Category Archives: 2028 Election Issues

Pressure points: 5 ways the shutdown could end

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Govt Shutdown, State of the Union • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
Pressure points: 5 ways the shutdown could end

Congress on Wednesday enters the eighth day of the federal shutdown with neither party giving an inch and the path to a resolution nowhere in sight. 

But something will have to give if lawmakers hope to reopen the government in any timely fashion, and that movement will likely be the result of external forces exerting pressure on one party — or both of them — to break the deadlock.

That’s been the case in the protracted shutdowns of years past, when a number of outside factors — from economic sirens to public frustration — have combined to compel lawmakers to cede ground and carry their policy battles to another day.

Public sentiment

Among the most recycled quotes on Capitol Hill is attributed to Abraham Lincoln: “Public sentiment is everything.” The trouble, in these early stages of the shutdown fight, is that the verdict is still out on where that sentiment will land.

That uncertainty has led both parties to dig in while they await more concrete evidence of which side is bearing the brunt of the blame. But those polls are coming, and if history is any indication, they will be a potent factor in forcing at least one side to shift positions for the sake of ending the shutdown. 

That was the case in 2013, when Republicans demanding a repeal of ObamaCare saw their approval ratings plummet — and dropped their campaign after 16 days without winning any concessions. A similar dynamic governed the shutdown of 2018 and 2019 — the longest in history — when Republicans agreed to reopen the government without securing the border wall money they’d insisted upon. 

A recent CBS poll found that 39 percent of voters blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown; 30 percent blame congressional Democrats; and 31 percent blame both parties equally. 

A Harvard/Harris poll also showed that more respondents blame Republicans, 53 to 47 percent, but nearly two-thirds believe Democrats should accept the GOP’s stopgap funding bill without a fix for the expiring Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.

The ambiguity of those sentiments has heightened the partisan blame game — and has given both sides an incentive to hold the line until a clearer picture emerges. 

Air traffic controller issues

It was nearly seven years ago that the 35-day shutdown ended after travel chaos and short-staffing of air traffic controllers brought immense strain on the aviation sector — and trouble is already starting up again. 

An uptick of air traffic controllers calling in sick Monday forced numerous flight delays and cancellations, prompting concerns that a reprisal of what happened in 2019 could be starting up again. 

“We should all be worried,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who was part of informal rank-and-file talks last week about a possible resolution.

Transportation Security Administration workers and air traffic controllers are all considered essential workers, with the Department of Transportation announcing more than 13,000 controllers are set to work without pay during this shutdown.

Those calling in sick prompted delays at numerous big airports, including Denver International Airport and Newark Liberty International Airport. The Hollywood Burbank Airport went without any air traffic controller on-site for nearly six hours Monday. 

Just like the record-setting 2019 shutdown, Democrats are counting on this issue creating problems for Trump and Republicans. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told reporters that he and other local officials are holding a press event at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport on Wednesday to highlight the rising issue.

“It had a direct impact on people’s abilities to get around the country,” Van Hollen said of the 2019 shutdown issue. “Donald Trump shut down the government in his first term, and he needs to end the shutdown he ended in the second term.”

Frozen paychecks

The central, defining factor of any shutdown is the scaling back of federal services and the siloing of hundreds of thousands of federal employees. Some of those workers are deemed “essential,” meaning they still have to come to work, while others are furloughed, meaning they’ll stay at home. But both groups share the unenviable position of not being paid until the government reopens.

That reality will hit home Oct. 10, when the first round of federal paychecks will fail to go out. The most immediate impact, of course, is on those workers and their families, who will have to find alternative ways to pay bills and make ends meet. 

But the pain will also reverberate through the broader economy, as federal workers stay at home and avoid the types of routine daily purchases — lunches, cabs, haircuts — that can make local economies hum. 

The numbers are enormous. 

The White House Council of Economic Advisers has estimated that every week of the shutdown will reduce the nation’s gross domestic product by $15 billion. 

“This is resulting in crippling economic losses right now,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) warned Tuesday. “A monthlong shutdown would mean not just 750,000 federal civilian employees furloughed right now, but an additional 43,000 more unemployed Americans across the economy, because that is the effect, the ripple effect, that it has in the private sector.”

In a typical shutdown, furloughed workers receive back pay for the days lost during the impasse, providing a delayed bump in economic activity. But even that customary practice is now in question in the face of a threat from Trump’s budget office to withhold back pay for certain workers. Others, Trump has said, will be fired altogether.

The combination is sure to exacerbate a volatile economy that’s already been roiled by declining consumer confidence, sinking job creation and Trump’s tariffs. Whichever party suffers the blame for the economic strain will come under the most pressure to cave in the shutdown fight. 

Military paychecks

Pay for members of the military has been a constant talking point in past shutdowns, and that’s no different this go-around.

Military service members could miss their paychecks Oct. 15, a date front and center for lawmakers.

Johnson huddled with Senate Republicans on Tuesday during their weekly policy luncheon and told reporters afterward that he is considering having the House vote on a bill to pay troops. 

“I’m certainly open to that. We’ve done it in the past. We want to make sure our troops are paid,” Johnson said, noting one GOP member has filed legislation aimed at doing that. “We’re looking forward to processing all of this as soon as we gather everybody back up.” 

The Speaker added that the shutdown would need to end by Monday in order to process the paychecks by Oct. 15.

One problem for Johnson, though, is that the House is not slated to return until Monday at the earliest, and he has indicated that he will keep the chamber out of session until the shutdown is over.

Democrats indicated they are also worried about those impacts, but say Johnson has bigger fish to fry. 

“I’m concerned about all the impacts of a shutdown. … There’s a lot of impacts of a shutdown,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “How on earth does Mike Johnson say anything with a straight face right now when he won’t even bring his members here to vote on anything? How does he know what he can deliver if his members aren’t even here?” 

“It’s not worth listening to anything the Speaker says until he tells his people to get back and show up for work.”

Health care factors

Democrats have made health care the lynchpin of their opposition to the Republicans’ short-term spending bill, demanding a permanent extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.

Citing that expiration date, GOP leaders have refused to negotiate on the issue as part of the current debate, saying there’s time to have that discussion after the government opens up.

“That’s a Dec. 31 issue,” Johnson told reporters Tuesday.

But there are several related factors that will surface long before Jan. 1, and they could put pressure on GOP leaders to reconsider their position in the coming weeks.

For one thing, private insurance companies that sponsor plans on the ObamaCare marketplace are already sending out rate notices to inform patients of next year’s costs. Those rates are crunched based on current law — not predictions about what Congress might do later — meaning they’re being calculated under the assumption that the enhanced subsidies, which were established during the COVID-19 pandemic, will expire Jan. 1.

That distinction is enormous: If Congress doesn’t act, the average out-of-pocket premium for patients enrolled in ObamaCare marketplace plans would jump by 75 percent, according to KFF. Those are the figures patients are already getting in the mail. And faced with drastically higher rates, many are likely to buy lesser coverage next year — or no coverage at all.

Adding to the time squeeze, the ACA’s open enrollment period begins Nov. 1, meaning patients will begin making their decisions long before GOP leaders say they’re ready to act.

“Insurers aren’t waiting around to set rates for next year,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned this week. “They’re doing it right now — not three months from now.”

How The Shutdown Impacts Healthcare

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS), Govt Shutdown, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, High Premiums, Medicaid, Medical Debt, Medicare, State of the Union, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/innovationrx/2025/10/08/how-the-shutdown-impacts-healthcare/

Hospitals and health systems across the country are telling some Medicare and Medicaid patients that they can’t schedule telehealth appointments due to the federal government’s shutdown, now heading into its second week. That’s because Medicare reimbursement for telehealth expired on September 30, leaving health systems with the choice of pausing such visits or keeping them going in hopes of retroactive reimbursement after the shutdown ends.

Reimbursement for the Hospital at Home program, which allows patients to receive care without being admitted to a hospital, also lapsed with the shutdown. That led to providers scrambling to discharge patients under the program or admit them to a hospital. Mayo Clinic, for example, had to move around 30 patients from their homes in Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin to its facilities.

At issue in the government shutdown is healthcare, specifically tax credits for middle- and lower-income Americans that enable them to afford health insurance on the federal exchanges set up by the Affordable Care Act. Democrats want to extend those tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, while Republicans want to reopen the government first and then negotiate about the tax credits in a final budget.

The impasse has prevented the Senate from overcoming a filibuster, despite a Republican majority. Around 24 million Americans get their health insurance through the ACA, and the loss of tax credits will cause their premiums to rise an average of 75%–and as high as 90% in rural areas–and likely cause at least 4 million people to lose coverage entirely.

The government’s closure has reverberated through its operations in healthcare. The Department of Health and Human Services has furloughed some 41% of its staff, making it harder to run oversight operations. CDC’s lack of staff will hinder surveillance of public health threats. And FDA won’t accept any new drug applications until funding is restored.

When the government might reopen remains unclear. Most shutdowns are relatively brief, but the longest one, which lasted 35 days, came during Donald Trump’s first term. Senate majority leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., have both said they won’t negotiate with Democrats, and the House won’t meet again until October 14. Bettors on Polymarket currently expect it to last until at least October 15. Pressure on Congress will increase after that date because there won’t be funds available to pay active military members.

Is Health Insurer Criticism Justified?

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, ACA Premiums, Access & Quality of Healthcare, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Insurance Denial, Health Insurance Industry, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicare Advantage, Profit, Profit Margin, Profit Model, Profit Motive, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
Is Health Insurer Criticism Justified?

Since the murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson in New York City December 4, 2024, attention to health insurers has heightened. National media coverage has been brutal. Polls have chronicled the public’s disdain for rising premiums and increased denials. Hospitals and physicians have amped-up campaigns against prior authorization and inadequate reimbursement. For many health insurers, no news is a good news day. Here’s ChatGPT’s reply to how insurers are depicted:

“Media coverage of US health insurers focuses heavily on the challenges consumers face due to high costs, coverage denials, and complicated policies, often portraying insurers as profit-driven entities that hinder care access. Investigations reveal insurers using technology to deny claims and push for denials during prior authorization, while other reports highlight market concentration and the increasing influence of large companies like UnitedHealth Group and Centene. Media also covers the marketing efforts of insurers, particularly for Medicare Advantage plans, and public frustration with the industry. “

In some ways, it’s understandable. Insurance, by definition, is a bet, especially in healthcare. Private policyholders—individuals and employers– bet the premiums they pay pooled with others will cover the cost of a condition or accident that requires medical care. In the 1960’s, federal and state government made the same bet on behalf of seniors (Medicare) and lower-income or disabled kids and adults (Medicaid). But they’re bets.

But the rub is this: what healthcare products and services costs and their prices are hard to predict and closely-guarded secrets in an industry that declares itself the world’s best. Claims data—one source of tracking utilization—is nearly impossible to access even for employers who cover the majority of U.S. population (56%).

Spending for U.S. healthcare is forecast to increase 54% through 2033 from $5.6 trillion to $8.6 trillion— the result of higher costs for prescription drugs and hospital stays, medical inflation, technology, increased utilization (demand) and administrative costs (overhead). Insurers negotiate rates for these, add their margin and pass them thru to their customers—individuals, employers and government agencies. It’s all done behind the scenes.

The public’s working knowledge of how the health system operates, how it performs and what key players in the ecosystem do is negligible. For most, personal experience with the system is their context. We understand our personal healthiness if so inclined or fortunate to have a continuous primary care relationship. We understand our medications if they solve a problem or don’t. We understand our hospitals if we or a family member use them or occasionally visit, and we understand our insurance when we enroll choosing from affordable options that include the doctors and hospitals we like and when we’re denied services or billed for what insurance doesn’t cover.

Today, corporate names like UnitedHealth Group, Humana, Cigna, Elevance, CVS Aetna and Centene are the health insurance industry’s big brands, corralling more than 60% of the industry’s private and government enrollment with the rest divided among 1,149 smaller players. Today, the public’s perception of health insurers is negative: most consider insurance a necessary evil with data showing it’s no guarantee against financial ruin. Today, it’s an expensive employee benefit for employers who are looking for alternative options for workforce stability. And only 56% of enrollees trust their health insurer to do what’s best for them.

Ours is a flawed system that’s not sustainable: insurers are part of that problem.  It’s premised on dependence: patients depend on providers to define their diagnosis and deliver the treatments/therapeutics and enrollees depend on insurers to handle the logistics of how much they get paid and when. At the point of service, patients pay co-pays and after the fact, get an “explanation of benefits” along with additional out of pocket obligations. Hospitals and physicians fight insurers about what’s reasonable and customary compensation, and patients unable to out-of-pocket obligations are handed off to “revenue cycle specialists” for collection. Wow. Great system! Mark it up, pass it thru and let the chips fall where they may—all under the presumed oversight of state insurance commissioners who are tasked to protect the public’s interests.

Do insurers deserve the animosity they’re facing from employers, hospitals, physicians and their enrollees?  Yes, but certainly some more than others. Facts are facts:

  • Since 2020, health insurance premium costs have increased 2-4 times faster than household necessities and wages for the average household. Affordability is an issue.
  • Denials have increased.
  • Enrollee trust and satisfaction with insurers has plummeted.
  • And industry profits since 2023 have taken a hit due to post-pandemic pent-up demand, pricey drugs including in-demand GLP-1’s for obesity and increased negotiation leverage by consolidated health systems.

Most Americans think not having health insurance is a bigger risk than going without. But most also think healthcare is fundamental right and the government should guarantee access through universal coverage.

Having private insurance is not the issue: having insurance that ensures access to doctors and hospitals when needed reliably and affordably is their unmet need.

In the weeks ahead, employers will update their employee health benefits options for next year while facing 9-15% higher costs for their coverage. States will decide how they’ll implement work requirements in their Medicaid programs and assess the extent of lost coverage for millions. Insurers who sponsor market place plans suspended by the Big Beautiful Bill will raise their individual premiums hikes 20-70% for the 16 million who are losing their subsidies.

Medicare Advantage (Medicare Part C) insurers will skinny-down the supplements in their offerings and raise premiums alongside Part D increases, And, every insurer will inventory markets served and product portfolio profitability to determine investment opportunities or exit strategies. That’s the calculus every insurer applies every year, adjusting as conditions dictate.

Most private insurers pay little attention to the 8% of Americans who have no coverage; those inclined tend to be smaller community-based plans often associated with hospitals or provider organizations.

Most are concerned about continuity of care for their enrollees: they know 12% had a lapse in their coverage last year, 23% are under-insured and 43% missed a scheduled appointment or treatment due to out-of-pocket costs involved.

And all are concerned about the long-term financial viability of the entire health insurance sector: margins have plummeted since 2020 from 3.1% to 0.8%%, medical loss ratio’s have increased from 98.2% in 2023 to 100.1% last year, premiums increase grew 5.9% while hospital and medical expenses grew $8.9% and so on. The bigger players have residual capital to diversify and grow; others don’t.

Criticism of the health insurance industry is justified for the most part but the rest of the story is key. The U.S. system is broken and everyone knows it. But health insurers are not alone in bearing responsibility for its failure though their role is significant.

The urgent need is for a roadmap to a system of health where the healthiness and well-being of the entire population is true north to its ambition. It’s a system that’s comprehensive, connected, cost-effective and affordable. Protecting turf between sectors, blame and shame rhetoric and perpetuation of public ignorance are non-starters.

PS: Two important events last week weigh heavily on U.S. healthcare’s future:

In Verona, WI, the Epic User Group Meeting showcased the company’s plans for AI featuring 3 new generative AI tools — Emmie for patients, Art for clinicians and Penny for revenue cycle management. Per KLAS, the private company grew its market share to 42% of acute care hospitals and 55% of acute care beds at the end of 2024.

In Jackson Hole, WY, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium where Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled a likely interest rate cut in its September 16-17 meeting and changes to how the central bank will assess employment status going forward.

Healthcare is labor intense, capital intense and 26% of federal spending in the FY 2026 proposed budget. The Fed through its monetary policies has the power and obligation to foster economic stability. Epic is one of a handful of companies that has the potential to transform the U.S. health system.  Transformation of the health system is essential to its sustainability and necessary to the U.S. economic stability since healthcare is 18% of the country’s GDP and its biggest private employer.

Medicare Advantage plans pay physicians less than original Medicare

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Reimbursement, Physician Compensation, Physician Fee Schedule • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/medicare-advantage-plans-pay-physicians-less-original-medicare

MA pays 10% to 15% less than what is paid by the government in original Medicare, report says.

A new study confirms what the American Medical Association and other medical groups have long been saying about physician pay: Medicare reimbursement is not keeping up with inflation.

In original Medicare, doctors are paid one-third less than a decade ago, the report said. Medicare reimbursement rates for outpatient procedures have decreased every year since 2016, for an overall decline of 10%.

Over the same period, inflation has risen by almost 30%, according to the report.

The report also sheds light on Medicare Advantage reimbursement. Medicare Advantage plans pay physicians an estimated 10% to 15% less than what is paid by the government in traditional Medicare, according to the 2025 Omniscient Health Physician Medicare Income Report. 

This can create negative margins for physicians considering MA plans take roughly twice as long to reimburse providers compared to original Medicare along with factoring in prior authorization and denials, the report said. 

An estimated 54% of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in a MA plan.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The MA reimbursement gap is driving shifts in network participation. A 2024 survey by the Healthcare Financial Management Association found that 19% of health systems have stopped accepting at least one MA plan, with another 61% planning to do so or actively considering it, according to the Omniscient report.

“Despite the rising demand for care from an aging U.S. population, the financial strain is forcing physicians to rethink whether they will continue serving Medicare patients,” said Meade Monger, CEO of Omniscient Health, a healthcare data science company. “High-volume Medicare practices, especially those in primary care and rural areas, are increasingly unable to sustain operations under current revenue structures.”

The federal government’s push toward streamlining and speeding up the prior authorization process and requiring an electronic process over paper represents improvement, the report said. Some insurers have announced plans to decrease the number of procedures that require prior auth.

But payment rates need to change, said Omniscient, which recommends policymakers index Medicare reimbursement rates to inflation and set payment standards for MA plans. 

THE LARGER TREND

On Tuesday, the American Medical Association released what it called flawed proposals in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ physician payment rule released in July.

Despite getting a 3.6% payment boost after five consecutive years of cuts, physician pay, after adjusting for practice-cost inflation, has plummeted since 2001, the AMA said.

The proposed 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule includes a 2.5% cut in work relative-value units (RVUs, which measure a physician’s time, technical skill, mental effort, decision-making and stress) and physician intraservice time for most services, the AMA said. This reduction would affect 95% of the services that doctors provide. 

The cut is based on an assumption of greater efficiency and less time involved for each service, an assumption that is not grounded in new data or physician input, the AMA said. 

CMS also proposes a reduction in practice-expense RVUs, which are the costs of running a practice, such as staff, equipment, supplies, utilities and overhead.

The bottom line, the AMA said, is that physician payment for services performed in a facility will drop overall by 7%.

CMS is accepting comments on its proposed rule until Sept. 12.

The ACA Subsidy Expiration Will Hit Millions Hard

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, ACA Premiums, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/the-aca-subsidy-expiration-will-hit?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=255152&post_id=170756440&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59t65&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

When Congress passed pandemic-era enhancements to Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies in 2021, it wasn’t just a policy tweak — it was a lifeline. But unless lawmakers act, those subsidies will vanish on January 1, 2026.

According to KFF, the average ACA enrollee could see premiums spike 75% overnight. For many, that will mean a choice between things like their health coverage and rent or food. The Congressional Budget Office estimates more than 4.2 million people could lose coverage over the next decade as a result. Below is where the expired subsidies will hurt the hardest:

1. Young adults… and their parents’ wallets

Young people who’ve aged out of their parents’ plans and buy coverage through the ACA marketplaces will see some of the steepest jumps. 

If they decide to forgo coverage, as KFF Health News warns: The so-called “‘insurance cliff’ at age 26 can send young adults tumbling into being uninsured.” 

The parents and families of these young adults could be left scrambling to cover unexpected medical bills — the kind that can derail a family’s finances for years.

2. Main street entrepreneurs

The ACA is the only real option for many small-business owners, freelancers and gig workers. These are the folks that conservatives say we should encourage to build and grow their own businesses who make up the backbone of Main Street. Losing the enhanced subsidies means many will face premiums hundreds of dollars higher per month. Some will be forced to close shop and turn to jobs at out-of-town corporations flush enough to afford to offer subsidized coverage to their workers, a direct hit to local economies.

3. States already in crisis

States aren’t in a position to plug the gap. Politico reports that California, Colorado, Maryland, Washington, and others are scrambling to soften the blow, but even the most ambitious state-level plans can’t replace hundreds of millions in lost federal funding.

And this comes right after Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will hit hospitals, clinics and low-income communities. In Washington state alone, officials expect premiums to jump 75% when the subsidies expire, with one in four marketplace enrollees dropping coverage. That means more uninsured patients showing up in ERs, less preventive care, and more strain on already struggling rural hospitals.

4. (Already) disappearing alternatives to Big Insurance

The ACA marketplaces aren’t just a safety net for individuals but also home to smaller non-profit and regional health plans that give Americans an alternative to the “Big 7” Wall Street-run insurance conglomerates. These community-rooted plans are already facing financial headwinds from shrinking enrollment and Medicaid funding cuts. When premiums spike in 2026, many could lose enough members to be forced out of the market entirely.

And here’s the real danger: The Big 7 can weather this storm. Their huge market capitalizations, government contracts, pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) divisions and sprawling care delivery businesses give them insulation from ACA marketplace losses. In fact, they may see this as an opportunity to buy up the smaller competitors that fail, which would further consolidate their dominance over our health care system. Or they could just decide to flee the ACA marketplace entirely because the population will skewer sicker and older, creating a death spiral that the big insurers will not want to touch. What little consumer choice exists outside the big corporate insurers could vanish, and even that could disappear.

5. <65 year olds

Perhaps the most vulnerable group will be Americans in their 50s and early 60s who lose their jobs or retire early (often not by choice) and find themselves too young for Medicare but facing incredibly high premiums on the individual market. Under ACA rules, insurers can charge older enrollees up to three times more than younger adults for the same coverage. The enhanced subsidies have been the only thing keeping many of these premiums within reach.

Take those subsidies away, and a 60-year-old who loses employer coverage could see their monthly premium shoot into four figures. For those living off severance, savings or reduced income, choosing to gamble with their health and wait it out until 65 may be the only option.

Congress knows the stakes. Will they act?

Making the subsidies permanent would cost $383 billion over 10 years, which would be a political hurdle for a Congress intent on deep budget cuts. But the cost of inaction is far higher, both in human and economic terms. These subsidies have kept coverage affordable for millions, fueled small business growth, and stabilized state health systems during one of the most turbulent economic periods in recent memory. Without them, the hit to many folks could be a Frazier-level K.O.

But let’s face it — what I’m advocating for isn’t perfect either. The prospect of extending these subsidies raises a question: Should taxpayers be footing the bill for health insurance premiums when insurance corporations are reporting tens of billions in annual profits and paying hefty dividends to shareholders?

The short answer, for now, unfortunately, is yes. Because this is the deck we’ve been dealt and we can’t let Americans fall into medical debt, lose their homes – or their lives. Extending the ACA subsidies is not pretty. But for Americans, it’s just a bob and weave.

ACA premiums set to spike 

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, ACA Premiums, Deferred Healthcare, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, High Premiums, High Prices, Medicaid, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://nxslink.thehill.com/view/6230d94bc22ca34bdd8447c8ofavw.mnb/3a085f61

People who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are set to see a median premium increase of 18 percent, more than double last year’s 7 percent median proposed increase, according to an analysis of preliminary filings by KFF. 

The proposed rates are preliminary and could change before being finalized in late summer. The analysis includes proposed rate changes from 312 insurers in all 50 states and DC. 

It’s the largest rate change insurers have requested since 2018, the last time that policy uncertainty contributed to sharp premium increases. On average, ACA marketplace insurers are raising premiums by about 20 percent in 2026, KFF found. 

Insurers said they wanted higher premiums to cover rising health care costs, like hospitalizations and physician care, as well as prescription drug costs. Tariffs on imported goods could play a role in rising medical costs, but insurers said there was a lot of uncertainty around implementation, and not many insurers were citing tariffs as a reason for higher rates. 

But they are adding in higher increases due to changes being made by the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress. For instance, the majority of insurers said they are taking into account the potential expiration of enhanced premium tax credits. 

Those subsidies, put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic, are set to expire at the end of the year, and there are few signs that Republicans are interested in tackling the issue at all.    

If Congress takes no action, premiums for subsidized enrollees are projected to increase by over 75 percent starting in January 2026, according to KFF. 

But some states are pushing back.  

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) on Wednesday called on the state’s insurance commissioner to disapprove the proposed increases from Centene and Blue Cross Blue Shield. The companies filed increases of up to 54 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively, she said.  

“Arkansas’ Insurance Commissioner is required to disapprove of proposed rate increases if they are excessive or discriminatory, and these are both,” Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.

“I’m calling on my Commissioner to follow the law, reject these insane rate increases, and protect Arkansans.”  

As Americans Struggled, Health Insurers Made a Record-Breaking $71.3 Billion in Profits

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Insurance Industry, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, High Premiums, High Prices, Monopoly, Monopoly Behavior, Profit, Profit Margin, Profit Model, Profit Motive • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/as-americans-struggled-health-insurers?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=255152&post_id=170288533&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59t65&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Ahead of my Congressional testimony last week before the Senate HELP committee, I compiled data on the profits, revenues and CEO compensations of big health insurers in 2024. The curiosity from senators on both sides of the aisle signaled, to me, that lawmakers are as interested as I’ve ever seen in the industry’s rampant profiteering.

What I found was that the seven biggest publicly traded health insurance companies collectively made $71.3 billion in profits, up more than half a billion dollars from 2023. All while millions of Americans continued to skip their medications, rationed insulin and delayed care due to insurers’ out-of-pocket demands.

Let’s break it down.

You won’t be surprised to learn that shareholders are not the only ones benefiting from the care-restricting barriers insurers have erected to boost profits. The CEOs of those seven companies took home a combined $146.1 million in 2024 compensation. That’s enough to cover annual premiums for thousands of American families.

Here’s what the top brass made:

Meanwhile, patients across the country report increasing out-of-pocket costs, more aggressive prior authorizations and narrower provider networks. But for these executives, the real measure of success is how high they can push their stock prices and not how many people can afford to see a doctor.

So, What’s Driving the Revenue Surge?

One word: Gouging.

Insurers continued to jack up premiums for their commercial customers and overcharge the government. Despite watchdog warnings, Uncle Sam continues to pour money into private Medicare Advantage plans even as audits and investigations uncover widespread fraud and upcoding. And Medicaid managed care is a gold mine, too. These insurers now dominate state Medicaid contracts and can quietly extract billions through behind-the-scenes ownership of pharmacies, PBMs and providers.

It’s not just health insurance anymore — it’s a monopolized empire.

All that said, to the dismay of shareholders, the big seven insurers have had to admit that so far in 2025, they’ve paid more medical claims than they had expected, which means their profits were down somewhat during the first months of the year. I’ll shed more light on that in a future post. No need for you to shed any tears for them, though, because we’re still talking billions and billions in profits.

So if you’re wondering why your premiums, deductibles and costs at the pharmacy counter keep going up — just look at those 2024 numbers. We all paid more for health insurance and got less for the hard-earned money we had to shovel out for our “coverage.” 

And expect even more financial pain (and difficulty getting the care you need) as these companies do all they can to get their profit margins back to where Wall Street wants them.

Talk Is Cheap: Now Trump Must Deliver On His Healthcare Promises

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence Generative, Artificial Intelligence Investment Funding, Food Health, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, High Drug Prices, Medicare Drug Price Negotiation, Obesity, Obesity Treatment, Opioid Epidemic, Outcomes, Pharmaceutical Industry, Quality, Quality Measures, Quality of Care, Quality of Life • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2025/06/09/talk-is-cheap-now-trump-must-deliver-on-his-healthcare-promises/

President Donald Trump has made big promises about fixing American healthcare. Now comes the moment that separates talk from action.

With the 2026 midterms fast approaching and congressional attention soon shifting to electoral strategy, the window for legislative results is closing quickly. This summer will determine whether the administration turns promises into policy or lets the opportunity slip away.

Trump and his handpicked healthcare leaders — HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary — have identified three major priorities: lowering drug prices, reversing chronic disease and unleashing generative AI. Each one, if achieved, would save tens of thousands of lives and reduce costs.

But promises are easy. Real change requires political will and congressional action. Here are three tests that Americans can use to gauge whether the Trump administration succeeds or fails in delivering on its healthcare agenda.

Test No. 1: Have Drug Prices Come Down?

Americans pay two to four times more for prescription drugs than citizens in other wealthy nations. This price gap has persisted for more than 20 years and continues to widen as pharmaceutical companies launch new medications with average list prices exceeding $370,000 per year.

One key reason for the disparity is a 2003 law that prohibits Medicare from negotiating prices directly with drug manufacturers. Although the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 granted limited negotiation rights, the initial round of price reductions did little to close the gap with other high-income nations.

President Trump has repeatedly promised to change that. In his first term, and again in May 2025, he condemned foreign “free riders,” promising, “The United States will no longer subsidize the healthcare of foreign countries and will no longer tolerate profiteering and price gouging.”

To support these commitments, the president signed an executive order titled “Delivering Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients.” The order directs HHS to develop and communicate MFN price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers, with the hope that they will voluntarily align U.S. drug prices with those in other developed nations. Should manufacturers fail to make significant progress toward these targets, the administration said it plans to pursue additional measures, such as facilitating drug importation and imposing tariffs. However, implementing these measures will most likely require congressional legislation and will encounter substantial legal and political challenges.

The pharmaceutical industry knows that without congressional action, there is no way for the president to force them to lower prices. And they are likely to continue to appeal to Americans by arguing that lower prices will restrict innovation and lifesaving drug development.

But the truth about drug “innovation” is in the numbers: According to a study by America’s Health Insurance Plans, seven out of 10 of the largest pharmaceutical companies spend more on sales and marketing than on research and development. And if drugmakers want to invest more in R&D, they can start by requiring peer nations to pay their fair share — rather than depending so heavily on U.S. patients to foot the bill.

If Congress fails to act, the president has other tools at his disposal. One effective step would be for the FDA to redefine “drug shortages” to include medications priced beyond the reach of most Americans. That change would enable compounding pharmacies to produce lower-cost alternatives just as they did recently with GLP-1 weight-loss injections.

If no action is taken, however, and Americans continue paying more than twice as much as citizens in other wealthy nations, the administration will fail this crucial test.

Test No. 2: Did Food Health, Quality Improve?

Obesity has become a leading health threat in the United States, surpassing smoking and opioid addiction as a cause of death.

Since 1980, adult obesity rates have surged from 15% to over 40%, contributing significantly to chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease and multiple types of cancers.

A major driver of this epidemic is the widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods: products high in added sugar, unhealthy fats and artificial additives. These foods are engineered to be hyper-palatable and calorie-dense, promoting overconsumption and, in some cases, addictive eating behaviors.

RFK Jr. has publicly condemned artificial additives as “poison” and spotlighted their impact on children’s health. In May 2025, he led the release of the White House’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, which identifies ultra-processed foods, chemical exposures, lack of exercise and excessive prescription drug use as primary contributors to America’s chronic disease epidemic.

But while the report raises valid concerns, it has yet to produce concrete reforms.

To move from rhetoric to results, the administration will need to implement tangible policies.

Here are three approaches (from least difficult to most) that, if enacted, would signify meaningful progress:

  • Front-of-package labeling. Implement clear and aggressive labeling to inform consumers about the nutritional content of food products, using symbols to indicate healthy versus unhealthy options.
  • Taxation and subsidization. Impose taxes on unhealthy food items and use the revenue to subsidize healthier food options, especially for socio-economically disadvantaged populations.
  • Regulation of food composition. Restrict the use of harmful additives and limit the total amount of fat and sugar included, particularly for foods aimed at kids.

These measures will doubtlessly face fierce opposition from the food and agriculture industries. But if the Trump administration and Congress manage to enact even one of these options — or an equivalent reform — they can claim success.

If, instead, they preserve the status quo, leaving Americans to decipher nutritional fine print on the back of the box, obesity will continue to rise, and the administration will have failed.

Test No. 3: Are Patients Using Generative AI To Improve Health?

The Trump administration has signaled a strong commitment to using generative AI across various industries, including healthcare. At the AI Action Summit in Paris, Vice President JD Vance made the administration’s agenda clear: “I’m not here this morning to talk about AI safety … I’m here to talk about AI opportunity.”

FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary has echoed that message with internal action. After an AI-assisted scientific review pilot program, he announced plans to integrate generative AI across all FDA centers by June 30.

But internal efficiency alone won’t improve the nation’s health. The real test is whether the administration will help develop and approve GenAI tools that expand clinical access, improve outcomes and reduce costs.

To these ends, generative AI holds enormous promise:

  • Managing chronic disease: By analyzing real-time data from wearables, GenAI can empower patients to better control their blood pressure, blood sugar and heart failure. Instead of waiting months between doctor visits for a checkup, patients could receive personalized analyzes of their data, recommendations for medication adjustments and warnings about potential risk in real time.
  • Improving diagnoses: AI can identify clinical patterns missed by humans, reducing the 400,000 deaths each year caused by misdiagnoses.
  • Personalizing treatment: Using patient history and genetics, GenAI can help physicians tailor care to individual needs, improving outcomes and reducing side effects.

These breakthroughs aren’t theoretical. They’re achievable. But they won’t happen unless federal leaders facilitate broad adoption.

That will require investing in innovation. The NIH must provide funding for next-generation GenAI tools designed for patient empowerment, and the FDA will need to facilitate approval for broad implementation. That will require modernizing current regulations. The FDA’s approval process wasn’t built for probabilistic AI models that rely on continuous application training and include patient-provided prompts. Americans need a new, fit-for-purpose framework that protects patients without paralyzing progress.

Most important, federal leaders must abandon the illusion of zero risk. If American healthcare were delivering superior clinical outcomes, managing chronic disease effectively and keeping patients safe, that would be one thing. But medical care in the United States is far from that reality. Hundreds of thousands of Americans die annually from poorly controlled chronic diseases, medical errors and misdiagnoses.

If generative AI technology remains confined to billing support and back-office automation, the opportunity to transform American healthcare will be lost. And the administration will have failed to deliver on this promise.

When I teach strategy at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, I tell students that the best leaders focus on a few high-priority goals with clear definitions of success — and a refusal to accept failure. Based on the administration’s own words, grading the administration on these three healthcare tests will fulfill those criteria.

However, with Labor Day just months away, the window for action will soon close. The time for presidential action is now.

July 2025 Actions are the Turning Point for U.S. Healthcare

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Funding, Medicare Cuts, State of the Union, Turning Point • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
July 2025 Actions are the Turning Point for U.S. Healthcare

July 2025 will be the month U.S. healthcare leaders recognize as the industry’s modern turning point. Consider…

  • On July 4, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law setting in motion $960 billion in Medicaid cuts over the decade and massive uncertainty among those most adversely impacted—low income and under-served populations dependent on public programs, 8 to 11 million who used now-suspended marketplace subsidies to buy insurance coverage, and hundreds of state and local health agencies left in funding limbo.
  • On July 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the June Consumer Price Index rose .3% bumping the LTM to 2.7% (lower than LTM of 3.4% for medical services). Prices have edged up.
  • On July 31, President Trump issued an Executive Order to 17 drug companies ordering them to reduce prices on their drugs by September 29 or else. And CMS issued final rules for FY2026 Medicare payments to hospitals, rehab and other providers reflecting increases ranging from 2.5-3.3% effective October 1.
  • And on the same day, the Bureau of Labor issued its July 2025 jobs report that showed a disappointing net gain of 73,000 jobs plus downward revisions for May and June of 258,000 sparking Wall Street anxiety and President Trump to call the results “rigged” before firing BLS head Erika McEntarfer. Note: healthcare added 55,000 in July—the biggest of any sector and more than its 42,000 average monthly increase.

Collectively, these actions reflect rejection of the health industry by the GOP-led Congress.

It follows 15 years of support vis a vis the Affordable Care Act (2010) and pandemic recovery emergency funding (2020-2021). In that 15-year period, the bigger players got bigger in each sector, investment of private equity in each sector became more prevalent, costs increased, affordability for consumers and employers decreased, and the public’s overall satisfaction with the health system declined precipitously.

For the four major players in the system, the passage of the “big, beautiful bill” was a disappointment. Their primary concerns were not addressed:

  • Physicians wanted relief from annual payment cuts by Medicare preferring reimbursement tied directly to medical inflation. And insurer’ prior authorization and provider reimbursement was a top issue. Status: Not much has changed though adjustments are promised.
  • Hospitals wanted continuation of federal Medicaid funding, protection of the 340B drug purchasing program, rejection of site-neutral payment policies, higher Medicare reimbursement and relief from insurer prior authorization frustrations. Status: Medicaid funding is being cut forcing the issue for states. CMS payment increases for 2026 are lower than operating cost increases. Insurers have promised prior-auth relief but details about how and when are unknown. And Congress posture toward hospitals seems harsh: price transparency compliance, safety event reporting, and cost concerns are bipartisan issues.
  • Insurers wanted sustained funding for state Medicaid and Medicare Advantage programs and federal pushback against drug prices and hospital consolidation. Status: Congress appears sympathetic to enrollee complaints and anxious to address insurer “waste, fraud and abuse” including overpayments in Medicare Advantage.
  • Drug companies oppose “Most Favored Nation” pricing and want protections of their patents and limits on how much insurers, pharmacy benefits managers, wholesalers, online distributors and other “middlemen” earn at their expense. Status: to date, little action despite sympathetic rhetoric by lawmakers. Status: to date, Congress has taken nominal action beyond the Inflation Reduction Act (2022) though 23 states have passed legislation requiring PBMs, insurers and manufacturers to disclose drug prices and 12 states have established Prescription Drug Affordability Boards to monitor prices.

My take:

The landscape for U.S. healthcare is fundamentally changed as a result of the July actions noted above. It is compounded by public anxiety about the economy at home and global tensions abroad.

These July actions were a turning point for the industry: responding appropriately will require fresh ideas and statesmanship. Transparency about prices, costs, incentives and performance is table stakes. Leaders dedicated to the greater good will be the difference.

Expect More Hunger in America with Big New Rips to the Safety Net

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Policy, Healthcare Cuts, Healthcare Reform, Hunger, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Eligibility, Medicaid Funding, Medicaid Work Requirements, Public Good, Public Health, Public Interest, Public Welfare, Safety Net, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/expect-more-hunger-in-america-with

The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes deep cuts to the Medicaid program, also puts the food assistance that 41 million low-income Americans rely on in jeopardy. Many of the families currently getting food provided by  the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) stand to lose that support.  

SNAP may well disappear for some families as the federal government moves to trim it. “The cuts are massive and extremely cruel when families need more support, not less,” says Signe Anderson, senior director of nutrition advocacy, at the Tennessee Justice Center in Nashville. 

Government food assistance was established during the Great Depression, but it wasn’t until 1977 that the program became more accessible when the requirement that recipients had to pay for a portion of their food stamps was ended. Throughout its history, foes of the program have tried to dismantle it and may have succeeded as a result of provisions in the bill President Trump signed on July 4. 

The new legislation calls for cutting spending for food stamps by $186 billion through 2034. “Everyone on food stamps will be affected in some way, and many will lose benefits,” Anderson says. “I don’t think the Congress understands the level of necessity in the community for food, health care and mental health treatment, some for the rest of their lives.” 

One major change is being made to work requirements that have historically been part of the Medicaid program, which is administered and partially funded by the states. Anderson points out that under the new arrangements, participants may find the task of enrolling and staying enrolled more onerous. “We see a lot of people cut off already because too many life circumstances make it difficult for them to meet work requirements.”  

Indeed when you look at the changes to SNAP, the first word that might come to mind is ‘draconian.’

To receive benefits those new to the program, and those already on it who are between 55 and 64 and do not have dependent children or who have children 14 and older, will have to prove they work. Or they will have to volunteer at least 20 hours a week or enroll in training programs. Parents of school-aged children will now be required to work.

Some five million people, including about 800,000 children and about a half million adults who are 65 and older, could lose their food benefits.  

The programs the new law targets have been a lifeline for some. Nikole Ralls, a 43-year-old woman in Nashville, who was once a drug addict but now counsels others who need help, says, “I got my life turned around because of Medicaid and SNAP.”  

In a recent memo to state agencies administering the SNAP program, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she was concerned about what was described as abuse of the waiver system by states, noting that the new approach for the SNAP program would prioritize work, education and volunteering over what the department characterized as “idleness and excessive spending.” 

Anderson said, “The public doesn’t understand what hunger looks like and are misinformed about how well-run and streamlined the SNAP program is.”   

“Most of the people who can, do work.  We have parents working two and three jobs,” Anderson said. For families in this predicament food banks, which have become default grocery stores, may be of little help.  They, too, are stretched thin. The Wall Street Journal reported food banks across the country are already straining under rising demand, and some worry there won’t be enough food to meet demand.