s by intent or not — because it’s really the only basis that we’re going to have for comparison later on,” he said.

But Baleegh Brown, 31, an inmate at a California prison, said he was displeased about being part of what he considered a science experiment. His prison has had more than 170 infections.

He said that he and his cellmate are confined to a 6-by-9-foot space for about 22 hours each day as the prison tries to prevent the virus from spreading further. Mr. Brown said he had a weakened immune system after a case of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, making him particularly vulnerable to illness.

“We need more testing here so everyone knows for sure,” he said. “And for me, my body has been compromised, so I don’t know how it is going to react. That makes all you don’t know even scarier.”

 

 

Nursing homes go unchecked as fatalities mount

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/nursing-homes-coronavirus-321220

Health workers help a patient into Cobble Hill Health Center

About half of all facilities have yet to be inspected for procedures to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Thousands of nursing homes across the country have not been checked to see if staff are following proper procedures to prevent coronavirus transmission, a form of community spread that is responsible for more than a quarter of the nation’s Covid-19 fatalities.

Only a little more than half of the nation’s nursing homes had received inspections, according to data released earlier this month, which prompted a fresh mandate from Medicare and Medicaid chief Seema Verma that states complete the checks by July 31 or risk losing federal recovery funds.

A POLITICO survey of state officials, however, suggests that the lack of oversight of nursing homes has many roots. Many states that were hit hard by the virus say they chose to provide protective gear to frontline health workers rather than inspectors, delaying in-person checks for weeks if not months. Some states chose to assess facilities remotely, conducting interviews over the phone and analyzing documentation, a process many experts consider inadequate.

In places where state officials claimed that in-person inspections have taken place, the reports found no issues in the overwhelming majority of cases, even as Covid-19 claimed more than 31,000 deaths in nursing homes. Less than 3 percent of the more than 5,700 inspection surveys the federal government released this month had any infection control deficiencies, according to a report on Thursday by the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit patient activist group.

“It is not possible or believable that the infection control surveys accurately portray the extent of infection control deficiencies in U.S. nursing facilities,” the report states.

Noting the vast and unprecedented danger that the coronavirus presents to the elderly and people with disabilities, patient advocates described the lack of inspections as a shocking oversight.

“If you’re not going in, you’re essentially taking the providers’ word that they’re doing a good job,” said Richard Mollot, the executive director of the Long Term Care Community Coalition.

In March, the Trump administration paused routine nursing home inspections, which typically occur about once a year. Instead, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services asked that state agencies focus on inspecting facilities for their infection control practices, such as whether staff wash their hands or properly wear protective clothing before tending to multiple patients.

But for more than two months, state inspectors failed to enter half the country’s homes — a revelation that prompted CMS to crack down.

“We are saying you need to be doing more inspections,” Verma told reporters, explaining her message to states. “We called on states in early March to go into every single nursing home and to do a focused inspection around infection control.”

In some hard-hit states, inspectors conducted remote surveys rather than going into nursing homes, a process that involved speaking to staff by phone and reviewing records. In Pennsylvania, for example, inspectors conducted interviews and reviewed documents for 657 facilities from March 13 to May 15 — most of which was done remotely.

But critics say the failure to make in-person checks prevented states from identifying lapses at a crucial time. The fact that family members were blocked from visiting their relatives — a policy intended to prevent the virus from entering the facility — removed another source of accountability in homes, some of which ended up having more than half of their residents stricken with the coronavirus.

Keeping relatives out of nursing homes — a policy that continues — has made it more difficult to advocate on behalf of residents in the state, said Karen Buck, executive director of the Pennsylvania-based SeniorLAW Center. More than 4,000 residents of nursing homes and other personal care facilities have died of coronavirus in the Keystone State.

“The inspections are vital,” said Buck. “I think access to residents is essential, and we are very concerned that Pennsylvanians are behind where we should be. We recognize these are very difficult times for our leaders, but we can’t continue to wait.”

Pennsylvania officials maintained that the remote inspections were beneficial, and said they went into the facilities when they felt there was significant concern over residents’ health.

“We can conduct the same interviews, review the same documentation and do all the same actions we could in person, except for the ability to be on-site,” health department spokesperson Nate Wardle wrote in an email, adding that Verma’s office approved the remote procedures earlier this spring.

Nonetheless, many public health experts say they believe states have erred in choosing not to prioritize nursing home inspectors when handing out protective equipment. While it makes sense to direct resources to front-line workers, nursing home inspectors were only a tiny number of people compared to the hundreds of thousands of hospital employees — and experts contend that the situation in nursing facilities was dire enough to require immediate action.

David Grabowski, an expert in aging and long-term care at Harvard Medical School, said he understands inspectors were put in a tough position in the early days of the pandemic, but that inspections needed to be ramped up within a few weeks.

“I think after those first few weeks we should have had personal protective equipment in place for the inspectors and doing these inspections remotely is really second best,” he said.

And yet state after state waited on inspections or performed them remotely.

In Utah, only a small portion of the state’s nearly 100 facilities received inspections over the first three months of the pandemic. Only now is the state health department ramping up on-site inspections, with the goal of hitting all of its nursing homes by the second week of July. It conducted 14 last week, and received some help from federal inspectors with another four.

The state survey agency said it made a conscious determination not to request protective equipment for state inspectors in the initial phase of the pandemic, fearing they would take supplies away from frontline health providers, said Greg Bateman, the head of long-term care surveys. Instead, the department conducted 43 remote reviews and talked to nursing homes at least twice a week.

In Idaho, state inspectors have only recently received the N95 masks, face shields and gowns necessary to perform inspections.

“The reason we had difficulty is because Idaho, like many other states, was challenged to secure adequate PPE to meet the needs of the various health care entities,” health department spokesperson Niki Forbing-Orr wrote in an email. “The state surveyors had concerns about potentially using PPE that other entities could use that provide direct medical services and care to Idaho residents.”

In New Jersey, which has seen roughly 6,000 deaths in nursing homes and other communal settings, the health department also first chose sending supplies to frontline workers in nursing homes and hospitals. The state began making in-person checks when it received PPE April 16, said Dawn Thomas, a New Jersey health department spokesperson.

But New Jersey still has a long way to go. The state has completed inspections in only about 115 out of more than 360 nursing homes as of June 3, according to Thomas.

While Pennsylvania, Idaho, New Jersey and other states complained of a lack of PPE, other states battling major outbreaks of coronavirus in nursing homes have completed nearly all of their inspections, calling into question the explanations for why others have struggled.

Washington state, where the Life Care Center of Kirkland became an early epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, has completed 99 percent of its inspections, the state reported this spring to CMS. And Michigan, which has had nearly 2,000 deaths in nursing homes, has completed nearly 85 percent of its inspections.

By contrast, states such as West Virginia and Maryland, with only 11.4 and 16.4 percent of facilities inspected as of the end of May, lagged way behind.

A nursing home in Maryland’s Carroll County served as an early example of just how quickly the coronavirus can ravage nursing homes. On March 26, a resident at a Carroll County, Md., facility tested positive for the coronavirus. Two weeks later, the number of confirmed cases was up to 77 out of 95 residents, along with 24 staff members. At least 28 residents have died.

A Maryland health department spokesperson says the state took “early and aggressive measures” to address the virus in nursing homes, noting that Maryland created the country’s first strike teams — composed of state and local health officials, medical professionals and National Guard members — to help triage seniors and scrutinize facilities.

Nonetheless, state inspectors didn’t have personal protective equipment until late April, according to the health department.

“In April, PPE acquisition was challenging across the nation and in Maryland due to the rapidly evolving Covid-19 pandemic,” the spokesperson wrote in an email, adding that the department sought N95 masks, gowns and other items from “the national stockpile, FEMA and national and international supply chains.”

With many facilities still closed to visitors, the slow pace of inspections lost a key window into the nursing homes during the pandemic.

“I think having more eyes on what’s happening is really important,” Grabowski said.

Last month, the Health and Human Services’ watchdog agency announced plans to review the pace of inspections in nursing homes and barriers to completing them — referring to such checks as a “fundamental safeguard to ensure that nursing home residents are safe and receive high-quality care.”

“There is no substitute for boots on the ground — for going into a facility to assess whether a facility is abiding by long-standing infection control practices,” Verma told reporters this month.

 

 

 

How could reopenings, protests affect coronavirus infections?

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jun/09/how-could-reopenings-protests-affect-coronavirus-i/?fbclid=IwAR1tC4zpfVBq56fc2XDuOyKswBzwjPsXbe8CN4sv1yfCV-856_Qy2OXe298

Two women peer into a clothing store to see if it is open in Brooklyn, N.Y., on June 8, 2020, after New York reopened some retail stores. (AP)

IF YOUR TIME IS SHORT

Since April, the numbers of new cases and deaths from the coronavirus have been falling nationally, although the number of cases ticked slightly upward in the first week of June, a few weeks after many states ended their stay-at-home orders.

• The spread of the virus has varied significantly from state to state. Some states, especially those with longer-lasting stay-at-home orders, have seen cases fall since April. Others, including many that ended their closures earlier, have seen increases.

Scientists expect to see a rise in coronavirus cases in the coming weeks due to continued reopenings and the racial justice protests. However, it’s unclear how large those increases will be.

With most states reopening for business after shutting down for the novel coronavirus, some states are seeing an increase in infections. And with protest marches bringing together large numbers of people, some scientists worry that infections could rise further.

However, scientists say that there’s lots of uncertainty about whether, and how much, the coronavirus will spread following the lifting of stay-at-home orders and the emergence of protest marches for racial justice.

We looked at the most recent data and interviewed several researchers to explain what we’re seeing already, and what might happen in the future.

What are the overall trends for coronavirus cases and deaths?

Nationally, both cases and deaths have generally been falling since April, although cases saw a small uptick in early June.

Here’s a chart showing the number of new coronavirus cases confirmed each day since the outbreak began in late February. The blue bars show the number of new cases per day, while the orange line shows the seven-day rolling average, which smooths out technical differences in the daily reporting.

The pattern for coronavirus deaths has been similar, with a fairly consistent decline since mid-April.
Researchers said the spring stay-at-home orders are likely the main reason for the declining trend.

“The social distancing that resulted from the closures slowed cases,” said Tara C. Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State University.

Smith cited a recent study that estimated that the shutdowns prevented an additional 4.8 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S., and about 60 million infections in all. (The 60 million figure includes people who didn’t know they were infected and did not confirm their infection with a test.) So far, there have been roughly 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases.

The decline in cases has been driven by significant improvements in the hardest-hit area: the tri-state region of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Each of those states has seen the number of new cases decline consistently since April, as can be seen in this chart:

How has the timing of reopenings affected new-case patterns?

The national numbers mask considerable differences among the states in new caseloads.

Beyond New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, several other large states have seen declining caseloads over time.

Here’s a chart showing the patterns for Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia, all of which have seen declines in new cases in recent weeks:

But other states have seen increases in recent weeks. Here’s a look at the upward trends in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona:

One notable difference between the states with rising and falling numbers of new cases is the date they lifted their stay-at-home orders.

Almost every state in our chart that’s seeing rising numbers of new cases reopened between April 30 and May 22. (The one exception is California, which is a mystery to the experts we asked.)

By contrast, the states in our charts with falling numbers of new cases opened no earlier than May 28.

Experts said there are too many variables to conclude that reopening will inevitably produce rising new case counts. For instance, the virus’ spread may be proceeding differently in urban areas than in the rest of the state, something that the state-level data wouldn’t capture.

Also, the data we used are not adjusted for the number of tests being conducted. The more tests that are done, the more positive cases will be found, everything else being equal.

That said, if there is a connection between reopening and a rise in new cases, the states that delayed their openings may see their new case loads rise in the coming weeks.

“Until we have a vaccine for prevention, our ‘people’ interventions are what stand between us and the virus spreading,” said Nicole Gatto, an associate professor in the School of Community and Global Health at Claremont Graduate University. “Reopening efforts and mixing of people again will reintroduce the potential for viral transmission.”

What impact could the recent protest marches have on the virus’ spread?

For now, the impact of the protests on new caseloads is not showing up in the data. Any impact would become evident only in the next few weeks, as participants get tested and the results are tabulated.

Some aspects of the protests could promote the spread, experts said.

“The protests have ingredients which we have been making efforts to avoid these last three months: large gatherings of people in close proximity to each other not always wearing protective face coverings,” Gatto said. “Add in tear gas, and the recipe becomes worse.”

People who were arrested at protests and had to spend time in jail could also be at higher risk for infection, scientists said.

The best-case scenario, scientists said, is that the marches’ outdoor locations and the precautions taken by participants will cut down on the spread.

“Outdoor gatherings may present less transmission risk, especially when everyone is wearing a mask,” said Forrest W. Crawford, a biostatistician at Yale University.

While emphasizing the uncertainties, Smith said she was surprised by the relatively modest impact of the state reopenings on the virus’ spread so far. So there may be reason for cautious optimism.

“I’m expecting cases to grow over the next two weeks, but it’s really tough to say if it will be a spike or a less dramatic increase,” she said.

 

 

 

Cartoon – What your Face Mask says about you

Andrew Cuomo Allows Businesses to Deny Entry to Customers Not ...

 

Cartoon – Sheep at a Crossroads

Florida needs an executive order requiring wearing of face masks

Masks Help Stop The Spread Of Coronavirus, Studies Say—But Wearing Them Still A Political Issue

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/06/13/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-studies-say-but-wearing-them-still-a-political-issue/#1d0be5a0604e

Trump administration and Cuomo finally agree on one thing ...

TOPLINE

Despite a raft of data suggesting that wearing face masks (in conjunction with hand washing and social distancing) is effective in preventing person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus, the practice is still a partisan political issue in some places even as new cases continue to rise. 

 

KEY FACTS

new review published in The Lancet looked at 172 observational studies and found that masks are effective in many settings in preventing the spread of the coronavirus (though the results cannot be treated with absolute certainty since they were not obtained through randomized trials, the Washington Post notes).

Another recent study found that wearing a mask was the most effective way to reduce the transmission of the virus.

90% of Americans now say they’re wearing a mask in compliance with the CDC’s recommendations, up from 78% in April, according to a new poll conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for the Data Foundation.

But despite the conclusive research and what seems to be a public consensus, masks remain a divisive subject. 

As new coronavirus cases surge in Arizona, where cases have jumped 300% since the beginning of May, for instance, Governor Doug Ducey has not made it mandatory to wear masks in public, and in Orange County, California, officials on Friday rescinded a mask mandate after public backlash, even as cases rise; when cases peaked in April, on the other hand, New York made wearing a mask mandatory when people could not socially distance from others, and other states passed similar restrictions.

Part of the politicization of masks may have to do with resistance to heavy-handed government mandates, which in this case could cause people who are already skeptical of wearing face coverings to dig in their heels.

 

CRUCIAL QUOTE

Lindsay Wiley, an American University Washington College of Law professor specializing in public health law and ethics, told NPR last month that stringent mask requirements “can actually cause people who are skeptical of wearing masks to double down.” And in turn, that “reinforce[s] what they perceive to be a positive association with refusing to wear a mask … that they love freedom, that they’re smart and skeptical of public health recommendations.” 

 

KEY BACKGROUND

Masks have also become a heavily politicized issue in recent weeks: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last month voiced his support of mask wearing in public, for instance, in contrast to President Trump and other GOP leaders who have portrayed masks as a sign of weakness. Trump infamously refused to wear a face mask as he toured a Ford facility in Michigan last month. When asked about the mask, he said that he wore one in private but “didn’t want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has  voiced her support for the practice: “real men wear masks,” she said earlier this month.

 

TANGENT

A video posted to Twitter on Friday showed a street in New York City’s East Village that was packed with people ignoring social distancing guidelines, most of whom were not wearing masks, drew widespread criticism. “When there’s a new spike people will blame the (masked) protests, but it’s really gonna be maskless crap like this,” one Twitter user wrote. 

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo even weighed in on the scene. “Don’t make me come down there,” he tweeted.

 

 

 

 

Here Are All The States Where Coronavirus Cases Are Spiking

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/06/13/here-are-all-the-states-where-coronavirus-cases-are-spiking/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailydozen&cdlcid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#31fb4d452dd5

Here Are All The States Where Coronavirus Cases Are Spiking

TOPLINE

Some states are seeing a dramatic surge in new coronavirus infections even as reopening measures continue across the country, raising tough questions about whether those reopening efforts were premature and how officials will balance maintaining public safety with preventing more economic damage.  

 

KEY FACTS

Texas and Florida—two of the first states to reopen—both hit new daily highs last week. 

California also hit a record daily high last week, though one official attributed the spike to increased testing (Florida’s governor has also attributed his state’s spike to more testing).

Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Utah and Alaska have also seen surging case numbers over the last week.

On Friday, the CDC released new forecasts that singled out six states—Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah and Vermont—where the coronavirus death toll is likely to rise over the next month. 

Some states and cities have walked back reopening measures in response to surging cases: Oregon’s governor put the reopening process on pause on Friday after the state saw its highest level of new cases since the start of the pandemic; Utah’s governor issued a similar order, as did the mayor of Nashville, Tennessee.

According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins, more than 2 million Americans have contracted Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, since the beginning of the pandemic, and more than 114,000 have died. 

 

KEY BACKGROUND

Even though news of states hitting record levels of coronavirus cases day after day might make it seem like the U.S. is headed for a second wave of the virus, the country is still situated very firmly within the “first wave.” New infections peaked around 36,000 cases a day in April, according to New York Times data, and over the last month the number of new daily cases has held relatively steady around 20,000. Cases in former hot spots like New York and New Jersey have fallen dramatically while cases in many areas of the South and West continue to rise. For a true “second wave” of the virus to be possible, the virus would need to subside and then reappear. 

 

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“We really never quite finished the first wave,” Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of global health at Harvard University, told NPR. “And it doesn’t look like we are going to anytime soon.”

 

 

 

 

Fauci Says ‘Real Normality’ Unlikely For A Year As U.S. Continues Pandemic Slog

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/06/14/fauci-says-real-normality-unlikely-for-a-year-as-us-continues-pandemic-slog/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailydozen&cdlcid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#2511f59a1855

Fauci Says 'Real Normality' Unlikely For A Year As U.S. Continues ...

TOPLINE

Dr. Anthony Fauci told a British newspaper Sunday that something resembling normal life in the U.S. would likely return in “a year or so,” with the coronavirus pandemic expected to require social distancing and other mitigation efforts through the fall and winter, although political divisiveness, reopening efforts and the George Floyd protests could add more layers of difficulty to the country’s recovery.

KEY FACTS

“I would hope to get to some degree of real normality within a year or so. But I don’t think it’s this winter or fall,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told The Telegraph Sunday.

Fauci also told the newspaper that the travel ban from the U.K., the European Union, China and Brazil will likely stay in place for “months,” based on “what’s going on with the infection rate.”

Within the U.S., Florida, California and Texas hit all-time daily highs in reported Covid-19 cases, while the Centers for Disease Control predicted six states (Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah and Vermont) will see higher death tolls over the next month.

U.S., where states that aren’t making them mandatory, like California, are seeing cases spike while New York, where the protective gear is required, has the country’s lowest spread rate.

“We’re seeing several states, as they try to reopen and get back to normal, starting to see early indications [that] infections are higher than previously,” Fauci said.

BIG NUMBER

Over 2 million. That’s how many confirmed coronavirus cases are in the U.S., which leads the world both in the number of infections and casualties from the disease, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Despite Fauci’s immediate conservative outlook on when life can return to normal, he’s hopeful that multiple Covid-19 vaccines could be found by the end of 2020. “We have potential vaccines making significant progress. We have maybe four or five,” he told The Telegraph. Although “you can never guarantee success with a vaccine,” Fauci added, from “everything we have seen from early results, it’s conceivable we get two or three vaccines that are successful.”

SURPRISING FACT

The U.S. is not facing a second wave of coronavirus. “We really never quite finished the first wave,” according to Dr. Ashish Jha, a global health professor at Harvard. In an NPR interview, Jha said the first wave is unlikely to be finished “anytime soon.”

KEY BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization designated the coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of Sunday, the pandemic is approaching its fifth month, and few countries have had success in beating back their outbreaks. New Zealand has essentially returned to normal life after eliminating coronavirus, while countries like the U.S., the U.K. and Brazil, among others, continue to see new cases and report deaths.

Within the U.S., efforts to reduce cases and deaths, like mask wearing, have become partisan political issues. Desires both from elected officials and some citizens to reopen economies have also impacted the pandemic, as states that reopened earlier, like Florida, are seeing numbers of cases spike. Concerns that recent protests sparked by George Floyd’s killing will also further spread the coronavirus are present, but have not yet been proven, as symptoms can take up to 14 days to develop.

 

 

Beijing goes into ‘wartime mode’ as virus emerges at market

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/beijing-goes-into-wartime-mode-as-virus-emerges-at-market-in-chinese-capital/2020/06/13/65c5aac8-ad40-11ea-868b-93d63cd833b2_story.html?stream=top&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Beijing district in 'wartime emergency mode' after spike in local ...

A district in central Beijing has gone into “wartime mode” after discovering a cluster of coronavirus cases around the biggest meat and vegetable market in the city, raising the prospect of a second wave of infections in the sensitive capital, the seat of the Chinese Communist Party.

The discovery of dozens of infections, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, underscores the perniciousness of the virus and its propensity to spread despite tight social controls.

“We would like to warn everyone not to drop their guard even for a second in epidemic prevention control; we must be prepared for a prolonged fight with the virus,” Xu Hejian, a spokesman for the Beijing municipal government, said at a news conference Saturday.

“We have to stay alert to the risks of imported cases and to the fact that epidemic control in our city is complicated and serious and will be here for a long time,” he said.

Coronavirus surges across the U.S.

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As more Texas businesses open, health experts watch and wait

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are reaching alarming levels in some states.

What they’re saying: “Arizona is the new national hotspot for COVID-19 with more than 4,400 new cases in just the last 72 hours. Per capita, Arizona’s infection rate is now more than three times higher than New York state. It’s spreading like wildfire,” Rep. Greg Stanton tweeted last night.

The big picture: Several states have seen record numbers of new cases over the last few days, including Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South CarolinaReuters reports.

  • On Saturday, Texas reported 2,242 coronavirus hospitalizations — a record for the state, per the Houston Chronicle. Health officials are becoming concerned about hospital capacity.
  • Arkansas, North Carolina and Utah also had record numbers of patients enter the hospital on Saturday, per Reuters.
  • South Carolina recorded nearly 800 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, setting another single-day record and raising the state’s seven-day average for the 17th day straight,” the Post and Courier reports.

The bottom line: There’s never been any reason to think that states with mild outbreaks in April weren’t at risk of having a crisis in June, especially states that haven’t taken lockdowns or social distancing as seriously.

  • “This is not the second wave of the pandemic in states like Arizona, Texas, Utah, California, and Florida. Unlike in New York, the first wave never ended in these places,” the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Larry Levitt tweeted.