FDA approves abortion pills at retail pharmacies

https://mailchi.mp/ad2d38fe8ab3/the-weekly-gist-january-6-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

Under new guidance released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday, retail pharmacies can now dispense mifepristone, the first in a two-drug sequence for medication abortions. This move follows a December 2021 change that allows mail-order pharmacies to ship prescribed mifepristone, which previously could only be dispensed in-person by approved clinics. The medication will still require a prescription, and will remain highly restricted, or even illegal, in states that have implemented strict abortion bans.

Pharmacies opting to dispense the drug will face requirements that go beyond other medications, such as keeping the identity of the prescribing provider anonymous. Retail pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens each announced plans to become certified to dispense mifepristone in locations where it is legal. 

The Gist: Abortion pills, currently used in used in more than half of pregnancy terminations, are becoming more sought-after in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court ruling overturning the federal right to abortion. This FDA action is the latest move by the Biden administration to expand access to abortion—though its impact will be felt unevenly across states, even with the Department of Justice stating the Postal Service can legally deliver the medications anywhere in the US.

XBB.1.5 variant becomes dominant COVID strain in US

https://mailchi.mp/ad2d38fe8ab3/the-weekly-gist-january-6-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

Surging from less than 5 percent of cases in the first week of December, XBB.1.5 now makes up over 40 percent of all COVID infections in the US. The new variant appears to demonstrate a high level of immune evasion, and is around 40 percent more contagious than the next most virulent strain, though illnesses caused by XBB.1.5 do not seem to be more severe. Weekly rates for new COVID-related hospital admissions are now higher than at any point since February 2022, despite case counts remaining lower than the peak of the summer wave in July 2022 (although it is likely that the vast majority of cases are now identified through home testing, and not reported, making the data unreliable). 

The Gist: While the new variant seems to be less likely to create a COVID spike of the magnitude we experienced last winter, hospitalizations rising faster than case counts bears watching. That’s especially true given the current staffing situation in most hospitals, which makes each COVID admission and each caregiver call-out for illness a cause for concern. 

Only 15 percent of eligible Americans have received the most recent bivalent booster, leaving the population more vulnerable to this and future variants. Plus, additional funding to support the fight against COVID does not seem to be forthcoming from the new Congress. Beset with surges of COVID, flu, and RSV admissions, hospitals must hope that the end of the holiday season brings some relief.

Why are fewer hospital admissions coming from the emergency department?

https://mailchi.mp/ad2d38fe8ab3/the-weekly-gist-january-6-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

At a recent health system retreat, the CFO shared data describing a trend we’ve observed at a number of systems: for the past few months, emergency department (ED) volumes have been up, but the percentage of patients admitted through the ED is precipitously down.

The CFO walked to through a run of data to diagnose possible causes of this “uncoupling” of ED visits and inpatient admissions. Overall, the severity of patients coming to the ED was higher compared to 2019, so it didn’t appear that the ED was being flooded with low-level cases that didn’t merit admission. Apart from the recent spike in respiratory illness brought on by the “tripledemic” of flu, COVID and RSV, there wasn’t a noteworthy change in case mix, or the types of patients and conditions being evaluated in the emergency room. (Fewer COVID patients were admitted compared to 2021, but that wasn’t enough to account for the decline.) The physicians staffing the ED hadn’t changed, so a shift in practice patterns was also unlikely. 
 
A physician leader attending the retreat spoke up from the audience: “I can diagnose this for you. I work in the ED, and the problem is we can’t move them. Patients are sitting in the ED, in hallways, in observation, sometimes for days, because we can’t get a bed on the floor. The whole time we are treating them, and many of them get better, and we’re able to discharge them before a bed frees up.”

With nursing shortages and other staffing challenges, many hospitals have been unable to run at full capacity even if the demand for beds is there. So total admissions may be down, even if the hospital feels like it’s bursting at the seams.

The current staffing crisis not only presents a business challenge, but also adversely impacts patient experience, and makes it more difficult to deliver the highest quality care. A good reminder of the complexity of hospital operations, where strain in one part of the system will quickly impact the performance of other parts of the care delivery continuum.

How the Omnibus spending package impacts healthcare

https://mailchi.mp/ad2d38fe8ab3/the-weekly-gist-january-6-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

While healthcare wasn’t a top priority for lawmakers hammering out the Omnibus bill aimed at keeping the government open through next September, the graphic above outlines the bill’s three greatest areas of impact for providers.

The package reduces the planned 4.5 percent 2023 physician fee schedule cut to two percent, while also extending value-based care bonuses in alternative payment models (albeit at 3.5 percent, instead of five percent). It also delays the $38B Medicare spending cut required by the PAYGO sequester, pushing that cut out two years.

On the telehealth front, the bill extends Medicare’s pandemic-era virtual care flexibilities through 2024, including the “hospital at home” waiver. It also sets April 1, 2023 as the start date of a one-year window for states to reassess Medicaid enrollment, decoupling the start of eligibility redeterminations from the end of the federal COVID public health emergency. Medicaid enrollment grew by 25 percent over the course of the pandemic, but around two-thirds of new enrollees may lose eligibility after redeterminations. 

Overall, the legislation is a mixed bag for providers. The uninsured population is expected to grow, at least in the short term. Physician groups had hopes for a complete reprieve from Medicare pay cuts, and the fact that they didn’t get it may signal growing Congressional hesitancy to intervene with the Medicare physician fee schedule in the future. But the telehealth extensions may encourage other wider adoption of reimbursement by private insurers, bolstering providers’ long-term virtual care investments.

Biden signs omnibus bill into law, reducing physician pay cut

https://mailchi.mp/ad2d38fe8ab3/the-weekly-gist-january-6-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

Late last week, President Biden signed a $1.7T spending package to fund the federal government through next September. While around half the funds are dedicated to defense, some important healthcare items made it into the bill, including a reduction in planned Medicare physician pay cuts and a two-year postponement of the $38B Medicare spending cut required by the PAYGO sequester.

The law also decoupled several measures from the end of the federal COVID public health emergency (PHE), setting April 1st as the start date for states to begin Medicaid eligibility redeterminations, and extending Medicare’s telehealth flexibilities and the Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program through the end of 2024. For more details on these changes, see our graphic below.

The Gist: Medical groups were hoping for more of a reprieve from the Medicare physician fee schedule cuts, but Congress proved unwilling to address concerns over rising practice costs. We’re relieved that Medicare’s new telehealth and hospital at home policies will continue beyond the PHE, given the early interest we’ve seen from the provider community in embracing these new, more consumer-friendly care models.

Once the new Congress finally gets underway, we’re expecting this to be an uneventful two years for federal healthcare legislation, with the emphasis of health policy likely to shift toward states, federal agency rulemaking, and judicial activity.

Wage growth looks healthy but not inflationary

The Goldilocks nature of these jobs numbers is particularly apparent in the wage data.

By the numbers: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in December, and are up 4.6% over the last year. Over the last three months, worker pay rose at a 4.1% annual rate.

  • Wages are rising, but unlike a year ago, the pace is consistent with the economy settling into the 2% inflation that the Fed seeks.
  • For example, there were stretches in 2018 and 2019 that featured wage growth similar to that in Q4 paired with low inflation levels — which meant rising real wages for workers.
  • In other words, current pay growth, if sustained, would help diminish the Fed’s fears of an upward spiral of wages and prices. Also, it sets workers up to see gains in their real compensation, if and when inflation comes down.

The intrigue: It appears that a surge in earnings initially reported in November was a head fake. The Labor Department revised those numbers to show a 0.4% rise in hourly earnings, not the 0.6% first reported.

  • The original figures had been a source of alarm among Fed watchers, suggesting the central bank might need to step up its monetary tightening campaign.

It is a good reminder  for both policymakers and those of us in the media — to not overreact to single-month shifts in any volatile data series.

A superb jobs report

We really liked what we saw in the December jobs report, which made us more optimistic about the possibility the 2023 economy will hold up reasonably well. More details below.

  • Situational awareness: In less optimistic news, the Institute for Supply Management’s survey of service industry activity plunged in December, to 49.6% — down from 56.5% in November. This is the first time the index has been in negative territory since May 2020.

The U.S. labor market is extraordinarily strong, despite gloom-and-doom economic forecasts and high-profile layoffs.

  • That is the takeaway from December numbers, out this morning, that were outstanding in subtle and not-so-subtle ways.

Why it matters: If America’s economy is going to come in for a soft-landing — inflation dissipating without mass unemployment — you would expect to see numbers that look a lot like last month’s.

  • The economy continues to add a healthy number of new jobs, though the pace is moderating. Wages are rising, but not so quickly as to alarm economic policymakers. And more workers are entering the labor force, which — if sustained — could heal labor shortages.
  • The data has positive developments both for American workers — who continue to have abundant job opportunities — and for Fed officials seeking evidence that their inflation-fighting efforts are starting to cool job creation and wage growth to more sustainable rates.

The headline unemployment rate, at 3.5%, matched its lowest levels in decades. If you extend the calculation out a couple more decimal places, University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers points out, it was 3.468%, the lowest since 1969!

  • It fell even as the labor force expanded by 439,000 workers, a welcome development on the supply front after months of little progress. More Americans working means fewer of the labor shortages that have contributed to inflation.
  • An additional 717,000 Americans reported being employed, helping resolve what had been a puzzling disconnect between different sources of labor market data — and in a positive direction.
  • A stunningly low jobless rate might raise some alarm bells at the Fed over the possibility the job market is too tight, and that this could fuel inflation. But the labor force growth and benign wage data (more on that below) may take the edge off those fears.

By the numbers: Employers are still hiring at a rapid pace — 223,000 in December — but slowing from early last year’s unsustainable numbers.

  • The economy has added roughly 247,000 jobs per month on average in the last three months, slower than the 366,000 in the prior three-month stretch, and less than half of the 539,000 jobs added each month in Q1 2022.
  • Evidence of tech layoffs did show up somewhat in the report, with the information sector shedding 5,000 jobs. Temporary help services employment fell by 35,000, the clearest sign employers are paring back demand for workers.
  • But most other sectors, including leisure and hospitality, construction and health care, continued to add jobs.

The bottom line: If we keep getting numbers like these, 2023 may not be such a rough year for workers after all.

Hospitals average 100% staff turnover every 5 years — Here’s what that costs

Hospitals have been paying astronomical prices for staff turnover, according to the “2022 NSI National Health Care Retention & RN Staffing Report.”

It covers 589,901 healthcare workers and 166,087 registered nurses from 272 facilities and 32 states. Participants were asked to report data on turnover, retention, vacancy rates, recruitment metrics and staffing strategies from January to December 2021. 

The survey found a wide range of helpful figures for understanding the financial fallout of one of healthcare’s hardest labor disruptions:

  • The average hospital lost $7.1 million in 2021 to higher turnover rates.
  • The average hospital loses $5.2 to $9 million on RN turnover yearly.
  • The average turnover cost for a staff RN is $46,100, up more than 15 percent from the 2020 average.
  • The average hospital can save $262,300 per year for each percentage point it drops from its RN turnover rate.
  • To improve margins, hospitals need to control labor costs by decreasing dependence on travel and agency staff, but only 22.7 percent anticipate being able to do so.
  • For every 20 travel RNs eliminated, a hospital can save $4.2 million on average.

In the past 5 years, the average hospital turned over 100.5 percent of its workforce:

  • In 2021, hospitals set a goal of reducing turnover by 4.8 percent. Instead, it increased 6.4 percent and ranged from 5.1 percent to 40.8 percent. The current average hospital turnover rate nationally is 25.9 percent, according to the report.
  • While 72.6 percent of hospitals have a formal nurse retention strategy, less than half of those (44.5 percent) have a measurable goal.
  • Overall, 55.5 percent of hospitals do not have a measurable nurse retention goal.
  • Retirement is the number four reason staff RNs leave, and it is expected to remain a primary driver through 2030. More than half (52.8 percent) of hospitals today have a strategy to retain senior nurses. In 2018, only 21.6 percent had one.

Historically, RN turnover has trended below the hospital average across all staff. For the first time since conducting the survey, this is no longer true: 

  • In the past five years, the average hospital turned over 95.7 percent of its RN workforce.
  • Close to a third (31.0 percent) of all newly hired RNs left within a year, with first year turnover accounting for 27.7 percent of all RN separations. Given the projected surge in retirements, expect to see the more tenured groups edge up creating an inverted bell curve.
  • Operating room RNs continue to be the toughest to recruit, while labor and delivery RNs are trending easier to recruit than in the year prior.
  • Hospitals are experiencing a dramatically higher RN vacancy rate (17 percent) compared to last year’s rate of 9.9 percent.
  • The vast majority (81.3 percent) reported a vacancy rate higher than 10 percent.