Category Archives: Medicaid Cuts

July 2025 Actions are the Turning Point for U.S. Healthcare

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Funding, Medicare Cuts, State of the Union, Turning Point • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
July 2025 Actions are the Turning Point for U.S. Healthcare

July 2025 will be the month U.S. healthcare leaders recognize as the industry’s modern turning point. Consider…

  • On July 4, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law setting in motion $960 billion in Medicaid cuts over the decade and massive uncertainty among those most adversely impacted—low income and under-served populations dependent on public programs, 8 to 11 million who used now-suspended marketplace subsidies to buy insurance coverage, and hundreds of state and local health agencies left in funding limbo.
  • On July 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the June Consumer Price Index rose .3% bumping the LTM to 2.7% (lower than LTM of 3.4% for medical services). Prices have edged up.
  • On July 31, President Trump issued an Executive Order to 17 drug companies ordering them to reduce prices on their drugs by September 29 or else. And CMS issued final rules for FY2026 Medicare payments to hospitals, rehab and other providers reflecting increases ranging from 2.5-3.3% effective October 1.
  • And on the same day, the Bureau of Labor issued its July 2025 jobs report that showed a disappointing net gain of 73,000 jobs plus downward revisions for May and June of 258,000 sparking Wall Street anxiety and President Trump to call the results “rigged” before firing BLS head Erika McEntarfer. Note: healthcare added 55,000 in July—the biggest of any sector and more than its 42,000 average monthly increase.

Collectively, these actions reflect rejection of the health industry by the GOP-led Congress.

It follows 15 years of support vis a vis the Affordable Care Act (2010) and pandemic recovery emergency funding (2020-2021). In that 15-year period, the bigger players got bigger in each sector, investment of private equity in each sector became more prevalent, costs increased, affordability for consumers and employers decreased, and the public’s overall satisfaction with the health system declined precipitously.

For the four major players in the system, the passage of the “big, beautiful bill” was a disappointment. Their primary concerns were not addressed:

  • Physicians wanted relief from annual payment cuts by Medicare preferring reimbursement tied directly to medical inflation. And insurer’ prior authorization and provider reimbursement was a top issue. Status: Not much has changed though adjustments are promised.
  • Hospitals wanted continuation of federal Medicaid funding, protection of the 340B drug purchasing program, rejection of site-neutral payment policies, higher Medicare reimbursement and relief from insurer prior authorization frustrations. Status: Medicaid funding is being cut forcing the issue for states. CMS payment increases for 2026 are lower than operating cost increases. Insurers have promised prior-auth relief but details about how and when are unknown. And Congress posture toward hospitals seems harsh: price transparency compliance, safety event reporting, and cost concerns are bipartisan issues.
  • Insurers wanted sustained funding for state Medicaid and Medicare Advantage programs and federal pushback against drug prices and hospital consolidation. Status: Congress appears sympathetic to enrollee complaints and anxious to address insurer “waste, fraud and abuse” including overpayments in Medicare Advantage.
  • Drug companies oppose “Most Favored Nation” pricing and want protections of their patents and limits on how much insurers, pharmacy benefits managers, wholesalers, online distributors and other “middlemen” earn at their expense. Status: to date, little action despite sympathetic rhetoric by lawmakers. Status: to date, Congress has taken nominal action beyond the Inflation Reduction Act (2022) though 23 states have passed legislation requiring PBMs, insurers and manufacturers to disclose drug prices and 12 states have established Prescription Drug Affordability Boards to monitor prices.

My take:

The landscape for U.S. healthcare is fundamentally changed as a result of the July actions noted above. It is compounded by public anxiety about the economy at home and global tensions abroad.

These July actions were a turning point for the industry: responding appropriately will require fresh ideas and statesmanship. Transparency about prices, costs, incentives and performance is table stakes. Leaders dedicated to the greater good will be the difference.

Expect More Hunger in America with Big New Rips to the Safety Net

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Policy, Healthcare Cuts, Healthcare Reform, Hunger, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Eligibility, Medicaid Funding, Medicaid Work Requirements, Public Good, Public Health, Public Interest, Public Welfare, Safety Net, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/expect-more-hunger-in-america-with

The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes deep cuts to the Medicaid program, also puts the food assistance that 41 million low-income Americans rely on in jeopardy. Many of the families currently getting food provided by  the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) stand to lose that support.  

SNAP may well disappear for some families as the federal government moves to trim it. “The cuts are massive and extremely cruel when families need more support, not less,” says Signe Anderson, senior director of nutrition advocacy, at the Tennessee Justice Center in Nashville. 

Government food assistance was established during the Great Depression, but it wasn’t until 1977 that the program became more accessible when the requirement that recipients had to pay for a portion of their food stamps was ended. Throughout its history, foes of the program have tried to dismantle it and may have succeeded as a result of provisions in the bill President Trump signed on July 4. 

The new legislation calls for cutting spending for food stamps by $186 billion through 2034. “Everyone on food stamps will be affected in some way, and many will lose benefits,” Anderson says. “I don’t think the Congress understands the level of necessity in the community for food, health care and mental health treatment, some for the rest of their lives.” 

One major change is being made to work requirements that have historically been part of the Medicaid program, which is administered and partially funded by the states. Anderson points out that under the new arrangements, participants may find the task of enrolling and staying enrolled more onerous. “We see a lot of people cut off already because too many life circumstances make it difficult for them to meet work requirements.”  

Indeed when you look at the changes to SNAP, the first word that might come to mind is ‘draconian.’

To receive benefits those new to the program, and those already on it who are between 55 and 64 and do not have dependent children or who have children 14 and older, will have to prove they work. Or they will have to volunteer at least 20 hours a week or enroll in training programs. Parents of school-aged children will now be required to work.

Some five million people, including about 800,000 children and about a half million adults who are 65 and older, could lose their food benefits.  

The programs the new law targets have been a lifeline for some. Nikole Ralls, a 43-year-old woman in Nashville, who was once a drug addict but now counsels others who need help, says, “I got my life turned around because of Medicaid and SNAP.”  

In a recent memo to state agencies administering the SNAP program, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she was concerned about what was described as abuse of the waiver system by states, noting that the new approach for the SNAP program would prioritize work, education and volunteering over what the department characterized as “idleness and excessive spending.” 

Anderson said, “The public doesn’t understand what hunger looks like and are misinformed about how well-run and streamlined the SNAP program is.”   

“Most of the people who can, do work.  We have parents working two and three jobs,” Anderson said. For families in this predicament food banks, which have become default grocery stores, may be of little help.  They, too, are stretched thin. The Wall Street Journal reported food banks across the country are already straining under rising demand, and some worry there won’t be enough food to meet demand.

Gut Punches for Healthcare and Hospitals

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Bankruptcy, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Deferred Healthcare, Financially Distressed, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Health System, Healthcare Industry, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Medicaid Cuts, Medical Debt, Out of Pocket Expenses, Politics, Profit, Profit Margin, Profit Model, Profit Motive, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Shareholder Expectations, Sign of the Times, Underinsured, Uninsured, Wall Street • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
Gut Punches for Healthcare and Hospitals: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the CMS Proposed Rule

The healthcare industry is still licking its wounds from $1 trillion in federal funding cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed into law July 4.

Adding insult to injury, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid services issued a 913-page proposed rule last Tuesday that includes unwelcome changes especially troublesome for hospitals i.e. adoption of site neutral payments, expansion of hospital price transparency requirements, reduction of inpatient-only services, acceleration of hospital 340B discount repayment obligations and more.

The combination of the two is bad news for healthcare overall and hospitals especially: the timing is precarious:

  • Economic uncertainty: Economists believe a recession is less likely but uncertainty about tariffs, fear about rising inflation, labor market volatility a housing market slowdown and speculation about interest rates have capital markets anxious. Healthcare is capital intense: the impact of the two in tandem with economic uncertainty is unsettling.
  • Consumer spending fragility: Consumer spending is holding steady for the time being but housing equity values are dropping, rents are increasing, student loan obligations suspended during Covid are now re-activated, prices for hospital and physicians are increasing faster than other necessities and inflation ticked up slightly last month. Consumer out-of-pocket spending for healthcare products and services is directly impacted by purchases in every category.
  • Heightened payer pressures: Insurers and employers are expecting double-digit increases for premiums and health benefits next year blaming their higher costs on hospitals and drugs, OBBBA-induced insurance coverage lapses and systemic lack of cost-accountability. For insurers, already reeling from 2023-2024 financial reversals, forecasts are dire. Payers will heighten pressure on healthcare providers—especially hospitals and specialists—as a result.

Why healthcare appears to have borne the brunt of the funding cuts in the OBBBA is speculative: 

Might a case have been made for cuts in other departments? Might healthcare programs other than Medicaid have been ripe for “waste, fraud and abuse” driven cuts? Might technology-driven administrative costs reductions across the expanse of federal and state government been more effective than DOGE- blunt experimentation?

Healthcare is 18% of the GDP and 28% of total federal spending: that leaves room for cuts in other industries.

Why hospitals, along with nursing homes and public health programs, are likely to bear the lion’s share of OBBBA’ cut fallout and CMS’ proposed rule disruptions is equally vexing.  Might the high-profile successes of some not-for-profit hospital operators have drawn attention? Might Congress have been attentive to IRS Form 990 filings for NFP operators and quarterly earnings of investor-owned systems and assume hospital finances are OK? Might advocacy efforts to maintain the status quo with facility fees, 340B drug discounts, executive compensation et al been overshadowed by concerns about consolidation-induced cost increases and disregard for affordability? Hospital emergency rooms in rural and urban communities, nursing homes, public health programs and many physicians will be adversely impacted by the OBBBA cuts: the impact will vary by state. What’s not clear is how much.

My take:

Having read both the OBBBA and CMS proposed rules and observed reactions from industry, two things are clear to me:

The antipathy toward the healthcare industry among the public  and in Congress played a key role in passage of the OBBBA and regulatory changes likely to follow. 

Polls show three-fourths of likely voters want to see transformational change to healthcare and two-thirds think the industry is more concerned with its profit over their care: these views lend to hostile regulatory changes. The public and the majority of elected officials think the industry prioritizes protection of the status quo over obligations to serve communities and the greater good.

The result: winners and losers in each sector, lack of continuity and interoperability, runaway costs and poor outcomes.

No sector in healthcare stands as the surrogate for the health and wellbeing of the population. There are well-intended players in each sector who seek the moral high ground for healthcare, but their boards and leaders put short-term sustainability above long-term systemness and purpose. That void needs to be filled.

The timing of these changes is predictably political. 

Most of the lower-cost initiatives in both the OBBBA changes and CMS proposals carry obligations to commence in 2026—in time for the November 2026 mid-term campaigns. Most of the results, including costs and savings, will not be known before 2028 or after. They’re geared toward voters inclined to think healthcare is systemically fraudulent, wasteful and self-serving.

And they’re just the start: officials across the Departments of Health and Human Services, Justice, Commerce, Labor and Veterans Affairs will add to the lists.

Buckle up.

The Perfect Storm has Hit U.S. Healthcare

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Insurance Industry, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Lobbyist, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Perfect Storm, Profit, Profit Margin, Profit Motive • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
The Perfect Storm has Hit U.S. Healthcare

The perfect storm has hit U.S. healthcare:

  • The “Big Beautiful Budget Bill” appears headed for passage with cuts to Medicaid and potentially Medicare likely elements.
  • The economy is slowing, with a mild recession a possibility as consumer confidence drops, the housing market slows and uncertainty about tariffs mounts.
  • And partisan brinksmanship in state and federal politics has made political hostages of public and rural health safety net programs as demand increases for their services.

Last Wednesday, amidst mounting anxiety about the aftermath of U.S. bunker-bombing in Iran and escalating conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released its report on healthcare spending in 2024 and forecast for 2025-2033:

“National health expenditures are projected to have grown 8.2% in 2024 and to increase 7.1% in 2025, reflecting continued strong growth in the use of health care services and goods.

During the period 2026–27, health spending growth is expected to average 5.6%, partly because of a decrease in the share of the population with health insurance (related to the expiration of temporarily enhanced Marketplace premium tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022) and partly because of an anticipated slowdown in utilization growth from recent highs. Each year for the full 2024–33 projection period, national health care expenditure growth (averaging 5.8%) is expected to outpace that for the gross domestic product (GDP; averaging 4.3%) and to result in a health share of GDP that reaches 20.3% by 2033 (up from 17.6% in 2023) …

Although the projections presented here reflect current law, future legislative and regulatory health policy changes could have a significant impact on the projections of health insurance coverage, health spending trends, and related cost-sharing requirements, and they thus could ultimately affect the health share of GDP by 2033.”

As has been the case for 20 years, spending for healthcare grew faster than the overall economy in 2024. And it is forecast to continue through 2033:

 2024Baseline2033Forecast% Nominal Chg.2024-2033
National Health Spending$5,263B$8,585B+63.1%
US Population337,2M354.8M+5.2%
Per capita personal health spending$13,227$20,559+55.7%
Per capita disposable personal income$21,626$31,486+45.6%
NHE as % of US GDP18.0%20.3%+12.8%

In its defense, industry insiders call attention to the uniqueness of the business of healthcare:

  • ‘Healthcare is a fundamental need: the health system serves everyone.’
  • ‘Our aging population, chronic disease prevalence and socioeconomic disparities are drive increased demand for the system’s products and services.’
  • ‘The public expects cutting edge technologies, modern facilities, effective medications and the best caregivers and they’re expensive.’
  • ‘Burdensome regulatory compliance costs contribute to unnecessary spending and costs.’

And they’re right.

Critics argue the U.S. health system is the world’s most expensive but its results (outcomes) don’t justify its costs.  They acknowledge the complexity of the industry but believe “waste, fraud and abuse” are pervasive flaws routinely ignored. And they remind lawmakers that the health economy is profitable to most of its corporate players (investor-owned and not-for-profits) and its executive handsomely compensated.

Healthcare has been hit by a perfect storm at a time when a majority of the public associates it more with corporatization and consolidation than caring. This coalition includes Gen Z adults who can’t afford housing, small employers who’ve cut employee coverage due to costs and large, self-insured employers who trying to navigate around the 10-20% employee health cost increase this year, state and local governments grappling with health costs for their public programs and many more. They’re tired of excuses and think the health system takes advantage of them.

As a percentage of the nation’s GDP and household discretionary spending, healthcare will continue to be disproportionately higher and increasingly concerning.  Spending will grow faster than other industries until lawmakers impose price controls and other mechanisms like at least 8 states have begun already.

Most insiders are taking cover and waiting ‘til the storm passes. Some are content to cry foul and blame others. Others will emerge with new vision and purpose centered on reality.

Storm damage is rarely predictable but always consequential. It cannot be ignored. The Perfect has Hit U.S. healthcare. Its impact is not yet known but is certain to be a game changer.

Congress Could Force Patients in Rural America To Make Dire Medical Care Choices

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Bankruptcy, Financial Distress, Financial Instability, Financial Stewardship, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Rural Health, Rural Hospital, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment
https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/congress-could-force-patients-in?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=255152&post_id=166944373&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59t65&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

New Medicaid funding rules proposed by Congress this week would halt efforts at the state level to better fund rural hospitals and deliver services to the most vulnerable populations in those areas. You can be certain that the administrators and staff of those hospitals, as well as leaders of the communities they serve, are watching closely to see if the cuts are enacted. 

Lawmakers at the federal level are trying to make deeper cuts to Medicaid spending in an effort to lower the amount of deficit spending that would be created by President Trump’s spending plan. Trump has dubbed the plan his “big beautiful bill.” 

Feds Would Strip Rural Hospitals of Lifeline Funds

Republican members of the Senate Finance Committee this week released their version of the bill that would drain funding for rural hospitals, which rely heavily on Medicaid funds to treat patients. It’s estimated that 25 to 40 percent of services provided by such hospitals are funded by Medicaid.

The federal government and states share the up-front medical costs for Medicaid patients. The federal government then reimburses states up to 50 percent of their Medicaid spending every year.

Many states fund their portion of the cost by taxing entities that provide those services to Medicaid patients.

The latest proposal in Congress would not only restrict how many patients could receive benefits, but it would also stop states from implementing those provider tax programs to help fund Medicaid services provided to residents.

At the federal level, the thinking is that if states keep taxing providers to fund Medicaid services, then the federal government will have to keep reimbursing states a portion of those costs. 

The downside to that is many experts, along with several Republicans in Congress, namely Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Josh Hawley of Missouri, have predicted it will decimate rural hospitals.

West Virginia Republican Sen. Jim Justice went a step further, saying that the plan to limit states’ use of provider taxes will “really hurt a lot of folks.” Despite that statement, Justice said he is OK with the freeze.

State Lawmakers Sound the Alarm

There are 39 states with at least three or more provider taxes used to help fund Medicaid services. Alaska is the only state with no such tax.

Some states, such as Ohio, have set up a new rural hospital fund using provider taxes to help rural hospitals deliver Medicaid services to patients.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and the Republican-led state legislature set up a pilot program called the Rural Ohio Hospital Tax Pilot Program. The measure would allow counties to levy a tax on their local hospitals that would then be used to fund Medicaid services.

DeWine said the pilot program would help ease the financial stress rural hospitals face in Ohio. The plan contained in Ohio House Bill 96 has the blessing of the Ohio Hospital Association.

That state fund reportedly would be neutered by the federal proposal. Ohio has at least three different provider taxes.  

A group of Republican state lawmakers recently sent a letter to their federal counterparts pleading with them to remove the bill language because it would “torpedo” plans to keep rural hospitals functioning.

The American Hospital Association, a 130-year-old trade group of more than 5,000 hospitals and health care providers, this month released the impact on rural hospitals if this plan went into effect.

 More than $50 billion would be lost by 2034, and more than 1.8 million rural Americans would lose health benefits.

Kentucky residents would be impacted the most, with 143,000 losing benefits, followed by 135,000 Californians. More than 86,000 Ohioans would lose Medicaid coverage under the plan by 2034, making it the third most impacted state.

To blunt the effects of the cuts, Collins reportedly is proposing the establishment of a $100 billion relief fund that could provide financial support to affected providers, rural hospitals in particular. Whether that or a similar but smaller fund will wind up in the final draft of the legislation apparently will be decided this weekend. Meanwhile, the Senate parliamentarian has ruled against many of the provisions of the Senate version of the bill, including the Finance Committee’s provider tax framework, which puts the whole thing in flux.

Senate leaders say they plan a long series of votes on amendments of the bill on Sunday. The “vote-arama” likely will go on throughout Sunday night and into Monday. If the Senate does pass its version of the bill, it will have to go back to the House. Lawmakers are under a self-imposed deadline to get the legislation to Trump by the July 4 holiday.

Federal Medicaid cuts imperil rural hospitals and residents

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Bankruptcy, Deferred Healthcare, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Eligibility, Medicaid Funding, Nursing Home, Rural Health, Rural Hospital • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://www.ruralhealth.us/blogs/2025/06/federal-medicaid-cuts-imperil-rural-hospitals-and-residents-new-report-finds

Medicaid serves as a vital source of health insurance coverage for Americans living in rural areas, including children, parents, seniors, individuals with disabilities, and pregnant women. Congressional lawmakers are currently considering more than $800 billion in cuts to the Medicaid program, which would reduce Medicaid funding and terminate coverage for vulnerable Americans.

The proposed changes would also result in a significant reduction in Medicaid reimbursement that could result in rural hospital closures.

The National Rural Health Association recently partnered with experts from Manatt Health to shed light on the potential impacts of those cuts on rural residents and the hospitals that care for them over the next decade.

The report, Estimated Impact on Medicaid Enrollment and Hospital Expenditures in Rural Communities, provides insight into the impact on rural America at a critical moment in the Congressional debate over the future of the reconciliation package.

NRHA held a press conference on June 24 that can be accessed with passcode MBTZf4$H. NRHA chief policy officer Carrie Cochran-McClain discussed the findings with Manatt Health partner and former deputy administrator at CMS Cindy Mann and the real world implications of the details of this report with three NRHA member hospital and health system leaders

Report findings provide insight into the impact on rural America at a critical moment in the Congressional debate over the future of the reconciliation package.

The report shows the significant impact from coverage losses that rural communities will face given:

  • Medicaid plays an outsized role in rural America, covering a larger share of children and adults in rural communities than in urban ones.
  • Nearly half of all children and one in five adults in small towns and rural areas rely on Medicaid or CHIP for their health insurance.
  • Medicaid covers nearly one-quarter of women of childbearing age and finances half of all births in these communities.

According to Manatt’s estimates, rural hospitals will lose 21 cents out of every dollar they receive in Medicaid funding due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Total cuts in Medicaid reimbursement for rural hospitals—including both federal and state funds—over the ten-year period outlined in the bill would reach almost $70 billion for hospitals in rural areas. 

Reductions in Medicaid funding of this magnitude would likely accelerate rural hospital closures and reduce access to care for rural residents, exacerbating economic hardship in communities where hospitals are major employers.

As a key insurer in rural communities, Medicaid provides a financial lifeline for rural health care providers — including hospitals, rural health clinics, community health centers, and nursing homes—that are already facing significant financial distress. These cuts may lead to more hospitals and other rural facility closures, and for those rural hospitals that remain open, lead to the elimination or curtailment of critical services, such as obstetrics.

“Medicaid is a substantial source of federal funds in rural communities across the country. The proposed changes to Medicaid will result in significant coverage losses, reduce access to care for rural patients, and threaten the viability of rural facilities,” said Alan Morgan, CEO of the National Rural Health Association.

“It’s very clear that Medicaid cuts will result in rural hospital closures resulting in loss of access to care for those living in rural America.”

A media briefing will be held on Tuesday, June 24, from noon to 1:00 PM EST to provide more information about the analysis. This event will feature representatives from NRHA, Manatt Health, and rural hospital leaders across the country. Questions may be submitted in advance, as well as during the press conference. To register for and join the media briefing, click on the Zoom link here.

Please reach out to NRHA’s Advocacy Team with any questions.

About the National Rural Health Association

NRHA is a non-profit membership organization that provides leadership on rural health issues with tens of thousands of members nationwide. Our membership includes nearly every component of rural America’s health care, including rural community hospitals, critical access hospitals, doctors, nurses, and patients. We work to improve rural America’s health needs through government advocacy, communications, education, and research. Learn more about the association at RuralHealth.US.

About Manatt Health

Manatt Health is a leading professional services firm specializing in health policy, health care transformation, and Medicaid redesign. Their modeling draws upon publicly available state data including Medicaid financial management report data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, enrollment and expenditure data from the Medicaid Budget and Expenditure System, and data from the Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission. The Manatt Health Model is tailored specifically to rural health and has been reviewed in consultation with states and other key stakeholders.

What’s at stake from GOP megabill’s coverage losses

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, Bankruptcy, Chronic Care Management, Chronic Condition Management, Chronic Conditions, Chronic Diseases, Deferred Healthcare, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, High Deductible Health Plans, High Drug Prices, High Premiums, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medical Debt, Out of Pocket Expenses, Public Health, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , , , • Leave a comment

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/01/real-cost-health-coverage-losses

Nearly 12 million people would lose their health insurance under President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” an erosion of the social safety net that would lead to more unmanaged chronic illnesses, higher medical debt and overcrowding of hospital emergency departments.

Why it matters: 

The changes in the Senate version of the bill could wipe out most of the health coverage gains made under the Affordable Care Act and slash state support for Medicaid and SNAP.

  • “We are going back to a place of a lot of uncompensated care and a lot of patchwork systems for people to get care,” said Ellen Montz, a managing director at Manatt Health who oversaw the ACA federal marketplace during the Biden administration.

The big picture: 

The stakes are huge for low-income and working-class Americans who depend on Medicaid and subsidized ACA coverage.

  • Without health coverage, more people with diabetes, heart disease, asthma and other chronic conditions will likely go without checkups and medication to keep their ailments in check.
  • Those who try to keep up with care after losing insurance will pay more out of pocket, driving up medical debt and increasing the risk of eviction, food insecurity and depleted savings.
  • Uninsured patients have worse cancer survival outcomes and are less likely to get prenatal care. Medicaid also is a major payer of behavioral health counseling and crisis intervention.

Much of the coverage losses from the bill will come from new Medicaid work reporting requirements, congressional scorekeepers predict. Work rules generally will have to be implemented for coverage starting in 2027, but could be earlier or later depending on the state.

  • Past experiments with Medicaid work rules show that many eligible people fall through the cracks verifying they’ve met the requirements or navigating new state bureaucracies.
  • Often, people don’t find out they’ve lost coverage until they try to fill a prescription or see their doctor. States typically provide written notices, but contacts can be out of date.
  • Nearly 1 in 3 adults who were disenrolled from Medicaid after the COVID pandemic found out they no longer had health insurance only when they tried to access care, per a KFF survey.

Zoom out: 

The Medicaid and ACA changes will also affect people who keep their coverage.

  • The anticipated drop-off in preventive care means the uninsured will be more likely to go to the emergency room when they get sick. That could further crowd already bursting ERs, resulting in even longer wait times.
  • Changes to ACA markets in the bill, along with the impending expiration of enhanced premium subsidies, may drive healthier people to drop out, Montz said, skewing the risk pool and driving up premiums for remaining enrollees.
  • States will likely have to make further cuts to their safety-net programs if the bill passes in order to keep state budgets functioning with less federal Medicaid funding.

The other side: 

The White House and GOP proponents of the bill say the health care changes will fight fraud, waste and abuse, and argue that coverage loss projections are overblown.

Reality check: 

Not all insurance is created equally, and many people with health coverage still struggle to access care. But the bill’s impact would take the focus off ways to improve the health system, Montz said.

  • “This is taking us catastrophically backward, where we don’t get to think about the things that we should be thinking about how to best keep people healthy,” she said.

The bottom line: 

The changes will unfold against a backdrop of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s purported focus on preventive care and ending chronic illness in the U.S.

  • But American health care is an insurance-based system, said Manatt Health’s Patricia Boozang. Coverage is what unlocks access.
  • Scrapping millions of people’s health coverage “seems inconsistent with the goal of making America healthier,” she said.

The Summer of 2025 for U.S. Healthcare: What Organizations should Expect

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Budget Process, Chronic Care Management, Chronic Conditions, Chronic Diseases, Economic Indicators, Economic Outlook, Expectations, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid Cuts, Medicare Sequestration, Politics, Underinsured, Uninsured • Tagged , , • Leave a comment
The Summer of 2025 for U.S. Healthcare: What Organizations should Expect

Last Thursday, the Make America Healthy Again Commission released its 68-page report “Making America’s Children Healthy Again Assessment” featuring familiar themes—the inadequacy of attention to chronic disease by the health system, the “over-medicalization” of patient care vis a vis prescription medicines et al, the contamination of the food-supply by harmful ingredients, and more.

HHS Secretary Kennedy, EPA Administrator Zeldin and Agriculture Secretary Rollins pledged war on the corporate healthcare system ‘that has failed the public’ and an all-of-government approach to remedies for burgeoning chronic care needs.

Also Thursday, the House of Representatives passed its budget reconciliation bill by a vote of 215-214. The 1000-page bill cuts federal spending by $1.6 trillion (including $698 billion from Medicaid) and adds $2.3 trillion (CBO estimate/$3.4 to $5 trillion per Yale Budget Lab) to the national deficit over the next decade. It now goes to the Senate where changes to reduce federal spending to pre-pandemic level will be the focus.

With a 53-37 advantage and 22 of the 36 Senate seats facing mid-term election races in November, 2026, the Senate Republican version of the “Big Beautiful Bill” will include more spending cuts while pushing more responsibility to states for funding and additional cuts. The gap between the House and Senate versions will be wider than currently anticipated by House Republicans potentially derailing the White House promise of a final Big Beautiful Bill by July 4.

And, over the last week and holiday weekend, the President announced a new 25% tariff on Apple devices manufactured in India and new tariffs targeting the EU; threatened cuts to federal grants to Harvard and cessation of its non-citizen student enrollment, a ‘get-tougher’ policy on Russia to pressure an end of its Ukraine conflict, and a pledge to Americans on Memorial that it will double down on ‘peace thru strength’  in its Make America Great Again campaign.

These have 2 things in common:

1-They’re incomplete. None is a finished product.

The MAHA Commission, working with the Departments of Health & Human Services, Interior and Agriculture, is tasked to produce another report within 90 days to provide more details about a plan. The FY26 budgeting process is wrought with potholes—how to satisfy GOP deficit hawks vs. centrist lawmakers facing mid-term election, how to structure a bill that triggers sequestration cuts to Medicare (projected $490 billion/10 yrs. per CBO), how to quickly implement Medicaid work requirements and marketplace enrollment cuts that could leave insurance coverage for up to 14 million in limbo, and much more.  And the President’s propensity to “flood the zone” with headline-grabbing Truth Social tweets, Executive Orders and provocative rhetoric on matters at home and abroad will keep media occupied and healthcare spending in the spotlight.

2-They play to the MAGA core.

The MAGA core is primarily composed of older, white, Christian men driven by a belief that the United States has lost its exceptionalism through WOKE policies i.e. DEI in workplaces and government, open borders, globalization and excessive government spending and control. In the 2024 Presidential election, the MAGA core expanded incrementally among Black, Hispanic, and younger voters whose concerns about food, energy and housing prices prompted higher-than expected turnout. The MAGA core believes in meritocracy, nationalism, smaller government, lower taxes, local control and free-market policies that encourage private investment in the economy. The core is price sensitive.

The health system per se is not a concern but it’s the affordability and lack of price transparency are. They respect doctors and frontline caregivers but think executives are overpaid and prone to self-promotion. And the MAGA core think lawmakers have been complicit in the system’s lack of financial accountability largely beneficial to elites.

Looking ahead to the summer, a “Big Beautiful Bill” will pass with optics that allow supporters to claim fiscal constraint and lower national debt and opponents to decry insensitive spending cuts and class warfare against low-and-middle-class households.

Federal cuts to Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) will be prominent targets in both groups—one a portrayal of waste, fraud and abuse and the other tangible evidence of societal inequity and lack of moral purpose. Each thinks the other void of a balanced perspective. Each thinks the health system is underperforming and in need of transformational change but agreement about how to get there unclear.

As MAHA promotes its agenda, Congress passes a budget and MAGA advances its anti-establishment agenda vis a vis DOGE et al, healthcare operators will be in limbo. The dust will settle somewhat this summer, but longer-term bets will be modified for most organizations as compliance risks change, state responsibilities expand, capital markets react and Campaign 2026 unfolds.

And in most households, concern about the affordability of medical care will elevate as federal and state funding cuts force higher out of pocket costs on consumers and demand for lower prices.

The summer will be busy for everyone in healthcare.

PS: Changes in the housing market are significant for healthcare: 36% of the CPI is based on shelter vs. 8% for medical services & products, 14% for food and 6% for energy/transportation. While the overall CPI increased 2.3% in the last 12 months, medical services prices increased 3.1%. contributing to heightened price sensitivity and delayed payments.

It has not escaped lawmaker attention: revenue cycle management business practices (debt collection) are being scrutinized in hospitals and community benefit declarations by not-for-profit hospitals re-evaluated. The economics of healthcare are not immune to broader market trends nor is spending for healthcare in households protected from day-to-day fluctuations in prices for other goods and services.

Protect Medicaid For American Families

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, Chronic Care Management, Chronic Condition Management, Chronic Conditions, Chronic Diseases, Long Term Care, Long Term Care Hospital, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medicaid Funding, Mental Health, Mental Health Providers, Nursing Home, Senior Care, Substance Abuse, Veterans, Veterans Administration • Leave a comment
Protect Medicaid for American Families

Medicaid is critical to our nation’s healthcare system, providing necessary care for more than 72 million Americans – including our neighbors and friends.

Who it Affects

Medicaid covers children, seniors in nursing homes, veterans, people with long-term chronic illnesses, those with mental health issues and working families.

The program helps keep Americans healthy at all stages of life, providing healthcare to families in need — especially as the country continues to recover from record-high inflation.

The Problem

Some policymakers are considering Medicaid cuts that would undermine coverage for countless patients and threaten Americans’ access to comprehensive, 24/7 hospital care.

Medicaid covers health services for patients who otherwise wouldn’t be able to pay for care. Coverage of services is essential for hospitals, and helps ensure all Americans have access to high-quality, 24/7 care, no matter where they live. 

Who Medicaid covers

Providing Lifesaving Healthcare Services

Medicaid covers patients with complex and chronic illnesses in need of long-term care, as well as emergency services and prescription coverage.

As the nation faces a growing mental health crisis, Medicaid also ensures millions of Americans — including veterans — have access to mental healthcare and substance abuse services.

Without access to affordable mental healthcare through Medicaid, veterans often lack the long-term support they deserve, and are left to deal with complex health issues years after their service.

The Threat To Rural America

Medicaid funding cuts pose a significant threat to patients in rural areas, who are more likely to suffer from chronic illness compared to their urban counterparts and are more reliant on Medicaid services in turn.

In these areas, where primary care providers are few and far between, hospitals become even more vital sites of care — and in some cases, the only sites of care available.

Rural hospitals, already more likely to be at risk of closure, rely on Medicaid funding to stay open and to continue providing lifesaving care to their patients. Nearly 150 rural hospitals have closed or converted since 2010 alone. Further cuts to care would eliminate a lifeline for Americans across the country — with devastating consequences for rural communities.

The Solution

Cuts to Medicaid funding will create irreparable harm for our nation’s most vulnerable communities, including millions of children, veterans, those with chronic illnesses, seniors in nursing homes, and working families. Medicaid helps provide security to these Americans, keeping them healthy at every stage of life.

Congress should vote against efforts to reduce Medicaid funding and instead focus on policies that strengthen access to 24/7 care, rather than take it away.

The GOP Budget: Tax Cuts for the Wealthy and More Medical Debt for Everyone Else

Posted on by • Posted in 2026 Mid Term Election Issues, 2028 Election Issues, ACA, Bankruptcy, Credit Ratings, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Healthcare Reform, Medicaid, Medicaid Cuts, Medical Debt, Medicare, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Cuts, Pass the Buck, Underinsured, Uninsured • Leave a comment
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The GOP’s reconciliation bill, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (yes, it’s actually called that), is a cruel exercise in slashing benefits for the poor, the elderly, and the sick to free up fiscal space for yet more tax cuts for the rich. Compounding the harm, these benefit cuts are nowhere near enough to pay for the bill’s tax cuts for the wealthy.

Central to this effort are massive cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces that, as I argued in my recent paper, will exacerbate our ongoing medical debt crisis.

The GOP reconciliation package that the Senate and House recently agreed to instructed the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees spending on health-care programs including Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), to identify up to $880 billion in savings over the next 10 years.

Under the rules of the budget reconciliation process, Republicans need to offset any tax cuts they wish to make permanent with an equal dollar value in cuts to spending so as to remain deficit neutral. Trillions of dollars in tax cuts for the wealthier therefore necessitate trillions of dollars in cuts to spending that fall mostly on the social safety net.

Although they did not quite reach that target, the committee still returned a proposed package of deep cuts and changes to Medicaid and to the ACA marketplaces that would reduce federal medical spending by at least $715 billion over 10 years, with about $625 billion in reduced Medicaid spending.1

After public backlash, Republicans seem to have backed off some of their most radical plans for Medicaid (at least for now—one of the challenges of taking health care from people is that it’s terrible politics, so the precise details of the cuts are likely to remain a moving target until the bill passes).

But all options they are close to settling on would still do horrific damage to the well-being of working-class families.

This includes requiring all Medicaid recipients above the federal poverty line to “cost share” by paying (larger) premiums and copayments,2 cutting federal matching to states that provide public health insurance coverage to undocumented and perhaps documented immigrants (on their own dime), and imposing harsh work requirements on “able-bodied adults without dependent children.” This latter provision will cut federal Medicaid spending by roughly $300 billion over 10 years even though the vast majority (92 percent) of nondisabled, non-elderly adult Medicaid recipients are already working, studying full time, or serving as caregivers. This is because work requirements create burdensome reporting requirements to demonstrate compliance that will cause Medicaid recipients who are already employed to lose their insurance as well—blaming the victim for losing their health care, in essence.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the reconciliation bill would decrease Medicaid enrollment by 10.3 million in 2034 (the end of the reconciliation bill budget window).

According to this same analysis, most of these individuals would not obtain other insurance (e.g., through an employer) and would thus become uninsured.

When combined with the bill’s changes to the ACA marketplace and the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits—a wildly successful policy that was introduced as part of the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and one that Republicans have shown no inclination to extend—this would result in an additional 13.7 million uninsured individuals in 2034, a 30 percent increase, according to KFF estimates.

Republicans seem hell-bent on undoing the remarkable progress made in the 15 years since the passage of the ACA in reducing the non-elderly uninsured rate from 17.8 percent in 2010 to roughly 9.5 percent today (plus ça change).

But we’ve seen less focus on how this will affect the problem of underinsurance.

Republicans’ Medicaid cost-sharing requirements, the changes they have proposed to the ACA marketplaces, and their determination to let the ARPA premium tax credit enhancements expire will also worsen the problem of underinsurance, an area where we have made considerably less progress.

Taken together, this will worsen the ongoing medical crisis because medical debt is driven by uninsurance and underinsurance.

Medical debt is, unlike in most other countries, and despite the successes of the ACA, a major problem in the United States. KFF found that 20 million adults (almost 1 in 12) owed “significant” medical debt to a health-care provider.3 This number rises when we consider a more expansive definition of medical debt including credit card balances and bank loans used to pay medical providers. Under that definition, an estimated 41 percent of American adults (~107 million people) carried some form of medical debt and 24 percent of American adults (~62 million people) had medical debt that was past due or that they were unable to pay. Among those with medical debt using this more expansive definition, nearly half (44 percent) reported owing at least $2,500, and about one in eight (12 percent) said they owe $10,000 or more. The poor, the sick, the middle-aged, and Black and Hispanic individuals disproportionately bear the brunt of this problem.

The crisis of medical debt and underinsurance is so widely recognized by Americans that a state attorney general candidate can go viral just by talking about the reality of a GoFundMe health-care system millions of Americans face.

The consequences of all this debt are dire—and reflect a health-care system that heals people physically but leaves many permanently scared financially. In 2022, medical debt (using the narrow definition) made up an estimated 58 percent of all debts that had gone to collections, and 62 percent of bankruptcies were attributed in part to medical debt. Medical debt also damages credit scores, leading to a wide variety of negative impacts on financial well-being that can follow families for years.

A poor credit score means that families may be unable to obtain a mortgage or a car loan or may end up paying much higher interest rates.

Credit scores are commonly used by landlords to screen tenants and by employers as part of a background check during the hiring process. Even for those who manage to maintain their credit after taking on medical debt, there are real costs. For those with limited income and assets, debt service may displace spending on food, clothing, and other essentials, leading to material hardship. It can make savings impossible and limit economic mobility.

Medical debt is a problem largely generated by poor policy decisions including, as I argue in my paper, prioritizing and incentivizing health insurance coverage through the private market rather than through Medicaid and Medicare, which offer comprehensive coverage more cheaply. The problem would rapidly disappear if we could extend comprehensive health insurance coverage to the millions of uninsured and underinsured people who live with the constant risk that a sudden medical event could ruin their finances and constrain their futures.

But rather than fix the problem, the GOP plans to throw millions off Medicaid and saddle those who remain with higher costs and more limited coverage. The results of these poor policy decisions will be more sickness, more debt, and higher costs for everyone in exchange for on-paper “savings.” And all this in service of tax cuts for the wealthy they haven’t even bothered to justify.

If you ask Eleanor

“If the old people cannot afford their medical care under their own Social Security allowances, then the burden is going to fall on their children who are in their earning years. This will mean that just at the time when these children who may be having young children of their own and needing medical care, a young couple will also have to consider shouldering the burden for parents as well. This is not fair, and leads to both the children and the older people not getting full coverage, since both will try to shave a little off their needs in order not to make the burden impossible to carry.”

– Eleanor Roosevelt, My Day (May 23, 1962)