Credit and Capital Markets Outlook for 2024

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For many providers, 2023 provided a return to profitability (albeit at modest levels) following the devastating operating and investment losses experienced in 2022. Kaufman Hall’s National Hospital Flash Report data illustrated generally improving operating margins throughout the year, leveling off at 2.0% in November on a year-to-date basis.

This level of performance is commendable given 2022 and early 2023 margins, although it is still well below the 3% to 4% range which we believe is needed for long-term sustainability in the not-for-profit healthcare world. We may well have reached a point of stability with respect to operating performance, but at a lower level.

The question for hospital and health system leaders is whether this level of operating stability provides sustainability?

From stabilization to normalization

Since the pandemic began in 2020, the progress of recovery has been viewed over three phases: crisis, stabilization, and normalization. In last year’s outlook, we noted that we were in the midst of a potentially multi-year stabilization phase, which would continue to be marked with volatility—including ongoing labor market dislocations, inflationary pressures, and restrictive monetary policies. As we enter 2024, there are signs that we are now at the bridge between stabilization and normalization (Figure 1).

Figure 1: The Three Phases of Recovery from the Covid Pandemic

“The question for hospital and health system leaders is whether that level of stability provides sustainability?”

These signs include evidence that the first two indicators for normalization—a recalibrated or stabilized workforce environment and a return from an erratic interest rate environment—are coming into place. In our 2023 State of Healthcare Performance Improvement survey, respondents indicated that the spike in contract labor utilization that has been a dominant factor in operating expense increases was subsiding. Sixty percent of respondents said that utilization of contract labor was decreasing, and 36% said it was holding steady. Only 4% noted an increase in contract labor usage. Overall employee cost inflation seems to be subsiding as well: for all three labor categories in our survey (clinical, administrative, and support services), more organizations were able to hold salary increases to the 0% – 5% range in 2023 than in 2022.

There is good news on the interest rate front as well. After a series of rate increases in 2023, the Federal Reserve has held steady the last six months and has signaled rate cuts in 2024. Inflation has cooled markedly (albeit not yet at target levels), and employment rates have held steady. The Fed may have achieved a “soft landing” that satisfies its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. Borrowing costs for not-for-profit hospital issuers have declined nearly 100 basis points in the last two months and we are expecting a return to more normal issuance levels in the first half of 2024.

There are other indications of normalization, including in the rating agencies’ outlooks for 2024. Regardless of the headline, all saw significant improvement in healthcare performance 2023.

The final answer to the question of whether the healthcare industry is entering the normalization phase likely will hinge on the last two indicators. Will we see a return of normalized strategic capital investments, and will we see a revival of strategic initiatives driving the core business (perhaps newly imagined)?

In effect, are health care systems simply surviving or are they thriving?

Looking forward, several factors could either bolster or undermine healthcare leaders’ confidence and willingness to resume a more normal level of investment in both capital needs and strategic growth. These include:

  • Politics and the 2024 elections. When North Carolina—a state that has traditionally leaned “red”—decided to opt into the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) Medicaid expansion in 2023, it seemed that political debates over the ACA might be in the rearview mirror. But last November, former president Trump—currently the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination after strong wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary—indicated his intent to replace the ACA with something else. President Biden is now making protection and expansion of the ACA a key part of his 2024 campaign. What had appeared to be a settled issue may be a significant point of contention in the 2024 presidential election and beyond.

Although we do not anticipate any significant healthcare-related legislation in advance of the 2024 elections, healthcare leaders should be prepared for renewed attention to the costs of government-funded healthcare programs leading up to and following the elections. The national debt has increased rapidly over the past 20 years, tripling from $11 trillion in 2003 to $33 trillion in 2023. If the deficit and national debt become an important issue in the election, a move toward a balanced budget—akin to the Balanced Budget Act of 1997—post election could lead to further cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

  • Temporary relief payments. Health systems continue to receive one-time cash infusions through the 340B settlement, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) payments and other governmental programs. Approximately 1,600 hospitals have or will be receiving a lump-sum payment to compensate them for a change in the Department of Health & Human Services’ (HHS’s) reimbursement rates for the 340B program from 2018 to 2022, which was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court in a 2022 decision. The total amount to be distributed is approximately $9 billion and began hitting bank accounts in January 2024.

But what the right hand giveth, the left hand taketh away. Budget neutrality requirements will force HHS to recoup this offset—amounting to approximately $7.8 billion—which it will do by reducing payments for non-drug items and services to all Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) providers by 0.5% until the offset has been fully recouped, beginning in calendar year 2026. HHS estimates that this process will take approximately 16 years. Is this a harbinger of lower payments on other key governmental programs?

Many hospitals also continue to receive Covid-related payments from FEMA for expenses occurred during the pandemic. In addition, state supplemental payments—especially under Medicaid managed care and fee-for-service programs—are providing some relief. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has issued a proposed rule, however, that would limit states’ use of provider-based funding sources, such as provider taxes, and cap the rate of growth for state-directed payments. 

As all of these payment programs dry up over the next few years, hospitals will need to replace the revenue and/or get leaner on the expense side in order to maintain today’s level of performance.

  • The hollowing of the commercial health insurance market. Our colleague, Joyjit Saha Choudhury, recently published a blog on the hollowing of the commercial health insurance market, driven by long-term concerns over the affordability of healthcare. While volumes have been recovering to pre-pandemic levels, this hollowing threatens the loss of the most profitable volumes and will pressure hospitals and health systems to create and deliver value, compete for inclusion in narrow networks, and develop more direct relationships with the employer community.

Related, the growing penetration of Medicare Advantage plans is reducing the number of traditional Medicare beneficiaries. Many CFOs report that these programs can be the most difficult with which to work given their high denial rates and required pre-authorization rates. A new rule requiring insurers to streamline prior authorizations for Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and Affordable Care Act plans may help alleviate this issue; however, it will be incumbent upon management teams to stay ahead of them. Aging demographics are also reducing the percentage of commercially insured patients for many hospitals and health systems, further exacerbating the problem. This combination of fewer commercial patients (who often subsidize governmental patients) and more pressure on receiving the duly owed commercial revenue threatens to be an ongoing headache for management teams.

  • Ongoing impact of the Baby Boom generation. Despite the good news on inflation—and indications that the Fed may begin lowering interest rates in 2024—the economy is by no means out of the woods yet. The Baby Boom generation, which holds more than 50% of the wealth in the U.S. and is seemingly price agnostic, still has many years of spending ahead, in healthcare and general purchasing. This will likely continue to pressure inflation, especially in the healthcare sector, where demand will continue to grow. As the generation starts to shrink, the resulting wealth transfer will be the largest ever in our country’s history and have profound (and unforeseen) consequences on the overall economy and healthcare in general.

In sum, these other factors will continue to affect the sector (both positively and negatively) and require health system management teams to navigate an everchanging world. While many signs point toward short-term relief, the longer-term challenges persist. Improvements in the short term may, however, provide the opportunity to reposition organizations for the future.

How hospitals and health systems should respond

Healthcare leaders should view ongoing uncertainty in the political and economic climate as a tailwind as much as a headwind. This uncertainty, in other words, should be a motivation to put in place strategies that will buffer healthcare organizations from potential bumps in the road ahead. Setting balance sheet strategy should be a part of an organization’s planning process.

How an organization sets that strategy, measures its performance, and makes improvements will set apart top-performing organizations. 

Although heightened debt issuance early in 2024 signals a return for many systems to a climate of investment, there is still limited energy around strategy and debt conversations in many boardrooms, especially in those organizations where financial improvement continues to lag. The last two years have illustrated that hospitals and health systems will not be able to cut their way to profitability. Lackluster performance cannot and will not improve without some level of strategic change, whether it is through market share gains, payer mix shift, or operational improvements. This strategic change requires investment and investment requires capital. Capital can be obtained in many forms—whether through growth in capital reserves, improved cash flow, or new debt issuance—but is essential for change. Reengaging in conversations about strategy and growth should be an imperative in 2024 and will require reexamining how that growth is funded.

Healthcare leaders should engage their partners as they continue or refocus on:

  • Changing the conversation from debt capacity to capital capacity. Management teams need to determine what they can afford to spend on capital if the new normal of cash flow will be constrained going forward. Capital capacity is and should be agnostic to the source of that capital, such as debt, cash flow from operations, or liquidity reserves. Healthcare leaders must focus on what they can spend, before deciding how to fund that spending. The conversation will need to balance investment for the future with maintaining key credit metrics in the short term.
  • Conducting a capitalization analysis. Separate but related to the previous entry, how much leverage should your organization have relative to its overall capitalization? Ostensibly, many organizations have been paying principal while curtailing borrowing needs, so capitalization may have improved. While that may be the case, many organizations have depleted reserves and/or experienced investment losses that have reduced capitalization. Understanding where the organization stands is an essential next step.
  • Evaluating surplus return. Consider surplus return as investment income net of interest expense. Organizations should evaluate their ability to reliably generate both operating cash flow and net surplus. How an organization’s balance sheet is positioned to generate returns and manage risk will be a critical success factor.   
  • Focusing on the metrics that matter. These include operating cashflow margin, cash to debt, debt to revenue, and days cash on hand. As key metrics for rating analysts and investors continue to evolve, management teams need to make sure they are focused on the correct numbers. The discussion should be dually focused on ensuring adequate-to-ample headroom to basic financial covenants as well as a comparison to key medians and peers. Strong financial planning will address how these metrics can be improved over time through synergies, growth, and diversification strategies.

Although it has been a difficult few years, hospitals and health systems seem to have moved onto a more stable footing over the last twelve months. In order to build upon the upward trajectory, now is the time to harness strategy, planning, and investment to move organizations from stability to sustainability.

Healthcare CFOs Share Plans for 2024

Posted on by • Posted in Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Investment, Investments, Recruiting, Service Expansion, Service Line Profitability, Service Line Rationalization, Talent Management, Workforce Development, Workforce Retention • Leave a comment

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/healthcare-cfos-share-plans-2024-steven-shill-k62nf/

The upheaval of the past few years has permanently changed the healthcare landscape, and while many sectors of the industry continue to endure financial hardship, there is reason for cautious optimism in 2024 as healthcare begins to see a return on investment in technology and a resurgence in dealmaking.

This year, BDO surveyed healthcare CFOs to discover their plans, priorities, and concerns heading into 2024.

In today’s newsletter, I’ve outlined the top research findings that every healthcare leader needs to know to prepare for the year ahead.

Top 3 Workforce Investment Areas

Clinician burnout and staffing shortages remain challenging in the healthcare industry, but BDO’s survey indicated that many CFOs are bullish that the worst is behind them, with 47% stating they feel that in 2024, the talent shortage will represent less of a risk than in 2023.

Investment in the workforce is crucial to addressing staffing challenges, and in the year ahead, healthcare CFOs intend to invest in the following ways:

1. Training: 48% of CFOs plan to spend more on training, in part to buttress ongoing investment in new technologies like AI that can help with predictive staffing and financial reporting.

2. Recruitment: 48% of CFOs will spend more on recruiting, as the talent shortfall tightens an already restricted pool of candidates.

3. Compensation & Benefits: Alongside greater spending on recruiting itself, 46% of CFOs intend to increase compensation and benefits as a means of attracting talent from competitors and retaining current staff.

Transaction Plans

Dealmaking turned a corner in 2023, with activity returning to pre-pandemic levels in Q2. Despite fluctuating interest rates and the volatility of an election year, we can expect more transactions in 2024, with 72% of CFOs planning some kind of deal, relative to their organization’s financial health and liquidity. An increase in antitrust activity, however, could impact the size and type of deals that see success. Healthcare CFOs planning a large deal should be prepared for heightened scrutiny.

While we expect to see a wide range of deals taking place over the next year, two specific deal types are worth calling out:

1. Carve-outs/Divestitures: We may see an uptick in enterprise sales, carve-outs, and divestitures, particularly for institutions that have been struggling financially — 31% of institutions that violated their bond or loan covenants in 2023 are planning to pursue deals of this kind.

2. Private Equity (PE) and Venture Capital (VC): Nearly one in five (19%) CFOs, particularly those working with physician groups, plan to explore PE and VC investment as avenues toward scaling, sharing services, and safeguarding succession planning.

Service Line Investment Plans

There are still many areas where CFOs are intending to increase investment, but changed market conditions mean that some core areas of healthcare may see decreased investment as the industry realigns:

1. Specialty Services: Fifty-two percent of CFOs plan to increase their investments in specialty services like cardiology, oncology, and dermatology, while 23% of CFOs intend to partner with a capital provider or operator.

2. Service Expansion: Home care (51%), virtual/telehealth (48%), and ambulatory service centers (49%) are also priority areas for investment as institutions continue to expand and maintain access to healthcare outside of traditional hospital and clinic settings.

3. Primary Care: Although primary care remains at the heart of the healthcare industry, many CFOs (42%) have in fact signaled an intent to reduce investment in this area, reassessing their primary care strategies due to significant cash flow pressures and ongoing realignment as the retail market gains ground.

Want to know more about healthcare leaders’ plans for the year ahead? Get more insights and data in BDO’s 2024 Healthcare CFO Outlook Survey.

Where are you planning on increasing investment in your organization this year? Let me know in the comments below.

Inside the very good GDP report

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Forget the much-discussed prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. In 2023, there was no landing at all.

Why it matters: 

Big economic rules broke last year. The latest data to confirm that is the new GDP report showing very strong economic growth to conclude 2023, even amid a big cooldown in inflation.

  • Mainstream economists and policymakers believed a period of below-trend growth would be necessary to make progress on inflation.
  • Instead, above-trend growth in 2023 coincided with inflation falling sharply, reflecting improvement in the economy’s supply potential.

Driving the news: 

The economy expanded at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, well above the 2% forecasters expected. That followed the previous quarter’s blockbuster 4.9% growth.

  • GDP was 3.1% higher in the fourth quarter than a year earlier.
  • That represents an acceleration from 0.7% GDP growth in 2022, and trounced the growth rates of most other advanced countries — and the 1.8%-ish rate that economists consider the United States’ long-term trend.

Details: 

The fourth quarter’s hot growth resulted from bustling activity across the economy.

  • Consumers spent more on goods and services, with personal consumption expenditures rising at a 2.8% annualized pace. That was responsible for nearly 2 percentage points of the fourth quarter’s GDP rise.
  • Businesses spent on equipment, factories and intellectual property at a solid pace, with nonresidential fixed investment increasing at 1.9% — up from the previous quarter.

The intrigue: 

For two years now, Fed officials have spoken of the need for a period of below-trend growth to bring inflation into line. Now, they face the decision of whether to cut rates — to essentially declare victory on inflation — even as below-trend growth is nowhere to be seen.

  • A flourishing labor market, strong productivity gains and supply-side improvements — more workers joining the workforce, for instance — has (at least so far) meant the economy can keep growing at a solid pace without risking a pickup in price pressure.
  • “[W]e had significant supply-side gains with strong demand,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said in his December press conference, adding that potential growth may have been higher than usual “just because of the healing on the supply side.”
  • “So that was a surprise to just about everybody,” Powell said.

What they’re saying: 

“This report feels like a supersonic Goldilocks: very strong GDP reading with cool inflation,” Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank, tells Axios. “Good news is good news.”

  • “With high productivity levels, we can have strong growth with less inflation. That was the case during the last soft landing in the 90s,” Bovino adds.

Cartoon – Wishful Thinking + Powerful New Jargon

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The aftermath of a C-suite slimdown

Posted on by • Posted in C-Suite, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Labor Spend Management, Leadership, Leadership Continuity, Leadership Flexibility, Operating Expense Reduction • Leave a comment
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/the-aftermath-of-a-c-suite-slimdown.html?origin=CEOE&utm_source=CEOE&utm_medium=email&utm_content=newsletter&oly_enc_id=2893H2397267F7G

Saint Peter’s Healthcare System in New Brunswick, N.J., was six years ahead of the C-suite streamlining curve.

The health system slimmed down its leadership structure in 2017, President and CEO Les Hirsch told Becker’s. A top-heavy executive team grew unsustainable as the system struggled financially, operating at a loss. Saint Peter’s board decided to combine the president and CEO positions — which were previously split in two. Then, as president and CEO, Mr. Hirsch cut five vice presidents’ positions, including the consolidation of the chief information officer and chief medical information officer roles. More than  20 middle-manager positions were also cut or consolidated.

The streamlining of senior leadership positions alone at the time eliminated over $4 million in salaries and benefits, according to Mr. Hirsch. With the old leadership structure, Saint Peter’s spent about 2.4% of its revenue on senior leaders’ compensation. Last year, that percentage sank to 1.34%.

But finances shouldn’t be the only consideration for a health system planning to whittle down its structure.

“The good news is, we’re lean,” Mr. Hirsch said. “The bad news is, we’re lean.”

Since consolidating the president and CEO roles — and not having a chief operating officer — succession planning is more complicated, per Mr. Hirsch.

“There’s no designated No. 2,” he said. “Our senior leadership team structure is very flat.”

A condensed C-suite also means more work for some members of the leadership team — which is taken in stride, Mr. Hirsch said. There’s no specific “planning” department, so executives put their heads together on strategy, growth and development initiatives.  There is no government relations officer, but Mr. Hirsch, as CEO, takes primary responsibility for this function and is very active in advocacy. 

Anyone who works on a lean team like this also “has to be a generalist,” Mr. Hirsch said. He stays up to date on the literature and sends relevant articles to other executives.

“Considering our size as one of the few remaining single-hospital health systems in New Jersey, we don’t have the luxury of having somebody specifically responsible for artificial intelligence or other niche responsibilities as these are functions that are absorbed within people’s roles,” Mr. Hirsch said. “And we all develop the knowledge needed so that we can understand how new ideas or resources may apply to us. When you’re smaller and don’t have the scale of these mega-organizations, you have to do more yourself. You roll up your sleeves.”

Despite these challenges, a little can go a long way; three departmental administrators now split the job once shared by seven people at Saint Peter’s. There’s been no hit to efficiency; “they’re more effective in their roles as departmental administrators than anybody that I’ve ever seen,” Mr. Hirsch said.

The changes to streamline management were also well-received by the workforce. Often layoffs affect front-line workers more than management or senior leadership — which may have contributed to the lack of outcry, per Mr. Hirsch. But he primarily attributes the positive reception to intentional transparency.

“Most importantly, I’m a very active communicator. So, I communicated about it. It wasn’t that there was some intrigue and mystery in the organization that people were hearing by rumor,” Mr. Hirsch said.

“Rumors — like fear — are two things that equate to being like a cancer in an organization,” he continued. “I always want to do everything I possibly can to set the facts straight and communicate with people. If it’s not confidential and I can communicate it, I will. In fact, I’ll err more on the side of communicating than keeping information close to the vest.”

Regardless of who is affected by layoffs, executives should always handle them with sensitivity, Mr. Hirsch emphasized; the right choice for an organization is not always the easy choice for its people.

“It’s always painful when you’re making these kinds of changes because they affect people, and you always have to go about those changes in a very thoughtful, considerate, and compassionate way,” Mr. Hirsch said. “You’re eliminating roles and impacting people’s lives, their careers and their family. So, I always keep that top of mind.”

Three Things Board Members Should Know When Attending Rating Agency Meetings

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https://www.kaufmanhall.com/insights/blog/three-things-board-members-should-know-when-attending-rating-agency-meetings

I am often asked how board members can play a helpful role in rating agency meetings if they are invited to attend.

Below are three ways in which board members can add value to the rating presentation:

1) Acknowledge the organization’s challenges. Too many times the key issues that need to be addressed upfront are left to the end, when time is short. Examples may include a covenant violation, unfavorable variance to budget, downturn in liquidity, or an unexpected change in management. A rating should be able to endure the ups and downs of a business cycle but large swings in performance or covenant violations challenge the bandwidth of tolerance and need to be addressed early. Better meetings acknowledge these issues upfront before the analysts ask about them (said another way: the best defense is a good offense). If the analysts leave the meeting with the sense that management is on top of the issues, then that same confidence is brought forward to the rating committee.

Covenant violations have been on the rise since 2022 and board members should be well versed in the ramifications when there is a breach. In its simplest form, a bond is a promise to pay. To ensure full and timely repayment of that bond, hospitals agree to maintain certain financial covenants that serve as financial guardrails. Covenants are typically measured on an annual basis but may be measured more frequently per the terms of the agreements. The penalties for violating a covenant can range from a consultant call-in to an event of default with acceleration provisions. In any circumstance, covenant violations require an inordinate amount of time and resources to address and should be understood, even if at a basic level, by the board.

To that end, board members should maintain a basic understanding of hospital reimbursement and the ongoing challenges hospitals face, namely: inadequate reimbursement levels, labor shortages, perennial scrutiny over tax-exempt status, and the need to improve access and equity in healthcare. An informed trustee is a great trustee. One of the most impressive board members I met in my years as a ratings analyst was a business executive who was chair of a 25-bed critical access hospital and well-versed on the complexities of reimbursement. (You read that correctly: a 25-bed hospital, not a 500-bed hospital, academic medical center, regional or national system). Despite large-scale challenges as a small facility, that hospital continued to show good financial performance. Knowledgeable governance, working in tandem with management, had something to do with that.

2) Address how the organization will absorb additional debt if adding leverage. Ratings express the ability of a hospital to repay its debt; when debt increases, the ability to repay that debt can weaken. A board member or senior management should explain how they got comfortable adding leverage to the organization and what the benefits are of using debt to fund the projects, rather than, say, cash. Detailed, multi-year financial projections should show how the hospital will rebuild the balance sheet and absorb higher debt service. Projections are especially important when the size of the construction project or acquisition funded with the debt is material. This is also an opportunity for boards to demonstrate how the various skills and expertise they bring to the organization can be helpful. For example, individuals with real estate or construction experience can bring their experience to large projects. Individuals with experience in highly regulated or highly unionized industries can also bring their know-how to senior leadership.

3) Share the organization’s succession plan. Succession planning is one of the most important responsibilities of the board. Sam Altman’s wild ride (he’s in/he’s out/he’s in, again) as CEO of OpenAI and the mutiny his departure would have caused is a timely example of why succession planning is essential. From a ratings perspective, curating the very best leadership is viewed as a best practice of high-performing organizations. A good example of strong succession planning is Texas Children’s Hospital, the largest pediatric provider in the U.S. Earlier this year, the board and the CEO created the separate role of President (this title was previously combined with the CEO’s title) and launched a search that was completed in September. The new President will report to the CEO, who will continue in his role. The Chair of the Texas Children’s Board of Trustees notes that the new structure is intended to prepare the organization for its “next evolution in leadership.” The opportunity for the new President to work with Texas Children’s long-serving CEO should ultimately provide for a smooth leadership transition.

If we’ve learned anything from the past four years, it is the importance of strong governance and management. Undoubtedly, board members will be called upon for their guidance and expertise as turbulent times continue for the industry. Maintaining a basic understanding of the hospital’s financial challenges, supporting management, and building a succession playbook will be integral to the organization’s long-term success.

Downgrades Topple Upgrades: 5 Key Takeaways from Rating Activity in 2023

Posted on by • Posted in Bond Covenant Violations, Credit Downgrade, Credit Quality, Credit Rating Committee, Credit Rating Process, Credit Ratings, Credit Upgrade, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Labor Spend Management, Medicare, Medicare Advantage, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Margin Drivers, Operating Metrics, Payor Mix • Leave a comment
https://www.kaufmanhall.com/insights/blog/5-key-takeaways-healthcare-rating-activity-2023?utm_source=mkto&utm_campaign=lisa-blog&utm_medium=em&utm_term=240124&mkt_tok=NjU0LUNOWS0yMjQAAAGQ2vVJyGwQD0qEoxeLrwDPY0slpcepOTHVq-56xKYVyfw5uMuWOoieiZx41BRE_QtWw7lvEk1Mf1uUJayukIw9peaC8OgZ1osd7EWbaLHcMGg0

As expected, 2023 saw a material increase in downgrades over 2022 while the number of upgrades declined from the prior year. Volume showed favorable growth for many hospitals during 2023 although some indicators remained below pre-pandemic levels. Other hospitals reported a payer mix shift toward more Medicare as the population continued to age and Medicare Advantage plans gained momentum at the expense of commercial revenues. Continued labor challenges drove expense growth, even with many organizations reporting a reduction in temporary labor, as permanent hires pressured salary and benefit expenses. Some of the downgrades reflected pronounced operating challenges that led to covenant violations while others were due to a material increase in leverage viewed to be too high for the rating category.

Figure1: Downgrades at Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch

Here are five key takeaways:

  1. The ratio of downgrades to upgrades reached a high level for all three rating agencies: Moody’s, 3.2-to-1; S&P: 3.8-to-1; and Fitch: 3.5-to-1. In 2022, the ratio crested just above 2.0-to-1 at the highest among the three firms.
  2. Downgrades covered a wide swath of hospitals, ranging from single-site general acute care facilities to academic medical centers as well as large regional and multistate systems. Many of the hospital downgrades were concentrated in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Washington. All rating categories saw downgrades, although the majority were clustered in the Baa/BBB and lower categories.
  3. Multi-notch downgrades were mainly relegated to ratings that were already deep into speculative grade. Multi-notch upgrades were due to mergers or acquisitions where the debt was guaranteed by or added to the legal borrowing group of the higher rated system.
  4. Upgrades reflected fundamental improvement in financial performance and debt service coverage along with strengthening balance sheet indicators. Like the downgraded organizations, upgraded hospitals and health systems ranged from single-site hospitals to expansive, super-regional systems. Some of the upgrades reflected mergers into higher-rated systems.
  5. The wide span between downgrades to upgrades in 2023 would suggest that the credit gap between highly rated hospitals (say, the “A” or “Aa/AA” category) compared to “Baa/BBB” and speculative grade is widening. That said, given that rating affirmations remain the predominant rating activity annually, the rating agencies reported only a subtle shift in the overall distribution of ratings since the beginning of the pandemic in their panel discussion at Kaufman Hall’s October 2023 Healthcare Leadership Conference.

One person’s prediction for 2024?

It’s a safe bet that downgrades will outpace upgrades given the persistent challenges, although the ratio may narrow if the improvement in current performance holds. That said, the rating agencies are maintaining mixed views for 2024. S&P and Fitch are sticking with negative and deteriorating outlooks, respectively, while Moody’s has revised its outlook to stable, anticipating that the rough times of 2022 are behind us.

All three rating agencies predict that we are not out of the woods yet when it comes to covenant challenges, especially in the lower rating categories or for those organizations that report a second year of covenant violations.

JPM 2024 just wrapped. Here are the key insights

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https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2024/01/23/jpm-takeaways-ec#accordion-718cb981ab-item-4ec6d1b6a3

Earlier this month, leaders from more than 400 organizations descended on San Francisco for J.P. Morgan‘s 42nd annual healthcare conference to discuss some of the biggest issues in healthcare today. Here’s how Advisory Board experts are thinking about Modern Healthcare’s 10 biggest takeaways — and our top resources for each insight.

How we’re thinking about the top 10 takeaways from JPM’s annual healthcare conference 

Following the conference, Modern Healthcare  provided a breakdown of the top-of-mind issues attendees discussed.  

Here’s how our experts are thinking about the top 10 takeaways from the conference — and the resources they recommend for each insight.  

1. Ambulatory care provides a growth opportunity for some health systems

By Elizabeth Orr, Vidal Seegobin, and Paul Trigonoplos

At the conference, many health system leaders said they are evaluating growth opportunities for outpatient services. 

However, results from our Strategic Planner’s Survey suggest only the biggest systems are investing in building new ambulatory facilities. That data, alongside the high cost of borrowing and the trifurcation of credit that Fitch is predicting, suggests that only a select group of health systems are currently poised to leverage ambulatory care as a growth opportunity.  

Systems with limited capital will be well served by considering other ways to reach patients outside the hospital through virtual care, a better digital front door, and partnerships. The efficiency of outpatient operations and how they connect through the care continuum will affect the ROI on ambulatory investments. Buying or building ambulatory facilities does not guarantee dramatic revenue growth, and gaining ambulatory market share does not always yield improved margins.

While physician groups, together with management service organizations, are very good at optimizing care environments to generate margins (and thereby profit), most health systems use ambulatory surgery center development as a defensive market share tactic to keep patients within their system.  

This approach leaves margins on the table and doesn’t solve the growth problem in the long term. Each of these ambulatory investments would do well to be evaluated on both their individual profitability and share of wallet. 

On January 24 and 25, Advisory Board will convene experts from across the healthcare ecosystem to inventory the predominant growth strategies pursued by major players, explore considerations for specialty care and ambulatory network development, understand volume and site-of-care shifts, and more. Register here to join us for the Redefining Growth Virtual Summit.  

Also, check out our resources to help you plan for shifts in patient utilization:  

2. Rebounding patient volumes further strain capacity

By Jordan Peterson, Eliza Dailey, and Allyson Paiewonsky 

Many health system leaders noted that both inpatient and outpatient volumes have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, placing further strain on workforces.  

The rebound in patient volumes, coupled with an overstretched workforce, underscores the need to invest in technology to extend clinician reach, while at the same time doubling down on operational efficiency to help with things like patient access and scheduling. 

For leaders looking to leverage technology and boost operational efficiency, we have a number of resources that can help:  

3. Health systems aren’t specific on AI strategies

By Paul Trigonoplos and John League

According to Modern Healthcare, nearly all health systems discussed artificial intelligence (AI) at the conference, but few offered detailed implementation plans and expectations.

Over the past year, a big part of the work for Advisory Board’s digital health and health systems research teams has been to help members reframe the fear of missing out (FOMO) that many care delivery organizations have about AI.  

We think AI can and will solve problems in healthcare. Every organization should at least be observing AI innovations. But we don’t believe that “the lack of detail on healthcare AI applications may signal that health systems aren’t ready to embrace the relatively untested and unregulated technology,” as Modern Healthcare reported. 

The real challenge for many care delivery organizations is dealing with the pace of change — not readiness to embrace or accept it. They aren’t used to having to react to anything as fast-moving as AI’s recent evolution. If their focus for now is on low-hanging fruit, that’s completely understandable. It’s also much more important for these organizations to spend time now linking AI to their strategic goals and building out their governance structures than it is to be first in line with new applications.  

Check out our top resources for health systems working to implement AI: 

4. Digital health companies tout AI capabilities

By Ty Aderhold and John League

Digital health companies like Teladoc, R1 RCM, Veradigm, and Talkspace all spoke out about their use of generative AI. 

This does not surprise us at all. In fact, we would be more surprised if digital health companies were not touting their AI capabilities. Generative AI’s flexibility and ease of use make it an accessible addition to nearly any technology solution.  

However, that alone does not necessarily make the solution more valuable or useful. In fact, many organizations would do well to consider how they want to apply new AI solutions and compare those solutions to the ones that they would have used in October 2022 — before ChatGPT’s newest incarnation was unveiled. It may be that other forms of AI, predictive analytics, or robotic process automation are as effective at a better cost.  

Again, we believe that AI can and will solve problems in healthcare. We just don’t think it will solve every problem in healthcare, or that every solution benefits from its inclusion.  

Check out our top resources on generative AI: 

5. Health systems speak out on denials

By Mallory Kirby

During the conference, providers criticized insurers for the rate of denials, Modern Healthcare reports. 

Denials — along with other utilization management techniques like prior authorization — continue to build tension between payers and providers, with payers emphasizing their importance for ensuring cost effective, appropriate care and providers overwhelmed by both the administrative burden and the impact of denials on their finances. 

  Many health plans have announced major moves to reduce prior authorizations and CMS recently announced plans to move forward with regulations to streamline the prior authorization process. However, these efforts haven’t significantly impacted providers yet.  

In fact, most providers report no decrease in denials or overall administrative burden. A new report found that claims denials increased by 11.99% in the first three quarters of 2023, following similar double digit increases in 2021 and 2022. 

  Our team is actively researching the root cause of this discrepancy and reasons for the noted increase in denials. Stay tuned for more on improving denials performance — and the broader payer-provider relationship — in upcoming 2024 Advisory Board research. 

For now, check out this case study to see how Baptist Health achieved a 0.65% denial write-off rate.  

6. Insurers are prioritizing Star Ratings and risk adjustment changes

By Mallory Kirby

Various insurers and providers spoke about “the fallout from star ratings and risk adjustment changes.”

2023 presented organizations focused on MA with significant headwinds. While many insurers prioritized MA growth in recent years, leaders have increased their emphasis on quality and operational excellence to ensure financial sustainability.

  With an eye on these headwinds, it makes sense that insurers are upping their game to manage Star Ratings and risk adjustment. While MA growth felt like the priority in years past, this focus on operational excellence to ensure financial sustainability has become a priority.   

We’ve already seen litigation from health plans contesting the regulatory changes that impact the bottom line for many MA plans. But with more changes on the horizon — including the introduction of the Health Equity Index as a reward factor for Stars and phasing in of the new Risk Adjustment Data Validation model — plans must prioritize long-term sustainability.  

Check out our latest MA research for strategies on MA coding accuracy and Star Ratings:  

7. PBMs brace for policy changes

By Chloe Bakst and Rachael Peroutky 

Pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) leaders discussed the ways they are preparing for potential congressional action, including “updating their pricing models and diversifying their revenue streams.”

Healthcare leaders should be prepared for Congress to move forward with PBM regulation in 2024. A final bill will likely include federal reporting requirements, spread pricing bans, and preferred pricing restrictions for PBMs with their own specialty pharmacy. In the short term, these regulations will likely apply to Medicare and Medicaid population benefits only, and not the commercial market. 

Congress isn’t the only entity calling for change. Several states passed bills in the last year targeting PBM transparency and pricing structures. The Federal Trade Commission‘s ongoing investigation into select PBMs looks at some of the same practices Congress aims to regulate. PBM commercial clients are also applying pressure. In 2023, Blue Cross Blue Shield of California‘s (BSC) decided to outsource tasks historically performed by their PBM partner. A statement from BSC indicated the change was in part due to a desire for less complexity and more transparency. 

Here’s what this means for PBMs: 

Transparency is a must

The level of scrutiny on transparency will force the hand of PBMs. They will have to comply with federal and state policy change and likely give something to their commercial partners to stay competitive. We’re already seeing this unfold across some of the largest PBMs. Recently, CVS Caremarkand Express Scripts launched transparent reimbursement and pricing models for participating in-network pharmacies and plan sponsors. 

While transparency requirements will be a headache for larger PBMs, they might be a real threat to smaller companies. Some small PBMs highlight transparency as their main value add. As the larger PBMs focus more on transparency, smaller PBMs who rely on transparent offerings to differentiate themselves in a crowded market may lose their main competitive edge. 

PBMs will have to try new strategies to boost revenue

PBM practice of guiding prescriptions to their own specialty pharmacy or those providing more competitive pricing is a key strategy for revenue. Stricter regulations on spread pricing and patient steerage will prompt PBMs to look for additional revenue levers.   

PBMs are already getting started — with Express Scripts reporting they will cut reimbursement for wholesale brand name drugs by about 10% in 2024. Other PBMs are trying to diversify their business opportunities. For example, CVS Caremark’s has offered a new TrueCost model to their clients for an additional fee. The model determines drug prices based on the net cost of drugs and clearly defined fee structures. We’re also watching growing interest in cross-benefit utilization management programs for specialty drugs.  These offerings look across both medical and pharmacy benefits to ensure that the most cost-effective drug is prescribed for patients. 

Check out some of our top resources on PBMs:  

To learn more about some of the recent industry disruptions, check out:   

8. Healthcare disruptors forge on

 By John League

At the conference, retailers such as CVS, Walgreens, and Amazon doubled down on their healthcare services strategies.

Typically, disruptors do not get into care delivery because they think it will be easy. Disruptors get into care delivery because they look at what is currently available and it looks so hard — hard to access, hard to understand, and hard to pay for.  

Many established players still view so-called disruptors as problematic, but we believe that most tech companies that move into healthcare are doing what they usually do — they look at incumbent approaches that make it hard for customers and stakeholders to access, understand, and pay for care, and see opportunities to use technology and innovative business models in an attempt to target these pain points.

CVS, Walgreens, and Amazon are pursuing strategies that are intended to make it more convenient for specific populations to get care. If those efforts aren’t clearly profitable, that does not mean that they will fail or that they won’t pressure legacy players to make changes to their own strategies. Other organizations don’t have to copy these disruptors (which is good because most can’t), but they must acknowledge why patient-consumers are attracted to these offerings.  

For more information on how disruptors are impacting healthcare, check out these resources:  

9. Financial pressures remain for many health systems

By Vidal Seegobin and Marisa Nives

Health systems are recovering from the worst financial year in recent history. While most large health systems presenting at the conference saw their finances improve in 2023, labor challenges and reimbursement pressures remain.  

We would be remiss to say that hospitals aren’t working hard to improve their finances. In fact, operating margins in November 2023 broke 2%. But margins below 3% remain a challenge for long-term financial sustainability.  

One of the more concerning trends is that margin growth is not tracking with a large rebound in volumes. There are number of culprits: elevated cost structures, increased patient complexity, and a reimbursement structure shifting towards government payers.  

For many systems, this means they need to return to mastering the basics: Managing costs, workforce retention, and improving quality of care. While these efforts will help bridge the margin gap, the decoupling of volumes and margins means that growth for health systems can’t center on simply getting bigger to expand volumes.

Maximizing efficiency, improving access, and bending the cost curve will be the main pillars for growth and sustainability in 2024.  

 To learn more about what health system strategists are prioritizing in 2024, read our recent survey findings.  

Also, check out our resources on external partnerships and cost-saving strategies:  

10. MA utilization is still high

By Max Hakanson and Mallory Kirby  

During the conference, MA insurers reported seeing a spike in utilization driven by increased doctor’s visits and elective surgeries.  

These increased medical expenses are putting more pressure on MA insurers’ margins, which are already facing headwinds due to CMS changes in MA risk-adjustment and Star Ratings calculations. 

However, this increased utilization isn’t all bad news for insurers. Part of the increased utilization among seniors can be attributed to more preventive care, such as an uptick in RSV vaccinations.  

In UnitedHealth Group‘s* Q4 earnings call, CFO John Rex noted that, “Interest in getting the shot, especially among the senior population, got some people into the doctor’s office when they hadn’t visited in a while,” which led to primary care physicians addressing other care needs. As seniors are referred to specialty care to address these needs, plans need to have strategies in place to better manage their specialist spend.   

To learn how organizations are bringing better value to specialist care in MA, check out our market insight on three strategies to align specialists to value in MA. (Kacik et al., Modern Healthcare, 1/12)

*Advisory Board is a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group. All Advisory Board research, expert perspectives, and recommendations remain independent.