Doctors Without Patients: ‘Our Waiting Rooms Are Like Ghost Towns’

18 of the Spookiest Ghost Towns in America - Most Haunted Places

As visits plummet because of the coronavirus, small physician practices are struggling to survive.

Autumn Road in Little Rock, Ark., is the type of doctor’s practice that has been around long enough to be treating the grandchildren of its eldest patients.

For 50 years, the group has been seeing families like Kelli Rutledge’s. A technician for a nearby ophthalmology practice, she has been going to Autumn Road for two decades.

The group’s four doctors and two nurse practitioners quickly adapted to the coronavirus pandemic, sharply cutting back clinic hours and switching to virtual visits to keep patients and staff safe.

When Kelli, 54, and her husband, Travis, 56, developed symptoms of Covid-19, the couple drove to the group’s office and spoke to the nurse practitioner over the phone. “She documented all of our symptoms,” Ms. Rutledge said. They were swabbed from their car.

While the practice was never a big moneymaker, its revenues have plummeted. The number of patients seen daily by providers has dropped to half its average of 120. The practice’s payments from March and April are down about $150,000, or roughly 40 percent.

“That won’t pay the light bill or the rent,” said Tabitha Childers, the administrator of the practice, which recently laid off 12 people.

While there are no hard numbers, there are signs that many small groups are barely hanging on. Across the country, only half of primary care doctor practices say they have enough cash to stay open for the next four weeks, according to one study, and many are already laying off or furloughing workers.

“The situation facing front-line physicians is dire,” three physician associations representing more than 260,000 doctors, wrote to the secretary of health and human services, Alex M. Azar II, at the end of April. “Obstetrician-gynecologists, pediatricians, and family physicians are facing dramatic financial challenges leading to substantial layoffs and even practice closures.”

By another estimate, as many as 60,000 physicians in family medicine may no longer be working in their practices by June because of the pandemic.

The faltering doctors’ groups reflect part of a broader decline in health care alongside the nation’s economic downturn. As people put off medical appointments and everything from hip replacements to routine mammograms, health spending dropped an annualized rate of 18 percent in the first three months of the year, according to recent federal data.

While Congress has rushed to send tens of billions of dollars to the hospitals reporting large losses and passed legislation to send even more, small physician practices in medicine’s least profitable fields like primary care and pediatrics are struggling to stay afloat. “They don’t have any wiggle room,” said Dr. Lisa Bielamowicz, a co-founder of Gist Healthcare, a consulting firm.

None of the money allocated by lawmakers has been specifically targeted to the nation’s doctors, although the latest bill set aside funds for community health centers. Some funds were also set aside for small businesses, which would include many doctors’ practices, but many have faced the same frustration as other owners in finding themselves shut out of much of the funding available.

Federal officials have taken some steps to help small practices, including advancing Medicare payments and reimbursing doctors for virtual visits. But most of the relief has gone to the big hospital and physician groups. “We have to pay special attention to these independent primary care practices, and we’re not paying special attention to them,” said Dr. Farzad Mostashari, a former health official in the Obama administration, whose company, Aledade, works with practices like Autumn Road.

“The hospitals are getting massive bailouts,” said Dr. Christopher Crow, the president of Catalyst Health Network in Texas. “They’ve really left out primary care, really all the independent physicians,” he said.

“Here’s the scary thing — as these practices start to break down and go bankrupt, we could have more consolidation among the health care systems,” Dr. Crow said. That concerns health economists, who say the steady rise in costs is linked to the clout these big hospital networks wield with private insurers to charge high prices.

While the pandemic has wreaked widespread havoc across the economy, shuttering restaurants and department stores and throwing tens of millions of Americans out of work, doctors play an essential role in the health of the public. In addition to treating coronavirus patients who would otherwise show up at the hospital, they are caring for people with chronic diseases like diabetes and asthma.

Keeping these practices open is not about protecting the doctors’ livelihoods, said Michael Chernew, a health policy professor at Harvard Medical School. “I worry about how well these practices will be able to shoulder the financial burden to be able to meet the health care needs people have,” he said.

“If practices close down, you lose access to a point of care,” said Dr. Chernew, who was one of the authors of a new analysis published by the Commonwealth Fund that found doctor’s visits dropped by about 60 percent from mid-March to mid-April. The researchers used visit data from clients of a technology firm, Phreesia.

Nearly 30 percent of the visits were virtual as doctors rushed to offer telemedicine as the safest alternative for their staff and patients. “It’s remarkable how quickly it was embraced,” said Dr. Ateev Mehrotra, a hospitalist and associate professor of health policy at Harvard Medical School, who was also involved in the study. But even with virtual visits, patient interaction was significantly lower.

Almost half of primary care practices have laid off or furloughed employees, said Rebecca Etz, an associate professor of family medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University and co-director of the Larry A. Green Center, which is surveying doctors with the Primary Care Collaborative, a nonprofit group. Many practices said they did not know if they had enough cash to stay open for the next month.

Pediatricians, which are among the lowest paid of the medical specialties, could be among the hardest hit. Federal officials used last year’s payments under the Medicare program to determine which groups should get the initial $30 billion in funds. Because pediatricians don’t generally treat Medicare patients, they were not compensated for the decline in visits as parents chose not to take their children to the doctor and skipped their regular checkups.

“This virus has the potential to essentially put pediatricians out of business across the country,” said Dr. Susan Sirota, a pediatrician in Chicago who leads a network of a dozen pediatric practices in the area. “Our waiting rooms are like ghost towns,” she said.

Pediatricians have also ordered tens of thousands of dollars on vaccines for their patients at a time when vaccine rates have plunged because of the pandemic, and they are now working with the manufacturers to delay payments for at least a time. “We don’t have the cash flow to pay them,” said Dr. Susan Kressly, a pediatrician in Warrington, Pa.

Even those practices that quickly ramped up their use of telemedicine are troubled. In Albany, Ga., a community that was an unexpected hot spot for the virus, Dr. Charles Gebhardt, a doctor who is treating some infected patients, rapidly converted his practice to doing nearly everything virtually. Dr. Gebhardt also works with Aledade to care for Medicare patients.

But the telemedicine visits are about twice as long as a typical office visit, Dr. Gebhardt said. Instead of seeing 25 patients a day, he may see eight. “We will quickly go broke at this rate,” he said.

Although he said the small-business loans and advance Medicare payments are “a Godsend, and they will help us survive the next few months,” he also said practices like his need to go back to seeing patients in person if they are to remain viable. Medicare will no longer be advancing payments to providers, and many of the small-business funding represents a short-term fix.

While Medicare and some private insurers are covering virtual visits, which would include telephone calls, doctors say the payments do not make up for the lost revenue from tests and procedures that help them stay in business. “Telehealth is not the panacea and does not make up for all the financial losses,” said Dr. Patrice Harris, the president of the American Medical Association.

To keep the practices open, Dr. Mostashari and others propose doctors who treat Medicare and Medicaid patients receive a flat fee per person.

Even more worrisome, doctors’ groups may not be delivering care to those who need it, said Dr. Mehrotra, the Harvard researcher, because the practices are relying on patients to get in touch rather than reaching out.

Some doctors are already voicing concerns about patients who do not have access to a cellphone or computer or may not be adept at working with telemedicine apps. “Not every family has access to the technology to connect with us the right way,” said Dr. Kressly, who said the transition to virtual care “is making disparities worse.”

Some patients may also still prefer traditional office visits. While the Rutledges appreciated the need for virtual visits, Kelli said there was less time to “talk about other things.”

“Telehealth is more inclined to be about strictly what you are there for,” she said.

Private equity firms and large hospital systems are already eying many of these practices in hopes of buying them, said Paul D. Vanchiere, a consultant who advises pediatric practices.

“The vultures are circling here,” he said. “They know these practices are going to have financial hardship.”

 

 

 

 

Reopening the U.S. Economy

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/reopening-the-us-economy.html

Click to access report.pdf

Allison Nathan, senior strategist for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses her latest Top of Mind report where she speaks with leading experts across health and policy to understand how well-positioned the U.S. is to achieve a safe reopening of the economy and how quickly it would translate into economic recovery. 

With COVID-19 mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case
growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue
to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have
already started to implement—economic reopening. But absent herd immunity or
a vaccine for the virus, such reopenings increase the risk of disease resurgence.
With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the
US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic
recovery is Top of Mind. We consult three experts on these questions: University of
Pennsylvania’s Dr. Zeke Emanuel, Duke University’s Dr. Mark McClellan and Harvard
University’s Dr. Barry Bloom. And we share our own take on a potential US recovery path, informed by lessons from
China’s reopening experience so far. Finally, with more complete economic normalization only likely with an effective
testing regime, treatments, or a widely available vaccine for COVID-19-we discuss where we are on all of the above.

 

 

 

Coronavirus Dashboard

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-latest-news-quick-highlights-57a186a3-7547-45bf-852a-83019849d8d5.html

Photo collage of newspaper clippings with cutout of a red virus in the middle

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 3,630,942 — Total deaths: 254,592 — Total recoveries — 1,184,625 — Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 1,193,027 — Total deaths: 70,110 — Total recoveries — 187,180 — Total tested: 7,285,178 — Map.
  3. Trump administration: Whistleblower alleges HHS failed to act quickly on coronavirus — Pence says the White House is considering disbanding the coronavirus task force.
  4. World: U.K. reports highest coronavirus death toll in Europe.
  5. States: New York reports 1,700 new coronavirus deaths in nursing homes.
  6. 🎓 Commencement: Barack and Michelle Obama to take part in virtual commencement ceremonies for class of 2020.
  7. What should I do? Hydroxychloroquine questions answered — Traveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagious — Masks, lending books and self-isolating — Exercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal health — Answers about the virus from Axios experts — What to know about social distancing — How to minimize your risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the viruswhat to do if you get itthe right mask to wear.

 

 

 

White House plans to scale back coronavirus task force

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/496211-white-house-signals-it-will-wind-down-coronavirus-task-force

Anthony Fauci - Axios

The White House is in the early stages of winding down its coronavirus task force, Vice President Pence’s office confirmed Tuesday.

The surprise decision comes as most states are preparing to loosen restrictions meant to slow the spread of the virus, while a number of areas continue to see increases in new COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Pence’s office confirmed to The Hill that the vice president told reporters at a limited briefing that his plan is to scale back the task force’s role by Memorial Day. Pence has been leading the task force since late February.

Members are likely to return to their respective departments and manage the coronavirus response from there.

Dr. Deborah Birx, who was brought in from the State Department to coordinate the White House virus response, will “continue to review and analyze data and work with the departments in agencies to help that data inform their decision making processes,” a spokesman for Pence’s office said.

The New York Times first reported on the expected demise of the task force.

The task force, which includes nearly two dozen officials from various government agencies, held near-daily press briefings for more than a month but has been less visible in recent weeks as President Trump and others transition their focus to the economic consequences of the pandemic.

There have been no coronavirus task force briefings in more than a week, and the daily meetings have become less frequent. The group was scheduled to meet Tuesday afternoon.

But the decision to formally disband the task force is sure to raise concern among public health experts who have warned the coronavirus will likely be part of life in the U.S. until there is a widely available vaccine, which could take a year or longer to develop.

 

 

Coronavirus in the U.S.: An Unrelenting Crush of Cases and Deaths

Coronavirus in the U.S.: An Unrelenting Crush of Cases and Deaths ...

While cities like New York have seen a hopeful drop in cases, upticks in other major cities and smaller communities have offset those decreases.

In New York City, the daily onslaught of death from the coronavirus has dropped to half of what it was. In Chicago, a makeshift hospital in a lakefront convention center is closing, deemed no longer needed. And in New Orleans, new cases have dwindled to a handful each day.

Yet across America, those signs of progress obscure a darker reality.

The country is still in the firm grip of a pandemic with little hope of release. For every indication of improvement in controlling the virus, new outbreaks have emerged elsewhere, leaving the nation stuck in a steady, unrelenting march of deaths and infections.

As states continue to lift restrictions meant to stop the virus, impatient Americans are freely returning to shopping, lingering in restaurants and gathering in parks. Regular new flare-ups and super-spreader events are expected to be close behind.

Any notion that the coronavirus threat is fading away appears to be magical thinking, at odds with what the latest numbers show.

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots for the virus. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging in grocery stores, Walmarts or factories, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy will bring.

While dozens of rural counties have no known coronavirus cases, a panoramic view of the country reveals a grim and distressing picture.

“If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down,’’ said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “If you exclude New York, it’s a plateau slowly moving up.”

In early April, more than 5,000 new cases were regularly being added in New York City on a daily basis. Those numbers have dropped significantly over the last few weeks, but that progress has been largely offset by increases in other major cities.

Consider Chicago and Los Angeles, which have flattened their curves and avoided the explosive growth of New York City. Even so, coronavirus cases in their counties have more than doubled since April 18. Cook County, home to Chicago, is now sometimes adding more than 2,000 new cases in a day, and Los Angeles County has often been adding at least 1,000.

Dallas County in Texas has been adding about 100 more cases than it was a month ago, and the counties that include Boston and Indianapolis have also reported higher numbers.

It is not just the major cities. Smaller towns and rural counties in the Midwest and South have suddenly been hit hard, underscoring the capriciousness of the pandemic.

Dakota County, Neb., which has the third-most cases per capita in the country, had no known cases as recently as April 11. Now the county is a hot zone for the virus.

Dakota City is home to a major Tyson beef-processing plant, where cases have been reported. And the region, which spreads across the borders of both Iowa and South Dakota, is dotted with meat-processing plants that have been a major source of work for generations. The pattern has repeated all over: Federal authorities say that at least 4,900 meat and poultry processing workers have been infected across 19 states.

The Tyson plant in Dakota City has temporarily closed for deep cleaning. Now the workers wait, afraid to go back to work but fearful not to.

“They need money and they want to go back of course,” said Qudsia Hussein, whose husband is an imam in the area. With many businesses shuttered or suffering financially because of the pandemic, she said, “There’s no other place they can work.”

Trousdale County, Tenn., another rural area, suddenly finds itself with the nation’s highest per capita infection rate by far. A prison appears responsible for a huge spike in cases; in 10 days, this county of about 11,000 residents saw its known cases skyrocket to 1,344 from 27.

As of last week, more than half of the inmates and staff members tested at Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Hartsville, Tenn., were positive for the virus, officials said.

“It’s been my worst nightmare since the beginning of this that this would happen,” said Dwight Jewell, chairman of the Trousdale County Commission. “I’ve been expecting this. You put that many people in a contained environment and all it takes is one.”

Everyone in town knows about the outbreak. But they are defiant: Businesses in the county are reopening this week. On Monday evening, county commissioners were scheduled to have an in-person meeting, with chairs spaced six feet apart. They have a budget to pass and other issues facing the county, Mr. Jewell said.

“We’ve got to get back to the business of the community,” he said.

Infectious-disease experts are troubled by perceptions that the United States has seen the worst of the virus, and have sought to caution against misplaced optimism.

“I don’t see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month,” Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has studied the spread and evolution of the virus, wrote on Twitter. He added, “There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things to be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups.”

The outbreak in the United States has already killed more than 68,000 people, and epidemiologists say the nation will not see fewer than 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths a week until after June 20, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

An aggregate of several models assembled by Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the university, predicts there will be an average of 10,000 deaths per week for the next few weeks. That is fewer than in previous weeks, but it does not mean a peak has been passed, Dr. Reich said. In the seven-day period that ended on Sunday, about 12,700 deaths tied to the virus occurred across the country.

“There’s this idea that it’s going to go up and it’s going to come down in a symmetric curve,” Dr. Reich said. “It doesn’t have to do that. It could go up and we could have several thousand deaths per week for many weeks.”

The deaths have hit few places harder than America’s nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. More than a quarter of the deaths have been linked to those facilities, and more than 118,000 residents and staff members in at least 6,800 homes have contracted the virus.

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

“Even if we’re past the first peak, that doesn’t mean the worst is behind us,” said Youyang Gu, the data scientist who created the model. “It goes up quickly but it’s a slow decline down.”

 

 

 

 

The world came together for a virtual vaccine summit. The U.S. was conspicuously absent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-world-comes-together-for-a-virtual-vaccine-summit-the-us-is-conspicuously-absent/2020/05/04/ac5b6754-8a5c-11ea-80df-d24b35a568ae_story.html?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkdRelpUWXlNV1k0TW1WaSIsInQiOiJXSHJqUW1UV042bmt0Q1A5TUhJQ2dZOWFucFNYbmxtdTRsZUV2c0ltYzJmZkl5aU43NGJqbDdCZnB4Y0sxK0hJaXRzWjZmajAxN3V5aGZCbGQrS1wvcm1id2dVaGRZdld1TFpXMEt0VUkrMWtrMGJ6cko3VW5jVUZwZlpKR1d0eHEifQ%3D%3D

The world comes together for a virtual vaccine summit. The U.S. is ...

World leaders came together in a virtual summit Monday to pledge billions of dollars to quickly develop vaccines and drugs to fight the coronavirus.

Missing from the roster was the Trump administration, which declined to participate but highlighted from Washington what one official called its “whole-of-America” efforts in the United States and its generosity to global health efforts.

The online conference, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and a half-dozen countries, was set to raise $8.2 billion from governments, philanthropies and the private sector to fund research and mass-produce drugs, vaccines and testing kits to combat the virus, which has killed more than 250,000 people worldwide.

With the money came soaring rhetoric about international solidarity and a good bit of boasting about each country’s efforts and achievements, live and prerecorded, by Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Boris Johnson, Japan’s Shinzo Abe — alongside Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“The more we pull together and share our expertise, the faster our scientists will succeed,” said Johnson, who was so stricken by the virus that he thought he might never leave the intensive care unit alive last month. “The race to discover the vaccine to defeat this virus is not a competition between countries but the most urgent shared endeavor of our lifetimes.”

A senior Trump administration official said Monday the United States “welcomes” the efforts of the conference participants. He did not explain why the United States did not join them.

“Many of the organizations and programs this pledging conference seeks to support already receive very significant funding and support from the U.S. government and private sector,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under White House rules for briefing reporters.

Public health officials and researchers expressed surprise.

“It’s the first time that I can think of where you have had a major international pledging conference for a global crisis of this kind of importance, and the U.S. is just absent,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, who worked on the Ebola response in the Obama administration.

Given that no one knows which vaccines will succeed, he said, it’s crucial to back multiple efforts working in parallel.

“Against that kind of uncertainty we should be trying to position ourselves to be supporting — and potentially benefiting from — all of them,” said Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “And instead we seem to be just focused on trying to win the race, in the hopes we happen to get one of the successful ones.”

Conference participants expressed a need for unity.

“We can’t just have the wealthiest countries have a vaccine and not share it with the world,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said.

“Let us in the international community unite to overcome this crisis,” Abe said.

Russia and India also did not participate. Chinese premier Li Keqiang was replaced at the last minute by Zhang Ming, Beijing’s ambassador to the European Union.

The U.S. official said the United States “is the single largest health and humanitarian donor in world. And the American people have continued that legacy of generosity in the global fight against covid-19.”

“And we would welcome additional high-quality, transparent contributions from others,” he said.

Asked three more times to explain why the United States did not attend, the official said he already had given an answer.

The U.S. government has provided $775 million in emergency health, humanitarian, economic and development aid for governments, international organizations and charities fighting the pandemic. The official said the United States is in the process of giving about twice that amount in additional funding.

There was one major American player at the virtual summit: the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which promised to spend $125 million in the fight.

“This virus doesn’t care what nationality you are,” Melinda Gates told the gathering. As long as the virus is somewhere, she said, it’s everywhere.

Scientists are working around-the-clock to find a cure or treatment for the coronavirus. The World Health Organization says eight vaccines have entered human trials and another 94 are in development.

But finding an effective vaccine is only part of the challenge. When it’s discovered, infectious disease experts are predicting a scramble for limited doses, because there won’t be enough to vaccinate everyone on Day One. And deploying it could be difficult, particularly in countries that lack robust medical infrastructure.

Those that have begun human trials include a research project at Oxford University in England, which hopes to have its vaccine ready in the fall. The university started human trials on April 23. “In normal times,” British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said, “reaching this stage would take years.”

Other scientists are sprinting to create antiviral drugs or repurposing existing drugs such as remdesivir, which U.S. infectious diseases chief Anthony S. Fauci said he expected would be the new “standard of care.”

Other approaches now in trial include treatments such as convalescent plasma, which involves taking blood plasma from people who have recovered from covid-19 to patients who are fighting the virus, in the hope that the antibody-rich fluid will give the infected a helping hand.

Conference participants expressed hope that by working together, the world will find solutions more quickly — and they can then be dispersed to all countries, not only the wealthy, or those that developed vaccines first.

Many of the leaders stressed their support for the WHO. President Trump announced last month he was cutting off U.S. funding for the WHO because he said it had sided too closely with China, where the coronavirus arose. Trump says Chinese leaders underplayed the threat and hid crucial facts.

Public health analysts have shared some of those criticisms but have also criticized Trump for cutting off funding.

Peter Jay Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said the United States has always been the primary funder of new products for global health. The country invested $1.8 billion in neglected diseases in 2018, according to Policy Cures Research, more than two-thirds of the worldwide total.

Hotez said the United States shoulders the burden of investing in global health technologies, while countries such as China do not step up.

“More than one mechanism for supporting global health technologies — that may not be such as a bad thing,” he said. “If it was all under one umbrella, you risk that some strong-willed opinions would carry the day and you might not fund the best technology.”

Hotez is working on a coronavirus vaccine that uses an existing, low-cost technology, previously used for the hepatitis B vaccine, precisely because he is worried about equitable distribution of the vaccine.

“I’m not very confident that some of the cutting-edge technologies going into clinical trials, which have never led to a licensed vaccine before, are going to filter down to low- and middle-income countries anytime soon,” Hotez said. “I’m really worried.”

 

 

 

 

Researchers double U.S. COVID-19 death forecast, citing eased restrictions

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/researchers-double-u-s-covid-19-death-forecast-citing-eased-restrictions-idUSKBN22G1T3?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkdRelpUWXlNV1k0TW1WaSIsInQiOiJXSHJqUW1UV042bmt0Q1A5TUhJQ2dZOWFucFNYbmxtdTRsZUV2c0ltYzJmZkl5aU43NGJqbDdCZnB4Y0sxK0hJaXRzWjZmajAxN3V5aGZCbGQrS1wvcm1id2dVaGRZdld1TFpXMEt0VUkrMWtrMGJ6cko3VW5jVUZwZlpKR1d0eHEifQ%3D%3D

Researchers double U.S. COVID-19 death forecast, citing eased ...

A newly revised coronavirus mortality model predicts nearly 135,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by early August, almost double previous projections, as social-distancing measures for quelling the pandemic are increasingly relaxed, researchers said on Monday.

The ominous new forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) reflect “rising mobility in most U.S. states” with an easing of business closures and stay-at-home orders expected in 31 states by May 11, the institute said.

“We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer,” the IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, said in a statement.

The projections reinforced warnings from public health experts that a rising clamor to lift restrictions on commerce and social activities – in hopes of healing a ravaged economy – could exact a staggering cost in terms of human lives.

The novel coronavirus is already known to have infected almost 1.2 million people in the United States, including 68,762 who have died from COVID-19, the respiratory illness it causes, according to Reuters’ own tally.

The institute’s predictive coronavirus model, periodically revised to account for changing circumstances and scientific insights surrounding the pandemic, has become an influential data point often cited by the White House and public health authorities in gauging the crisis.

The IHME projections are presented as a statistical range of outcomes. The latest forecast predicts the cumulative number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19 will run from as few as 95,092 to as many as 242,890 by Aug. 4 – with 134,475 lives lost representing the most likely, middle ground.

By comparison, the previous revision issued on April 29 put the middle-case figure at 72,400 deaths, within a range between 59,300 and 114,200 fatalities.

Researchers double U.S. COVID-19 death forecast, citing eased ...

EASED SOCIAL DISTANCING

The upward spike reflects increasing human interactions as more states begin to ease social-distancing requirements – the chief public health tool available to curb the spread of a highly contagious virus for which there is no vaccine and no cure.

The relaxation of social-distancing rules will more than offset any decline in transmissions that might come from warmer weather and stronger containment measures, such as more wide-scale testing and tracing the contacts of infected people so they too can be tested and isolated, Murray said.

The revised IHME projections coincided with disclosure of an internal Trump administration forecast predicting a surge in COVID-19 cases killing 3,000 Americans a day by the end of May, up from a current daily toll that a Reuters tally places at around 2,000.

That projection, first reported by the New York Times and confirmed by a Reuters source, also forecast about 200,000 new coronavirus cases each day by the end of the month, up from the current rate of about 25,000 cases every 24 hours.

TRUMP’S PREDICTIONS

Asked about the confidential forecast, White House spokesman Judd Deere said: “This is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting.”

President Donald Trump has given varying predictions for the number of people in the United States who will succumb to COVID-19. As recently as Friday, he said he hoped fewer than 100,000 Americans would die, and had talked last week of 60,000 to 70,000 deaths.

But on Sunday night, the president acknowledged the death toll may climb much higher.

“We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people. That’s a horrible thing,” he told Fox News.

In New York, the state that accounts for about a third of all U.S. infections, Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined plans to ease restrictions on a regional basis.

Without giving a specific time frame, Cuomo told a daily briefing that construction, manufacturing and the wholesale supply chain would be allowed to start up under the first phase of a four-step return to normality.

A second phase would permit insurance, retail, administrative support and real estate businesses to open again, followed by restaurants, food services, hotels and accommodation businesses in the third stage, Cuomo said. In the final phase, arts, entertainment and recreation facilities and education would restart.

Cuomo suggested that rural parts of New York might be relaxed ahead of “higher-risk regions,” including New York City.

California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Monday he would ease the state’s stay-at-home orders by Thursday, expanding the number of retail businesses that can provide curbside services.

“This is an optimistic day, as we see a little bit of a ray of sunshine,” Newsom told a news conference.

Florida began a gradual restart of its economy on Monday. In the first phase, retail merchants and restaurants will open, with indoor patronage limited to 25% of capacity. Eateries are also allowed to open outdoor seating with social distancing, and medical practices can resume elective surgeries and procedures.

In Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine was allowing construction and manufacturing to reopen on Monday, and letting office workers return.

 

 

 

The Health 202: Social distancing hasn’t been as effective in stemming U.S. coronavirus deaths as policymakers had hoped.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/05/05/the-health-202-social-distancing-hasn-t-been-as-effective-in-stemming-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-as-policymakers-had-hoped/5eb04b6d88e0fa594778ea5e/

Social distancing isn’t having the effects many had hoped for.

Despite encouraging signs on the nation’s East and West coasts, daily diagnosed cases of the novel coronavirus appear to still be on the rise in about 20 states. A number of rural counties have become unexpected hot spots in recent weeks, including in the Black Belt region of Mississippi and Alabama and in communities throughout Iowa and northern Texas around the Oklahoma panhandle. The country’s overall daily figures of diagnoses and deaths have plateaued, worrying health policymakers as many states move to reopen parts of their economy.

That steep curve of covid-19 cases in March and April isn’t receding the way it rose.

Hot spots are shifting geographically from New York City to areas around the country. For the past month, the figures have hovered around 30,000 diagnosed cases and around 2,000 deaths every day, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb noted in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.

“Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill,” he wrote. “Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread. But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.”

President Trump, who last week suggested the novel coronavirus would disappear even without a vaccine, has now upgraded his prediction of fatalities to as many as 100,000 people. Nonetheless, he said in a New York Post interview yesterday that Americans are “starting to to feel good now. The country’s opening again. We saved millions of lives, I think.”

A leaked government report, still in draft version, predicts a spike in cases and deaths beginning on May 14.

The report, which the Centers for Disease Control quickly disavowed as an unfinished projection, suggests new cases could surge to 200,000 per day and daily American deaths could number more than 3,000 by June 1. That’s far more than what other models predict, but the Johns Hopkins epidemiologist who prepared it told my colleagues William Wan, Lenny Bernstein, Laurie McGinley and Josh Dawsey that 100,000 new cases per day by the end of the month isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb:

University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers:

That’s not the only model showing discouraging figures for the month of May. A model out of the University of Washington, relied upon heavily by the administration, yesterday upgraded its U.S. fatality predictions for the virus’s first wave from 72,433 deaths to 134,475 deaths by Aug. 4.

These aren’t the trends many policymakers had hoped to see, after most Americans spent seven weeks at home under an unprecedented lockdown that has torched the once-booming economy and thrust millions into economic uncertainty. Protests against extended lockdowns are starting to mount around the country, and many governors have assembled and even embarked upon gradual plans to reopen businesses, schools and other public areas.

Nonetheless, a new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll out this morning shows sizable majority of Americans oppose the reopening of restaurants, retail stores and businesses.

Executive producer of 7News WHDH in Boston:

Social distancing did accomplish some important objectives. It undoubtedly saved the health-care system from being crushed by an overwhelming caseload of sick patients all at once.

And the United States is still outranked by half a dozen European countries when it comes to deaths per capita. The U.S. death rate is about 206 deaths per million people. That figure is 538 in Spain, 372 in France, 481 in Italy, 432 in the United Kingdom and 207 in Switzerland, according to a tally by Mother Jones.

But distancing clearly hasn’t been enough — at least the way it’s been carried out — to halt the spread of the highly contagious virus in some places.

New cases and deaths across the whole U.S. are about where they were 20 days ago, my colleague Philip Bump reports. He created a graphic where you can view the three-day averages of cases, deaths and tests performed by state (check it out here).

“The back of the mountain doesn’t look the way the front did,” Philip writes. “We saw a steady, exponential rise in confirmed cases and deaths each day for several weeks. But particularly with daily case totals, the period after the peak nationally has looked more like a plateau than a downward slide.”

Daily cases appear to be rising significantly in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Virginia. They’re also trending upward in Arizona, Colorado, D.C., Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin.

Andy Slavitt, former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services:

“There are so many emerging areas still throughout the country that our group has been trying to wave our hands about,” Marynia Kolak, a health and spatial data science researcher at the University of Chicago, told me.

Kolak and her colleagues are tracking covid-19 cases and deaths at the county level. They’ve been increasingly spotting clusters of the disease in rural areas. Kaiser Family Foundation researchers have also found that rural areas are experiencing a faster growth in cases, even as their total numbers remain far below those seen in urban settings.

One example: Five counties in Minnesota with significant meat-processing plants. State officials said about a quarter of cases reported over the weekend came from those counties.

One is Nobles County, home to a JBS USA pork processing plant in Worthington, with a population of around 22,000. It is scheduled to partially reopen this week, under an order by Trump to keep meat plants open.

The outbreaks in counties with meat-processing plants “illustrates how powerfully situations can change at the community level,” said Jan Malcolm, commissioner of Minnesota’s Department of Health.

Malcolm stressed how hard it is to stem the spread of the virus in these types of facilities.

“These are particularly challenging investigations,” Malcolm said. “Many of the workers involved don’t have phones, don’t provide phone numbers, aren’t answering calls. It’s been a very labor-intensive, shoe-leather kind of an approach.”

 

 

New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-pandemic-update-two-years-70-percent-immunity/

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Recovery Depends on Herd Immunity, Doctor Says

As coronavirus restrictions around the world are being lifted, a new report warns the pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000 people likely won’t be contained for two years. The modeling study from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota also says that about 70% of people need to be immune in order to bring the virus to a halt.

For the study, experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may spread over the coming months and years. Out of the eight past flu pandemics, scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one. Additionally, some had “smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years” after the initial outbreak.

A key factor in their prediction for the current pandemic revolves around herd immunity, which refers to the community-wide resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results when a high percentage of people are immune to it, either through vaccination or prior exposure. 

“The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” the report says. “Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2” — the virus that causes COVID-19 — “60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic.”

It will take time to reach that point, since data from blood tests show only a small fraction of the overall population has been infected so far, and a possible vaccine is still months if not a year or more away. It is not yet clear whether people who’ve recovered from the infection will be immune or how long such protection would last.

The report lays out several possible scenarios, including one in which a larger wave of illnesses may happen in the fall or winter of 2020 and then subsequent smaller waves in 2021. The researchers say this model — similar to the pattern seen in the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic — would “require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.” 

Two other scenarios in the report involve either recurring peaks and valleys of outbreaks, or smaller waves of illness over the next two years.

In any case, the researchers said people must be prepared for “at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically” in different geographic areas.

As the virus continues to circulate among the human population and outbreaks finally start to wane, they say it will likely “synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time.”

 

 

 

U.S. Coronavirus Updates

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-west-virginia-first-case-ac32ce6d-5523-4310-a219-7d1d1dcb6b44.html

COVID-19 in the U.S.

As of May 3, 11pm EDT

Deaths     Confirmed cases

67,682         1,158,040

Kudlow defends claiming U.S. had coronavirus "contained" in ...

 

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on Sunday that despite widespread mitigation efforts, the coronavirus has exhibited “persistent spread” that could mean a “new normal” of 30,000 new cases and over 1,000 deaths a day through the summer.

The big picture: COVID-19 has killed over 66,000 Americans and infected over 1.1 million others in less than three months since the first known death in the U.S., Johns Hopkins data shows.

By the numbers: As states try to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus while easing restrictions, unemployment filings in the U.S. topped 30 million in six weeks, and the number of unemployed could be higher than the weekly figures suggest.

  • Over 175,000 Americans have recovered from the virus and over 6.8 million tests have been conducted in the U.S. as of Sunday.

Catch up quick: The number of deaths in states hit hardest by the coronavirus is well above the normal range, according the CDC.

Lockdown measures: Dozens of states have outlined plans to ease coronavirus restrictions, but the pandemic’s impact on our daily lives, politics, cities and health care will outlast stay-at-home orders.